After bad transitioned to worse last weekend at Wisconsin, Purdue now heads to Illinois, where the Illini are enjoying a strong season.

Our GoldandBlack.com staff predictions …

MIKE CARMIN, CONTRIBUTOR

Overall Thought: New play-caller last week. New quarterback this week. Ryan Browne takes over quarterback duties since starter Hudson Card is sidelined by an injury. Can the struggling offense find some firepower to jumpstart the season? Browne will be throwing to the same receivers who struggle to find open spaces but may be featured more in the run game. 

*The* Key To The Game: An early touchdown and lead might be the boost the Boilermakers need.

Your Pick To Click (offense): Reggie Love III. Facing former teammates provides a spark.

Your Pick To Click (defense): Kyndrich Breedlove. Staying with the hot hand.

Spiciest Take: Would Purdue fare any better in the “Project Rudy” league? 

Predicted Score: Illinois 31, Purdue 11

TOM DIENHART, GOLDANDBLACK.COM

Overall Thought: You know how they say “things are never as bad as they seem”? Well, they are as bad as they seem.

*The* Key To The Game: How about just competing for four quarters? That would be a start.

Your Pick To Click (offense): C Gus Hartwig. The “Admiral” is one Boilermaker you know will show up.

Your Pick To Click (defense): CB Kyndrich Breedlove. Have to pick someone. Let’s go with Mr. 2 INTs.

Spiciest Take: Bret Bielema won’t take a knee late, opting to add an unnecessary TD. Why? Because he can.

Predicted Score: Illinois 45, Purdue 0. 

ALAN KARPICK, GOLDANDBLACK.COM

Overall Thought: An unprecedented bad stretch for Purdue football gets no easier as its team leader and quarterback will not play.

*The* Key To The Game: Starting fast. Rinse and repeat on this, but Purdue needs something good to happen to it in the first 15 minutes. Illinois is going places this season and owes the Boilermakers a spanking after last year’s blowout loss to the Gold and Black. I can’t imagine many scenarios where this is competitive in the fourth quarter.

Your Pick To Click (offense): Reggie Love III. He will be extra jacked up for his return to home territory. With quarterback Ryan Browne at the helm, one would think Purdue will push to run the ball.

Your Pick To Click (defense): Kydran Jenkins. He can make big plays on the defense. He may get lots of opportunities late Saturday afternoon. 

Spiciest take: Purdue will reach the red zone on its first offensive possession? I don’t have much in the spiciest take department.

Predicted Score: Illinois 34, Purdue  14

JORDAN JONES, CONTRIBUTOR

Overall Thought: Players and coaches love to claim they ignore outside noise, but there’s simply no ignoring it when it’s this loud. After four straight losses of 59, 17, 18 and 46 points, how much juice does this Purdue team have left?

*The* Key To The Game: Purdue cannot play from behind. Will the pressure get to Illinois if Purdue can create an early spark? Illinois has defeated Purdue just once since 2015.

Your Pick To Click (offense): Reggie Love III. He’ll get the chance to face his former teammates, and he’d undoubtedly love to rip off a big run or two.

Your Pick To Click (defense): Dillon Thieneman. Purdue desperately needs big plays. After he picked off six passes as a freshman, he still awaits his first of 2024. He gets it on Saturday.

Spiciest Take: The Big Ten moves to an NFL-style injury report in the next few years. It’s inevitable.

Predicted Score: Illinois 38, Purdue 13

BRIAN NEUBERT, WONK

Overall Thought: How quickly this has all fallen apart has been shocking and there will be no sympathy from the Illinois sideline, If you don’t think recruiting or staff transactions get personal, think again.

*The* Key To The Game: As shockingly fast as this team and season have fallen apart, the games have been a microcosm of the broader theme. I say every week something positive has to happen early, but it might be more like something terrible not happening.

Your Pick To Click (offense): Drew Biber. Purdue’s trying to use its tight ends creatively. Maybe they come up with something to generate plays for someone other than Max Klare, the only skill player who should command any respect. Shorter throws for Ryan Browne would probably be a good idea.

Your Pick To Click (defense): Joseph Jefferson. Someone has to make a bunch of tackles. May as well be him.

Spiciest Take: When we’ve got dudes here picking the damn center as their pick to click, that means we should probably stop doing this.

Predicted Score: Illinois 31, Purdue 6.

CHAT GTP, STAFF AI BOT

Just trying to make sure we are more interesting …

Illinois, the No. 23 team in the country, opened as a 17.5-point favorite against lowly Purdue. Anyone who has followed the Illini for any length of time knows it’s practically unheard of for this program to go into any Big Ten game with such a perceived advantage.

Yeah, well, this was one huge spread that apparently wasn’t close to being huge enough. Early betting ballooned the line all the way up to 22.5 by midweek, easily making it one of college football’s biggest Week 7 movers.

The biggest mover was in the UAB-Army game; Army opened as an 18.5-point favorite, but a few days later the number was all the way up to 26.5. No. 1-ranked Texas opened as an 8.5-point favorite against Red River rival Oklahoma, but soon enough it was at 14.5. The Cincinnati-USF, Air Force-New Mexico and Appalachian State-Louisiana spreads also changed by at least four points.

Why the Illini? It might not be bettors’ confidence in them that moved the needle so dramatically. The Boilermakers are so bad – and the atmosphere surrounding coach Ryan Walters so negative – that perception of arguably the Power 4’s worst team is getting worse by the day.

Illinois vs. Purdue: Week 7 Odds, Ends and Prediction

Purdue Coach Ryan Walters Returns to Champaign: A Tough Journey Back

Big Ten Football Week 7 Power Rankings: Illinois Stays in Place After Bye

Illinois State quarterback Tommy Rittenhouse, a junior out of St. Francis High School in Wheaton, has thrown for nearly 1,000 yards and led the Redbirds to a 4-2 record.
Photo courtesy of Illinois State University Athletics

At the start of the season, Illinois State coach Brock Spack tried to sell the idea of a two-quarterback offense.

The plan was to utilize both junior Tommy Rittenhouse from St. Francis and Kansas State transfer Jake Rubley. Both have played in every game, but Rittenhouse has taken the majority of snaps and proved he can handle the job, throwing for nearly 1,000 yards while leading the No. 16 Redbirds to a 4-2 record.

One preseason article described Rittenhouse as primarily a running quarterback. That may have been true in 2022 when he made his first start against Youngstown State, throwing for 103 yards and running for 81. But not now.

“I feel this whole off-season I did a really good job attacking my passing game and doing what was necessary to improve that aspect,” he said in a phone interview. “It feels really good. The guys around me are all doing their jobs.”

Rittenhouse has two primary receiving targets. One is Rolling Meadows grad Daniel Sobkowicz with 24 catches for 308 yards, slightly behind fellow wide receiver Xavier Loyd.

Rolling Meadows alumnus Daniel Sobkowicz has 24 catches for 308 yards this season.
Photo courtesy of Illinois State University Athletics

Last week in a 45-10 victory at Southern Illinois, Rittenhouse scored on a 36-yard run and found Sobkowicz for a 38-yard touchdown. Then Sobkowicz threw a TD pass of his own, covering 28 yards to Loyd.

Sobkowicz, whose older brother Max also played at ISU, made his mark quickly, leading the Redbirds in receiving as a redshirt freshman in 2022. Rittenhouse was the backup QB the past two seasons but did start five games due to injuries to starter Zack Anexstad.

“I think he’s just got that ‘it’ factor,” Rittenhouse said of Sobkowicz. “He knows the game very well, recognizes coverages. I feel we’re developing that chemistry. Came in the same class freshman year.”

One storyline with Rittenhouse going back to his high school days is he’s diabetic. He regularly takes insulin shots on the sideline during games and has to monitor his blood sugar.

“It’s maybe a little harder (to deal with) in college,” he said. “I think the intensity of a game is a lot more to handle. But I’ve had it since I was 4 years old, so I kind of know what I need to take into factor on game day and practice. Nothing I can’t really handle.”

Before arriving at Illinois State, Sobkowicz might have been better known as a basketball player at Rolling Meadows. He grew up with current Lakers guard Max Christie, and the two played on some very good teams.

“Maybe in junior, senior year of high school, my main sport was probably basketball,” he said. “I still really miss basketball. I played (with Christie) since the feeder program, fourth or fifth grade. I’ve known him for a long time, played with his brother (Cam) in high school too. We’ve always been pretty good friends.”

Last season, Sobkowicz threw two passes in games. One went for a touchdown and one was intercepted.

“I think I regained (offensive coordinator Tony Petersen’s) trust,” he said. “It’s good that we’re utilizing that.”

Illinois State hasn’t been to the FCS playoffs since 2019. After rolling past SIU, the Redbirds seem to be the state of Illinois’ best chance of getting there, especially since they don’t play either of the South Dakota schools, both ranked in the top five. ISU will host No. 25 Missouri State on Saturday in Normal.

“We’re in the (Missouri) Valley (Conference) so we’re going to get tough games each week, no matter the opponent,” Rittenhouse said. “We’ve got to approach every the same, continue to focus on our execution and continue having fun with the season.”

FCS roundup:

Southern Illinois has lost three quarterbacks to long-term injuries, leaving true freshman Jake Curry from Edwardsville to finish the game against Illinois State. According to Prairie State Pigskin, the Salukis are trying to add graduate assistant Michael Lindauer to the active roster to give them a second option at QB. … After snapping a long losing streak, Western Illinois made it two wins in a row by beating Charleston Southern 31-20 last weekend. Linebacker Juan Dela Cruz (Warren) had a team-high 10 tackles. … Linebacker Anthony Shockey (Glenbard East) had a team-high 12 tackles in EIU’s loss to Southeast Missouri.

Local standouts:

Possibly the game of the week in Division III was Wisconsin-Platteville’s 30-27 overtime victory at No. 5 Wisconsin-LaCrosse. Platteville used a trick play for the winning touchdown, a lateral pass from QB Michael Priami (St. Charles North) to wide receiver Brandt Stare (Neuqua Valley), who fired it into the end zone for Ryan Doherty (St. Charles North). …

Running back Ta’Vion Geanes (Willowbrook) notched a career-high 115 yards on just 13 carries in Aurora’s 45-14 victory over Wisconsin Lutheran. … Wide receiver Breyden Smith (Hersey) piled up 10 catches for 135 yards for Augustana in an overtime loss to North Park. … Mark Gronowski (Neuqua Valley) threw three touchdown passes, including a 66-yarder, in South Dakota State’s 41-3 victory at Northern Iowa.