Illinois vs. Northwestern Odds

The Illinois Preventing Illini and Northwestern Wildcats meet in Evanston for what ought to be an attention-grabbing rivalry sport. Final yr, this sport got here right down to the wire, with Illinois successful narrowly by three.

Northwestern has appeared far more polished than final yr’s group, even with the lack of Ryan Younger to Duke.

That stated, this group has not performed a really powerful schedule. Positive, the Wildcats’ energy of schedule does rank 194th within the NCAA whereas Illinois’ ranks 188th; nevertheless, Illinois has performed seven top-90 KenPom groups whereas the Cats have solely taken on 5.

By way of high quality opponents, Northwestern has solely overwhelmed a Malik Corridor-less Michigan State group and Liberty. The Wildcats’ greatest sport got here in a one-point rock combat in opposition to Auburn, and so they misplaced by double digits to Pittsburgh and Ohio State.

Illinois has not performed essentially nicely, both. The Illini did beat UCLA, Syracuse and Texas early on, however they dropped what ought to have been winnable video games to Maryland, Penn State and Missouri.

The end result on Wednesday night time will seemingly rely upon which Illinois group reveals up.

There’s an opportunity Skyy Clark could possibly be sidelined once more for the Illini, however as a shoot-first level guard, that will assist in the brief time period. Sencire Harris and Jayden Epps have been a lift on the guard place for the Illini.

They need to assist push Brad Underwood and firm again into the win column.

Illinois is the true Jekyll and Hyde group of the NCAA. Nobody is aware of which group will seem in a given sport.

One of many causes is the Illini’s proclivity to show the ball over. They rank 306th in offensive turnover charge at simply over 21%. This could be the one downside of betting Illinois on Wednesday as a result of Northwestern ranks twenty ninth in turnover charge defensively at 23.3%.

The rationale Clark’s absence could not damage as a lot is he owns a 28%+ turnover charge, together with Coleman Hawkins. The Illini want Hawkins’ defensive prowess within the lineup, so Epps’ turnover charge of 17% and Harris’ of 13.8% will certainly assist mitigate this problem.

If Clark performs, count on his minutes to be restricted. It appears Underwood is lastly giving Epps and Harris extra tick primarily based on their utilization in opposition to Bethune-Cookman.

Now, Illinois has a serious edge on this sport offensively. It shoots 58.1% on 2-pointers and 33% from deep. Nonetheless, Epps, Harris, Matthew Mayer and Clark (if he performs) all shoot 35%+.

Terrence Shannon Jr. is just taking pictures 33%, however he shot almost 39% final season at Texas Tech. These numbers ought to positively regress because the season continues.

Picture by CBB Analytics

Northwestern holds opponents to 39.1% contained in the arc, nevertheless it ranks 123rd in defensive 3-point share at 32.3%, much like Illinois’ season common.

Round 35% of Illinois’ factors have come from past the arc, so count on the Illini to take advantage of this perimeter defensive problem for NU.

Offensively, Northwestern has had its struggles. As a lot because it has an exceptional defensive strategy, it ranks 196th in Adjusted Offensive Effectivity.

The Wildcats shoot 30.9% from deep and 44.2% on 2s. 36% of their offense has come from 3-point vary, whereas almost 20% has come from the strike as a result of they shoot a collective 75% from there.

Picture by CBB Analytics

Illinois, equally, doesn’t guard the arc as nicely, however this doesn’t essentially take into consideration when Harris performs extra usually. He ought to be capable to restrict Boo Buie if matched up with him. Shannon or Mayer will get Chase Audige.

Given these matchups, Illinois has the sting. Audige is the extra environment friendly 3-point shooter at a contact over 35%, however he and Buie have the tendency to chuck. Towards Ohio State, the 2 mixed for 5-of-19 from exterior the arc.

This won’t lower it with no inside assault.

Illinois vs. Northwestern Betting Choose

Northwestern has a fantastic protection, however its numbers are inflated in opposition to poorer groups. In the meantime, Illinois has proven it may defeat the very best within the nation.

The Illini may lose to anybody if they don’t alter. Nonetheless, count on Underwood to have the group able to go for this sport.

Illinois has an incredible edge offensively and will use it.

Even when Clark performs, his minutes will seemingly be cut up extra with Epps and Harris than they had been earlier than in an effort to restrict turnovers.

Illinois ought to pull this out by a minimum of one possession.

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