Go Iowa Awesome – Preview: Iowa MBB vs Northern Illinois

WHO: Northern Illinois Huskies (6-5)
WHEN: 6:00 PM CT (Friday, December 29, 2023)
WHERE: Carver-Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, IA)
TV: BTN+
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Bob Hansen)
MOBILE: bigtenplus.com
ONLINE: bigtenplus.com
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaHoops | @IowaonBTN
LINE: Iowa -18.5
KENPOM SPREAD: Iowa -15 (Iowa 92, Northern Illinois 77; 93% chance of Iowa winning)

Northern Illinois represents the last of the “gimme” games on Iowa’s 2023-24 schedule; after this, the schedule turns fully to Big Ten play (in which Iowa is currently 0-2) and the competition ramps up significantly. Per KenPom, the Hawkeyes has a 93% chance of beating the Huskies on Friday night; they have a win probability higher than 60% for only five remaining games in Big Ten play (home games against Rutgers, Nebraska, Maryland, Minnesota, and Penn State).

The Huskies are 6-5 on the season, but two of their six wins have been against non-Division I opposition (Illinois Tech and Calumet) and three of their remaining four wins were against teams ranked 222nd or lower in the KenPom rankings. Against the three best teams they’ve played thus far (Marquette, Northwestern, and Indiana State), the Huskies have lost by an average of 22.3 points per game.

Still, Iowa should know better than to overlook any directional Illinois team after getting upset by an even-worse Eastern Illinois team last season. Several members of this year’s Iowa team played in that game, so those memories ought to still be pretty fresh for them. Hit shots, don’t turn the ball over, and take care of the glass and the Hawkeyes should be able to close out 2023 with one more victory.

G David Coit (5’11”, 175, 17.5 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 3.8 apg, 1.1 spg, 42.2 FG%, 33.3 3FG%)
G Philmon Gebrewhit (6’7″, 190, 9.5 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 1.9 apg, 36.1 FG%, 26.3 3FG%)
F Zarique Nutter (6’7″, 200, 15.7 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 2.4 apg, 55.5 FG%, 46.2 3FG%)
F Xavier Amos (6’8″, 215, 11.6 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 1.0 apg, 55.9 FG%, 44.1 3FG%)
C Yanic Konan Niederhauser (6’11”, 255, 8.5 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 64.3 FG%, 28.6 3FG%)

Don’t miss out on any of our exclusive football, basketball, and recruiting coverage. Sign up with Go Iowa Awesome here.

Like several of the teams that Iowa has played in non-conference action this season, the Huskies are poor on the defensive end — they rank 298th nationally in defensive efficiency and four of the five teams that have defeated them averaged at least 1.19 points per possession in those wins. The only thing NIU is particularly good at on defense is not fouling — they’re 90th nationally in letting opponents get to the free throw line.

But teams are shooting well against NIU — opponents have an effective FG% of 51.3% against NIU this year. The Huskies have allowed opponents to make 35.2% of 3-point attempts this season (270th) and 50.6% of 2-point tries (198th). The Huskies are also lousy on the offensive glass on both sides of the floor. They’re only rebounding 26.6% of their own misses (ranking 271st nationally) while allowing opponents to grab 32.7% of their misses (285th).

NIU also does not force turnovers — they rank 361st nationally in turnover creation rate, including 341st in steal rate (6.5% of opponent possessions) and 347th in non-steal turnover rate (6.0% of opponent possessions). From an Iowa standpoint, that should pair well with a Hawkeye team that doesn’t turn the ball over very much (just 13.3% of possessions, 8th best nationally).

The Huskies do have a lot of height (65th nationally in average height), thanks to the presence of four starters 6’7″ or taller, most of whom play heavy minutes every game. (NIU ranks 310th in bench minutes this season, so the Huskies have been very reliant on their starting five.) That height advantage has allowed them to avoid getting shots blocked (they’re tops in the nation at that) and convert 2-point shots at a fairly good clip (52.6%, 100th).

Junior guard David Coit is the main scoring force for NIU, averaging 17.5 ppg to lead the team. He’s converting 50% (26/52) of his 2-point tries, and while he leads the lead with 27 made 3-pointers, he’s primarily a volume shooter from deep (27/79, 34.2%). He’s also a 91% free throw shooter, so Iowa would be wise to avoid putting him on the line.

Wing Zarique Nutter has also provided decent scoring pop for NIU, with 15.7 ppg (as well as 5.1 rpg). He’s shooting 46% from 3-point range, but that’s not his preferred shot — he’s attempted just 13 triples so far this season. Nutter is shooting 52% from 2-point range and this season (47/90) and has attempted a team-high 49 free throws this season (though he’s only shooting at a 61% clip from the line).

6’8″ forward Xavier Amos is the final Huskie scoring in double figures this season, at 11.6 ppg. He also leads the team with 6.1 rpg. Amos is also a willing — and able — 3-point shooter, taking 29 attempts beyond the arc (3rd-most on the team) and making 13 of them (45%).

The final two NIU starters are guard Philmon Gebrewhit and big man Yanic Konan Neiderhauser. Gebrewhit, a DePaul transfer, is averaging 9.5 ppg this year but has struggled to find his shot (41% from 2-point range, 28% from 3-point range). Neiderhauser, a 6’11” big man from Switzerland, averages 8.5 ppg, 5.7 rpg, and 2.0 blocks per game and is, predictably, most effective near the basket (71% on 2-point attempts this season).

The Huskies play at a pretty fast tempo (71.4 possessions per game, 74th nationally), so this could certainly be a high-scoring shootout. NIU has some capable scorers, so if they’re on, they could NIU in the game with Iowa and make things uncomfortably close. But this is also a game where Iowa should be able to control the glass (Owen Freeman could feast in this game) and where Iowa’s 3-point shooting can get on track. If that happens, this game will probably end up like NIU’s other games this season against quality opponents, with the Huskies on the wrong side of a 20-point loss.