Illinois
ESPN Gives Illinois Slim CFP Hopes – But Imagine What Might Have Been
The improbable last-second victory No. 24 Illinois (8-3, 5-2 Big Ten) pulled off against Rutgers in Piscataway, New Jersey, on Saturday set off more ripple effects than just the celebrations of Illini fans across the country. We’re talking, of course, about ESPN’s CFP Predictor.
Between the Illini win and the wild Saturday across college football – highlighted by Oklahoma’s 24-3 obliteration of No. 7 Alabama, Florida’s upset of No. 9 Ole Miss 24-17 and both No. 15 Texas A&M and No. 16 Colorado falling to unranked opponents – Illinois still has a chance to make the 12-team playoff, according to ESPN.
That chance, however, is a 1,000-yard shot in the dark with a pop gun: a measly 0.3 percent probability. It’s a fever dream that would only be realized if the college football world was completely flipped on its head, and in several highly specific ways, over the next two weeks. As Saturday reminded us, anything is possible – but Illini fans would be advised not to hold their breath.
What a day of college football 🤯 pic.twitter.com/R4rrWllGfr
— Yahoo Sports (@YahooSports) November 24, 2024
Yet with Illinois sitting at 8-3 – so close, yet so far away – it’s hard not to wonder what could have been.
Think back, for a moment, on the season up to this point. No one can fault the Illini for the loss to Penn State (currently ranked No. 4 in the AP poll) at Happy Valley or to Oregon (ranked No. 1 for a sixth straight week) in Eugene. But that home loss to unranked Minnesota? Well, that’s a different story.
The Gophers are a solid middle-of-the-road Big Ten team, but based on any metric or eye test that exists, they were eminently beatable by the Illini. Instead, they vanquished Illinois – and any legitimate hopes it had of making the CFP.
But for the sake of argument, let’s just pretend quarterback Luke Altmyer didn’t commit that fumble and Illinois wound up finishing that late-game drive in the end zone – probably a touchdown pass to receiver Pat Bryant – and tacked on the two-point conversion before winning a thriller in overtime.
Maybe that’s simply too much magic for a single team to ask for in a single season. But if it had happened, the Illini would currently be 9-2 (6-2 Big Ten), with 4-7 Northwestern (2-6 Big Ten) up next. In this scenario, even given a victory next week, 10 wins would still leave Illinois on the outside of a Big Ten Championship looking in, and ineligible to clinch an automatic CFP bid.
But what about an at-large bid? Let’s compare apples to apples – or, in this case, our hypothetical 9-2 Illini squad to a few SEC teams with similar profiles.
Start with Alabama, which is fresh off its aforementioned 24-3 thrashing by unranked Oklahoma. The Tide benefit from the 11th-toughest schedule in the country, but with three losses, they have just a 37.4 percent chance of making the CFP.
Now consider Tennessee. The Volunteers are currently 9-2, and their strength of schedule ranks 21st in the nation (only five ahead of Illinois’). Arguably the best match for the What Could Have Been Illini, the Volunteers currently have a 76.8 percent chance of making the playoff.
Yet it’s foolish to think Illinois – even at 9-2 today and with a win over Northwestern next week – would be a shoo-in for the College Football Playoff. It’s just hard to imagine the committee justifying the inclusion of five Big Ten teams in a 12-team playoff – but it would have been interesting to learn just how close the Illini could have come.
Regardless, at 8-3, Illinois has put together one of its best seasons in recent memory and appears well-positioned to be in line for a top-tier non-CFP bowl, which could offer the Illini an opportunity to further legitimize their 2024 campaign. Even if it’s not everything it could have been, during this week of giving thanks, Illinois – and its fans – have one of the program’s best seasons in recent memory to be grateful for.
Instant Analysis: Illinois Wins 36-31 Thriller at Rutgers on Last-Second Score
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3 Key Stats from Illinois Football vs. Rutgers (Week 13)
Illinois
Voters had no choice in nearly 9-in-10 primary elections
Illinois voting data shows voters had no choice of candidate in nearly 9-in-10 Democratic and Republican primaries for state and federal office in 2024.
Voters had no choice of candidate in nearly nine out of every 10 Republican and Democratic primary elections for state and federal office in 2024.
Analysis of Illinois voting data shows Democrats ran one or no candidate in 135 of the 155 primary elections for the U.S. House, Illinois Senate and Illinois House. That left voters with a choice between candidates in just 20 races.
Meanwhile, Republicans only ran one or no candidate in 137 of the 155 primary elections last year for non-judicial state and federal positions, giving voters of a choice in just 18 races.
In total, there were 155 primaries for the U.S. House of Representatives, Illinois Senate and Illinois House in 2024. Democrats did not run a candidate in 28 of these races while Republicans failed to run a candidate in 50.
And in the 107 Democratic primaries and 87 Republican primaries were only one candidate ran for the position, those candidates secured their spot on the general election ballot with a single primary vote.
To get on the primary ballot for Illinois Senate, the Illinois General Assembly mandates established party candidates to get 1,000 petition signatures from district party members. Illinois House candidates need 500 signatures. For U.S. House, either party’s candidates need signatures from 0.5% of all primary voters from their party in the district.
This lack of choice between candidates for Democratic and Republican party primaries also left general election voters with fewer choices on the ballot.
In the 2024 election cycle, 65 of the 155 non-judicial state and federal general elections had only one candidate on the ballot. That means in 65 districts, it only took one vote for a candidate to win a seat representing the entire district.
Illinoisans already suffer from a lack of choice in candidates. Research shows an average of 4.7 million Illinois voters had no choice in their state representative between the 2012 and 2020 election cycles.
Research shows more choice drives voter participation and makes legislators less susceptible to the influence of lobbyists and special interests. Lightly contested elections also tend to skew policies in favor of powerful special interests.
Illinois should consider reforms that will give voters more choices at the ballot box, such as making it easier for independents to enter the general election like they do in Iowa, Wisconsin and Tennessee.
Until that happens, Illinoisans will continue to see elections with too few choices and too much influence handed to those already in power.
Illinois
2 men shot, 1 fatally, outside bar in Morris, police say
MORRIS, Ill. (WLS) — A man was killed and another was injured in a shooting outside of a bar in Grundy County.
The shooting happened early Saturday outside of Clayton’s Tap in the 100 block of West Washington Street in Morris, Illinois, officials said.
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The Grundy County Sheriff’s Office responded to the scene, where they found two men with gunshot wounds. One was pronounced dead at the scene and the other was taken to a hospital in critical condition.
The victim who died was identified by the Grundy County Coroner’s Office as 35-year-old Julian Rosario of Channahon.
A suspect in the shooting, 22-year-old Marshall Szpara of Seneca, was arrested and “initially charged with two counts of aggravated battery with a firearm, pending further review from the Grundy County States Attorney’s office,” Morris police said.
No further information was available.
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Illinois
Firefighter faces arson charges after Illinois wildfire burns hundreds of acres
A volunteer firefighter is facing arson charges after he allegedly set a fire in a Lee County wildlife preserve, scorching hundreds of acres.
According to authorities, 21-year-old Trent Schaefer, a volunteer firefighter in Ohio, Illinois, was charged with one count of arson in connection to a fire that occurred in the Green River State Wildlife Management Area Friday.
On that date, temperatures had soared into the 60s, winds were whipping at more than 30 miles per hour, and humidity plunged below 30%, leading the National Weather Service to issue warnings on the danger of wildfires in Illinois.
It is alleged that Schaefer was seen by witnesses getting out of a vehicle and igniting multiple small fires within the nature preserve, which then coalesced into a larger blaze.
Those witnesses were able to restrain the suspect until Lee County sheriff’s deputies arrested him.
Image taken by Lee County Sheriff’s Office
By the time firefighters arrived on scene the blaze had already spread, and multiple departments were called in to assist with the fire, including the Illinois Department of Natural Resources.
Firefighters were able to bring the blaze under control by the late afternoon, but not before it burned more than 700 acres, according to authorities.
Schaefer is also a suspect in several other arsons around Lee County, but he has not been charged in any other fires at this time.
Illinois State Police are assisting with the investigation, and no further information was immediately available.
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