The improbable last-second victory No. 24 Illinois (8-3, 5-2 Big Ten) pulled off against Rutgers in Piscataway, New Jersey, on Saturday set off more ripple effects than just the celebrations of Illini fans across the country. We’re talking, of course, about ESPN’s CFP Predictor.

Between the Illini win and the wild Saturday across college football – highlighted by Oklahoma’s 24-3 obliteration of No. 7 Alabama, Florida’s upset of No. 9 Ole Miss 24-17 and both No. 15 Texas A&M and No. 16 Colorado falling to unranked opponents – Illinois still has a chance to make the 12-team playoff, according to ESPN.

That chance, however, is a 1,000-yard shot in the dark with a pop gun: a measly 0.3 percent probability. It’s a fever dream that would only be realized if the college football world was completely flipped on its head, and in several highly specific ways, over the next two weeks. As Saturday reminded us, anything is possible – but Illini fans would be advised not to hold their breath.

Yet with Illinois sitting at 8-3 – so close, yet so far away – it’s hard not to wonder what could have been.

Think back, for a moment, on the season up to this point. No one can fault the Illini for the loss to Penn State (currently ranked No. 4 in the AP poll) at Happy Valley or to Oregon (ranked No. 1 for a sixth straight week) in Eugene. But that home loss to unranked Minnesota? Well, that’s a different story.

The Gophers are a solid middle-of-the-road Big Ten team, but based on any metric or eye test that exists, they were eminently beatable by the Illini. Instead, they vanquished Illinois – and any legitimate hopes it had of making the CFP. 

But for the sake of argument, let’s just pretend quarterback Luke Altmyer didn’t commit that fumble and Illinois wound up finishing that late-game drive in the end zone – probably a touchdown pass to receiver Pat Bryant – and tacked on the two-point conversion before winning a thriller in overtime.

Maybe that’s simply too much magic for a single team to ask for in a single season. But if it had happened, the Illini would currently be 9-2 (6-2 Big Ten), with 4-7 Northwestern (2-6 Big Ten) up next. In this scenario, even given a victory next week, 10 wins would still leave Illinois on the outside of a Big Ten Championship looking in, and ineligible to clinch an automatic CFP bid.

But what about an at-large bid? Let’s compare apples to apples – or, in this case, our hypothetical 9-2 Illini squad to a few SEC teams with similar profiles.

Start with Alabama, which is fresh off its aforementioned 24-3 thrashing by unranked Oklahoma. The Tide benefit from the 11th-toughest schedule in the country, but with three losses, they have just a 37.4 percent chance of making the CFP.

Now consider Tennessee. The Volunteers are currently 9-2, and their strength of schedule ranks 21st in the nation (only five ahead of Illinois’). Arguably the best match for the What Could Have Been Illini, the Volunteers currently have a 76.8 percent chance of making the playoff.

Yet it’s foolish to think Illinois – even at 9-2 today and with a win over Northwestern next week – would be a shoo-in for the College Football Playoff. It’s just hard to imagine the committee justifying the inclusion of five Big Ten teams in a 12-team playoff – but it would have been interesting to learn just how close the Illini could have come.

Regardless, at 8-3, Illinois has put together one of its best seasons in recent memory and appears well-positioned to be in line for a top-tier non-CFP bowl, which could offer the Illini an opportunity to further legitimize their 2024 campaign. Even if it’s not everything it could have been, during this week of giving thanks, Illinois – and its fans – have one of the program’s best seasons in recent memory to be grateful for.

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