Brad Underwood finally mastered Illinois’ winning formula

Happy Friday, Illinois Land!

Instead of doing the usual column with post-Thanksgiving word puns involving side dishes and jokes about turkeys, I will use my time to point out a few things that I now know about college basketball in 2025, and the place that Illinois occupies inside of that stratosphere.

I will also discuss where Illinois fits into the landscape of the Big Ten. I think you’ll like how I see that unfolding. My pending Big Ten Analysis will highlight the lack of good depth in the conference.

It is not exactly a banner year for the Big Ten in men’s college basketball. To say the least.

Despite the fact that the Big Ten has dropped in the national landscape, and despite the fact that Illinois lost to a True Elite in 2025 against Alabama in Birmingham by double digits, it’s great beyond words to have a head basketball coach leading your program playing basketball the way it needs to be played at this present date.

Brad Underwood has turned Illinois into a National Program. Do not confuse this with being a national powerhouse.

As I see it, here are the five levels of Illinois basketball. National Championship Contender can replace Blue Blood for Illinois. There was no way for me to get in a shot at Indiana and its fans unless I constituted it this way.

For reference: Indiana is now No. 61 in KenPom (76 in OER, and 51 in DER). I was told that they are the conference favorite. I was also told Illinois cannot play defense. More on this in a bit.

• Conference Bottomfeeder (Year 1-2): 26-39 in his first two seasons, 11-27 in the Big Ten. I would call this 1990s Era coaching. Up the line, full court pressure, etc.
• Respected NCAA Tournament Team (Year 3+): This will be five-straight non-bubble NCAATs for Underwood, six if you count the COVID-19 cancellation of 2020.
• Big Ten Power (Year 3+): In turn, this makes you a Final Four contender on semi-annual basis, at a minimum. I don’t mean make a Final Four, but be a Top Four seed. No one believes that NC State had a better season than Illinois last year.
• National (and International) Program (Year 4+): Playing games on CBS on Thanksgiving by request, re-hiring arguably the country’s top assistant coach (Orlando Antigua), signing two potential lottery picks from two countries outside the United States. I could go on, but I won’t. You get it.

• Blue Blood (Never): This outdated term continues to keep Indiana fans from jumping off the nearest bridge for the last three-plus decades. Illinois will never be here. UCONN can’t get into the club with six National Championships since 1999.

Having said that, I’m going to say this.

John Calipari is in the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame. He has taken three different programs to the Final Four: Massachusetts, Memphis and Kentucky. He is an all-time great coach with a dazzling record (814-260, for a .758 winning percentage).

Calipari won an NCAA Tournament and cut down the nets in 2012, his third year in Lexington leading the Cats. He was outstanding at Kentucky (410-123), winning games at a .769 clip during his 15-year tenure.

He inexplicably missed the NCAA Tournament twice, going just 9-16 in 2021. His last three years, Kentucky lost 30 games and twice in the NCAAT to vastly inferior teams against No. 15 St. Peter’s and last year against No. 14 Oakland.

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Please read the words I type. Do not create a false narrative around comparing Calipari and Underwood, in totality.

Underwood certainly has not had the career of Calipari — it’s not close — nor will he likely end up in the Hall of Fame anywhere outside of Champaign. Not impossible, but not likely.

Looking to the future, it’s clear which coach of the pair from the Thanksgiving matchup in Kansas City has the brighter future. This isn’t close, either.

While Underwood’s Illini blitzed Arkansas with a barrage of threes, high ball screens and floor spacing for play makers, Calipari and Kentu…Arkansas…had a plan “to attack the rim all game,” according to Calipari post-game.

Arkansas ATTEMPTED 17 threes. Illinois MADE 15. Illinois was +30 in in this category.

Frees (points at the free throw line) and threes (points behind the arc) is something I look at during every halftime, and after every game.

Illinois was +29 in this category. BU’s squad scored 90 points on the elite Arkansas defense, which was ranked No. 8 in KenPom DER prior to the contest.

The Illini had 60 of their 90 points (67.7%) of their points on Frees and Threes. Check on this stat every game that Underwood and Illinois play the entirety of the season. It will likely tell the story.

Factor in 2P% defense and you can get the winner of every game Illinois plays this year. The defensive strategy of Illinois is to defend the bucket and the arc. Despite giving a bucket full to Alabama in the lone loss (100-87), Illinois is currently No. 21 in DER.

Let’s take a look at pace of play, and how it affects efficiency, from a large scale perspective. What Illinois is doing is hard to copy.

For that matter, the Illinois offense is now No. 18 in OER (Offensive Efficiency Rating). Of the top 21 in DER on KenPom, Illinois has the FASTEST tempo, at No. 36.

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In summary, Illinois plays in the Top 10% in pace of play and ranks even better in efficiency at both ends. It’s not only extremely difficult to do, but largely unnecessary.

When you play fast and efficient on offense, defense lessens in importance in direct correlation with how more efficient your offense can be. In short, play fast and good on offense and you outscore your opponent and win based on simple math.

Here are the avearages for defensive and offensive efficiency. The lower the number, the faster the pace.

Top 5 DERs in terms of pace average: 260.6

Top 5 OERs in terms of pace average: 66.8

Illinois pace of play: 36 (Top 21 in both DER and OER)

I know it’s a lot of numbers. I get it. Underwood has embraced the numbers game and turned Illinois from a Big Ten Bottomfeeder to a National Program.

You may not like it, but you’re gonna learn to love it.

Please take The Scientific Poll.

This is threes and frees. This is creating space. This is the winning formula.

This is Illinois Basketball.