Illinois

Better Know a B1G: Adv. Stat Comparison Illinois Fighting Illini

Published

7 months ago

April 18, 2024

Better Know a B1G: Adv. Stat Comparison Illinois Fighting Illini

Mark and Andrew had articles last week about getting to know one of the teams in the BigTen, Illinois. (https://www.uwdawgpound.com/2024/4/12/24127914/big-ten-newcomer-q-a-illinois-fighting-illini-uw-football and https://www.uwdawgpound.com/2024/4/12/24128205/better-know-a-b1g-when-the-other-juice-was-loose)

Another way to look at the teams in the BigTen is to compare some advanced-type stats between those teams and UW.

Composite Ranking Comparison

Let’s start first by looking at the final ranking in the Massey Composite (https://masseyratings.com/ranks) over the last 9 years.

As you can see, Illinois has only finished in the top 60 once in the past 9 years: 2022. That year they finished ranked 28. The other thing to notice is the significant dip in Jimmy Lake’s last season compared to the rest of the seasons. And that was the only time when Illinois finished ranked higher than UW.

SRS

The Simple Rating System, SRS, (https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2023-ratings.html) tries to rate and rank teams, not just in a season, but across seasons.

The results look similar. Illinois has had just one good season. The one difference is that UW was lower in the COVID 2020 season, which was again coached by Jimmy Lake. So here, the effect of Lake as the coach is more evident. It is also evident that the gains that Illinois made during 2021 and 2022 appear to have been erased by a poor 2023 season.

F+

I could go through a lot of the advanced stats like FPI, SP+, etc. Instead, I’ll just include one, F+, which is a combination of FEI and SP+. This should be representative of most of the advanced stats.

This graph is also similar to the others above. One difference is that Illinois actually ranked higher than UW in both 2021 and 2022. (In 2022 Illinois had a value of 1.06 while UW’s value was 1.04.)

Talent Comparison

While not normally an “advanced stat”, I thought that I would compare the talent for both teams each year over the same period. Here I’ll be using the average rating by 247Sports for all of the players. (https://247sports.com/Season/2023-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/)

UW has clearly maintained a talent advantage over Illinois during this period. And you can see that both teams have improved their talent during this period, and that the improvements are similar.

Final Thoughts

UW last played Illinois in 2014 and is scheduled to play Illinois in conference play in 2025 when the Illini visit Husky Stadium. UW is scheduled to play at Illinois in 2028. (Note that although UW did a home-and-home with Illinois in 2013-2014, but they did not play at Illinois in 2013-instead they played the game in Chicago.)

Despite a tough 2023 season, Bret Bielema has Illinois playing better than they were the previous 5 seasons. They’ll have to be playing better considering that this year they are scheduled to play Oregon, Penn State, and Michigan, plus Duke in a non-conference game.

UW should be able to maintain a talent advantage over Illinois. But, as we’ve seen, talent alone isn’t enough. But if Fisch can do what he did at Arizona, UW should be able to be the better team when they meet next season.

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Illinois

Illinois at Northwestern Best Bet: Odds, Predictions, Recent Stats, and Trends for November 30th

Published

2 hours ago

November 26, 2024

Press Room

Illinois at Northwestern Best Bet: Odds, Predictions, Recent Stats, and Trends for November 30th

Illinois Fighting Illini (8-3) vs. Northwestern Wildcats (4-7) Preview:

The Fighting Illini are 8-3, ranked inside the top 25, and are bowl eligible. They travel to Evanston, Illinois, to take on the 4-7 Northwestern Wildcats. With the Wildcats winning 45-43 last season, you can expect Brett Bielema to have his boys ready to finish the season strong.

The Illini enter this contest, winning back-to-back games and scoring 38 points in both. Their offense has been humming since the dud against Minnesota.

Northwestern is on a horrid skid, having lost four of its last five games. Their lone win was a 26-20 overtime victory over Purdue.

Now they try to close their season with a win over Illinois as a 7-point underdog.

Bet the Edge is your source for all things sports betting. Get all of Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick’s insights weekdays at 6 AM ET right here or wherever you get your favorite podcasts.

Game Details & How to Watch Illinois vs. Northwestern:

Date: Saturday, November 30, 2024
Time: 12:00 PM EST
Site: Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium
City: Evanston, IL
TV/Streaming: Big Ten Network

Game Odds for Illinois at Northwestern via BetMGM:

Moneyline: Illinois (-250), Northwestern (+240)
Spread: Illinois -7.5
Total: 44.5

Betting Insights and Predictions:

NBC Sports Bet’s expert, Brad Thomas, is leaning towards Illinois -7.5 in this matchup.

Thomas: “I don’t have a very strong read on this game. On paper, the Illini should dominate the Wildcats. They are inside the top 50 in EPA margin and offensively, this team can put points on the board, which feels like the complete opposite thing can be said about Northwestern. They are 132 in net points per drive and 124^th in offensive success rate. Illinois probably wins this game by double digits.”

Names to Know for Illinois at Northwestern:

Illinois Fighting Illini: QB Luke Altmyer – Altmyer has thrown for 2,373 yards, 20 touchdowns, and just three interceptions.
Northwestern Wildcats: QB Jack Lausch – Lausch has thrown for 1,427 yards, five touchdowns, and six interceptions.

Rotoworld has you covered with all the latest player news from the NFL and MLB. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type!

BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship

Line movement (Last Week to Now)

· Ohio State +320 to +275

· Georgia +500 to +400

· Texas +500 to +450

Highest Ticket%

· Ohio State 13.4%

· Texas 11.1%

· Georgia 10.5%

Betting Trends & Insights Ahead of Illinois at Northwestern:

Illinois is 4-1 against the spread in its last 5 road games
Northwestern has lost 4 of its last 5 games
The average total game score (49.5) in Illinois’ last 10 road games is over the Total (44)

For more betting analysis and insights, follow our experts on social media:

– Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)

– Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)

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Illinois

Deadspin | Dominating first half propels Illinois past Little Rock

Published

10 hours ago

November 26, 2024

Press Room

Deadspin | Dominating first half propels Illinois past Little Rock

Nov 25, 2024; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Tre White (22) drives to the basket during the first half against the Little Rock Trojans at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Freshman guard Kasparas Jakucionis scored a season-high 21 points and Illinois reeled off 23 straight first-half points to trigger a 92-34 non-conference victory over Little Rock Monday night in Champaign, Ill.

Tomislav Ivisic posted 16 points and 11 rebounds for Illinois (5-1) while Tre White contributed 16 points and eight rebounds and Will Riley added 13 points. The Illini tied the State Farm Center record for fewest points allowed by limiting the visitors to 23.6 percent shooting from the field .

Jordan Jefferson paced Little Rock (3-4) with 11 points and five rebounds. The Trojans finished with just 13 baskets while committing 14 turnovers and getting outrebounded 56-26.

Little Rock’s Mwani Williamson opened the game with a 3-pointer, but it didn’t take long for Illinois to find ways to attack the Trojans’ man-to-man and get the visitors in foul trouble.

Illinois needed just 6 minutes, 7 seconds to get into the bonus — at which time Jakucionis canned two free throws to give the Illini a 17-8 lead and a 9-for-10 showing at the line.

The Ohio Valley Conference preseason favorites pulled within 20-13 on Jefferson’s 3-pointer coming out of a timeout, but Illinois answered with 23 straight points to turn it into a rout. Ivisic, Riley, Ben Humrichous and Jakucionis drilled 3-pointers during the run while Morez Johnson Jr., Riley and Ivisic threw down dunks.

Little Rock finally snapped its 7-minute, 46-second scoring drought with Johnathan Lawson’s 10-foot set shot at the 3:41 mark to make it 43-15, but Illinois took a 51-19 lead into the break.

At halftime, the Illini owned a 27-10 advantage on the boards and they turned their seven offensive rebounds into 14 second-chance points. Little Rock, meanwhile, shot just 24 percent from the field and 40 percent at the line.

Illinois picked up where it left off in the second half. Jakucionis drilled two 3-pointers and White hit two layups as the Illini opened with a 12-2 run to push the margin to 63-21.

Little Rock went scoreless for the final 5:05 to finish with 34 points, which tied Wisconsin-Green Bay (Dec. 4, 1985) and Savannah State (Nov. 21, 2006) for fewest points by an opponent since Illinois’ home arena opened in 1963.

–Field Level Media

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Illinois

Illinois (IHSA) high school football playoffs: 2024 brackets, state championship matchups, game times

Published

18 hours ago

November 25, 2024

Press Room

Illinois (IHSA) high school football playoffs: 2024 brackets, state championship matchups, game times

The 2024 Illinois high school football playoffs conclude this week as all eight IHSA classifications prepare to crown their state champions.

>>Illinois high school football playoff brackets

All eight of the 2024 IHSA State Championship games will be played this Friday and Saturday (November 29-30) at Illinois State University’s Hancock Stadium in Normal, Illinois.

Stick with High School on SI for all of the matchups, game times and scores throughout the 2024 Illinois (IHSA) football playoffs.

Illinois high school football playoffs 2024 brackets

Here are the Illinois high school football playoff brackets, with matchups and game times, plus state championship matchups:

State Championship matchup

(12) Loyola Academy vs. (14) York

7:00 p.m. Saturday

2024 IHSA Class 8A high school football bracket

State Championship matchup

(4) Batavia vs. (19) Chicago Mt. Carmel

4:00 p.m. Saturday

2024 IHSA Class 7A high school football bracket

State Championship matchup

(3) Geneva vs. (1) East St. Louis

1:00 p.m. Saturday

2024 IHSA Class 6A high school football bracket

State Championship matchup

(3) Nazareth Academy vs. (6) Joliet Catholic

10:00 a.m. Saturday

2024 IHSA Class 5A high school football bracket

State Championship matchup

(9) DePaul College Prep vs. (12) Mt. Zion

7:00 p.m. Friday

2024 IHSA Class 4A high school football bracket

State Championship matchup

(9) Montini Catholic vs. (6) Monticello

4:00 p.m. Friday

2024 IHSA Class 3A high school football bracket

State Championship matchup

(6) Chicago Christian vs. (2) Maroa-Forsyth

1:00 p.m. Friday

2024 IHSA Class 2A high school football bracket

State Championship matchup

(2) Lena-Winslow vs. (1) Althoff Catholic

10:00 a.m. Friday

2024 IHSA Class 1A high school football bracket

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— Sam Brown | sam@scorebooklive.com | @sblivesports

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