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Analyst warns Illinois betting tax hike could trigger similar moves in other states

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Analyst warns Illinois betting tax hike could trigger similar moves in other states


The decision by lawmakers in Illinois to push ahead with an increase in sports betting tax could push other states across the US to take similar action, an analyst from consultancy B Global has warned.

Last week, the Illinois house of representatives passed a progressive wagering tax rate. This will see the state’s most prolific sports betting operators pay tax at 40%, a sharp rise from the current rate of 15%.

The new-look structure sets rates at between 20% and 40%, depending on each operator’s adjusted gaming revenue (AGR). Operators posting more than $200m (£157m/€184m) face the highest rate of 40% – second-highest tax rate in the US behind New York at 51%.

Other boundaries include a 20% tax rate for operators with an AGR of under $30m, 25% for between, 30m and $50m, 30% for AGR ranging from $50m to $100m, and 35% for AGR of $100m to $200m.

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The proposal, which forms part of the FY2025 budget in Illinois, is now with Illinois governor JB Pritzker for sign-off. Should Pritzker decide the pass the law, the new rates will come into effect from 1 July.

Potential knock-on effect of betting tax increase

Brendan Bussmann of B Global, a consultancy serving the gaming, sports and hospitality industries, has now tabled further concerns through a note from Truist. These primarily relate to the knock-on effect the increase could have, saying further states could follow suit with similar increases.

“With Illinois the second state to increase its tax rate [after Ohio raised its rate from 10% to 20% in 2023], investors have an increased concern around contagion,” Bussmann said.

Singling out other states, Bussmann highlights recent activity elsewhere that could signal a move to higher taxes. Massachusetts considered a hike this year, though it was quickly rejected, with Bussmann saying this is unlikely to pass in the future. 

Bussmann said there has also been talk about a hike in New Jersey. However, he believes this is unlikely given how seasoned the state is with governing gaming policy. In addition, he referenced Pennsylvania as a possible candidate, but said attention here is more likely to be on the proliferation of skill-based games. 

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Higher taxes punish largest contributors in Illinois

Bussmann, himself a proponent of lower tax operating environments, also criticised Illinois for going after the most lucrative operators. He noted how the higher tax rates will hit the operators that already contribute the most tax revenue in the state. 

He also warned that pushing tax up could have a negative impact on the overall market in Illinois. With operators facing higher costs, this may see them withdraw promotions, cut back on their offering and offer worse odds.

DraftKings and FanDuel Group’s parent company Flutter Entertainment both saw their stock price declinewhen the plans were announced. DraftKings and Flutter would be facing the highest rate of tax, with both having AGR un excess of $200m.

In addition, Bussmann went as far to say as the rise would be most beneficial for offshore betting operators. As these brands do not pay tax, any potential exit of licensed operators from the market would push more traffic their way.

What is happening elsewhere?

Longer-term, Bussmann worries states yet to legalise betting will institute higher tax rates at conception without understanding industry dynamics.

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Among the states yet to legalise wagering are Minnesota, which ran out of time in the latest legislative session, Georgia, and Missouri, where a ballot initiative aimed at this November’s ballot will likely fae strong opposition from land-based casinos.

Bussmann said California and Texas continue to be key states to watch, given their size and the potential impact on the overall legal gambling picture in the US. According to Bussmann, California is having productive conversations around sports betting being on the ballot in 2026. However, he adds that a 2028 move is more likely, given ongoing tribal opposition.

As for Texas, opposition from Governor Greg Abbott to legal gambling means any move is not likely for several years, perhaps as far ahead as 2027.

Elsewhere, Bussmann notes the decision by the DC Office of Lottery and Gaming to switch from Gambet DC to FanDuel. This, he says, has seen an immediate pickup in traction – to the point where there is now talk of opening up the market to other operators.

Away from sports betting, Bussmann acknowledges an effort by Arkansas to consider legal igaming earlier this year. However, this ultimately came to nothing, with Bussmann saying legalisation is not likely to be imminent,

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Maryland also failed to get igaming across the line during the last session, though continues to face budget constraints potentially driving the conversation.

In addition, Illinois itself remains a candidate for legalising igaming, with Bussmann expecting the state to make a move at some point. However, he recognises how other legal activity in the state could slow progress.

Alongside the higher sports betting tax, Illinois faces expanding video gaming terminals into Chicago and Bally’s building a land-based casino in the downtown region. 



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Illinois

Voters had no choice in nearly 9-in-10 primary elections

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Voters had no choice in nearly 9-in-10 primary elections



Illinois voting data shows voters had no choice of candidate in nearly 9-in-10 Democratic and Republican primaries for state and federal office in 2024.

Voters had no choice of candidate in nearly nine out of every 10 Republican and Democratic primary elections for state and federal office in 2024.

Analysis of Illinois voting data shows Democrats ran one or no candidate in 135 of the 155 primary elections for the U.S. House, Illinois Senate and Illinois House. That left voters with a choice between candidates in just 20 races.

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Meanwhile, Republicans only ran one or no candidate in 137 of the 155 primary elections last year for non-judicial state and federal positions, giving voters of a choice in just 18 races.

In total, there were 155 primaries for the U.S. House of Representatives, Illinois Senate and Illinois House in 2024. Democrats did not run a candidate in 28 of these races while Republicans failed to run a candidate in 50.

And in the 107 Democratic primaries and 87 Republican primaries were only one candidate ran for the position, those candidates secured their spot on the general election ballot with a single primary vote.

To get on the primary ballot for Illinois Senate, the Illinois General Assembly mandates established party candidates to get 1,000 petition signatures from district party members. Illinois House candidates need 500 signatures. For U.S. House, either party’s candidates need signatures from 0.5% of all primary voters from their party in the district.

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This lack of choice between candidates for Democratic and Republican party primaries also left general election voters with fewer choices on the ballot.

In the 2024 election cycle, 65 of the 155 non-judicial state and federal general elections had only one candidate on the ballot. That means in 65 districts, it only took one vote for a candidate to win a seat representing the entire district.

Illinoisans already suffer from a lack of choice in candidates. Research shows an average of 4.7 million Illinois voters had no choice in their state representative between the 2012 and 2020 election cycles.

Research shows more choice drives voter participation and makes legislators less susceptible to the influence of lobbyists and special interests. Lightly contested elections also tend to skew policies in favor of powerful special interests.

Illinois should consider reforms that will give voters more choices at the ballot box, such as making it easier for independents to enter the general election like they do in Iowa, Wisconsin and Tennessee.

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Until that happens, Illinoisans will continue to see elections with too few choices and too much influence handed to those already in power.





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Illinois

2 men shot, 1 fatally, outside bar in Morris, police say

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2 men shot, 1 fatally, outside bar in Morris, police say


MORRIS, Ill. (WLS) — A man was killed and another was injured in a shooting outside of a bar in Grundy County.

The shooting happened early Saturday outside of Clayton’s Tap in the 100 block of West Washington Street in Morris, Illinois, officials said.

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The Grundy County Sheriff’s Office responded to the scene, where they found two men with gunshot wounds. One was pronounced dead at the scene and the other was taken to a hospital in critical condition.

The victim who died was identified by the Grundy County Coroner’s Office as 35-year-old Julian Rosario of Channahon.

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A suspect in the shooting, 22-year-old Marshall Szpara of Seneca, was arrested and “initially charged with two counts of aggravated battery with a firearm, pending further review from the Grundy County States Attorney’s office,” Morris police said.

No further information was available.

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Firefighter faces arson charges after Illinois wildfire burns hundreds of acres

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Firefighter faces arson charges after Illinois wildfire burns hundreds of acres


A volunteer firefighter is facing arson charges after he allegedly set a fire in a Lee County wildlife preserve, scorching hundreds of acres.

According to authorities, 21-year-old Trent Schaefer, a volunteer firefighter in Ohio, Illinois, was charged with one count of arson in connection to a fire that occurred in the Green River State Wildlife Management Area Friday.

On that date, temperatures had soared into the 60s, winds were whipping at more than 30 miles per hour, and humidity plunged below 30%, leading the National Weather Service to issue warnings on the danger of wildfires in Illinois.

It is alleged that Schaefer was seen by witnesses getting out of a vehicle and igniting multiple small fires within the nature preserve, which then coalesced into a larger blaze.

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Those witnesses were able to restrain the suspect until Lee County sheriff’s deputies arrested him.

Image taken by Lee County Sheriff’s Office

By the time firefighters arrived on scene the blaze had already spread, and multiple departments were called in to assist with the fire, including the Illinois Department of Natural Resources.

Firefighters were able to bring the blaze under control by the late afternoon, but not before it burned more than 700 acres, according to authorities.

Schaefer is also a suspect in several other arsons around Lee County, but he has not been charged in any other fires at this time.

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Illinois State Police are assisting with the investigation, and no further information was immediately available.



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