On The Dot: Warming Michigan winters and snowmobile tourism

(CBS DETROIT) – “The last three winters at least have been really brutal,” says Jason Galanter, who owns the Frederic Inn. 

“It’s warmer days throughout the dead of winter that can ruin the conditions for snowmobilers,” added Scott Meterko, owner of Bright Powersports in Lincoln Park.

Galanter and Meterko are two different sides of the same snowy coin.

Both love to snowmobile and have all their lives, but both also own businesses that are seeing a trend in the wrong direction regarding snowmobiling in the northern mitten.

“I remember riding down here. In the lower peninsula, the snow was gnarly. We got 36 inches in two days. But then within five days, we had grass again, like it literally was 55 and rainy,” says Galanter. “So, like, that’s what we’re having. This is huge for ups and downs of temperature, in which we’re getting the snow and losing the snow. So it’s really a bummer.”

Galanter’s Frederic Inn is a well-known stop for anyone riding the trails between Grayling and Gaylord. He’s grown up there and says he can see the difference year to year with how even a slightly milder winter can drastically affect businesses that rely on snowy tourism.

“Snowfall and temperature literally define how our business is during the winter,” he says.

The northern part of the mitten – the northwest snow belts – is a well-known area to visit for those in southern parts of the state if they don’t want to make a day-long trip to the Upper Peninsula. But it all depends on the snow.

“If not, you’re going up the U.P., which is what I have to do, which is like it’s a bummer for us locals, too,” Galanter said. “It’s like I grew up my whole life riding out of the house, riding anywhere I needed. It’s a lot cheaper than loading up the truck, loading up the trailer, adding another two hours from here to Paradise or Munising or even farther up at the top of Copper Harbor.”

And it isn’t just a trip farther north.

While researching this story, CBS News Detroit Ahmad Bajjey called seven different power sports dealers, for example, Rosenau in Dearborn. They directed Bajjey to Meterko, who is the only one still selling snowmobiles.

Meterko says he is seeing a change in the time of year for snowmobiling both as a business owner and a rider.

“So it’s the last decade or so, it’s been a little bit more of a struggle with the weather because what we start to see is we start to see a lot of this mid-winter warm up where, you know, in January and February you get these, you know, upper forties and fifties every day. So, you know, one of those days can entirely wipe out a week or two worth of snow in bass and, you know, setting the trails up,” says Meterko. 

He says that while the sport still exists, there’s a worrying change happening that was slow at first and has picked up steam as the winters have warmed up north.

“The demographic itself has changed dramatically,” Meterko said. 

He says the demographic of those buying snowmobiles has shifted from those in their 30s to those well into their 50s. He says those riders have the free time or funds to take the long trips farther north where a good snow base exists in the winter.

Yamaha is also seeing this change. The company announced that model year 2025 will be its last in the snowmobiling business internationally.

“There’s no doubt that the winters have gotten warmer over the last several decades. Not a surprise to anybody who’s lived up here for any length of time,” says Jim Keysor, Meteorologist In Charge at Gaylord’s National Weather Service office. 

He says that the milder setups cause a lack of required snowpack for snowmobiles later into the winter than we saw 20 years ago.

“And what we’re seeing sort of more of a backloaded winter, I guess, is how I describe it. You know, January, February, March, are better,” says Keysor. “November, December, not as good. So certainly, an economic impact on that side.”

That doesn’t mean there isn’t any snow or even that snowfall is below average.

“Maybe surprising to people, we receive almost the same amount of snow that we’ve received really, looking back the last 50 or 75 years, the amount of snow has not really changed all that much,” says Keysor. “It may feel like it’s changed. What has changed, though, is that we’re melting more in between the snow events. We’re seeing more thaws and more rain events in between. And it feels like we’re sort of on this the seesaw.”

The heavy hits of snowfall are a documented sign of warming conditions. It may also be easier to melt because the physical make-up of the snow is more of that wet and heavy type of snowfall. Difficult to move, but faster to melt. This is something actively being researched.

“It’s interesting you mentioned that we’re actually partnering with the University of Michigan right now on a snow study on exactly that topic. And they’ve got some equipment here in our office, which we’re looking at sort of the density of snow that’s falling, and that’s only a couple of years old,” Keysor said. 

Keysor says a big focus is on warmer winters, allowing lake-effect snow to continue to ramp up.

“The lake effect machine actually goes in a very robust fashion. So, a little bit warmer weather, a little warmer winter, does not shut off necessarily. So that is probably one reason why the Great Lakes is one of the only places in the entire country that has actually seen increases or at least steady to an increase in the amount of winter snowfall in almost anywhere in the lower 48,” Keysor said. 

Saying the words “climate change” or talking about how there are signs of things changing brings a robust debate. On that part, Keysor gives a little background specifically for northern Michigan.

“This is not this is not a linear thing. And the climate always changes. So let’s just put a fact on the table. … Can we all agree that if I look through history, climate changes, it does,” says Keysor. “And we know that from ice cores samples. We know that from tree rings, we know that from a lot of different things. We know that. That is weather, and it’s why I got into weather, because it’s changing and volatile and extreme. That’s weather. Do I think humans influence it? In all likelihood, to some degree, yes. The bottom line is warmer winter weather is displaying a track record.”

This impacts snowmobile conditions in the northern mitten, leading many who used to frequent Grayling, Gaylord, Frederic, and Kalkaska to head north of the bridge seeking the perfect powder.

“For the better part of a couple of decades, you could count on December through March being your riding season. We’ve essentially lost December. If we lose another month, then that could be an issue,” says Meterko.

“If we have great snow, we are busy. I mean, we’re as busy as the 4th of July weekend. If we don’t get access, you’re going to keep going up north until you find it.”

While Yamaha is the first to get out of snowmobile sales, it’s important to note they were the lowest provider of recognized snowmobile sales. The next on the list is Arctic Cat, which both Galanter and Meterko believe only has a few years left unless it can keep up with the offerings provided by companies like Ski-Doo and Polaris.