It is draft day, Tigers fans. For the first time in a long, long while, the major league club is intriguing enough to push the draft down the pecking order of events on the calendar. Still the importance of keeping a steady flow of talent into the farm system remains high as ever, and after a well received first draft in 2023, Scott Harris and his scouting department have the opportunity to really set the organization up for the long run with another good haul of baseball talent.

This isn’t a particularly well regarded draft class in terms of high end first rounders, but it may prove very deep in projected rather than present talent. Teams strategy with their full bonus pool may prove more important than their top two selections. And because there aren’t so many true standouts in the first round, there remains a lot of debate beyond the top handful of players. Perhaps even more than is usual, we can expect surprises.

The 2023 MLB amateur draft begins at 5:00 p.m. ET on Sunday. The Tigers have the 11th overall pick, with a bonus pool of $11,921,800. The Cleveland Guardians have the first overall pick due to winning the lottery despite finishing with the eighth worst record in 2023, and a bonus pool of $18,334,000 to spend. The Texas Rangers pick 30th, but the Houston Astros have the lowest bonus pool and forfeiting a second rounder to sign Josh Hader.

The Tigers had the third overall pick in 2023 and had a pool of $15,747,200 to spend, by comparison. The Pirates picked Paul Skenes first overall in 2023—good idea—and had a bonus pool of $16,185,700 last year.

The Tigers first draft under Harris and Rob Metzler and Mark Connor’s leadership of the scouting department looks really good so far. Max Clark and Kevin McGonigle are performing very well, and the Tigers landed a really nice assortment of talented young arms to go with them. Injuries to Carson Rucker, Andrew Dunford, and Brady Cerkownyk were unfortunate, but overall, the Tigers appear to have landed a lot of talented young players to develop. They showed creativity and they pushed for upside, betting that they could make the money work to sign a lot of prep talent out of college commitments, and they did.

It’s always possible that a player generally mocked in the top ten that the Tigers like falls to them at eleven. In such a case, maybe they worry less about their overall bonus pool and make sure they get the player. Still, barring a Bryce Rainier or Nick Kurtz dropping out of the top ten picks, it wouldn’t be a surprise for the club to partially prioritize getting a first rounder they know they can sign well underslot, and trying to take some bigger swings over the next few rounds on talented players whose signability is in question. That’s pretty sound strategy, particularly if they’re not that enamored with the options available to them as things unfold tonight.

Let’s take a look at the most likely selections for the Tigers based on a various mock drafts. Then I’ll throw in an idea I like at the end.

Konnor Griffin SS/OF – Jackson Prep, Flowood, MS

If the Tigers get a crack at anyone who gets mocked in the top ten pretty consistently, it’s 18-year-old Konnor Griffin. The 6’4”, 210 pound right-handed hitter has outstanding tools with serious speed and power, good plate discipline, and a huge throwing arm that had him scouted as a pitcher as well. He’s raw, and there’s plenty of risk that his pitch recognition doesn’t develop enough, but the Tigers probably aren’t going to get their hands on another player with this much upside in the draft.

MLB Pipeline has Griffin going to the Tigers in their latest mock draft. Baseball America has Griffin going to the Pirates at number nine. Prospects Live has Griffin at fifth overall to the Chicago White Sox in their latest mock draft. But of all the players consistently linked to Tigers interest, Griffin is the one who has the most first round grades, with Prospects Live calling him the best prep player in the country and the most bullish on his hit tool.

It’s hard to imagine a team that took Max Clark over Wyatt Langford passing up on Griffin’s mix of risk and upside should he fall to them, but they’re not going to save money that way.

LHP Cam Caminiti – Saguaro HS, Scottsdale, AZ

The idea of taking a high school pitcher many years away from contributing at the major league level and with one of the riskier profiles to draft isn’t exactly music to Tigers fans ears. Yet Caminiti has been the most consistently linked player to the Tigers over the last two months. Baseball America reports that the Tigers were aggressively scouting Caminiti all spring.

ECU right-hander Trey Yesavage is usually ranked above Caminiti in pitcher rankings, with William Schmidt elbowing his way into the mix as a late riser, but there’s plenty of debate in how different sites and scouts order those three in the draft.

The 6’4” 205 pound left-hander won’t turn 18 for a few months. He’s up to 98 occasionally with a good riding fastball, though he sits more in the 94-95 range. He has a solid slider-curveball combination, but neither consistently pops plus yet. A changeup is further away but there are some positive assessments of his potential to dial that in over time in the right organization. Caminiti has good armspeed and is a powerful athlete with the agility to develop plus command.

That’s a lot of arm for a young lefty, and the Tigers are obviously a good organization for developing pitchers. If they decide to go this route, it’s hard to argue too much with the fit for the organization and their potential to build him up and teach him a good changeup. They might have an excellent southpaw in a few years. However, he’s a full grade below the level of a Jackson Jobe, whom they drafted third overall in 2021, and I wouldn’t be super thrilled with this personally unless they got Caminiti well underslot and were able to parlay that money into another prep bonanza.

SS/OF Seaver King – Wake Forest

Wake Forest shortstop Seaver King hasn’t been directly linked to the Tigers much, but he does show up at number 11 in FanGraphs draft rankings, as well as Prospects Live’s final mock draft.

Tigers’ President of Baseball Ops, Scott Harris, has repeatedly emphasized athleticism and plate discipline in his hierarchy of needs for position prospects. King certainly has the former attributes, with power, speed, and the defensive ability to be an above average shortstop at the major league level. He does a lot of things well, but he is more of a free swinger with pitch recognition questions, which doesn’t exactly fit the “control the strike zone” mantra of the club.

King already has the power, speed, and athleticism to be a factor defensively. It’s possible he’s not an every day shortstop, but he’s a dynamic athlete and while raw, could develop into an outstanding defender on the left side of the infield.

The bat to ball skills are fairly good, but King can be overpowered and needs to keep getting stronger and simplifying his stroke. That might go a long way to improving his ability to handle better fastballs and still crush his hangers.

This doesn’t really feel like a Tigers pick to me, but who knows. For decades the Tigers have rarely taken shortstops in the draft and the position has been a problem most years since Alan Trammell retired. King does have plenty of upside if he can stick at shortstop or with his speed transition to playing the outfield.

In King’s favor is quality performance last summer with wood bats in the Cape Cod league, a strong college track record, and a really good mix of tools and athleticism to try and develop. There’s just a lot of potential for drafting a player who is too aggressive and free swinging to ever get to his power at the big league level. King’s tools do give him a pretty good floor as a toolsy utility man, and so he probably won’t slip too much further if the Tigers decide to pass on him. The fit feels a little off based on last year’s draft but King is plenty of player to land with the Tigers first pick.

3B Cam Smith – Florida State

As my friend Chris Brown of Tigers Minor League Report regularly reminds us, college third basemen have the highest hit rate of any type of player in the draft. If the Tigers decide to track with past performance, Florida State third baseman Cam Smith makes a good amount of sense.

The 6’3” 221 pound 21-year-old had a huge sophomore year for the Seminoles. He walked nearly as much as he struck out, and launched 16 home runs and 39 total extra base hits in just 66 games. Smith is a big, powerful athlete whose outstanding agility stands out for his build, and he brings that athleticism to the plate with serious thump.

Smith may continue to fill out, limiting his third base projection eventually, but he’s pretty good there right now. His swing is short and explosive, and he really improved his pitch selection this season, cooling some of the bigger concerns about this ability to eventually hit at the highest level. There’s still some real variance of opinion about Smith’s hands and plate coverage, and it feels like he could go anywhere between seven or eight and the twentieth pick.

There’s nothing really to link the Tigers to Cam Smith, and Harris and his scouting department feel like they’ll go prep if one of their preferred prep prospects falls to them. Smith makes a pretty good fallback plan, particularly as they can probably save some money here.

OF/RHP Carson Benge – Oklahoma State

Another good college hitter generally pegged to go within a few spots of the Tigers 11th overall pick is Carson Benge. There aren’t any particular rumors linking the Tigers to Benge either, but he’s usually mocked between 15-20. Prospects Live does have him dropping to the Twins at 21. MLB Pipeline says he goes to the Brewers with the 17th overall pick. Just about all the major sites have the Tigers taking someone else and Benge going a few picks later.

Benge is a good potential right fielder with a big arm who is a pretty good pitching prospect in his own right. He’s not particularly large, but his other tools stand out well above the other college hitters likely to available to the Tigers. He’s expected to be an above average hitter and outfielder by MLB Pipeline. Benge was red-shirted and missed the 2022 season with Tommy John surgery, then re-emerged in 2023 as the best two-way player in college baseball. He mashed 18 home runs in 61 games as a sophomore in 2024, walking nearly as much as he struck out.

The right-handed pitcher also struck out 42 hitters in 36 innings with a 2.75 ERA, but it would probably be only a few teams who would really consider continuing with him as a two-way player.

The left-handed hitter has a smooth, powerful swing and makes a lot of contact in the zone. He offers a really nice mix of speed, power, contact ability, and plate discipline. He’s also young for his class with a pretty projectible, lanky frame that can reasonably be expected to add muscle in pro ball. He may have more upside remaining than most of the other college hitters expected to go in the middle of the first round.

There’s some question about Benge’s zone coverage and he’ll have to get stronger and quicker to the ball to handle top shelf velocity, but there’s plenty of potential upside here, and the risk isn’t as high as most of the players we’ve mentioned. Still, as there are no real ties to the Tigers rumored anywhere, it would be a bit of a surprise if Benge was their pick.

OF/SS Theo Gillen – Westlake HS, Austin TX

Now let me throw in one out of the blue pick I like.

No one is mocking Theo Gillen to the Detroit Tigers. For the most part he’s drawing late round projections, with the Astros being a popular destination among prognosticators. I just continue to wonder if the Tigers will decide the first rounders available at 11 aren’t terribly appealing compared to other years. In that case, they could try to go down the board and sign a talented player with a lot of upside well underslot, and spread their bonus pool around throughout the top five or ten rounds.

Gillen might be the perfect option in that case. Widely mocked late in the first round, Gillen has tools on the same caliber as the top prep hitters in the class, but injuries have held him back somewhat. He might be an outstanding candidate to buy a little low on if the Tigers want to try and save a good chunk of coin.

Gillen has a really nice, compact left-handed stroke and makes a ton of hard contact. He has the build to project future above average power, and he’s potentially a good enough pure hitter to get to all of it while playing a solid shortstop.

His actions will have to improve to stick at shortstop, but he has the speed to play center field and some feel that’s his likely endpoint. He should at very least make a good second baseman, which would be plenty if the pitch recognition develops and he can get to his power as he develops.

Personally, I feel like Gillen is pretty close to Bryce Rainer and Konnor Griffin in terms of present skills, and he just looks likely to hit. Gillen creates good bat angles to drive pitches in all parts of the zone, shows very good zone discipline already, and should continue to get a lot stronger into his 20’s with a chance of eventual plus power production. He offers a considerable bargain even if there are still plenty of questions about where in the middle of the field he’ll be best suited to play.

Gillen still seems likely to go in the last third of the first round. But whether you like him or not, or whether the Tigers consider this route or not, he’s a good example of the fact that much of the first round consists of comparable players. Unless someone really falls out of the first round to the Tigers, there are a lot of ways they might go. The ability to get a discount on one of these players may well be the decisive factor if the Tigers want to try and repeat their aggressive, prep-heavy approach from last season.