Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians prediction, pick for Friday 7/3/26

After stealing the opening tilt of this four-game set on Thursday with a walk-off home run in the ninth, the Guardians once again find themselves sitting in a tie with the White Sox atop the AL Central.

It might only be July, but don’t be fooled. This is a massive series with hugely important playoff implications.

Can Cleveland take a second in a row? Or will Chicago bounce-back on Friday? Let’s preview this divisional clash and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.

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White Sox vs. Guardians prediction, preview

To me, Gavin Williams is one of the most frustrating starting pitchers in the sport. If you watch the hulking right-hander throw for even just an inning, you’ll wonder why he isn’t a perpetual All-Star. That’s how good the stuff can look at any given moment. However, the results and consistency always leave you wanting more. 2026 has been a perfect example. On the one hand, Williams owns a respectable 3.81 ERA and a career-high 28.3% strikeout rate. On the other, Williams’ xERA is a less appealing 4.54 and his 12.2% opponent barrel rate sits in the fifth percentile of the league. Make it make sense. Coming into Friday, Williams hasn’t been in the best form, either. The former 23rd-overall pick posted a 6.04 ERA across his five starts in June, surrendering 2.13 opponent home runs per nine and never once pitching out of the sixth inning. Not ideal.

That said, it’s not like Anthony Kay has been all that much better. The former NPB star has had his moments this season — including tossing six scoreless innings against the Guardians back on June 22 — but for the most part, Kay’s struggled back in North America. Over 17 appearances and 80.0 innings, Kay sports a 12th percentile xERA (5.40) and just a 19th percentile strikeout rate (17.7%). Kay’s also been particularly poor on the road, registering a 6.40 ERA and 6.55 FIP within the split. The LHP’s one redeeming quality has been his ability to neutralize opposing left-handed bats, which is actually a skill that should come in handy versus Cleveland. Between Travis Bazzana, Chase DeLauter and Steven Kwan, the Guardians have a lot of everyday LHBs. In fact, the team ranks fifth in left-on-left plate appearances in 2026 (435).

That inflexibility is part of the reason why the Guardians are once again having issues with run production. Obviously an injury to Jose Ramirez (wrist) also isn’t helping too much in that regard. Over the past 30 days, Cleveland is hitting just .219 as a club — the worst mark in the American League. The Guardians’ .282 expected wOBA and 81 wRC+ are the lowest figures in the AL in that span, as well. A team that willingly traded real assets this season for Patrick Bailey is floundering offensively? I can’t believe it. I’m truly shocked.

White Sox vs. Guardians pick, best bet

Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-128)

The thought process here is two-fold. First and foremost, the Guardians have been the worst-hitting team in the AL for the past month by average (.219), expected wOBA (.282) and wRC+ (81). Secondly, I’ll bank on the upside of Gavin Williams, whose best start in June did come against the White Sox, when he allowed two earned runs and struck out eight over five frames.

Strong Lean: NRFI (-140)

It’s the under — but quicker! The left-handed Anthony Kay should have the advantage early on, with so many LHBs at the top of Cleveland’s lineup. Meanwhile, Williams sports a 2.74 ERA and a 3.19 FIP when pitching at home in 2026.