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The U.S. is facing a severe housing shortage. Will Trump's proposals help?

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The U.S. is facing a severe housing shortage. Will Trump's proposals help?

Construction of this $1 billion luxury real estate development in Los Angeles stalled in 2019 after a China-based developer ran out of funding, leaving the three-tower project unfinished amid a housing crisis in the city.

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Mario Tama/Getty Images

Heading into 2025, housing remains one of the most important issues on the minds of millions of Americans. For many, the dream of owning, or even renting, a place of their own is in peril. In some cities, people are paying $1 million for “starter” homes, while about half of renters are spending more than 30% of their income on housing.

Ben Keys, an economist with the University of Pennsylvania Wharton School, characterizes the current market as “deeply unaffordable.” Keys traces some of the current problems back to the financial crisis of 2008.

“We saw a collapse in construction, and so we just stopped building houses, we stopped building apartments for a few years there,” he says. “Now we’re seeing estimates of as much as four million houses that we’re short.”

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Keys notes that new construction is occurring “at a snail’s pace,” due, in part, to the high cost of labor and materials and the difficulty of financing large projects. He says that zoning laws and land use restrictions can also contribute to a housing shortage: “[These] policies create a lot of hoops to jump through and make it challenging for developers who would like to build at the scale where they would like to build.”

President-elect Donald Trump has suggested opening up federal land for development, but Keys questions the practicality of the plan.

“When we’re thinking about this federal land out west, I’m pretty skeptical that we’re going to see, you know, cities spring up out of whole cloth,” he says. “Federal land seems promising, but as a solution to our affordability crisis, I just don’t see it.”

Interview highlights

On what Trump’s proposed tariffs on imports, including construction materials, would do to the housing market

Basically, if we’re going to raise the costs of construction materials, that’s going to raise the cost of building a home. Now, a lot of the materials that are used for construction are domestic. So we do have a lot of those in the U.S., but we also import a number of construction materials like lumber for things that would be covered under NAFTA from Canada. But the simple math is that if we are going to impose additional tariffs on building materials, it’s going to be more expensive to build rather than less expensive to build.

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On what Trump’s proposed mass deportations might mean for housing 

I don’t think that there is a strong connection between this idea of removing immigrants from our country and making housing more affordable. And there’s a couple of reasons for this. One is that immigrants and undocumented immigrants make up a large fraction of the construction workforce. … And so it is going to make labor costs more expensive to build, and that’s going to drive up the cost of housing.

The trade off there, from a housing market standpoint — we’re talking about this in a very narrow sense — is that there will be fewer people in this sort of numbers game of supply and demand. But if we think about the types of housing that immigrants and undocumented immigrants tend to locate in, they tend to be renters and they tend to locate in low-income neighborhoods. Now, of course, that’s not uniformly true, but that’s where they are concentrated. And so if we’re thinking about the high cost of homeownership, removing undocumented immigrants from the pool of potential homebuyers is simply not going to move the needle on affordability.

On how climate change is contributing to the rise in costs for homeowners 

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I think there’s a very direct line to be drawn between rising climate risks and the costs of homeownership in the form of property insurance. … In just the last three years, 2020 to 2023, my research with Phil Mulder has shown that property insurance has gone up by over 33% on average in the U.S., and over 50% in the areas of the country most exposed to climate risk. … The places that might come to mind are places like Florida in the Gulf Coast, wildfire zones in California, but also some parts of Oklahoma where they’re hit with a lot of hail storms and tornadoes. And there we’ve seen big run-ups in property insurance costs. And so what this has done is it’s made the sort of predictability of home ownership a little bit less predictable. …

I worry a lot for homeowners who had bought on a fixed income or were sort of constrained in how much they could afford and now they’re seeing their insurance costs rise sharply. And so this is a reflection of climate change … which is inducing more frequent and more severe disasters. But it’s also a function of mobility patterns. And where we’ve moved in this country over the last really 50 years, we’ve been moving into the danger zones. We’ve been moving into harm’s way.

On how the housing crisis impacts homelessness 

The number of extremely affordable rental units has plummeted in recent years, and this ties back into a housing shortage. Where does that housing shortage squeeze the most? It’s going to squeeze the most at the very bottom of the property ladder. Landlords who previously offered very affordable units have seen a great deal of demand for those units. They’re able to raise the rents. And so we’ve seen a lot of people fall off the bottom of the rental market, and that’s led to a ton of pressure, especially in expensive markets, and I think in many ways the diagnosis is quite clear that we have this supply-and-demand imbalance.

And so the cure is that we need more housing, that we need to prioritize housing. And this has been taken up with what’s been known as a “Housing First” strategy for dealing with homelessness. … With the Biden administration, there’s been an emphasis on this strategy, a recognition that many of the additional challenges that these households face can only be addressed once they’re in a stable housing environment. And there have been a number of pilot programs around the country that have borne this out.

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On advice he would give to people who are debating whether or not it’s a good time to buy a home

First, do your homework and figure out the cost of housing in the market that you’re looking in, both for owning and for renting. I think it makes a lot of sense to continue to rent in markets where prices are high and interest rates are high. In many cases … you’d be better off putting your savings into something that’s delivering a safe, predictable return that might be more safe and predictable than returns on housing. So from an investment standpoint, investing elsewhere is very sensible.

And then, I think, as you’re approaching the decision to buy a house, think long term, because there are large fixed costs to buying a house in terms of transaction taxes and in terms of broker fees, title insurance and other costs that need to be rolled into that cost. When you’re doing an apples-to-apples comparison, the right comparison isn’t just comparing the mortgage payment to the monthly rent. And then on top of that, there’s a challenge with rising insurance costs and property taxes. And so you need to take a view on “Can I afford the property insurance, flood insurance, wind insurance, other (or supplemental) insurance policies in a few years when those may be more expensive than they are today?” So I think it takes a more careful budgeting approach than we’ve seen in the past. And, in many of those cases, my sense is that that’s going to come out on the rental side of the ledger rather than owning, given our current affordability crisis.

Monique Nazareth and Anna Bauman produced and edited this interview for broadcast. Bridget Bentz, Molly Seavy-Nesper and Catherine Laidlaw adapted it for the web.

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Sunday Puzzle: P-A-R-T-Y words and names

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Sunday Puzzle: P-A-R-T-Y words and names

On-air challenge

Today I’ve brought a game of ‘Categories’ based on the word “party.” For each category I give, you tell me something in it starting with each of the letters, P-A-R-T-Y.  For example, if the category were “Four-Letter Boys’ Names” you might say Paul, Adam, Ross, Tony, and Yuri. Any answer that works is OK, and you can give answers in any order.

1. Colors

2. Major League Baseball Teams

3. Foreign Rivers

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4. Foods for a Thanksgiving Meal

Last week’s challenge

I was at a library. On the shelf was a volume whose spine said “OUT TO SEA.” When I opened the volume, I found the contents has nothing to do with sailing or the sea in any sense. It wasn’t a book of fiction either. What was in the volume?

Challenge answer

It was a volume of an encyclopedia with entries from OUT- to SEA-.

Winner

Mark Karp of Marlboro Township, N.J.

This week’s challenge

This week’s challenge comes from Joseph Young, of St. Cloud, Minn. Think of a two-syllable word in four letters. Add two letters in front and one letter behind to make a one-syllable word in seven letters. What words are these?

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If you know the answer to the challenge, submit it below by Wednesday, December 31 at 3 p.m. ET. Listeners whose answers are selected win a chance to play the on-air puzzle.

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L.A. Affairs: We were just newlyweds when an emergency room visit tested our vows

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L.A. Affairs: We were just newlyweds when an emergency room visit tested our vows

“I’m his wife,” I said to the on-call doctor, asserting my place in the cramped exam room. It was a label I’d only recently acquired. A year ago, it had seemed silly to obtain government proof of what we’d known to be true for six years: We were life partners. Now I was so grateful we signed that piece of paper.

Earlier that morning, I’d driven my husband to an ER in Torrance for what we’d assumed was a nasty flu or its annoying bacterial equivalent. We’d imagined a round of industrial-grade antibiotics, and then heading home in time for our 3-year-old’s usual bath-time routine.

But the doctor’s face was serious. Machines beeped and whirred as my husband laid on the hospital bed. Whatever supernatural power colloquially known as a “gut feeling” flat-lined in my stomach.

“It’s leukemia,” she said, putting a clinical end to what had been our honeymoon period.

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Only six months earlier, a female Elvis impersonator had declared us husband and wife. A burlesque dancer pressed her cleavage into both of our faces as our friends cheered and threw dollar bills. A wedding in Vegas was my idea.

After two years of dating Marty, a cute roller hockey player with an unwavering moral compass, I knew I wanted to have a child with him. It was marriage, not commitment, that unnerved me. I wanted romance, freedom and to do things my way. The word “wife” induced an allergic reaction.

As Marty and I became parents and navigated adulthood together, my resistance to matrimony started to feel like an outdated quirk. The emotional equivalent of a person still rocking a septum piercing long after they stopped listening to punk music.

Marty had shown me, over and over, what it was to be a teammate. He’d rubbed my back through hours of labor, made late-night runs for infant Tylenol and was never afraid to cry at the sad parts of movies or take the occasional harsh piece of feedback about his communication style. And like all good teams, we kicked ass together. So why was I still resisting something that meant so much to him? To our family?

One random Saturday, at the Hawthorne In-N-Out Burger, after Marty ordered fries as a treat for our son, I finally said, “Screw it. Let’s get married.”

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The wedding day was raucous and covered in glitter. We both wore white. Our son’s jacket had a roaring tiger stitched onto the back and was layered over his toddler-size tuxedo T-shirt. Loved ones from all over the country flew to meet us in a tiny pink chapel. A neon heart buzzed over our heads as we vowed to “love each other in sickness and in health, till death do us part.”

I couldn’t have imagined then that the next chapel I’d be in would be the hospital prayer room. Or that I would have begged a God I struggle to believe in to please spare Marty’s life.

Unlike our decision to marry, acute leukemia came on suddenly. Over the course of a few weeks, Marty’s bone marrow had flooded his blood with malignant cells. Treatment was urgent. He was taken by ambulance from the ER to the City of Hope hospital in Duarte, a part of Los Angeles County we’d never had a reason to visit before.

Traditionally the 50th wedding anniversary is celebrated with gold, the 25th with silver and the first with paper. But we couldn’t even afford to look paper-far-ahead anymore. Instead, we celebrated that the specific genetic modifiers of Marty’s cancer were treatable, the good chemo days and his being able to walk to the hospital lobby to see our son for the first time in weeks.

Leukemia has taught me things such as: how to inject antifungal medication into the open PICC (peripherally inserted central catheter) line in Marty’s veins, how to explain to our son that “Papa will be sleeping with the doctors for a long while so they can help him feel better” and that to do the hibbity-dibbity with a person going through chemo, you must wear a condom. But mostly my husband’s sickness has taught me about healthy love.

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When we had a child together, we’d committed to being in each other’s lives forever. But marriage was different. We’d already made a promise to our son, but when we got married, we made one to each other and ourselves. We had gone all in.

Since his diagnosis two months ago, there have been so many ways we’ve shown love for each other. People assume that I would do all the caregiving, but it’s more than that. Yes, I’ve washed my husband’s feet when he couldn’t bend down, been the only parent at preschool dropoff and pickup, and advocated on Marty’s behalf to his health insurance with only a few choice expletives.

But my husband has also taken care of me. Even when he was nauseous, sweating and fatigued, Marty showed up. He made me laugh with macabre jokes about how the only way for us to watch anything other than “PAW Patrol” on TV together was for him to get hospitalized. He insisted that I make time to rest and bring him the car owner’s manual, so he could figure out why the check engine light had come on.

We’d promised in front of our closest friends and Elvis herself to love each other “for better or worse.” And when the worst arrived sooner than expected, we did more than love. We truly cared for each other as husband and wife.

The author is a writer whose short stories have been nominated for the PEN/Robert J. Dau Short Story Prize for Emerging Writers and Best of the Net. She is working on a novel and lives in Redondo Beach with her husband and son. She’s on Instagram: @RachelReallyChapman.

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L.A. Affairs chronicles the search for romantic love in all its glorious expressions in the L.A. area, and we want to hear your true story. We pay $400 for a published essay. Email LAAffairs@latimes.com. You can find submission guidelines here. You can find past columns here.

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This painting is missing. Do you have it?

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This painting is missing. Do you have it?

The missing 1916 painting Music, by Gabriele Münter. Its whereabouts have been unknown to the public since 1977. Oil on canvas. (Private collection. © 2025 Artists Rights Society (ARS), New York/VG Bild-Kunst, Bonn)

The Guggenheim, New York


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The Guggenheim, New York

This is a story about a missing painting, from an artist you may never have heard of. Though she helped shape European modern art, German artist Gabriele Münter’s work was quickly overshadowed in the public’s mind by her 12-year relationship with noted abstract artist Wassily Kandinsky.

She met Kandinsky in Munich in 1902, and with his tutoring, she “mastered color as well as the line,” she told a German public broadcaster in 1957. Together with other artists, they founded an avant-garde arts collective called Der Blaue Reiter (The Blue Rider) in 1911.

Wassily Kandinsky's "Painting With White Border" (Bild mit weißem Rand), 1913.

Wassily Kandinsky’s Painting With White Border (Bild mit weißem Rand), 1913. Oil on canvas, Guggenheim Museum, New York City.

Allison Chipak/The Guggenheim, New York

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Allison Chipak/The Guggenheim, New York

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At the time, most modern artists, like Kandinsky, were moving toward more and more abstract work. Not Münter. In her paintings, people look like people and flowers look like flowers. But her dazzling colors, simplified forms and dramatic scenes are startlingly fresh; her domestic scenes are so immediate that they feel like you’ve interrupted a crucial, private moment.

“Gabriele Münter was so pioneering, so adventurous in her adherence to life,” said Megan Fontanella, curator of modern art and provenance at the Guggenheim Museum in New York City. “She is revitalizing the still life, the landscape, the portrait genres, and presenting them in these really fresh and dynamic ways.”

Yet, perhaps due to her relationship with Kandinsky, her work was rarely collected by important museums after her death in 1962 (she herself said she was seen as “an unnecessary side dish” to him), and so her paintings largely disappeared from the public eye.

Now Münter is having a moment, with exhibitions this year in Madrid and Paris, as well as one currently at the Guggenheim in New York. The New York show is an expansive one and includes American street photography in the late 1890s, alongside over 50 paintings, from her dazzlingly colored European landscapes to portraits capturing the expressive faces of people she knew.

Gabriele Münter's "Self-Portrait in Front of an Easel" (Selbstbildnis vor der Staffelei), circa 1908-1909.

Gabriele Münter’s Self-Portrait in Front of an Easel (Selbstbildnis vor der Staffelei), circa 1908-1909. Oil on canvas. (© 2025 Artists Rights Society (ARS), New York/VG Bild-Kunst, Bonn)

Bruce M. White/Princeton University Art Museum/Art Resource, N.Y.

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Bruce M. White/Princeton University Art Museum/Art Resource, N.Y.

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Yet, when Fontanella was putting “Gabriele Münter: Contours of a World” together, there was one painting she couldn’t find: Music, from 1916.

In it, a violinist is playing in the center of a yellow room, with two people quietly listening. It’s set in a living room — but because it uses her wild colors and flattened figures, it feels vibrant and dramatic, not cozy or saccharine.

Fontanella said this painting is important because it provides a window into Münter’s life after she separated from Kandinsky, who had gone on to marry someone else. She was struggling financially, and she was no longer the promising young person she once was. But Fontanella said the painting shows she had found a new creative circle.

“There’s something really uplifting about that. You know, it speaks to her resilience, her sense of adaptation,” Fontanella said. Instead of showing those years as dark and challenging, it is serene and warm, joyful. “I think that’s really important because especially with a woman artist, it’s so easy to get tripped up in her biography and really see it colored by her romantic relationships when, in fact, the paintings tell a different story.”

Fontanella said she used every tool available to her to find Music. She worked with Münter’s foundation and contacted owners of collections in Europe and the United States, from institutions to private collectors. She read correspondence and catalogs from past exhibitions.

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Gabriele Münter's "From the Griesbräu Window" (Vom Griesbräu Fenster), 1908.

Gabriele Münter’s From the Griesbräu Window (Vom Griesbräu Fenster), 1908. Painting on board. (© 2025 Artists Rights Society (ARS), New York/VG Bild-Kunst, Bonn)

Städtische Galerie im Lenbachhaus und Kunstbau München, on permanent loan from the Gabriele Münter and Johannes Eichner Foundation, Munich


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Städtische Galerie im Lenbachhaus und Kunstbau München, on permanent loan from the Gabriele Münter and Johannes Eichner Foundation, Munich

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It’s not unusual for art to vanish from public view if it’s not held at an institution. Private collectors often want to keep their holdings quiet. If they don’t sell a particular work at an auction or lend it to a museum, only a very small number of people might know that it still exists and where it is.

Fontanella was able to trace Music to its last known owner — a German collector named Eugen Eisenmann, who had the painting in 1977.

“There was a moment where the collection was starting to be broken apart and dispersed and no longer being held by subsequent relatives or family members,” she said.

Then the trail ended.

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Not the end of the story

But just because the painting hasn’t surfaced yet doesn’t mean it never will. Take the story of a piece called There are combustibles in every State, which a spark might set fire to. —Washington, 26 December 1786, depicting Shays’ Rebellion, one of 30 works in the Struggle series by artist Jacob Lawrence. A 2020 traveling exhibition organized by the Peabody Essex Museum in Salem, Mass., had brought the works together for the first time in 60 years.

Five of the paintings couldn’t be located, and the curators put placeholders where those paintings should have been: black-and-white photographs of the canvases if they existed, blank spaces if they didn’t.

“We didn’t have any image of it. There really was no trace,” said Sylvia Yount, the curator in charge of the American Wing at the Metropolitan Museum of Art. She co-curated the Met’s presentation of the exhibition with curator Randall Griffey. “We had decided to leave the missing panels as kind of an absence, to really underline the absence. There was a blank on the wall.”

And, then, the miracle.

A visitor to the exhibition went home, contacted a friend “and said, ‘I think you might have one of these missing panels,’” Yount explained.

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The friend did. When Yount, Griffey and art conservator Isabelle Duvernois went to see the painting — which was just across Central Park from the Met in an apartment on the Upper West Side — “we walked in and immediately knew it was right,” Yount said.

Within about two weeks, it was hanging in the exhibition. Incredibly, not long later, a second panel was found. Because that one needed some conservation work and a new frame, it didn’t join the series at the Met, but it did become part of the show later as it traveled across the United States.

That kind of thing “doesn’t happen every day,” Yount said, laughing.

Could it happen again?

But Fontanella hopes that it could happen for Münter’s painting. She included a photograph of it in the catalog so that people would know what to look for.

“What I always hope with stories like this is that the painting will resurface in its own time, you know, when it wants to be discovered,” Fontanella said. “But there’s been so much genuine interest in Gabriele Münter as an artist, as a person, that I feel it’s only just on the horizon that this painting will come to light.”

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Gabriele Münter: Contours of a World” is on view at the Guggenheim in New York through April 2026.

Ciera Crawford edited this story for broadcast and digital. Chloee Weiner mixed the audio.

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