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Stock market psychology and behavioural finance: What investors should know

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Stock market psychology and behavioural finance: What investors should know
Financial success is not a hard science. It’s a soft skill, where how you behave is more important than what you know. While everybody is looking at the same stock prices, same charts and has access to the same balance sheets and management commentary, not everybody has the same outcome in their trading and investing journey. This boils down to the single most important factor responsible for all the outcomes – our psychology and the subsequent behaviour that is driven by this.Most often than not this happens due to our existing beliefs and blind spots which most of us don’t even know that they exist. Below are a couple few psychological/sentiment indicators that can help you decode various phases of the market:

VIX: this index generates a projection of volatility, which can show the speed and range of changing prices over a period. Investors may use the VIX to gauge market sentiment, specifically how fearful market participants feel.

Put-call Ratio: This ratio analyses the volume/oi of puts, or rights to sell an asset, and calls, the rights to buy an asset, over a period. Investors use this ratio to gauge the overall sentiment of the market because it can imply a possible reversal in market trend.

Fear & Greed Index: The fear and greed index is a market sentiment indicator that measures the emotions and psychology of investors in the stock market. It provides an overview of the market of whether market participants are primarily driven by fear or greed at a given time.

Markets may be a voting machine in the short run but they do provide a prism to make us believe what the “group” thinks and this can lead to a variety of biases like “an illusion of being indestructible”, “collective rationalisation” or simply “being blinded to pitfalls”.

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According to behavioural finance theory, there are several types of cognitive biases that can affect an investor’s judgment. Being aware of the most common ones can help you avoid them in order to make more rational decisions after all, It’s not what you do in the markets that matters, but it is what you “don’t do” that counts!

Overconfidence

Most people tend to overestimate their abilities in many areas. When you overestimate how much you know about the market or a specific stock, you’ll be tempted to make risky decisions like trying to time the market, which is trying to predict the best time to buy or sell stocks, or overinvesting in high-risk stocks, which are more likely to lose money.

Herd Mentality

Humans are social animals, so going along with the crowd is in our nature. From the hot new fashion trend everyone is wearing to the crowded restaurant that requires you to make reservations months in advance, people tend to make choices based on what others are doing. In financial markets, however, herd mentality can lead to asset bubbles, which is when the price of an asset like a stock rises rapidly but will eventually fall, and market crashes, which occur when a lot of investors sell off their stock.

Loss Aversion

People feel the pain of a loss more acutely than the euphoria of a win, even if they win more than they lose. In financial terms, investors will often hold onto stocks they should sell to avoid realizing a loss. Conversely, they may sell too early to avoid further losses, when waiting for a market rebound would be the better option. Often investors with a strong loss aversion bias have portfolios that are too conservative, underperforming market norms.

Confirmation

Confirmation bias explains how two people with opposing viewpoints can hear the same information, and each comes away believing it supports their opinion. When you have a firmly-held belief, you give heavier weight to evidence supporting your belief while minimizing evidence contradicting it. In finance, confirmation bias can lead you to overlook investment strategies or assets that fall outside of your bubble, causing you to miss significant growth opportunities. You may also invest too heavily in one area because you haven’t fully analysed the risks.

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Behavioural Investing

While biases are a critical component in behavioural finance, there are other key elements in the theory, as well.

Heuristics

Heuristics is the process of simplifying a problem when you don’t have enough information to make a “perfect” decision. In these instances, you’re likely to use a shortcut or rule-of-thumb to make a decision that feels right. Heuristics simplify the decision-making process, which means they simplify the financial decision making process, as well. Without them, you’d have to spend much more time making decisions. However, relying on heuristics without carefully analysing investment options can lead to irrational or incorrect decisions.

Mental Accounting

In mental accounting, you place different values on money based on how you obtained it. If you buy a winning lottery ticket, for instance, you might blow it all on a spontaneous shopping spree even though you carefully budget your paycheck. This can lead to irrational financial decisions.

Anchoring

Anchoring is a type of heuristics that involves subconsciously using irrelevant information as a reference point. Historical values are common anchors. For example, if you bought a stock for Rs. 100 but it starts losing its value, you may be tempted to hold onto it because you don’t want to sell it for less. Salespeople take advantage of anchoring by starting negotiations at far above market value. The inflated price serves as an anchor, so when they come down, it’ll seem like a good deal.

Successful Trading and Investing requires a lot more than having the right process and discipline. In the long run, the hardest financial skill is getting the goalpost to stop moving.

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Finance

G7 Recommits to Development, Investment Finance to Drive Shared Prosperity

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G7 Recommits to Development, Investment Finance to Drive Shared Prosperity
In a message of “convergence and unity in response to multiple crises,” the Group of 7 (G7) leaders from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the US, together with the EU, have agreed to foster mutually beneficial international partnerships.

The G7 Leaders’ Summit took place in Évia

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Finance

Protecting Bolivia’s forest watersheds with sustainable finance

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Protecting Bolivia’s forest watersheds with sustainable finance

Why financing matters for forest restoration 

Over the past several years, Armonía and local communities have made significant progress restoring parts of the Tunari protected area. To date they have planted 1.25 million trees, with more than half of these planted in the Tiquipaya municipality. Community wildfire brigades have been strengthened, reservoirs built to secure water, and new systems created for communities to participate in watershed management.

One of the most important actions was strengthening the structure and function of a watershed governance body, known as Organismo de Gestión de Cuencas (OGC). This coordinates restoration activities and helps design sustainable development strategies for the communities living in the park, helping rebuild trust between them, park authorities and conservation organisations. Women leaders have played an important role in shaping this work. 

However, a major challenge was highlighted – restoration takes decades, but most conservation funding arrives through short-term projects. Without stable long-term financing, restoration gains are difficult to maintain. 

Community members have helped plant more than a million trees in Tiquipaya © Asociación Armonía.

How the financing model would work 

The proposed PES mechanism would collect small contributions directed into a transparent trust fund with independent governance. Resources would then be invested in three main areas: 

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  • Forest restoration and protection – Communities would receive incentives for protecting existing forest and payments tied to successful restoration outcomes. 
  • Community sustainable development – Investments would support livelihood activities that reduce pressure on the forest, such as sustainable agriculture, water management and local enterprises. 
  • Strengthening park management – Funds would help support ranger capacity, wildfire prevention and long-term monitoring within Tunari National Park. 

For communities, the system recognises their role as custodians of the watershed. For urban residents, it offers a practical way to support the ecosystems that provide their water. For public and private partners, it creates a transparent structure for long-term investment in landscape restoration.

Once fully implemented, the mechanism could generate an estimated £3 million per year for watershed protection and restoration.  

Cochabamba, Bolivia © JC Fotografia/Shutterstock

Local people have played a key role by planting saplings in Tunari National Park, Bolivia © Asociación Armonía.

Designing a Payment for Ecosystem Services mechanism  

Over the past two years, Armonía has worked with municipalities, communities and regional institutions to explore how a PES mechanism could work in the Cochabamba region.

The PES concept is straightforward. Communities living in the upper watershed protect and restore forests that provide essential services such as water regulation, erosion control and biodiversity conservation. Downstream users who benefit from these services contribute financially to support that stewardship.

Through the Accelerator process, Armonía undertook studies, assessments and consultations across the Cochabamba metropolitan area’s seven municipalities. Many residents recognised that protecting the forest is directly linked to their water security. Based on these encouraging results, Armonía and their partners are developing a regional trust fund.  

Cochabamba Mountain-finch © Dubi Shapiro.

Building the institutions behind the mechanism 

The financing system is only one piece of the puzzle – strong governance and community participation are also essential. With FIA support, Armonía is now helping communities develop ten-year sustainable development strategies that identify restoration priorities and income opportunities. A multi-stakeholder platform will oversee the initiative and guide decisions, while the park administration is also receiving support to strengthen monitoring, prevent wildfires and improve co-ordination.  

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A new model for watershed protection 

The work underway in Tunari is about more than planting trees. It’s about building a durable system that links ecological restoration, community leadership and long-term financing. Once the mechanism is operational, it could transform how the Tunari watershed is managed. Instead of relying on intermittent  projects, the region would have a locally supported financing system that rewards stewardship and protects the Kewiña forests that has supported life in the Andes for centuries. 

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Finance

Building a scalable finance function at Coca-Cola Europacific Partners

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Building a scalable finance function at Coca-Cola Europacific Partners

Implementing the “Future of Finance Academy”

KPMG in the UK worked with CCEP to co-create a comprehensive learning program for senior managers and associate directors in its finance function. We began by developing a strong understanding of the unique business context in which the company and its finance team operate.

This also helped us determine the best mode of delivery for its globally distributed finance function and identify opportunities to stretch CCEP’s ambitions further.

For example, the KPMG team proposed turning the final module of the course into a showcase presentation. Trainees applied what they had learned to real business challenges and presented their solutions to the board in a business pitch-style competition. Although this added to finance leaders’ already demanding workload, it proved to be one of the course’s most successful elements, enabling participants to put their new skills into practice.

Before work on the Academy began, KPMG developed a detailed plan setting out how the two teams would work together, ensure consistency across the learning modules, maintain quality assurance, and manage changes to scope.

KPMG professionals then collaborated closely with CCEP to co-create bespoke learning content, with CCEP’s senior finance leaders acting as subject matter experts alongside our own finance specialists. 

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