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How to think about earnings estimates during volatile times

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How to think about earnings estimates during volatile times

A version of this post first appeared on TKer.co

Earnings estimates for the next 12 months are rising.

And earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been coming down.

The above statements sound like they’re in conflict. But they are actually two ways of communicating the same information. The differentiating factor: The passage of time.

We often hear analysts talk about earnings estimates based on calendar years. For example, coming into this year Wall Street strategists presented their estimates for 2025 earnings.

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As time passes and information emerges, analysts will adjust those estimates. Historically, analysts tend to gradually revise down these calendar year estimates. And so far, this has been the case in 2025.

However, time can pass quickly. And with calendar year estimates, what was once a discussion about future earnings can quickly become a discussion about past earnings.

For example, at the beginning of the year, 2025 earnings represented the next-12 months’ (NTM) earnings. But it’s April now, which means any discussion of 2025 earnings involves an old quarter, and any discussion of NTM earnings involves a quarter in 2026.

Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson shared a nice side-by-side visualization of this somewhat confusing dynamic. The chart on the left shows the S&P 500’s NTM earnings per share (EPS). As time passes, you can see NTM EPS move up as it continuously incorporates the higher earnings expected in future periods.

The chart on the right shows EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 — static periods in time. As time passes, you can see how analysts’ estimates have moved lower in recent months.

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NTM earnings estimates look good despite calendar year estimates coming down. (Source: Morgan Stanley)

“NTM EPS estimates continue to advance on the back of stronger 2026 EPS growth,” Wilson observed. “However, NTM EPS may show signs of flattening in recent weeks as 2025/2026 estimates revise slightly lower (-1%).”

To be clear, both charts employ the same analysts’ estimates for earnings. They just differ in the way they reflect the effect of the passage of time.

And the two charts are currently telling us that the promise of earnings growth on a rolling future basis is more than offsetting deteriorating expectations for static periods.

This is important in the context of valuation metrics like the forward price-earnings (P/E) ratio. If earnings are expected to grow, then forward earnings (E) will rise as time passes. This leads to downward pressure on P/E ratios.

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As we discussed last week, there are currently a lot of issues with analysts’ earnings estimates. Uncertainty is very high, and there’s evidence that the earnings estimates out there right now are stale.

But again, both visualizations are working off the same estimates. So if we believe the estimates for E is off, discussions about both NTM and calendar year estimates will similarly be off.

The bottom line: Be mindful about what you read and hear about earnings estimates. While it can be helpful to know what’s going on with revisions in certain calendar years, the information for a particular year will become less relevant as time passes. This is why it’s arguably more useful to look to NTM earnings because stock prices are heavily determined by expectations for the future.

There were several notable data points and macroeconomic developments since our last review:

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🛍️ Shopping ticks higher. Retail sales increased 1.4% in March to a record $734.9 billion.

(Source: Census via FRED)

Unfortunately, there’s evidence that recent spending has been boosted by consumers front-running tariffs. The 5.3% jump in car and car parts sales is in line with this trend. From Renaissance Macro’s Neil Dutta: “It’s challenging to get a proper signal from retail sales data at the moment. Households are taking tariffs seriously and we have seen a front running of activity, particularly in consumer durables. Ultimately, follow underlying growth. It’s been softening.”

For more on consumer spending, read: We’re gonna get ambiguous signals in the economic data 😵‍💫 and Americans have money, and they’re spending it 🛍️

💳 Card spending data is holding up. From JPMorgan: “As of 10 Apr 2025, our Chase Consumer Card spending data (unadjusted) was 3.0% above the same day last year. Based on the Chase Consumer Card data through 10 Apr 2025, our estimate of the US Census April control measure of retail sales m/m is 0.50%.”

(Source: JPMorgan)

From BofA: “Total card spending per HH was up 2.3% y/y in the week ending Apr 12, according to BAC aggregated credit & debit card data. Among the categories we show, the biggest gains relative to last week were in entertainment, online electronics & grocery. The increase could be due to a dual boost from upcoming Easter and front-loading due to tariff uncertainty.”

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(Source: BofA)

Similar to March retail sales, April spending is likely being boosted by consumers pulling forward purchases in an attempt to front-run tariffs.

For more on consumer spending, read: We’re gonna get ambiguous signals in the economic data 😵‍💫 and Americans have money, and they’re spending it 🛍️

💼 Unemployment claims tick lower. Initial claims for unemployment benefits declined to 215,000 during the week ending April 12, down from 224,000 the week prior. This metric continues to be at levels historically associated with economic growth.

(Source: DoL via FRED)

For more context, read: A note about federal layoffs 🏛️ and The labor market is cooling 💼

⛽️ Gas prices tick lower. From AAA: “As spring break travel winds down, gas prices are following suit, down five cents since last week. Softer demand is fueling this downward trend, and with crude as low as it’s been in a few years, drivers may continue to see lower pump prices as summer approaches.”

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(Source: AAA)

For more on energy prices, read: Higher oil prices meant something different in the past 🛢️

👎 Inflation expectations heat up. From the New York Fed’s March Survey of Consumer Expectations: “Median inflation expectations increased by 0.5 percentage point to 3.6% at the one-year-ahead horizon, were unchanged at 3.0% at the three-year-ahead horizon, and decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 2.9% at the five-year-ahead horizon.”

(Source: NY Fed)

The introduction of tariffs as proposed by president-elect Donald Trump would be inflationary. For more, read: 5 outstanding issues as President Trump threatens the world with tariffs 😬

👎 New York area managers are worried about the future. From the NY Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey: “Firms expect conditions to worsen in the months ahead, a level of pessimism that has only occurred a handful of times in the history of the survey. The index for future general business conditions fell twenty points to -7.4; the index has fallen a cumulative forty-four points over the past three months. New orders and shipments are expected to fall slightly in the months ahead. Capital spending plans were flat. Input and selling price increases are expected to pick up, and supply availability is expected to worsen over the next six months.”

(Source: NY Fed)

From the NY Fed’s Business Leaders Survey: “After plunging twenty-five points last month, the index for future business activity sank another twenty-three points to -26.6, its lowest reading since April 2020, indicating that firms expect a significant decline in activity in the months ahead. The index for the future business climate also fell twenty-three points, to -50.0, marking its lowest level since 2009 and suggesting the business climate is expected to remain considerably worse than normal. The future employment index turned negative. The future supply availability index dropped to -36.1, with 44 percent of firms expecting supply availability to be worse in six months. Capital spending plans turned sharply negative.”

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(Source: NY Fed)

Keep in mind that during times of perceived stress, soft survey data tends to be more exaggerated than actual hard data.

For more on this, read: What businesses do > what businesses say 🙊

🛠️ Industrial activity ticks lower. Industrial production activity in March declined 0.3% from the prior month. Manufacturing output increased 0.3%.

(Source: Federal Reserve)

For more on economic activity cooling, read: 9 once-hot economic charts that cooled 📉

🔨 New home construction starts fall. Housing starts fell 11.4% in March to an annualized rate of 1.32 million units, according to the Census Bureau. Building permits ticked up 1.6% to an annualized rate of 1.48 million units.

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(Source: Census)

🏠 Homebuilder sentiment ticks up. From the NAHB’s Buddy Hughes: “The recent dip in mortgage rates may have pushed some buyers off the fence in March, helping builders with sales activity. At the same time, builders have expressed growing uncertainty over market conditions as tariffs have increased price volatility for building materials at a time when the industry continues to grapple with labor shortages and a lack of buildable lots.”

(Source: NAHB)

🏠 Mortgage rates rise. According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased to 6.83% from 6.62% last week. From Freddie Mac: “The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage ticked up but remains below the 7% threshold for the thirteenth consecutive week. At this time last year, rates reached 7.1% while purchase application demand was 13% lower than it is today, a clear sign that this year’s spring homebuying season is off to a stronger start.”

(Source: Freddie Mac)

There are 147.4 million housing units in the U.S., of which 86.9 million are owner-occupied and about 34.1 million of which are mortgage-free. Of those carrying mortgage debt, almost all have fixed-rate mortgages, and most of those mortgages have rates that were locked in before rates surged from 2021 lows. All of this is to say: Most homeowners are not particularly sensitive to movements in home prices or mortgage rates.

For more on mortgages and home prices, read: Why home prices and rents are creating all sorts of confusion about inflation 😖

😬 This is the stuff pros are worried about. According to BofA’s April Global Fund Manager Survey: “Trade war triggering a global recession is viewed as the biggest ‘tail risk’ according to 80% of investors, the largest concentration for a ‘tail risk’ in 15-year history.”

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For more on risks, read: When uncertainty becomes unambiguously high 🎢, Three observations about uncertainty in the markets 😟 and Two times when uncertainty seemed low and confidence was high 🌈

📉 Near-term GDP growth estimates are tracking negative. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model sees real GDP growth declining at a 2.2% rate in Q1. Adjusted for the impact of gold imports and exports, they see GDP falling at a 0.1% rate.

(Source: Atlanta Fed)

For more on GDP and the economy, read: 9 once-hot economic charts that cooled 📉 and You call this a recession? 🤨

🚨 The tariffs announced by President Trump as they stand threaten to upend global trade — with significant implications for the U.S. economy, corporate earnings, and the stock market. Until we get some more clarity, here’s where things stand:

Earnings look bullish: The long-term outlook for the stock market remains favorable, bolstered by expectations for years of earnings growth. And earnings are the most important driver of stock prices.

Demand is positive: Demand for goods and services remains positive, supported by healthy consumer and business balance sheets. Job creation, while cooling, also remains positive, and the Federal Reserve — having resolved the inflation crisis — has shifted its focus toward supporting the labor market.

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But growth is cooling: While the economy remains healthy, growth has normalized from much hotter levels earlier in the cycle. The economy is less “coiled” these days as major tailwinds like excess job openings have faded. It has become harder to argue that growth is destiny.

Actions speak louder than words: We are in an odd period given that the hard economic data has decoupled from the soft sentiment-oriented data. Consumer and business sentiment has been relatively poor, even as tangible consumer and business activity continue to grow and trend at record levels. From an investor’s perspective, what matters is that the hard economic data continues to hold up.

Stocks are not the economy: Analysts expect the U.S. stock market could outperform the U.S. economy, thanks largely due to positive operating leverage. Since the pandemic, companies have adjusted their cost structures aggressively. This has come with strategic layoffs and investment in new equipment, including hardware powered by AI. These moves are resulting in positive operating leverage, which means a modest amount of sales growth — in the cooling economy — is translating to robust earnings growth.

Mind the ever-present risks: Of course, this does not mean we should get complacent. There will always be risks to worry about — such as U.S. political uncertainty, geopolitical turmoil, energy price volatility, cyber attacks, etc. There are also the dreaded unknowns. Any of these risks can flare up and spark short-term volatility in the markets.

Investing is never a smooth ride: There’s also the harsh reality that economic recessions and bear markets are developments that all long-term investors should expect to experience as they build wealth in the markets. Always keep your stock market seat belts fastened.

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Think long term: For now, there’s no reason to believe there’ll be a challenge that the economy and the markets won’t be able to overcome over time. The long game remains undefeated, and it’s a streak long-term investors can expect to continue.

A version of this post first appeared on TKer.co

Finance

Evoke Entertainment Closes $35 Million Production Financing Facility Backed By Major Private Credit Fund

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Evoke Entertainment Closes  Million Production Financing Facility Backed By Major Private Credit Fund

EXCLUSIVE: Evoke Entertainment has closed a senior secured production financing facility of up to $35 million backed by a multi-billion-dollar private credit fund.

While we verified the deal with the lender, they spoke with Deadline on the condition of anonymity, per company policy. The revolving production facility is designed to support Evoke’s expanding slate of independent features, television movies, streaming films, and series — significantly increasing the company’s already high-volume production output across major studios, networks, and streaming platforms.

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Structured around contracted revenue streams, distribution agreements, tax incentives, and the value of Evoke’s existing library and historical production performance, the facility provides the company with flexible, scalable production financing across multiple genres and platforms. Evoke’s lender comes to the partnership with extensive experience in structured finance, asset-backed lending, and entertainment-related investments.

The deal was spearheaded by Evoke Entertainment CEO Stan Spry, who told us, “This financing marks a transformative moment for Evoke. The backing of a major institutional private credit partner gives us the ability to substantially scale our production operations while continuing to focus on commercially driven, cost-efficient content for the global marketplace.”

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The first projects to be financed under Evoke’s facility include a large slate of TV and streaming movies including a Christmas film for Hallmark, a survival thriller for Lifetime, alongside the independent feature films Suburban KingsHomesick, and Bali Hai.

Founded in 2011, and formerly known as Cartel Entertainment, Evoke Entertainment is a full-service management, production, and finance company that produces more than 20 films and series annually across major platforms including Netflix, Hallmark, Lifetime, Tubi, NBC/Peacock, AMC, and Great American Media. Notable past projects include Creepshow (AMC), Day of the Dead (Syfy), Twelve Forever (Netflix), and the upcoming Breaking Bear for Tubi, to name a few.

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Livestock Methane in India: Aligning Livelihoods, Systems, and Finance – CPI

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Livestock Methane in India: Aligning Livelihoods, Systems, and Finance – CPI

Background

India is home to the world’s largest livestock population of 536.76 million, which produces 25% of the world’s milk1. This increase in livestock population leads to increased methane emissions, primarily from enteric fermentation and manure management. As a result, livestock contributes to 58% (BUR 4, 2020) of India’s agricultural methane footprint. However, unlike crop-based emissions, livestock methane is diffuse, biologically driven, and more complex to measure and manage, making it less visible within existing climate finance frameworks.

Current research and policy discussions indicate that while technical mitigation solutions exist through feed improvements and manure management, evidence of their effectiveness in maintaining dairy productivity, animal health, and protecting farmers’ incomes is scattered. This leads to heightened risk perceptions among dairy producers when considering methane mitigation measures. Furthermore, even where the evidence is compelling, the fragmentation of dairy producers precludes their aggregation. Additionally, there is a lack of robust, affordable, and scalable monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) systems at the grassroots level. These barriers prevent the development of a clear, scalable, and financeable pipeline of livestock methane abatement in India.

The Government of India has actively supported dairy development and livestock health through various schemes and programs introduced by the Department of Animal Husbandry and Dairying. At the same time, livestock systems in India are deeply embedded within rural livelihoods and socio-economic structures, making the sector a critical component of rural resilience. Consequently, interventions must be context-aware and farmer-centric, with a strong focus on livelihood security and alignment with local values and practices.

With this background, CPI is organizing a roundtable to explore how livestock methane can transition from a technically understood challenge to actionable opportunities on the ground, including both animal feed and manure management. The forum would bring together dairy producer organizations, nodal agencies, think tanks, ecosystem enablers, and financial institutions. It will deliberate upon possible projectized solutions and accompanying financing mechanisms that could be scaled up to address the twin objectives of methane abatement and farmers’ income security.

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Efficient Capital Markets Can Unlock Africa’s Domestic Savings

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Efficient Capital Markets Can Unlock Africa’s Domestic Savings

By Samira Mensah, Head of Analytics & Research Africa, S&P Global Ratings

 

 

 

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Efficient capital markets can transform Africa’s limited domestic financial assets into investments that spur economic growth. By connecting institutional investors, pension funds and foreign investors, capital markets enhance economic development by increasing the availability of funding for long-term projects.

Efficient domestic capital markets can not only address governments’ significant funding gaps but can also ensure that critical infrastructure developments—such as transportation, energy and telecommunications—are adequately financed, ultimately driving economic growth and employment. Supported by transparent and comparable risk frameworks, efficient domestic capital markets can build confidence among domestic and foreign investors and enhance resilience during periods of global risk aversion.

In our view, African capital markets currently lack two key building blocks.

In our view, African capital markets currently lack two key building blocks. Firstly, with limited exceptions, regulatory frameworks generally lag the International Organization of Securities Commissions’ (IOSCO’s) global standards, which cover listing standards on securities exchanges, development of digital market infrastructure and improvements in the timeliness and transparency of regulatory disclosures of issuers’ financial results, including environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors and green-finance taxonomies.

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Some countries, such as South Africa, Kenya, Morocco and Mauritius, are more advanced than others. The misalignment of regulatory frameworks with international norms stems from the gap between adoption and implementation through legislation, which deters international and local investment.

Secondly, the absence of standardized risk assessments leads to information gaps and limits investor participation in primary and secondary bond markets. Credit benchmarks—such as sovereign-yield curves, credit ratings and market-implied risk measures—can help in this regard. They distill complex financial, macroeconomic and institutional information into consistent and comparable signals.

As such, these benchmarks provide a standardized framework for assessing creditworthiness, supporting consistent credit analysis and facilitating decision-making based on transparent and comparable data. They are relevant to investment vehicles with specific investment mandates and may influence the availability of capital, which is crucial for infrastructure projects.

Capital markets can spur economic growth

Capital markets can play a central role in turning domestic savings into productive investments. This is particularly the case in Africa, where development needs are high and incomes are rising from a low base. Additionally, innovative financial technologies, such as fintech platforms, attract more small savings—including money sent home by migrants—that can also fund investments. However, mobilizing domestic savings for investments in local economies remains a significant challenge because many transactions are in cash and outside the financial system.

According to the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC), African sovereign-wealth funds, pension funds, insurers, central banks and commercial banks hold an estimated US$4 trillion in financial assets, representing 130 percent of Africa’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025. Long-term institutional capital accounts for $1.1 trillion of the $4 trillion, while African sovereign-wealth funds manage only about $145 billion in assets under management (AUM)—less than 1 percent of global sovereign-wealth funds’ AUM.

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Although banking assets comprise the majority of financial assets, they are typically short-term, and banks rely on customer deposits to fund lending activities. This underscores the mismatch between banks’ short-term funding profiles and the economy’s long-term financing needs, particularly in underdeveloped financial systems.

South Africa holds the largest share of Africa’s financial assets, followed by Egypt and Nigeria. South Africa contributes 20-25 percent to Africa’s financial assets. This reflects the country’s outsized role within the continent’s savings pools, its large and mature pension system and its highly developed banking sector. We estimate that the South African banking sector’s assets amount to nearly 100 percent of GDP, while nonbank financial institutions—including pension and insurance funds—account for close to 120 percent of GDP.

Smaller economies that are important regional financial hubs—such as Morocco, Mauritius and Kenya—also play a meaningful role. Aggregate financial assets represent 80 percent to more than 200 percent of these economies’ respective GDPs. Yet a significant portion of this capital does not flow into long-term productive investments.

In several countries, the economic effects of financial assets are muted because large shares are either invested in government securities or placed offshore. For example, the bank-sovereign nexus remains particularly high in Egypt and Kenya, where government securities account for 30-60 percent of banking assets. This contributes to crowding out private investments and increases fiscal-financial linkages. Pension funds are further constrained by specific investment mandates. We understand that only 5 percent of their assets are allocated to alternative investments.

Capital allocation rules could channel domestic savings into real sectors

Regulations across various jurisdictions permit pension funds and sovereign-wealth funds to invest abroad, albeit to varying degrees. For instance, South Africa, which holds the largest share of the continent’s institutional savings, allows its pension funds to invest up to 45 percent offshore, while Nigeria’s regulatory framework limits pension funds’ aggregate offshore exposure to 20-25 percent.

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While this facilitates diversification, it also means that a significant portion of domestic savings is invested in fixed-income securities outside Africa, thereby curbing the potential for local economic development. Similarly, when African sovereign-wealth funds invest internationally, their portfolios tend to be diversified away from African assets, further diluting the potential developmental benefits of domestic savings.

Intra-African investment remains limited

However, existing cross-border banking and investment activity points to significant untapped potential. Pan-African banks are important for regional financial connectivity, but their cross-border activities are limited by risk-return considerations, leaving significant potential for greater mobilization of long-term investment. These banking groups’ networks facilitate payments, trade settlement and sovereign financing, but remain only partially leveraged for long-term investment mobilization.

For example, Moroccan banking groups have built extensive footprints across francophone West and Central Africa but their assets outside Morocco account for less than 10 percent of their consolidated assets. Although Nigerian and Kenyan banks support trade finance and corporate lending across regional trade corridors, their home markets hold the lion’s share of their consolidated assets.

Cross-border institutional capital flows remain modest. Pension funds and insurers largely invest domestically—often in government securities—or allocate savings offshore. This reflects regulatory fragmentation, currency risks, shallow capital markets and limited regional investment-vehicle opportunities. Joint investments in infrastructure, productive sectors and regional value chains remain low.

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) aims at deepening financial integration. By seeking to expand intra-African trade and regional value chains, the AfCFTA aims to increase demand for cross-border financing, risk-sharing and long-term capital. This, however, will require more regional capital-market integrations, harmonized regulations and co-investment platforms that pool African savings.

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Leveraging existing pan-African banking networks, regional bond markets, infrastructure funds and blended-finance vehicles could redirect Africa’s capital toward continental growth. This could, in turn, reduce reliance on external financing and strengthen the links between domestic savings and productive investments under the AfCFTA framework.

The catalytic role of MLIs in capital mobilization

Multilateral lending institutions (MLIs) can mobilize long-term funding, provide credit enhancement and support the introduction of new financing structures. To improve capital efficiency and preserve lending capacity, several MLIs have increasingly used balance-sheet optimization tools in recent years, including portfolio risk-sharing and originate-to-distribute-type arrangements.

More broadly, MLIs’ engagement extends beyond direct financing to include policy support, institutional and capacity-building development and infrastructure. These measures may support longer-term improvements in market functioning and economic integration.

Afreximbank’s (African Export–Import Bank’s) push to implement the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) aims to accelerate regional trade integration under the AfCFTA. The PAPSS seeks to facilitate cross-border settlements in local currencies and reduce trade costs, while the Africa Trade Gateway plans to ease cross-border trade and payment flows. The benefits of these platforms for intraregional trade and transaction costs will likely emerge gradually.

Even so, structural constraints remain. In particular, the limited availability of first-loss concessional capital and uneven risk appetite in the private sector continue to constrain the scale and pace at which blended-finance solutions can be deployed. Although MLIs’ continent-wide initiatives could support the gradual expansion of public-private partnerships and risk-sharing structures, their effectiveness will likely depend on sustained policy support, transaction standardization and stable macro-financial conditions.

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Strengthening Africa’s capital markets

We believe the development of capital markets is crucial for the growth of African economies and their private sectors.

We believe the development of capital markets is crucial for the growth of African economies and their private sectors. Unlocking Africa’s abundant funding potential would benefit from establishing effective regulatory regimes that encourage listings without overburdening issuers. Strengthening capital markets by facilitating both debt and equity raisings and listings can broaden market access and deepen market liquidity.

Excluding South Africa, capital markets across Africa remain fragmented and shallow. The Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE), the largest African stock exchange by market capitalization, has a total market capitalization of South African rand (ZAR) 24.6 trillion (about US$1.5 trillion)—more than three times South Africa’s GDP. It ranks among the top 20 stock exchanges worldwide.

In contrast, other exchanges are more modest, as their private sectors’ funding profiles rely primarily on bank loans rather than accessing capital markets. Countries such as Nigeria, Egypt, Côte d’Ivoire, Kenya and Morocco have significant domestic financing sources, but these often come at high costs.

Governments largely define these domestic bond markets because they are the largest issuers, and commercial banks are the primary buyers of government bonds. South Africa has the most liquid and diverse bond market, but government securities dominate local-currency issuances (270 percent of GDP).

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Countries such as South Africa and Nigeria have introduced reforms to unlock nonbank domestic capital, notably through pension-fund reforms that allow greater capital allocation to alternative assets. Other reforms aim to develop new financing platforms, facilitate green financing and set benchmarks for how capital markets can price climate and infrastructure-related risks.

In 2022, the African Development Bank (AfDB) issued its inaugural local-currency ZAR200-million green bond, which was listed on the JSE. The JSE is advancing sustainability-linked financial instruments and improving ESG disclosures, aligning African capital markets with global best practices.

In 2026, the JSE launched its nature platform and listed Africa’s first nature-linked performance-based bond—a ZAR2.5-billion issuance by FirstRand Bank, one of the country’s top banks. In 2025, the Rwanda Stock Exchange (RSE) launched its Green Exchange Window (GEW), supported by the Luxembourg Stock Exchange (LuxSE).

Collectively, these labeled debt instruments can act as catalysts for blended-finance structures, mobilizing more private capital.

Governments play a vital role in equalizing access to information and developing deep, transparent sovereign-bond markets. Well-established government-bond yield curves in these markets serve as important pricing benchmarks for corporates and the wider economy. This enhances investor confidence and facilitates more informed investment decisions. Ongoing efforts by governments to increase transparency, provide timely information disclosures and maintain robust regulatory oversight will maximize the benefits of sovereign-bond markets.

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Clear and credible credit signals further enhance pricing transparency, enabling investors to better assess risk and return. Greater confidence in valuations supports active participation, improves secondary-market liquidity and strengthens price discovery. Over time, this creates a virtuous cycle—whereby increased participation reinforces market efficiency and resilience, ultimately supporting sustainable economic growth in Africa.

Despite structural shortcomings, domestic investors have increasingly stepped in to meet financing needs. Infrastructure projects are now more often financed through domestic local-currency capital markets and financial institutions, including development-finance institutions. We believe that Africa’s economic integration will be intrinsically linked to more developed domestic capital markets.

 

 

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

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Samira Mensah is Managing Director, Research & Analytics Africa, and Country Head for South Africa at S&P Global Ratings, based in Johannesburg. She leads thought leadership and market outreach initiatives across Africa, with a particular focus on African credit markets and Islamic finance. A frequent speaker at industry conferences and contributor to research publications, Samira recently presented at The Africa We Build Summit in Nairobi.

 

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