Finance
Chart of the Week: The jobs report's instant expectations shift
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The labor market offered an unexpected surprise on Friday as the September jobs report showed 254,000 payrolls added in September — 104,000 more than expected.
Worries of a flagging labor market have been the main point of economic focus over the past month as the conversation has turned from inflation, which appears to be in control at last, to the other half of the Fed’s dual mandate.
In the leadup this week, two key reports showed mixed data. The JOLTS numbers showed more job openings, but more conservative hires and quits. The ADP numbers showed surprising strength in private payrolls, but lower wage gains for job switchers — a key labor market thermometer that dogged the inflationary 2021 and 2022 years.
As our Chart of the Week shows, the economists have been caught off guard. September’s report has suddenly changed expectations for the Fed’s trajectory, as the market now sees four 25 basis point rate cuts over the next four meetings and a higher terminal rate when the cuts end.
Renaissance Macro Research’s Neil Dutta sees the print as bolstering the guidance of a 25 basis point cut per meeting until 2025, noting that the report “overwhelms all other employment indicators” that showed a weakening labor market.
“Today’s data might be the first sign of stabilization,” Dutta wrote on X, formerly Twitter.
Nearly every note we saw from Wall Street economists Friday was in agreement. This shifting dynamic suggests that not only is 50 basis points off the table for November’s meeting — some are even questioning any further cutting with numbers so strong.
“Looking at the [labor] market strength evident in September’s employment report, the real debate at the Fed should be about whether to loosen monetary policy at all,” Capital Economics chief North America economist Paul Ashworth wrote in a note to clients on Friday. “Any hopes of a [50 basis point] cut are long gone.”
On the one hand, life comes at you fast. A new report comes and blows everybody’s views out of the water and even threatens to pull the dreaded topic of inflation back in, just when we thought we were out.
On the other, to quote Fed Chair Powell from the June meeting, “it always makes sense to look at a series … rather than just one report.” The “totality” of data, not just one report — which of course will get more weight because it’s still warm from the printer, magnifying the effect of an already huge beat.
What is clear is that the Fed’s wait-and-see, meeting-by-meeting attitude is far from ready to be abandoned, as the moment’s uniqueness keeps showing itself.
Besides the unexpected headline numbers, the unemployment rate-focused Sahm Rule — which has already been played down by its creator, Claudia Sahm — showed an unusual retreat after previously surpassing a recessionary mark that, once passed, usually keeps going up. Another point for the “this time could be different” camp.
It doesn’t end there. Year-over-year wage growth was 4%, up from 3.9%, a gain that would typically spark serious inflation concerns, but hasn’t. Putting aside whether “not cutting” is perhaps tantamount to hiking, the fundamental narrative of the Fed’s directionality hasn’t changed, only adjusted.
Counterbalancing the jobs numbers is survey after survey that shows labor sentiment declining — a factor arguably as important as the actual numbers. (If people feel like jobs are scarce, they may also feel like spending a little more conservatively.)
“On the face of this the Fed should be hiking rates with these sorts of figures, not cutting rates,” wrote ING’s James Knightley. “Nonetheless, we feel that the risks remain skewed towards weaker growth and lower Fed funds given the perception amongst households of a deteriorating jobs market (even if today’s numbers don’t confirm that), which may lead to consumers spending more cautiously.”
For the Fed, at least, the wait-and-see approach looks even better than it did previously as it seeks to gently land the plane. With both the economy looking strong and inflation getting in check, nothing sits to force its hand — for now.
Ethan Wolff-Mann is a Senior Editor at Yahoo Finance, running newsletters. Follow him on X @ewolffmann.
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Finance
FTSE 100 LIVE: Stocks muted as Trump delays strikes on Iran power plants
The FTSE 100 (^FTSE) was hovering around the flatline on Friday, while European stocks headed lower, as traders shrugged off Donald Trump’s latest pause on striking Iran’s energy infrastructure.
On Thursday night, the US president extended the deadline for Iran to open the strait of Hormuz by 10 days, meaning the new date would be 6 April. He claimed that talks were “going very well”. However, Iran denied it was “begging to make a deal”, despite Trump’s earlier claims.
It comes after Wall Street posted its biggest daily loss since the Iran war began on Thursday.
The Wall Street Journal also reported on Thursday that the US was considering sending as many as 10,000 additional troops to the Middle East.
Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG, said Trump has extended the uncertainty gripping markets.
“While the rhetoric around de-escalation and dialogue is certainly preferable to outright conflict, the market appears to be growing increasingly numb to President Trump’s verbal reassurances. By extending the deadline, it effectively kicks the can down the road, pushing back any concrete resolution regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This, in turn, simply extends the uncertainty weighing on markets and the broader global economy.”
Elsewhere, UK retail sales dipped by 0.4% in February, following a rise of 2.0% in January, the Office for National Statistics revealed. In the December to February quarter, sales volumes were up 0.7% compared with the previous three months.
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London’s benchmark index (^FTSE) was hovering around the flatline in early trade
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Germany’s DAX (^GDAXI) dipped 0.5% and the CAC (^FCHI) in Paris headed 0.2% into the red
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The pan-European STOXX 600 (^STOXX) was down 0.3%
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Wall Street is set for a muted start as S&P 500 futures (ES=F), Dow futures (YM=F) and Nasdaq futures (NQ=F) were all lacklustre.
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The pound was 0.1% down against the US dollar (GBPUSD=X) at 1.3311
Follow along for live updates throughout the day:
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Finance
NDSU College of Business launches Center for Banking and Finance
FARGO, N.D. – North Dakota State University’s College of Business has launched the Center for Banking and Finance, a new academic and industry‑engaged hub designed to prepare students for careers in banking and finance while supporting the evolving workforce needs of the region’s financial industry, a release states.
Announced during a press conference at NDSU’s Louise Auditorium at Barry Hall, the center brings together students, faculty and industry partners to expand experiential learning opportunities, strengthen connections to employers, and address emerging trends shaping the financial services industry. The center is housed within NDSU’s College of Business and builds on growing student interest in finance‑related programs.
“The Center for Banking and Finance reflects NDSU’s responsibility as a student‑focused, land‑grant, research university to respond to workforce and economic needs across our state and region,” said Interim President Rick Berg. “By connecting education, industry, and community, this center helps ensure our graduates are prepared to contribute on day one and throughout their careers.”
The center will support undergraduate and graduate students through hands‑on learning experiences, exposure to financial tools and technologies, and direct engagement with financial institutions, regulators and business leaders. It will also serve professionals already working in banking and finance through workshops, training and research‑informed programming aligned with business needs, according to the release.
“The Center for Banking and Finance is about momentum — students who are eager to learn, faculty who are pushing applied scholarship forward, and industry partners who want to shape the future workforce,” said Kathryn Birkeland, Ronald and Kaye Olson dean of the NDSU College of Business. “When education and industry move together, everyone benefits.”
The launch of the Center for Banking and Finance coincides with a series of regional events focused on finance, fintech and economic outlook, including programming with the Bank of North Dakota, the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and regional business leaders. Together, these events underscore the Fargo‑Moorhead area’s role as a hub for financial dialogue, talent development and economic collaboration.
The center’s foundational banking partners include Dacotah Bank, Gate City Bank, Bell Bank and Western State Bank, who attended the launch and are helping shape early student experiences and industry-informed programming.
The center is led by Mark Jensen, a career banker and longtime adjunct instructor who joined NDSU full-time in 2026 as director of the Center for Banking and Finance.
“The Center for Banking and Finance is designed as a bridge,” Jensen said. “It brings industry into the learning experience in meaningful ways, and it gives students clearer pathways into a wide range of banking and finance careers.”
For students, the center represents a more direct bridge between academic study and professional opportunity.
“As a finance student, experiences outside the classroom make a real difference,” said Tavian Nelson, a senior at NDSU majoring in finance. “Going into college, I knew I wanted to be involved in the finance program but was unsure of what that would look like once I graduated. The school has truly shaped my desired career outcomes with many hands-on experiences, professional leaders, and connections throughout my time here. This center will truly strengthen these experiences for students.”
Initially, the center will focus on experiential learning opportunities, business partnerships and workforce‑aligned programming, with plans to expand offerings as partnerships and resources grow. The center is supported through external funding and business engagement.
Finance
Iran war could trigger financial systemic stress, ECB vice president warns
FRANKFURT, March 26 (Reuters) – Euro zone banks have limited direct exposure to the war in the Middle East, but the conflict could still generate systemic stress given interconnected vulnerabilities, European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Thursday.
Financial markets have come under stress in recent weeks from the impact of the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran, but the selloff outside the Middle East has been limited, even as some assets remain overvalued.
“Spillovers to the euro area financial sector have so far remained contained,” de Guindos said in a speech. “Direct bank exposures to the region are limited, and the banking system is well positioned with strong profitability and robust capital and liquidity buffers.”
De Guindos argued that even market infrastructure operators, like central counterparties whose services include energy markets, have managed margin requirements effectively, despite the volatility.
Still, there was a broader risk, given interconnections in the financial system, said de Guindos, whose roles at the ECB include monitoring financial stability.
“Amid already elevated global uncertainty, this conflict could trigger the unravelling of interconnected vulnerabilities and cause systemic stress,” he said.
The conflict threatens to derail market sentiment at a time when asset valuations are high, potentially leading to a sharp repricing of risk for leveraged borrowers and sovereigns while amplifying stress in the non-bank financial sector, he said.
On the ECB’s core mandate of ensuring low inflation, de Guindos repeated the bank’s warning that inflation could rise and growth slow on the conflict but argued more time was needed to understand the full impact.
“We are unwavering in our commitment to ensuring that inflation stabilises at our 2% target in the medium term,” he said.
(Reporting by Balazs Koranyi; Editing by Toby Chopra)
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