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Chart of the Week: The jobs report's instant expectations shift

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Chart of the Week: The jobs report's instant expectations shift

This is The Takeaway from today’s Morning Brief, which you can sign up to receive in your inbox every morning along with:

The labor market offered an unexpected surprise on Friday as the September jobs report showed 254,000 payrolls added in September — 104,000 more than expected.

Worries of a flagging labor market have been the main point of economic focus over the past month as the conversation has turned from inflation, which appears to be in control at last, to the other half of the Fed’s dual mandate.

In the leadup this week, two key reports showed mixed data. The JOLTS numbers showed more job openings, but more conservative hires and quits. The ADP numbers showed surprising strength in private payrolls, but lower wage gains for job switchers — a key labor market thermometer that dogged the inflationary 2021 and 2022 years.

As our Chart of the Week shows, the economists have been caught off guard. September’s report has suddenly changed expectations for the Fed’s trajectory, as the market now sees four 25 basis point rate cuts over the next four meetings and a higher terminal rate when the cuts end.

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Renaissance Macro Research’s Neil Dutta sees the print as bolstering the guidance of a 25 basis point cut per meeting until 2025, noting that the report “overwhelms all other employment indicators” that showed a weakening labor market.

“Today’s data might be the first sign of stabilization,” Dutta wrote on X, formerly Twitter.

Nearly every note we saw from Wall Street economists Friday was in agreement. This shifting dynamic suggests that not only is 50 basis points off the table for November’s meeting — some are even questioning any further cutting with numbers so strong.

“Looking at the [labor] market strength evident in September’s employment report, the real debate at the Fed should be about whether to loosen monetary policy at all,” Capital Economics chief North America economist Paul Ashworth wrote in a note to clients on Friday. “Any hopes of a [50 basis point] cut are long gone.”

On the one hand, life comes at you fast. A new report comes and blows everybody’s views out of the water and even threatens to pull the dreaded topic of inflation back in, just when we thought we were out.

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On the other, to quote Fed Chair Powell from the June meeting, “it always makes sense to look at a series … rather than just one report.” The “totality” of data, not just one report — which of course will get more weight because it’s still warm from the printer, magnifying the effect of an already huge beat.

What is clear is that the Fed’s wait-and-see, meeting-by-meeting attitude is far from ready to be abandoned, as the moment’s uniqueness keeps showing itself.

Besides the unexpected headline numbers, the unemployment rate-focused Sahm Rule — which has already been played down by its creator, Claudia Sahm — showed an unusual retreat after previously surpassing a recessionary mark that, once passed, usually keeps going up. Another point for the “this time could be different” camp.

It doesn’t end there. Year-over-year wage growth was 4%, up from 3.9%, a gain that would typically spark serious inflation concerns, but hasn’t. Putting aside whether “not cutting” is perhaps tantamount to hiking, the fundamental narrative of the Fed’s directionality hasn’t changed, only adjusted.

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Counterbalancing the jobs numbers is survey after survey that shows labor sentiment declining — a factor arguably as important as the actual numbers. (If people feel like jobs are scarce, they may also feel like spending a little more conservatively.)

“On the face of this the Fed should be hiking rates with these sorts of figures, not cutting rates,” wrote ING’s James Knightley. “Nonetheless, we feel that the risks remain skewed towards weaker growth and lower Fed funds given the perception amongst households of a deteriorating jobs market (even if today’s numbers don’t confirm that), which may lead to consumers spending more cautiously.”

For the Fed, at least, the wait-and-see approach looks even better than it did previously as it seeks to gently land the plane. With both the economy looking strong and inflation getting in check, nothing sits to force its hand — for now.

Ethan Wolff-Mann is a Senior Editor at Yahoo Finance, running newsletters. Follow him on X @ewolffmann.

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Paramount ally RedBird says using Middle East money to help buy Warner Bros. could be a good idea

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Paramount ally RedBird says using Middle East money to help buy Warner Bros. could be a good idea

  • Last year, Paramount said it would use $24 billion in funding from Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, and Qatar to help buy WBD.
  • Now that Paramount has won that deal, it won’t say whether that’s still the plan.
  • A key Paramount backer suggests that Gulf money would be a good thing for this deal.

We still don’t know if Paramount intends to use billions of dollars from Gulf states like Saudi Arabia to help it buy Warner Bros. Discovery.

But if Paramount does end up doing that, it wouldn’t be a bad thing, says a key Paramount backer.

That update comes via Gerry Cardinale, who heads up RedBird Capital Partners, the private equity company that helped finance Larry and David Ellison’s acquisition of Paramount last year and is doing the same with their WBD deal now.

In a podcast with Puck’s Matt Belloni published Wednesday night, Cardinale wouldn’t comment directly on Paramount’s previously disclosed plans to use $24 billion from sovereign wealth funds controlled by Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, and Qatar to help buy WBD.

Instead, he reiterated Paramount’s current messaging on the deal’s financing: The $47 billion in equity Paramount will use to buy WBD will be “backstopped” by the Ellison family and RedBird — meaning they are ultimately on the hook to pay up. The rest of the $81 billion deal will be financed with debt.

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Cardinale also acknowledged what Paramount has disclosed in its current disclosure documents: It intends to sell portions of that $47 billion commitment to other investors: “We haven’t syndicated anything at this time,” he said. “We do expect to syndicate with strategic, domestic, and foreign investors. But at the end of the day, that alchemy shouldn’t matter because it’ll be done in the right way.”

And when asked about concerns about Middle Eastern countries owning part of a media conglomerate that includes assets like CNN, Cardinale suggested that could be a plus.

“I think we want to be a global company,” he said. “You look at what’s going on right now geopolitically. What’s going on right now geopolitically out of the Middle East wouldn’t be, the positives of that would not be happening without some of those sovereigns that you’re referring to.”

He continued:

“The world is changing. We can stick our head in the sand and pretend it’s not, or we can embrace globalization and the derivative benefits both geopolitically and otherwise that come from that. Content generation coming out of Hollywood is one of America’s greatest exports.
I firmly embrace the global nature and orientation that we bring to this from a capital standpoint, from a footprint standpoint, etc. At the end of the day, I do understand some of the concerns that you’ve raised, but that will work itself out between signing and closing because at the end of the day, worst-case scenario, Ellison and RedBird are 100% of this thing.”

All of which suggests to me that Paramount still intends to use money from Gulf-based sovereign wealth funds to buy WBD.

What I don’t understand is why the company won’t say that out loud. Does that mean it’s still negotiating with potential investors? Or that it’s reticent to disclose outside investors, for whatever reason, until it has to? A Paramount rep declined to comment.

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Crypto bill hits new impasse, raising doubts over its future

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Crypto bill hits new impasse, raising doubts over its future
Talks on landmark crypto legislation have hit a new impasse after banks said they could not back a compromise pushed by the White House, a development that cast doubt on whether the bill will pass this year and sparked criticism from President Donald Trump ​who accused lenders of trying to undermine it.
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Stamford Finance Students Wow Judges, Take Home Trophy in Regional CFA Competition – UConn Today

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Stamford Finance Students Wow Judges, Take Home Trophy in Regional CFA Competition – UConn Today

A tenacious team of finance majors, who sacrificed most of their winter break to prepare for the CFA Institute Research Challenge, took first place in that regional competition last week.

Students Hunter Baillargeon, Dylan Fischetto, Richard Opper, Philip Ochocinski and Rushit Chauhan were tasked with researching and analyzing a major utility company, and then producing a 10-page report about whether to buy, hold, or sell its stock. They chose to sell.

One of the CFA judges said both the team’s report and presentation were among the best he had seen in many years.

“As a team, we were thrilled our hard work paid off and our many hours of work allowed us to achieve what we did,’’ Baillargeon said. “What we accomplished couldn’t have been done without working with such a cohesive and collective unit.’’

“From a technical perspective, I realize how valuable true analysis is and the importance of looking where others don’t for a differentiated approach,’’ Baillargeon said.

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The first round of competition featured 24 college teams from the Stamford-Hartford-Providence region. The Stamford team, composed of seniors all of whom all participate in UConn’s Student Managed Fund program, received its first-place award Feb. 26 in a ceremony in Hartford. The team will advance to the East Coast competition later this month.

Stamford Finance Program is Robust

“The Stamford team’s advancement in this competition reflects not only the students’ exceptional talent and work ethic, but also the rigor and applied focus of the UConn finance curriculum,’’ said professor Yiming Qian, head of the Finance Department.

“Our Stamford campus hosts approximately 200 financial management majors. The Stamford program is a vital part of the School and continues to demonstrate outstanding strength,” she said.

Professors Steve Wilson and Jeff Bianchi, who combined have 75 years of experience in the investment industry, were the team’s advisers and were supported by academic director Katherine Pancak.

Wilson said the task of analyzing a utility is particularly complex because of the company’s structure and the regulatory environment in which it operates.

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“I believe the Stamford team stood out because of the depth of their research, and willingness to take a bold stand, including the decision to ‘go out on a limb’ and recommend selling the stock,’’ he said. “They didn’t ‘play it safe.’’’

“This clean-sweep was a true team effort. They were tireless throughout, and sleepless too often, but they never wavered from their desire to always dig deeper and uncover any information that would strengthen our investment case,’’ he said. “What a phenomenal job they did!’’

Competition in Hong Kong Is Ultimate Goal

The Stamford team will compete against Loyola, Canisius, Sacred Heart; Seton Hall, Villanova, St. Michaels, Western New England, University of Maine, Fordham and Penn State next. In total, some 8,000 students are expected to participate in various competitions worldwide, culminating in a championship round in Hong Kong in May.

Wilson said the financial industry is always welcoming of new talent. And when one of the judges told him that the Stamford team produced some of the best work that he’d seen in years, Wilson felt tremendous pride for the students.

“Finance is an open playing field. In investments, the best idea wins,’’ he said.

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Baillargeon said he will always appreciate the whole team’s dedication.

“What I’ll remember most is the help of our advisers and our cohesive, close-knit team where everyone pulled their weight,’’ Baillargeon said. “We put in long hours, did a tremendous amount of research, and collaborated well together. I hope when I enter the workforce I get to work with a team as committed as this one is.’’

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