Who will win the first 12-team College Football Playoff national championship? I believe there are six teams that have the personnel, savvy and leadership to make a run and win it all, handling top competition as the margin for error gets smaller and the spotlight gets so much brighter.

I love so many of these matchups as we game out the bracket. I’ve long been looking forward to this first expanded Playoff, and I’m now downright giddy about what we’re about to see over the next month and a half.

Here are my picks for the Playoff:

First round

(8) Ohio State over (9) Tennessee

8 p.m. ET | Saturday, Dec. 21 | Columbus, Ohio

I love this opening-round matchup. The Vols will have the best defense the Buckeyes have played, and young Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava has been impressive down the stretch, throwing 11 touchdowns and just one interception in five November games. But I think the Buckeyes’ defense will be the difference against a shaky Vols O-line in a very hostile environment.

(5) Texas over (12) Clemson

4 p.m. ET | Saturday, Dec. 21 | Austin, Texas

Clemson, the ACC champ, has won two national titles under Dabo Swinney. But the Tigers are just 2-3 against teams with winning records and 0-2 vs. the SEC, and now they head to Austin. It’s a very intriguing QB battle here. Clemson’s Cade Klubnik, born in Austin, has been terrific and gotten better as the season has gone on, while Quinn Ewers and the Texas offense have sputtered over the past month.

But I’m still going with the Longhorns here. I don’t think Clemson’s defense is stout enough — it ranks No. 14 in the 17-team ACC against the run — to win on the road against a team as talented as Texas.

(7) Notre Dame over (10) Indiana

8 p.m. ET | Friday, Dec. 20 | South Bend, Ind.

Indiana doesn’t get a home game, but it won’t have to travel far to visit Notre Dame for the first matchup between the in-state foes since 1991. The Hoosiers have been a great story this season, but Notre Dame’s defense will be too much for IU. And even though the Hoosiers have the top-ranked run defense in the Big Ten, the Irish run game is very dangerous and capable of causing problems.

(6) Penn State over (11) SMU

Noon ET | Saturday, Dec. 21 | State College, Pa.

SMU got into the Playoff with the last at-large bid despite losing to Clemson on Saturday and faces Penn State in Happy Valley, where there will be a raucous crowd. The Nittany Lions have an elite running back tandem in Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen and ran all over a good Oregon defense. The Mustangs have been superb at shutting down the run, with only Boston College averaging more than 4 yards per carry against them this year, and they yield an ACC-best 2.74 yards a rush. SMU also protects its quarterbacks well (only 15 sacks allowed in 13 games).

But I’m not picking against Penn State in Beaver Stadium. I feel like the Nittany Lions will build off an impressive showing by their offense in the Big Ten title game.

Quarterfinals

(1) Oregon over (8) Ohio State

5 p.m. ET | Wednesday, Jan. 1 | Rose Bowl | Pasadena, Calif.

This would be a fun rematch. The Buckeyes almost beat the Ducks in Autzen Stadium at midseason, and now they can play again in the Rose Bowl. I picked Ohio State to win it all in the preseason. I still think the Buckeyes are talented enough to win the title, even after their dud performance against Michigan two weeks ago, but it’s become apparent this squad is struggling under the pressure it seems to be putting on itself now.

On the other side, Dan Lanning’s guys always seem primed for whatever challenge they get, and I think the Ducks have a significant edge at QB with Dillon Gabriel.

(5) Texas over (4) Arizona State

1 p.m. ET | Wednesday, Jan. 1 | Peach Bowl | Atlanta

This matchup would be fascinating for a variety of reasons, but start with this: The Longhorns came within a play of being in the national title game last year, while the Sun Devils were picked to finish last in the Big 12 in the preseason after going 3-9 in Kenny Dillingham’s first season. The Sun Devils are arguably the hottest team in the country right now, winning six in a row. Running back Cam Skattebo has been a beast, and this ASU team looks like it’s really feeding off his energy and his attitude.

I think ASU gives Texas a game … for a half, before the Longhorns’ talent takes over.

(2) Georgia over (7) Notre Dame

8:45 p.m. ET | Wednesday, Jan. 1 | Sugar Bowl | New Orleans

Notre Dame’s O-line, which was such a question mark early in the season, has held up very well, allowing just 15 sacks in 12 games. But Georgia’s front seven is scary — just ask Ewers and Texas, whose solid O-line the Dawgs have overwhelmed twice. I do think the Irish’s defense is good enough to keep this one close, but the Georgia athleticism comes at you in waves. The Bulldogs will force a big turnover or two in the second half to pull away.

(6) Penn State over (3) Boise State

7:30 p.m. ET | Tuesday, Dec. 31 | Fiesta Bowl | Glendale, Ariz.

Penn State lost to Ohio State at home and Oregon in the Big Ten title game, yet it got a more favorable draw than either of them.  In SMU and now Boise State, the Nittany Lions face two teams that were both G5 programs last year.

While this isn’t a great Penn State run defense — USC averaged almost 8 yards a carry on PSU and Oregon just ran for 183 yards on it — and Ashton Jeanty is a much better back than either of those teams have, the Nittany Lions have enough athletes to not let the Boise State superstar run wild. Expect this one to be close. Jeanty probably goes for around 200 yards, but the Nittany Lions’ combination of tight end Tyler Warren and two elite running backs in a very good system comes up big down the stretch.

GO DEEPER

Penn State has the most favorable path through the College Football Playoff

Semifinals

(1) Oregon over (5) Texas

7:30 p.m. ET | Friday, Jan. 10 | Cotton Bowl | Arlington, Texas

Gabriel has seen plenty of Texas from his Oklahoma days. He beat a really good UT team last year with the Sooners and didn’t play in the 2022 game when the Horns blew out the Sooners. His legs will be a key here; he ran for 113 yards on Texas last year.

(2) Georgia over (6) Penn State

7:30 p.m. ET | Thursday, Jan. 9 | Orange Bowl | Miami Gardens, Fla.

Georgia’s offense has been really inconsistent, but as long as its front seven is healthy, the Bulldogs present big problems. Winning two Playoff games is a step in the right direction for James Franklin’s Nittany Lions. But I don’t see them handling the Dawgs, who are just bigger and more physical than the first two CFP opponents Penn State got.

National championship

(1) Oregon over (2) Georgia

7:30 p.m. ET | Monday, Jan. 20 | Atlanta

Dan Lanning against his old boss Kirby Smart in the title game is a sweet subplot. The Ducks are built a lot like Smart’s squad. They have a lot of those same elite big players — maybe not quite as many of them in the front seven — and they also have better skill talent and the edge at quarterback, especially given Carson Beck’s injury questions.

To me, Oregon has the top QB in this entire field in Gabriel. He’s very experienced and accurate and has a quick release and A-plus leadership skills. Consider this: Gabriel has a 22-to-3 TD-to-INT ratio against ranked opponents over the past three seasons. The guy seems to be at his best when the spotlight gets hotter and the competition gets better, and this game is as big as it can get. Nike founder and Oregon booster Phil Knight, at 86, finally gets his college football national title.

GO DEEPER

Oregon goes unbeaten (with swagger) in first Big Ten season. And the Ducks aren’t finished

(Top illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; photos: James Black, Aaron J. Thornton, James Gilbert / Getty Images)

Trade details: New York Yankees acquire OF/1B Cody Bellinger and cash considerations from the Chicago Cubs for RHP Cody Poteet

The Yankees needed another bat after the departure of Juan Soto, and they got one on the cheap, so to speak, trading a replacement-level arm to the Cubs and taking on about 90 percent of Bellinger’s remaining contract. Bellinger makes the Yankees somewhat better, but I don’t think he does enough to address their lineup questions, and he may end up pushing their top prospect — Jasson Domínguez — out of his best position.

If I were in the Yankees’ shoes, I would have preferred to acquire Seiya Suzuki, whose OBP skills would be a perfect fit for a Yankees lineup that is going to have serious problems putting guys on base. Among Yankees currently on their roster, Aaron Judge is the only one who had an OBP over .324 last year, and the only one who had an OBP over .319 against left-handed pitchers.

Bellinger’s OBP last year was .325, just a tick below his career OBP of .334, and his OBP against lefties in 2024 was just .305 (career .321). Adding him to a lineup that will already have left-handed regulars at a minimum at second base (Jazz Chisholm Jr.) and catcher (Austin Wells) — as well as the switch-hitting Domínguez, who is substantially better batting left-handed — isn’t solving any of their main offensive problems.

Trading for Suzuki rather than Bellinger would also have allowed the Yankees to keep Domínguez at his natural position of center. It appears that New York intends to play Bellinger in center, even though he’s just an average defender there, and slide Domínguez to left, where he’ll eventually be a plus defender, but struggled in his first stint there in 2024. They could also put Bellinger at first base, where’s he’s still plus, and restore Domínguez to center, assuming the club misses out on or declines to sign one of the remaining free-agent first basemen, like Christian Walker, or decide instead to sign outfielder Teoscar Hernández.

Bellinger does have pull power, and as a left-handed hitter, he could get a few extra homers out of Yankee Stadium’s short right field. His pull percentage was actually at a career low 40.5 percent this past season, which is still higher than the MLB average, and I assume the Yankees will encourage him to restore his higher pull rates of prior years. Even his relatively low home run total from 2024 of 18 would rank third among returning Yankees, behind only Judge and Giancarlo Stanton.

I’ve buried the lede a little here, though, which is that the Yankees got Bellinger for free. They traded Cody Poteet, a 30-year-old right-hander who has been a replacement-level pitcher by FanGraphs’ WAR, which is likely more accurate than bWAR in his case given his .237 BABIP allowed in the majors and .302 BABIP allowed in Triple A. (That is, he’s been super lucky in the majors, because his time in Triple A says he has no special ability to limit hits on balls in play that would support him sustaining such a low major-league BABIP going forward.)

The Yankees are even getting $2.5 million from the Cubs in each of the next two years, so they’ll pay Bellinger $25 million this year, and $22.5 million in 2026 if he doesn’t opt out. (If he opts out, the two clubs will split his $5 million buyout.) That’s a bit rich for his 2.2 WAR performance this past season, but a steal if he gets back to his 4.4 WAR performance from 2023. I can talk all day about how Suzuki was a better fit, but he also would have cost them something more in prospects or young big leaguers than Bellinger did. Suzuki also has a no-trade clause, which may have complicated a deal.

I’d be a lot more unhappy to see the Cubs dump a salary had they not just made a big swing for Kyle Tucker, and if this makes them more inclined to go trade for or sign a No. 2 starter, than all the better. The Cubs’ owner shouldn’t be crying penury, but if moving Bellinger — a fine but ultimately superfluous player on this roster, which still probably has more outfielders than they can play — makes adding that one additional arm feasible, I’m good with it.

The Cubs need one more arm ahead of their passel of back-end starters, including Jameson Taillon (who bounced back to 2.2-2.3 WAR last year), the forever underrated Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks, and Ben Brown (who I think is probably better suited to the bullpen). As with their lineup prior to the Tucker trade, they’ve assembled a really good rotation of 2-3 WAR starters. Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga were at exactly 3.0 fWAR last year, although Steele is better than that when fully healthy. They need a better starter out front, whether it’s ahead of or just behind Steele.

The budget room they just regained from trading Bellinger should go right into pitching — not into Tom Ricketts’ pocket.

(Top photo of Bellinger: Orlando Ramirez / USA Today)

The Atlanta Falcons are making the move they clearly did not want to make – replacing veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins with rookie Michael Penix Jr. starting immediately.

Falcons head coach Raheem Morris announced the decision Tuesday night in a statement released by the team.

“After review we have made the decision Michael Penix Jr. will be the Atlanta Falcons starting quarterback moving forward,” the statement read. “This was a football decision and we are fully focused on preparing the team for Sunday’s game against the New York Giants.”

That statement came less than four hours after Morris had hinted at the move during a regularly scheduled news conference the day after the Falcons improved to 7-7 by beating the Raiders 15-9 in Las Vegas.

“We didn’t play particularly well at the quarterback position,” Morris said. “That’s the thing that’s got to be addressed.”

Penix was drafted eighth by the Falcons in April. It was a surprise move at the time considering the organization had signed Cousins to a four-year free-agency deal the previous month that guaranteed the 13-year veteran $90 million in salary the first two seasons and had a total potential worth of $180 million.

The plan at the time was to sit Penix behind Cousins for at least a year, and Morris had been holding out hope as recently as last week that he could stick with that plan. The head coach, who was hired in January, repeatedly referred to Penix as “the future” and said the Falcons were committed to their “plan” at the position.

“You can look at organizations that have put young guys out there too early, and it’s gone terrible and I don’t want to be that guy,” Morris said last week. “I do know the plan that I have and what I want to do for that young man.”

However, Cousins’ last five games convinced the Falcons they could no longer stick to the plan. He threw nine interceptions and one touchdown in that span and ranked 33rd in the league in expected points added per dropback (minus-.14). When the quarterback was told Monday night that Morris said he needed to play better, Cousins replied, “It’s stating the obvious.”

“I don’t think that’s a mystery,” he said after passing for 112 yards. “Every week you go through your process and plan to go out there and play the very best you can. This week will be no different.”

Morris said Tuesday that he didn’t notice any physical issues with Cousins that “jump off the page.” The 36-year-old returned this season from a ruptured Achilles tendon that ended his 2023 season after eight games.

“Some of it is natural progress of erosion through a football season,” Morris said of Cousins’ appearance in the pocket.

The start to Cousins’ season made it look like Atlanta’s long-term plan was going to work. He was fourth in the league in passing yards (2,328) and touchdowns (17) and seventh in EPA per dropback (.15) through Week 9, and the Falcons raced to a two-game lead in the NFC South.

From there, though, Atlanta lost four straight and fell behind Tampa Bay (8-6) in the division as Cousins floundered. According to The Athletic’s projections, the Falcons now have a 23 percent chance to win the division and a 31 percent chance to make the playoffs.

“Kirk got us into a point of contention,” Morris said last week. “You have to have the resolve to stay steady-handed with a guy you believe in. I don’t want to be like some organizations that make harsh decisions on your people when they make their mistakes. It’s our job and my job to back him at the highest level of certainty to get him to get out there and play better. He’s going to come out of this thing, and he’s going to go on a run here.”

He didn’t, though, and now the Falcons are turning to Penix, the former University of Washington quarterback who led the Huskies to the national title game last season and twice was a Heisman Trophy finalist. How the Falcons handle Cousins from here is an open question. It would cost them $65 million in dead money if they released him after this season, according to Over the Cap. If they hold on to him through the 2025 season either in a return to the starting role or as a backup, they could cut him after that season and incur only a $25 million dead cap hit.

The Falcons could also attempt to trade Cousins this offseason. The Raiders, Titans and Giants are expected to draft a quarterback but might also be interested in bringing in a veteran to help the transition. The Saints, Panthers, and Jets could also make changes.

Cousins’ track record of success will give him some value on the trade market despite this season, in which he stands 17th in EPA per dropback (minus-.05). However, his time ends in Atlanta, this is not how anyone envisioned it.

Required reading

(Photo: Kevin Sabitus / Getty Images)