Culture
Projecting each NFL playoff team's odds to win Super Bowl, with divisional matchup analysis
Thirty-two teams embarked on a mission this season to win Super Bowl LVIII. Eight teams remain.
Jeff Howe breaks down each of the four divisional-round matchups this weekend before The Athletic’s projection model, created by Austin Mock, reveals each team’s odds of winning the Super Bowl.
AFC
A look at the AFC playoff bracket after the Bills’ win over the Steelers.
◽️ Ravens-Texans: Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET
◽️ Bills-Chiefs: Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ETWho do you think advances to the Conference Championships? pic.twitter.com/fsz3vSg6bP
— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) January 16, 2024
No. 1 Baltimore Ravens vs. No. 4 Houston Texans, 4:30 p.m. ET, Saturday
Texans rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud dazzled in his playoff debut by completing 16 of 21 passes for 274 yards and three touchdowns. Stroud’s poise has been remarkable at this early juncture of his career. He has completed at least 75 percent of his passes in three consecutive games and hasn’t thrown an interception in six straight.
Perhaps no one strengthened their head-coaching candidacy more over wild-card weekend than Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and teams with vacancies will be monitoring his chess match against Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald. The Ravens have allowed an average of 15.5 points over their last four games against quality competition (the Jacksonville Jaguars, San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins and Pittsburgh Steelers).
GO DEEPER
What C.J. Stroud and his parents saw early, the world is seeing now
Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has a strong chance to claim his second MVP Award next month, but there’s pressure on him to perform in the playoffs, where he has lost three of his four career starts and completed less than 60 percent of his passes in each loss.
The Ravens won these franchises’ only playoff meeting 12 years ago.
No. 2 Buffalo Bills vs. No. 3 Kansas City Chiefs, 6:30 p.m. ET, Sunday
The weekend’s marquee matchup will mark Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ postseason road debut. The Chiefs have been spottier than usual this season, but their defense doesn’t slump; it hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in six consecutive games.
The Bills’ six-game winning streak began in Kansas City in Week 14, and they’ve been knocking off quality opponents along the way. Four of those six wins came against playoff teams, including Monday’s victory against the Steelers.
Of course, the biggest story here is the rematch between two of the AFC’s most prominent powers in recent years. Mahomes has knocked off quarterback Josh Allen’s Bills twice in the playoffs since the 2020 season, and both games were entertaining offensive affairs.
The Chiefs are trying to reach their sixth consecutive conference championship game, and the Bills are hoping to avoid their third straight loss in the divisional round.
NFC
The NFC Divisional round is set.
◽️ 49ers vs. Packers
◽️ Lions vs. BuccaneersCall it now. Who advances to the NFC Conference Championship? pic.twitter.com/D2RzHcRhYe
— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) January 16, 2024
No. 1 San Francisco 49ers vs. No. 7 Green Bay Packers, 8 p.m. ET, Saturday
The Packers, who now have as many playoff wins at AT&T Stadium as the Dallas Cowboys (three), delivered the biggest upset of the wild-card round behind big-time performances from quarterback Jordan Love and running back Aaron Jones. They had an incredibly disciplined game plan to control the game on the ground, take their shots when necessary and prevent big plays on defense, and they executed it to perfection. The combination of great coaching and high-level production should make the 49ers nervous because those traits can carry over in the playoffs.
The 49ers allowed the third-fewest rushing yards in the regular season, but that’s because their opponents were forced to play from behind so frequently that the Niners faced the least amount of rushing attempts in the league. They allowed 4.1 yards per carry, which ranked 14th and was just marginally better than Dallas (4.2).
GO DEEPER
Cracks in the 49ers’ playoff machine? Yes, but you have to squint to find them
The Niners are the well-earned No. 1 seed and have legitimate Super Bowl aspirations, but there’s cause for concern as they prepare for a hot and confident Green Bay team that has won four in a row and seven of nine. The Niners sat several of their starters in the regular-season finale, so they’re about to find out if they’re rested or rusty after many of their stars haven’t played since New Year’s Eve.
The 49ers have won four consecutive playoff meetings against the Packers.
No. 3 Detroit Lions vs. No. 4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 3 p.m. ET, Sunday
Nobody threw a bigger party over the weekend than the Lions, who won their first playoff game in 32 years and captured just their second postseason victory since 1957. They’ll host multiple games in one postseason for the first time in the franchise’s 94-year history.
GO DEEPER
Lions’ first playoff win in 32 years was pure grit, followed by tears of joy
This will be a rematch between two tough teams, as the Lions won in Tampa 20-6 in Week 6. The Buccaneers just beat up the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday night and won’t back down against the favored Lions in a hostile environment. It’s also a matchup between quarterbacks Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield, each of whom was taken with the No. 1 pick but has since found success with new organizations.
These teams have met once before in the playoffs, with the Buccaneers winning 20-10 in 1997.
GO DEEPER
Does offense or defense win Super Bowls? How the best teams perform in the NFL playoffs
(Photo of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen: David Eulitt / Getty Images)
“The Football 100,” the definitive ranking of the NFL’s best 100 players of all time, is on sale now. Order it here.
Culture
Book Review: ‘Selling Opportunity,’ by Mary Lisa Gavenas
SELLING OPPORTUNITY: The Story of Mary Kay, by Mary Lisa Gavenas
Mary Kay, the cosmetics company whose multilevel marketing included sales parties and whose biggest earners were awarded pink Cadillacs, was really in the business of selling second chances. Or, at least, that’s what Mary Lisa Gavenas argues in “Selling Opportunity,” a dual biography of the brand and the woman behind it.
Mary Kathlyn Wagner, who would become Mary Kay Ash, “the most famous saleswoman in the world” and “maybe the most famous ever,” in Gavenas’s extravagant words, was born in 1918 to a poor family and raised mostly in Houston. Although a good student, she eloped at 16 with a slightly older boy. The young couple had two babies in quick succession.
Mary Kay’s creation was a combination of timing and good luck. Door-to-door sales was a thriving industry — but, traditionally, a man’s world: Lugging heavy samples was not considered feminine, and entering the homes of strangers, unsafe. But things began to change during the Great Depression, Gavenas suggests, thanks to a convergence of factors — financial pressures and the rise of the aspirational prosperity gospel espoused by Dale Carnegie’s self-help manuals.
At the same time, female-run beauty lines like Annie Turnbo Malone’s Poro and Madam C.J. Walker’s were finding great success in Black communities. And, coincidentally or otherwise, the California Perfume Company changed its name to Avon Products in 1939.
Ash began by selling books door to door, moving on to Stanley Home Products in the 1940s. She was talented, but direct sales was a rough gig. Every party to show off wares was supposed to beget two more bookings; these led to sales that resulted in new recruits. But there was no real security or stability: no salary, no medical benefits, no vacations. “Stop selling and you would end up right back where you started. Or worse,” the author writes.
Gavenas, a onetime beauty editor who wrote “Color Stories,” takes her time unspooling Mary Kay’s tale, with a great deal of evident research. We learn about direct sales, women’s rights and Texas history.
But, be warned: Readers must really enjoy both this woman and this world to take pleasure in “Selling Opportunity.” Mary Kay the person keeps marrying, getting divorced or widowed and working her way through various sales jobs (it’s hard to keep track of the myriad companies and last names). Gavenas seems to leave no detail out. Thus, the 1963 founding of the eponymous beauty company doesn’t come until almost 200 pages in.
Beauty by Mary Kay included a Cleansing Cream, a Magic Masque and a Nite Cream (which containined ammoniated mercury, later banned by the F.D.A.). The full line of products — which was how Mary Kay strongly encouraged customers to buy them — ran to a steep $175 in today’s money. (To fail to acquire the whole set, Ash said, was “like giving you my recipe for chocolate cake but leaving out an important ingredient.”)
Potential clients attended gatherings at acquaintances’ homes — no undignified doorbell-ringing here — where they received a mini facial, then an application of cosmetics like foundation, lip color and cream rouge — and a wig. The company made $198,514 in sales its first year.
Although Ash may have seemed a pioneer, in many ways Mary Kay was a traditionalist company, whose philosophy was “God first, family second, career third.” Saleswomen, official literature dictated, were working to provide themselves with treats rather than necessities so as not to threaten their breadwinner husbands.
And yet, they were also encouraged to sell sell sell. Golden Goblet pendants were awarded for major orders. After the company started using custom pink Peterbilt trucks for shipping, it began commissioning those Cadillacs for top consultants. (Mary Kay preferred gifts to cash bonuses, lest women save the money to spend on practical things rather than the licensed frivolities.) The Cadillacs, always driven on company leases, would become industry legend and part of American pop culture lore. “Never to be run-down, repainted or resold, the cars would double as shining pink advertisements for her selling opportunity,” Gavenas writes.
The woman herself was iconic, too. While Ash was a product of the Depression, she was also undeniably over-the-top. She wore white suits with leopard trim, lived in a custom Frank L. Meier house and brought her poodle to the office.
Mary Kay went public in 1968, making her the first woman to chair a company on the New York Stock Exchange. By the 1990s, the Mary Kay headquarters near Dallas was almost 600,000 square feet. They commissioned a hagiographic company biopic; there was a Mary Kay consultant Barbie; they were making $1 billion in wholesale. When she died, in 2001, Ash was worth $98 million.
And yet, Gavenas cites that at the company’s height, in 1992, sales reps made on average just $2,400 per year.
Instead of so much time in the pink fantasia of Mary Kay, it would have been nice for a few detours showing how infrequently the opportunities the company sold were truly realized.
SELLING OPPORTUNITY: The Story of Mary Kay | By Mary Lisa Gavenas | Viking | 435 pp. | $35
Culture
Historical Fiction Books That Illustrate the Bonds Between Mother and Child
We often think of the past as if it were another world — and in some ways, it is. The politics, religion and social customs of other eras can be vastly different from our own. But one thing historians and historical fiction writers alike often notice is the constancy of human emotion. The righteous anger of a customer complaining about a Mesopotamian copper merchant in 1750 B.C. feels familiar. Tributes to beloved household pets from ancient Romans and Egyptians make us smile. And we are captivated by stories of love, betrayal and sacrifice from Homer to Shakespeare and beyond.
In literature, letters, tablets and even on coins, we find overwhelming evidence that people in the past felt the same emotions we do. Love, hate, fear, grief, joy: These feelings were as much a part of their lives as they are of our own. And they resonate especially acutely in the bond between mother and child. Here are eight historical novels that explore the meaning of motherhood across the centuries.
Culture
How ‘The Sheep Detectives’ Brought its Ovine Sleuths to Life
Sometime in the 2000s, the producer Lindsay Doran asked her doctor for a book recommendation. “I’m reading that book everybody’s reading,” the doctor replied. “You know, the one about the shepherd who’s murdered and the sheep solve the crime.”
Doran had not heard of the book, “Three Bags Full,” a best-selling novel by a German graduate student (“No one’s reading it,” she recalls responding, inaccurately), but she was struck by what sounded like an irresistible elevator pitch. “Everything came together for me in that one sentence,” she said. “The fact that it was sheep rather than some other animal felt so resonant.”
Doran spent years trying to extricate the book from a complicated rights situation, and years more turning it into a movie. The result, opening Friday, is “The Sheep Detectives,” which features Nicholas Braun and Emma Thompson as humans, and Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Patrick Stewart and others giving voice to C.G.I. sheep stirred from their customary ruminations by the death of their shepherd, George (Hugh Jackman).
The film, rated PG, is an Agatha Christie-lite mystery with eccentric suspects, a comically bumbling cop (Braun) and a passel of ovine investigators. It’s also a coming-of-age story about growing up and losing your innocence that might have a “Bambi”-like resonance for children. The movie’s sheep have a way of erasing unpleasant things from their minds — they believe, for instance, that instead of dying, they just turn into clouds — but learn that death is an inextricable part of life.
“In some ways, the most important character is Mopple, the sheep played by Chris O’Dowd,” the screenwriter, Craig Mazin, said in a video interview. “He has a defect — he does not know how to forget — and he’s been carrying his memories all alone.”
“Three Bags Full” is an adult novel that includes grown-up themes like drugs and suicide. In adapting it for a younger audience, Mazin toned down its darker elements, changed its ending, and — for help in writing about death — consulted a book by Fred Rogers, TV’s Mister Rogers, about how to talk to children about difficult subjects.
The journey from book to film has been long and circuitous. “Three Bags Full” was written by Leonie Swann, then a 20-something German doctoral student studying English literature. Distracting herself from her unwritten dissertation, on the topic of “the animal point of view in fiction,” she began a short story “playing around with the idea of sheep detectives,” she said. “And I realized it was more like a novel, and it wasn’t the worst novel I’d ever seen.”
Why sheep? “I wasn’t someone who was thinking about sheep all the time,” Swann, who lives in the English countryside and has a dog named Ezra Hound, said in a video interview. Yet they have always hovered on the periphery of her life.
There was a friendly sheep that she used to see on her way to school. There was an irate ram that once chased her through the streets of a Bavarian village. And there were thousands and thousands of sheep in the fields of Ireland, where she lived for a time. “There were so many of them, and you could tell there was a lot of personality behind them,” she said.
A book in which sheep are stirred to action had to be a mystery, she said, to motivate the main characters. “In a lot of other stories, you would have trouble making a sheep realize there’s a story there,” she said. “They would just keep grazing. But murder is an existential problem that speaks to sheep as well as humans.”
Swann (the name is a pseudonym; she has never publicly disclosed her real name) found a literary agent, Astrid Poppenhusen, who brought her manuscript to market. Published in 2005, the book was translated into 30 languages and ended up spending three and a half years on German best-seller lists. (The German title is “Glennkill,” after the village in which it takes place.) Other novels followed, including a sheep-centric sequel, “Big Bad Wool,” but Swann never finished her dissertation.
Doran, the producer, read the book — now published in the United States by Soho Press, along with four other Swann novels — soon after hearing about it. She was determined to make it into a movie. Whenever she told anyone about the idea, she said, she had them at “sheep.”
The director, Kyle Balda (whose credits include “Minions”), was so excited when he first read the script, in 2022, that “I immediately drove out to a sheep farm” near his house in Oregon, he said in a video interview. “Very instantly I could see the behavior of the sheep, their different personalities. I learned very quickly that there are more varieties of sheep than dogs.”
How to make the sheep look realistic, and how to strike the proper balance between their inherent sheep-iness and their human-esque emotions were important questions the filmmakers grappled with.
It was essential that “the sheep in this world are sheep” rather than humans in sheep’s clothing, Balda said. “It’s not the kind of story where they are partnered with humans and talking to each other.”
That means that like real sheep, the movie sheep have short attention spans. They’re afraid to cross the road. “They don’t drive cars; they don’t wear pants; they’re not joke characters saying things like, ‘This grass would taste better with a little ranch dressing,’” Doran said.
And whenever they speak, their words register to humans as bleating, the way the adult speech in “Peanuts” cartoons sounds like trombone-y gibberish to Charlie Brown and his friends.
Lily, the leader of the flock, is played by Julia Louis-Dreyfus. It is not her first time voicing an animal in a movie: She has played, among other creatures, an ant in “A Bug’s Life” and a horse in “Animal Farm.” “When I read the script, I thought, ‘Wow, this is so weird,’” she said in a video interview. “It’s not derivative of anything else.”
Lily is unquestionably not a person; among other things, like a real sheep, she has a relatively immobile face set off by lively ears. “But her journey is a human journey where she realizes certain things about life she didn’t understand,” Louis-Dreyfus said. “There’s also the question of being a leader, and how to do that when you’re questioning your own point of view.”
Nicholas Braun took easily to the role of Officer Tim, the inept constable charged with solving the shepherd’s murder.
“The part was a little Greg-adjacent in the beginning, and I don’t really want to play too many Gregs,” Braun said via video, referring to Cousin Greg, his hapless punching bag of a character in the TV drama “Succession.”
“I’m post-Greg,” he said.
It takes Officer Tim some time to notice that the neighborhood sheep might be actively helping him tackle the case. But Braun said that unlike Greg, who is stuck in perpetual ineptitude, Tim gets to grow into a braver and more assertive person, a take-charge romantic hero — much the way the sheep are forced into action from their default position of “just forgetting about it and moving on and going back to eating grass,” he said.
Braun mused for a bit about other potential animal detectives — horses, say, or cows — but concluded that the sheep in the film were just right for the job. He predicted that the movie would change people’s perception of sheep, much the way “Toy Story” made them “look at their toys, or their kids’ toys, differently.”
“I don’t think people are going to be eating as much lamb after this,” he said.,
-
Movie Reviews7 minutes ago1986 Movie Reviews – Dangerously Close, Fire with Fire, Last Resort, and Short Circuit | The Nerdy
-
World19 minutes agoTop 50 English-language news sites in the world in April: Just three newsbrands grow traffic in past month
-
News25 minutes agoThe New Harvard Trend? Getting Punched in the Face.
-
Politics31 minutes agoWhich Trump Tariffs Are in Place, in the Works or Ruled Illegal
-
Business37 minutes agoChina’s Exports and Imports Set Records in April Amid High Energy Costs
-
Science43 minutes agoVideo: Pentagon Releases U.F.O. Files
-
Health49 minutes agoHantavirus Vaccines and Treatments Are in the Pipeline
-
Culture1 hour agoBook Review: ‘Selling Opportunity,’ by Mary Lisa Gavenas