FOXBORO, Mass. — The New England Patriots are making a change at head coach, splitting with Jerod Mayo just one year after he replaced Bill Belichick. Now, a franchise that once exuded stability and success like no other in the NFL is about to have its third coach in just three seasons.

New England fired Mayo less than 90 minutes after the season ended Sunday, a disastrous 4-13 campaign (and a Week 18 win that cost the team the No. 1 pick in the draft) in which Mayo routinely seemed to be in over his head in everything from game planning to his remarks to the media. While Mayo was given one of the worst rosters in the NFL, one overseen by executive vice president of player personnel Eliot Wolf, the early indications are that Wolf will remain with the Patriots, according to a team source.

Patriots owner Robert Kraft called the decision to fire Mayo “one of the hardest decisions I have ever made.”

“Unfortunately, the trajectory of our team’s performances throughout the season did not ascend as I had hoped,” he said in a statement.

Statement from Patriots Chairman and CEO Robert Kraft: https://t.co/2YgHtzzBHK pic.twitter.com/GMXGgd768x

— New England Patriots (@Patriots) January 5, 2025

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It’s a shocking fall from 12 months ago when it was revealed that Mayo, then 37, was Kraft’s hand-picked replacement for Belichick after 24 years at the helm. Kraft had quietly put the succession plan in writing, meaning the Patriots didn’t have to interview a single candidate before handing Mayo the reins.

This time, that won’t be the case. The Patriots are expected to begin their search for a new head coach immediately, and, according to league sources, the early signs point to one person. Kraft and company are expected to pursue Mike Vrabel, the 49-year-old former Patriots linebacker who shined for Belichick from 2001 to 2008 during the team’s first dynasty, though the franchise must conduct additional interviews for the job in compliance with the league’s Rooney Rule.

Vrabel was the head coach of the Tennessee Titans for six years, leading them to two division titles and an AFC Championship Game appearance while amassing a 54-45 record. But last year, the trust in Vrabel began to erode when team brass watched Vrabel spend his bye weekend in Foxboro being inducted into the Patriots Hall of Fame while soaking up all things New England. During his on-field speech at halftime, Vrabel, still the Titans head coach, even said, “We’ve got a game to win,” in reference to the Patriots. Less than three months later, Vrabel was fired and didn’t land another head-coaching job.

“There’s got to be clear communication with ownership so that we understand as coaches what the expectations are,” Vrabel told The Athletic’s Zack Rosenblatt about what he’s looking for in his next job. “And I would like to be able to say that there’s a quarterback that you feel like you can win with — or that there’s a path to find the one that you can win with.”

For Vrabel, the Patriots likely check both of those boxes. Sources close to the situation believe Vrabel has shown interest in the Patriots’ potential vacancy in recent weeks. He also was interested in the Patriots gig a year ago after their split with Belichick before learning that Mayo had already been earmarked for the job.

At that point, the Patriots thought Mayo would be their coach for the next decade. Kraft and his fellow decision-makers saw Mayo as the right person to follow Belichick because he was a bridge to the franchise’s past success while offering a new path forward.

In the news conference announcing Mayo’s hiring last January, Kraft said he knew in 2019 that Mayo would be the next coach of the Patriots.

“I trust that Jerod is the right person to lead the Patriots back to championship-level contention and long-term success,” Kraft said at the time.

Instead, Mayo oversaw one of the Patriots’ worst seasons since Kraft purchased the team in 1994.

Mayo’s tenure started on a winning note with a surprise upset of the Cincinnati Bengals. Following four straight losses, Mayo turned to Drake Maye, the No. 3 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, as his starting quarterback, and benched veteran Jacoby Brissett. In the middle weeks of the season, the Patriots pulled out a last-second win over their archrival, the New York Jets, and a victory over the Chicago Bears. Things were looking up.

Kraft and the Patriots knew this season wouldn’t bring a lot of wins. It was the first year of a post-Belichick rebuild. The roster was bad. But they hoped Mayo would establish a culture that led to excitement and improvement by the end of the season.

Instead, the Patriots became a punching bag. After a Week 14 bye, they were blown out by the Arizona Cardinals, blew a 14-point lead to the Buffalo Bills and lost 40-7 at home to the Los Angeles Chargers. A loss on Sunday to the Bills would have clinched the No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft, but rookie backup quarterback Joe Milton led the Pats to a surprising 23-16 win.

In fairness to Mayo, many of the Patriots’ problems preceded him. The franchise is 10-31 in its last 41 games. The Pats haven’t scored 30 or more points in 45 straight games. They are 11-22 at home in the last four seasons. (Tom Brady lost fewer games at Gillette Stadium in his entire Patriots career, going 115-19 at home.) They’ve finished with a sub-.300 winning percentage in back-to-back years, something they hadn’t done since they were the AFL’s Boston Patriots in 1969 and 1970.

But there was no sense by the end of the season that Mayo had the team on track to fix its problems. No position on the roster besides quarterback improved under his tutelage. And while that is a notable exception, Maye’s success as a rookie also ups the importance of ensuring Year 2 is in the right hands.

“We have tremendous fans who expect and deserve a better product than we have delivered in recent years,” Kraft said Sunday. “I apologize for that. I have given much thought and consideration as to what actions I can take to expedite our return to championship contention and determined this move was the best option at this time.”

Mayo becomes the sixth one-and-done NFL coach in the last four seasons and the first one-and-done Patriots coach since Rod Rust went 1-15 with the team in 1990.

All of it proved to be too much too soon for Mayo. The original plan, as dreamt up by Kraft, would’ve been for Belichick to remain the Patriots head coach in 2024, break Don Shula’s all-time wins record and mentor Mayo. But after the succession plan was put into writing, the relationship between Belichick and Mayo deteriorated and Belichick, who was already insular in his approach, withdrew even further. The idea of having Belichick mentor Mayo quickly went by the wayside.

At that point, Kraft decided to split with Belichick and hand the reins to Mayo — even though it was a year earlier than planned and he hadn’t received the mentorship he originally planned on. Sure, Mayo would struggle early on. But the hope was he’d learn on the job and grow throughout the course of the year.

That didn’t happen. In a lot of ways, Mayo tried to be what Belichick wasn’t. As a former player, he tried to be a player-friendly coach, then blasted the whole team as “soft” after a Week 7 loss. He tried to be more affable than his mentor while speaking to the media, then had to walk back several remarks. He said the team would “burn some cash” in free agency, then reversed course a couple of days later and the Patriots didn’t sign any marquee free agents.

After a Week 15 loss, he was asked if offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt should’ve called a quarterback sneak on an important short-yardage play and replied, “You said it, I didn’t.” The next day, he walked back those comments as “a defensive response.” Before a Week 17 loss, he told the radio and TV broadcast crews that Rhamondre Stevenson wouldn’t start the game to send him a message about his recent fumbles. Then Stevenson started the game.

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More importantly, the on-field product regressed in embarrassing fashion. As a former linebacker who learned under Belichick, defense was supposed to be Mayo’s area of expertise. But a Patriots defense that ranked seventh in yards allowed per game (301.6) in 2023 dropped to 23rd (348.7 yards per game) in 2024. The team’s rushing defense, which ranked fourth in 2023, fell to 25th in 2024. The pass rush struggled to get pressure as the unit ranked last in the league with 28 sacks. The defense also surrendered 30 points or more six times this season.

Offensively, the Patriots didn’t score more than 25 points in a game all season long. While Maye’s ascension was a bright spot, the team lacked playmakers in the passing game and the offensive line allowed the fifth-most sacks in the league. Only the Bears and Carolina Panthers averaged fewer yards per game this season, and only the Cleveland Browns and New York Giants scored fewer points.

Part of the problem was Mayo’s inexperience and lack of familiarity with the rest of the NFL. He was drafted 10th by the Patriots in 2008. The University of Tennessee product spent eight seasons with the Patriots, reaching two Pro Bowls, winning Associated Press Defensive Rookie of the Year honors in 2008 and being named a first-team All-Pro in 2010. He played the entirety of his career for Belichick. He spent five years as a position coach with the Patriots and only ever worked for one coach: Belichick. So when it came time to fill out his staff, Mayo didn’t have the Rolodex of league-wide contacts most head coaches do.

He interviewed more than a dozen offensive coordinator candidates because several declined his offer. In the end, Mayo began his tenure surrounded by a first-time front office leader (Wolf), a first-time offensive play caller (Van Pelt), a first-time defensive coordinator (DeMarcus Covington), a first-time special teams coordinator (Jeremy Springer), a first-time linebackers coach (Dont’a Hightower), a first-time offensive line coach (Scott Peters) and a first-time wide receivers coach (Tyler Hughes).

The inexperience showed.

Sources from within the Patriots’ previous regime expressed skepticism that Mayo was ready to be a head coach. Several leaders thought he needed more experience with game planning, play calling and handling big situational decisions. How’d this season play out? “About how we thought,” one said.

Whether it’s Vrabel or someone else, the incoming coach will inherit a rising talent in Maye at quarterback, Stevenson at running back, cornerback Christian Gonzalez and a stout defensive line led by Keion White and Christian Barmore. New England will pick fourth in the 2025 draft. The team will also have a plethora of cap space to address multiple needs on the roster — most notably wide receiver, offensive line, defensive back and pass rusher.

— The Athletic‘s Jeff Howe contributed to this report.

Required reading

• Is coach Jerod Mayo’s job in question after another frustrating Patriots loss?
• How does Drake Maye compare to Mac Jones? They’re closer than you might think
• Patriots’ offseason priorities: A look at the team’s shopping list in free agency

(Photo: Richard Heathcote / Getty Images)