The Detroit Lions have never won 10 or more games in consecutive seasons. Will that change this year?

Can anything keep the two-time defending Kansas City Chiefs from nabbing the AFC’s top seed? Will Jayden Daniels’ arrival lift the Washington Commanders? Could Sean Payton’s Denver Broncos or Mike Tomlin’s Pittsburgh Steelers land among the league’s bottom feeders?

Let’s go to our experts to answer these questions, with the help of analytics and our eyes on the beat.

After running 10,000 simulations of the 2024 season, Austin Mock’s NFL betting model has calculated an expected win total for every team, from the San Francisco 49ers (11.4 wins) to the Washington Commanders (5.9). (You can see the AFC teams here and the NFC here.) Now, our beat writers are here to answer: Is the model too high, too low or just right regarding the team you cover?

San Francisco 49ers

Win total: 11.4

This feels just right. The 49ers won 13 games in 2022 and 12 games in 2023. Factor in the exhaustion from repeated postseason runs (the 49ers have played 60 games over the past three seasons), and another decline in win total this season would make sense. But the Niners, assuming there’s a resolution to the contractual situations involving Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk, might’ve actually upgraded their roster this offseason. Seven members of their 2024 draft class made the 53-man roster, including a starter at what had been the offense’s weakest position, right guard. And quarterback Brock Purdy is expected to improve with experience. The 49ers’ defense, coming off a down year, has seen a talent overhaul, which could help them stay in the 11- to 12-win range. — David Lombardi

Kansas City Chiefs

Win total: 11.3

Projecting the Chiefs to have the best record in the AFC is logical. But they could have more than 11 victories, especially if they sweep their two-game home series to start the season against the Ravens and the Bengals. The Chiefs are clearly favored to win their ninth consecutive AFC West crown. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have dominated the division, and the Chiefs have arguably the league’s best kicker in Harrison Butker, who usually gives them a critical advantage in tight games. The biggest concern is if their defense slides back in the rankings with L’Jarius Sneed, Willie Gay and Mike Edwards no longer on the roster. — Nate Taylor

Detroit Lions

Win total: 10.5

The case for the Lions exceeding 10.5 wins is that they won 12 games a year ago with a young roster and obvious holes. This offseason, they bolstered their secondary, added D.J. Reader and Marcus Davenport along the defensive line and expect their young players to take a step forward. At the same time, though, the Lions face a first-place schedule, and the division is tougher on paper. There’s a world in which the team is more complete overall but wins fewer games. But I have the Lions at 12 wins again, so it’s a touch low, in my opinion. — Colton Pouncy

Baltimore Ravens

Win total: 10.2

If you could guarantee Lamar Jackson will play 15 games or more, I’d say 10.2 wins is a bit low, simply because of how good Baltimore has been in the regular season with a healthy Jackson. However, you can’t do that, so 10.2 looks just right to me. The Ravens have a solid and deep team, but they play a really tough schedule and they have legitimate questions in two key areas: offensive line and edge rush. Those factors need to be considered. — Jeff Zrebiec

Cincinnati Bengals

Win total: 10.2

The Bengals had a fully healthy Joe Burrow for just five-and-a-half games last year. Their defense looked nothing like its previous self without Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell. They played one of the toughest schedules in the league. Very little went right. They still won nine games. A projection of 10.2 is solid, but I’d be more comfortable going over than under. They have questions, no doubt, but they added veteran safeties, the schedule appears dramatically easier, the offensive line is as solid as Burrow has played behind. As long as Burrow is healthy (all signs are good) with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins outside, 10 wins feels like the floor. — Paul Dehner Jr.

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Win total: 10.2

Mock writes, “Ultimately, this division comes down to how well Eagles QB Jalen Hurts plays.” I agree. And that’s why I still feel comfortable about my 12-5 prediction from the spring. Hurts was noticeably more polished in training camp. He was decisive, effective and dangerous on deep throws. The Eagles’ wealth of offensive talent could produce, at the very least, a top-five offense if Hurts can command this system properly. Owner Jeffrey Lurie has demonstrated patience with his head coaches so long as there’s confidence in a competitive path forward. But it’s worth wondering whether a 10-win season would be considered a regression under Nick Sirianni. — Brooks Kubena

Win total: 10.0

Despite Dallas’ three consecutive 12-win seasons, the model’s 10-win projection is right on line with what most would expect from the Cowboys. After winning the NFC East, the Cowboys have a tough first-place schedule, which includes games against the Ravens, 49ers, Lions, Eagles (twice), Texans and Bengals. If they remain mostly healthy in all of the key spots, anywhere between nine wins and 12 wins seems like a fair projection. — Saad Yousuf

Win total: 9.8

Mock has the Packers’ win total as the fifth-highest in the NFC. I think the Packers will win 10 or 11 games, so it’s just about right and, if anything, a tick low. Jordan Love and company won’t need the first half of the season to work out the kinks of unfamiliarity, and new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley seems to have his unit firing on all cylinders. The biggest question marks are offensive line depth, the kicker position and youth in the secondary. Shore up at least two of those three and the Packers will be a legitimate title contender. — Matt Schneidman

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Win total: 9.7

This seems just about right. A team led by Josh Allen in his prime should always be taken seriously. I’m sure, even with several questions about the Bills in 2024, Allen is why they have the AFC’s fourth-highest win total. But the questions are legitimate. The defense could take a real step back due to cap-cleaning offseason turnover and a long-term injury to linebacker Matt Milano. Plus, it’s a new offense without wideout Stefon Diggs or center Mitch Morse. The Bills could struggle with a tough early schedule, but don’t rule out a second-half surge once all the new pieces jell just in time for the playoffs. — Joe Buscaglia

Even with Aaron Rodgers’ healthy return to the Jets, Josh Allen’s team still has a slight edge on its division rival. (Sarah Stier / Getty Images)

Win total: 9.6

It’s hard to argue with this projection — and fascinating how tightly the AFC East teams are grouped. The Jets clearly have the most talented roster of the three from top to bottom, and if Aaron Rodgers can stay healthy, there’s no reason they should fall short of 10 wins. They had a top-five defense in each of the last two seasons, and the unit is still mostly intact (and could be even better if/when Haason Reddick finally reports). The offense should be vastly improved. Rodgers is obviously a major upgrade over Zach Wilson and last year’s rotation of backups, Breece Hall is fully healthy, Garrett Wilson is ready to break out and GM Joe Douglas did a good job rebuilding the offensive line this offseason. — Zack Rosenblatt

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Win total: 9.5

This matches the over/under from BetMGM, so the experts are aligned here. However, the Dolphins are coming off of an 11-win season, and with a light schedule to start the campaign, I lean toward the over here. I expect coach Mike McDaniel to field another offensive juggernaut while unleashing some new wrinkles that most defenses won’t be able to handle. I’m concerned about Miami’s defensive line without Christian Wilkins but also love the system new DC Anthony Weaver is implementing. I think Miami gets off to another hot start but will have to fight to get to 10 wins against what looks like a very tough closing slate (at Packers, vs. Jets, at Texans, vs. 49ers, at Browns, at Jets). — Jim Ayello

Win total: 9.4

If the Falcons don’t win at least 10 games, they’ll be disappointed, and they should be. They said they were ready to compete “at the highest level” when they fired Arthur Smith. They guaranteed Kirk Cousins $100 million. They traded for Matthew Judon and signed Justin Simmons. Eighty-one-year-old owner Arthur Blank is pushing all his chips in and making an expensive bet that this team is better than 9.4 wins. — Josh Kendall

Houston Texans

Win total: 9.0

The Texans were a surprise success story last season, going 10-7 and winning the AFC South. Mock projects them for nine wins this season, but I think they could again surpass that. C.J. Stroud has a season of experience under his belt. Bobby Slowik did well as a first-time play caller but will likely find ways to get even more out of Stroud this season, given the additional weapons (including Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon) acquired this offseason. Adding pass rusher Danielle Hunter in free agency should help both Will Anderson Jr. and the Texans’ defense as a whole. DeMeco Ryans’ squad has a good shot at another 10-win season and a return to the playoffs. — Mike Jones

Win total: 8.9

Nine wins feels about right for the Chargers. I had them at 10 in my prediction in May. Consider the extra game the Jim Harbaugh bump. The players are bought in. Harbaugh has led dramatic turnarounds in all of his head-coaching stops — San Diego University, Stanford, the San Francisco 49ers and Michigan. I believe he will have the same impact in Los Angeles. And, of course, the Chargers still have one of the best quarterbacks in football in Justin Herbert, who looked great in practice last week after returning from his plantar fascia injury. — Daniel Popper

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Win total: 8.8

This feels a little low for a team that exceeded expectations in 2023 and added more resources to both sides of the ball. Injuries will be a major factor early, with the Rams returning multiple key players from absence: Jonah Jackson (shoulder), Puka Nacua (knee) and Darious Williams (hamstring). They should get starting right tackle Rob Havenstein (ankle) back either in Week 1 or by Week 3. Starting left tackle Alaric Jackson (ankle, suspension) will be back in Week 3. No, there’s no Aaron Donald — but a depleted Rams team won 10 games last season. They will go as quarterback Matthew Stafford goes. — Jourdan Rodrigue

Cleveland Browns

Win total: 8.7

The Browns have a much higher ceiling than 8.7 wins, and internally, they’d say the roster is better than last year’s version that went 11-5 despite having to play five different quarterbacks. But just one quarterback matters in the present and future, and Deshaun Watson just had an unimpressive training camp while coming off of shoulder surgery. He hasn’t played a live snap in almost 10 months and has played 12 games in the last three years. The Browns have a lot of talent, but can they count on Watson? I’d say eight or nine wins feels right. — Zac Jackson

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Win total: 8.2

The Saints entered last year as a no-brainer favorite to win the NFC South with one of the league’s easiest schedules. They only won nine games and missed the playoffs. Their schedule doesn’t seem much tougher this season, but the NFC South improved around them and New Orleans didn’t grow enough along the roster this offseason. These are legitimate reasons as to why the Saints aren’t the favorites in a still seemingly weak division. So an 8.2-win projection feels fair. These projections also indicate the Saints would miss the playoffs for the fourth consecutive season, which would likely mean a new coach and new quarterback for the 2025 campaign. — Larry Holder

Win total: 8.2

Seattle went 9-8 thanks to narrow Week 18 victories in each of Pete Carroll’s final two seasons. Mike Macdonald inherited much of the same roster, so even if his new coaching staff is better, this projection feels accurate. The NFC West is a tough division, and Seattle has legitimate questions at inside linebacker and offensive line. Plus there might naturally be some growing pains along the way with an entirely new coaching staff led by a first-year head coach and first-year offensive coordinator. — Michael-Shawn Dugar

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Win total: 8.1

The Bears trail the Lions (10.5) and Packers (9.8), but a nine- or 10-win season doesn’t feel like a reach, either. The Bears beat the division-winning Lions last year — and coach Matt Eberflus’ defense should be better this season. Quarterback Caleb Williams will have his rookie moments, but he’s surrounded by talent with receivers DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze, tight ends Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett and running back D’Andre Swift. They’ll all help with Williams’ growing pains. — Adam Jahns

Win total: 8.1

I think this is a 10-win team. And if the Jaguars play closer to the version that went 15-5 from late 2022 to early 2023, they might have 12-win potential. Of course, a lot will have to go right for that to materialize. My biggest concern is the Jags start at the Dolphins, return home for the Browns, then visit the Bills and Texans. If they aren’t on point and fall to 0-4, there’s no telling what that could do to their confidence. But barring a catastrophe of that magnitude, they’ve got enough winnable games over the final three months of the season to exceed the projected 8.1 wins. — Jeff Howe

Pittsburgh Steelers

Win total: 7.6

Mike Tomlin has been the model of consistency, never finishing with a losing record in 17 seasons as coach. The biggest threat to that streak is one of the NFL’s most challenging schedules. The Steelers play in arguably the league’s most competitive division. The backstretch is brutal, with three games — at Baltimore, at Philadelphia and vs. Kansas City — in 10 days in December. Still, it would be hard to bet against Tomlin’s history, making the 7.6 win projection a little low. The remade offensive line and new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith should help. If Tomlin can get to .500 or better with Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges at QB, he should be able to do it with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. — Mike DeFabo

Win total: 7.5

The Colts won nine games last year primarily with backup QB Gardner Minshew at the helm. Their schedule is tougher this season, but the belief internally is that a healthy Anthony Richardson can elevate the entire team. I agree that Richardon’s dual-threat abilities make him capable of leading Indianapolis to more wins than Mock’s projected 7.5, though the inexperienced secondary could be a big weakness. Assuming the back end doesn’t completely fall apart, I’ll pencil the Colts in for 10 wins and their first playoff berth since 2020. — James Boyd

The Colts have their sights set high with Anthony Richardson back and healthy. (Justin Casterline / Getty Images)

Win total: 7.5

Internal expectations and fan expectations are much greater than this. According to Mock’s model, the Bucs are 11th in the NFC and third in the NFC South behind the Saints and Falcons. The Bucs won nine last year, and the general perception is they improved in the offseason with the additions of Jordan Whitehead, Graham Barton and Jalen McMillan. Whether they improve or slide might depend largely on quarterback Baker Mayfield, who had a breakout year in 2023 and is adjusting to new offensive coordinator Liam Coen, who has replaced Dave Canales. — Dan Pompei

Win total: 7.3

The quarterback selection of Gardner Minshew over Aidan O’Connell didn’t move the needle much, so it’s no surprise that Mock has the Raiders at 7.3 wins, just clearing the Vegas over-under line of 6.5 wins. The defense should be very good, Davante Adams is still one of the best offensive players in the league, and first-round pick Brock Bowers should have a big impact at tight end. Problems could arise if there are any injuries, as the Raiders are not deep and new general manager Tom Telesco is taking the long view with salary-cap space. And if the Raiders get off to a slow start, Adams might call for a trade, so … 7.3 sounds good, but there is some shaky ground. — Vic Tafur

Win total: 7.1

Local optimism is high. And it should be. Kyler Murray is healthy. The talent around him is better. The Cardinals are trending in the right direction. But coming off a four-win first season under coach Jonathan Gannon, 7.1 wins in Year 2 sounds right. GM Monti Ossenfort inherited a significant rebuilding job, and the worst thing he could’ve done was try to do too much too soon. This is the next step. Maximize Murray. Improve defensively. Develop depth. Learn how to win. Reversals can happen quickly, but for the Cardinals, there are no shortcuts. — Doug Haller

Win total: 6.8

There are days when Mock’s projection feels low — and other days when it feels high. Is it underrating Brian Flores’ defense? Is it accurately assessing quarterback Sam Darnold? Maybe yes, maybe no. If you think it’s too high, it’s probably because of the schedule. The Vikings open with the Giants, then face a gauntlet: 49ers, Texans, Packers, Jets, Lions and Rams. Those six teams have incredible talent and high-end coaching. If you see 6.8 wins as too low, you are probably looking at Darnold’s situation alongside Justin Jefferson and head coach Kevin O’Connell and thinking an explosive offense is in store. Both viewpoints make sense. Anyone who thinks they know how it’ll play out is overconfident. — Alec Lewis

Win total: 6.8

This is on the low side of the Titans’ range, but six or seven wins is certainly possible, especially with the tough NFC North on the schedule. This is a very difficult team to project considering the changes and unknowns. A first-time head coach (Brian Callahan) with first-time coordinators (Nick Holz, Dennard Wilson) will rely heavily on draft picks plugged into key roles immediately (left tackle JC Latham, defensive tackle T’Vondre Sweat), and hope key veteran acquisitions (L’Jarius Sneed, Calvin Ridley, Chidobe Awuzie, Tony Pollard, Quandre Diggs) have best-case seasons. Oh, and the Titans hope they have a franchise quarterback in Will Levis. They just don’t know yet. — Joe Rexrode

Win total: 6.7

It’s wild to say about a team with a projection of only 6.7 wins, but this seems too high. The Patriots went 4-13 a year ago, parted with the greatest coach of all time and brought back a remarkably similar roster to last season. Drake Maye won’t be starting at quarterback, the wide receiver and offensive line groups both rank among the league’s worst, and the defense got worse in recent weeks after losing its top two pass rushers (Christian Barmore was diagnosed with blood clots and is out indefinitely, while Matthew Judon was traded to the Falcons). — Chad Graff

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New York Giants

Win total: 6.7

This is right on target. The Giants won six games last year and, yes, there was a Murphy’s Law element involved with so many injuries to top players. But it’s not as simple as expecting improvement if the team manages to stay healthier. First, quarterback Daniel Jones has a lengthy injury history, so health isn’t a given. Additionally, the Giants are without some top players from last season’s roster (Saquon Barkley, Xavier McKinney, Leonard Williams). They traded for Brian Burns and drafted Malik Nabers in the first round with the expectation they’ll be game-changers on both sides of the ball. But there are enough question marks with the roster to temper expectations. — Dan Duggan

Win total: 6.4

The model was not kind to the Panthers, who sit ahead of only Denver (6.0) and Washington (5.9). But it feels about right, considering I picked the Panthers to go 6-11 when schedules were released in May. It’s reasonable to think Bryce Young will take a step forward in a new offensive system and with improved blockers and playmakers. But with sizable holes at cornerback and edge rusher, the defense could take a step back. — Joseph Person

Denver Broncos

Win total: 6.0

This is too low. In 16 seasons as an NFL head coach, Sean Payton has never won fewer than seven games. The Broncos went 8-9 last season, then jettisoned a handful of veterans like Russell Wilson, Justin Simmons and Jerry Jeudy. But Wilson’s replacement at quarterback, Bo Nix, looks more ready to run Payton’s offense than I initially expected. A personnel overhaul in the front seven will make the Broncos better against the run. Many players are in Year 2 in their schemes, and it’s been easy to see the impact of that continuity in training camp. It’s fair to sell the Broncos as a playoff team, but seven wins feels like the floor to me. — Nick Kosmider

Washington Commanders

Win total: 5.9

The broad oddsmakers set the win total at 6.5, a number that many Jayden Daniels believers find shockingly low. Mock’s model went even lower with a league-worst 5.9 wins. What the projections cannot easily consider is the Commanders’ renewed competitive spirit under coach Dan Quinn. Daniels’ upside and more weekly consistency should push Washington above Mock’s number, but it might take injury and bounce-of-the-ball luck (and better-than-expected CB and OT play) to reach seven wins or sniff .500. — Ben Standig

(Illustration: Meech Robinson / The Athletic; photos: Ryan Kang, Perry Knotts, Jaiden Tripi / Getty Images)

Like many culture-shaping trends, it started on TikTok.

Posts by Norwegian swimmer Henrik Christiansen, now widely known as the “muffin man,” showcased the chocolate muffins served in the Olympic Village during the Summer Games. Christiansen’s posts, highlighting his adoration of the fudgy morsels, drew millions of views as he competed at the Paris Olympics and led to numerous duplicate muffin recipes (including one in The New York Times).

But one New York City-based fan of Christiansen’s posts didn’t want to settle for only a reproduction.

Instead, Kelin Carolyn Zhang, a 32-year-old independent designer, wondered if she could try the real deal. There was an initial hurdle, however, since the supplier of the famed Olympic chocolate muffins, Coup de Pates, completes only wholesale orders such as those placed by restaurants and businesses rather than direct-to-consumer, she said. As she attempted to obtain the authentic muffins, Zhang documented her research and her quest to bring them stateside on TikTok, leading to a connection in the restaurant industry that helped make her wish possible.

“The entire situation just kept escalating, and I found it incredibly hilarious, and so I kept going,” Zhang said.

The “extremely random rabbit hole” of muffin research, as she described it, eventually resulted in a shipment of 15 cases containing 300 of the chocolate muffins — presumably the same ones served to athletes at the Olympics and Paralympics, though Coup de Pates did not respond to requests for comment on the topic. The muffins were air-freighted overnight on dry ice on a flight from Paris Orly Airport to Newark Liberty International Airport in New Jersey, Zhang said. The shipment required FDA approval, and the muffins had to clear customs before they were transported by van to the New York cafe Isshiki Matcha in the East Village, where the first pop-up event was held Aug. 17.

Once the event was announced, something of a local frenzy ensued. The first customer lined up outside the cafe at 6 a.m. — the event started four hours later. The line wrapped around the block twice, and the muffins — limited to one per customer for $10 — sold out in roughly two hours, according to Isshiki Matcha owner Angel Zheng, who said her friends who arrived late didn’t get one.

Zheng became involved after a friend tagged her in one of Zhang’s TikTok posts and suggested the two women work together to bring the muffins to New York City.

“I just really like side quests,” Zheng said. “I like doing things for the plot. I’m very young — I’m 24. I’m not a big corporation. I don’t have a boss with a 20-person chain of command. I open restaurants and it brings so much joy to people. So I was like, if it works, it works. And if it doesn’t, at least we tried.”

Pulling off the event was no small feat, as the process included many logistical hurdles, which Zhang recounted in detail on X. Coup de Pates had never exported to New York before, so there was no system in place to get the goods from the plane to the restaurant, as Zheng was used to with other suppliers, meaning she and Zhang had to coordinate ground transportation. Zheng also said she purchased a new fridge for the restaurant big enough to store all the muffins, and that costs accounting for customs and transportation were expensive, but she was “glad to do it.”

Plus, it wasn’t a one-off. Isshiki Matcha announced a second pop-up event beginning at 10 a.m. Saturday with the Paralympics underway. This time, they placed a bigger order — for 1,000 muffins, which Zhang said they’ll sell until supplies run out.

Zhang said she expects a smaller turnout this time given the late notice on the announcement and figures potential customers may be out of town for the holiday weekend.

olympic muffins are back in nyc for the paralympics!

available 10am tomorrow (sat 8/31), 1 per person, first come first serve @ isshiki matcha

got 1000 muffs this time. popup continues to sunday if supplies last https://t.co/sPoxMoLnH2 pic.twitter.com/E26ajZAach

— kelin (@kelin_online) August 30, 2024

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But Zhang said she was already able to try a second muffin thanks to the latest shipment. Despite all the coordination of the first event, she tried only one given the demand.

“Can you believe it?” she said.

According to Zhang and Zheng, the hype surrounding the muffins is valid. And yes, Zhang confirmed, they are chocolate cakes. Zheng said she thinks it’s the best muffin she’s ever tried, adding to a chorus of positive reviews of the treats, many shared on TikTok, including by American Olympians Gabby Thomas, Tara Davis-Woodhall, Abbey Weitzeil and Torri Huske. More reviews could be forthcoming during the Paralympics, as the Paralympic Games X account seemed to indicate the muffins were available to competitors.

Okay…we need to know if any of our Paralympians have tried THE chocolate muffin in the athlete’s village yet 🍫

Athletes tag in and let us know…

📸 Getty Images pic.twitter.com/r8jgZ6BSwE

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— Paralympic Games (@Paralympics) August 29, 2024

The popularity of the pastries has transcended the athlete’s village, and thanks to Zhang and Zheng, the muffins have reached a new set of reviewers on another continent.

“I feel like the magic of these muffins is that no one could get their hands on them besides Olympic athletes,” Zheng said. “I don’t think that it’s about making chocolate muffins.”

Zheng added that her takeaway from the endeavor was that “anything’s possible with the power of the internet.”

Zhang, whose background is in digital product design, said she had never worked in partnership with a restaurant or cafe before her muffin search and that “hopefully this whole story can inspire other people to take matters into their own hands.”

“The (first) muffin pop-up itself was so wholesome,” she said. “People were having fun in line. That’s what I’m really proud of — is just helping people have a good time and come together.”

She wasn’t aware of any plans for a third pop-up and highlighted the relevant events.

“I do think it’s pretty special to keep it just around the Olympics and Paralympics,” she said. “And that adds to the overall excitement.”

Regardless, Zhang’s quest had a satisfying end. She and Zheng — along with those dedicated enough to their shared muffin pursuits to wait out the lines — finally ate like Olympians.

(Photo courtesy of Kelin Carolyn Zhang)

In the days before his first Super Bowl, Patrick Mahomes was on a practice field with a small group of offensive players and coaches while the rest of the team worked on special teams.

In Mahomes’ early years as an NFL quarterback, the Kansas City Chiefs’ special teams period had become his personal lab — the time he could push the boundaries of what was possible, breaking rules, inventing plays, experimenting with new mechanics. Chiefs coach Andy Reid had a phrase for that way of thinking: “I’m giving you the keys,” he’d say.

At practice before the biggest game of his young career, Mahomes turned the keys and floored the gas. As he sprinted out to his right, he pulled the ball down and went full Magic Johnson, flinging a behind-the-back pass to tight end Travis Kelce. Deland McCullough, the Chiefs’ running backs coach at the time, watched in stunned silence.

“I’m not talking about Travis being 10 yards away,” McCullough said. “Travis might have been 25, 30 yards away.”

It wasn’t the last time Mahomes flirted with a behind-the-back pass. He teased the possibility in interviews and lobbied Reid to let him try it in a game, convinced he could pull it off. Last season, former Chiefs receiver Marcus Kemp was so sure that Mahomes still wanted to attempt a behind-the-back pass that he was hesitant to talk about it.

“I think Pat is still trying to get it in,” Kemp said. “He has been for probably three years now.”

When Mahomes finally pulled it out in the preseason, finding Kelce against the Lions on Aug. 17, the internet did its usual thing. But the most revealing reaction came from Reid, the man who loaned Mahomes the keys years ago.

“I’ve been telling you to do that for a while,” Reid told his quarterback.

The Reid-Mahomes partnership is already one of the most successful in NFL history.

In the six seasons since Mahomes became the full-time starter, no team in the league has won more games or scored more points. There are also the three Super Bowl trophies, the six straight appearances in the AFC Championship game and the prospect this season of the first Super Bowl three-peat, but the relationship is more than results. It is an innovative force more in line with Lennon-McCartney or Wozniak-Jobs, a prolific duo that thrives on creative collaboration.

Reid, the 66-year-old son of a Hollywood set designer, doesn’t want his players to color outside the lines; he wants them to expand the boundaries to somewhere off the page. Mahomes, the 28-year-old son of a major-league pitcher, doesn’t just want to excel at quarterback; he wants to reimagine what the position looks like.

“(Reid) has made this environment around him where he keeps people around who he believes have the same core values,” Kemp said. “I do believe he brought in Pat for that reason.”

“That environment was like, ‘Wow,’” McCullough said. “The juices were always flowing.”

Reid pushed Mahomes to think bigger from their first practices together in 2017. “I want you to stretch the offense,” the coach would tell his quarterback again and again.

That meant taking deep shots. Forcing tight-window throws. Exploring what was possible, even if it meant Mahomes might occasionally fail.

“Let’s see how far we can take it,” Reid would say.

As the two became more comfortable with each other — and as Mahomes displayed rare talent — they fostered a creative energy that allowed them to bring the most out of their individual abilities. Reid was the offensive guru who would try anything, the kind of tinkerer who once put a 350-pound nose tackle at running back and implored his assistants to follow a simple rule: “Don’t Judge.” Mahomes was the quarterback who believed he could pull off anything, a risk-taker who unleashed his first no-look pass during the fourth quarter of a close game in college.

Veteran players in Kansas City began to notice something in the early years.

“That youthful exuberance that Pat has has rubbed off on Coach and gave him some extra life,” said Mitchell Schwartz, a former Chiefs offensive lineman. “Because he didn’t have to be quite so regimented. He had this guy who was able to do what he wanted to do.”

Reid’s willingness to explore allowed Mahomes to tap into the full depth of his unique and often unconventional skills. When Mahomes was backing up Alex Smith in 2017, he ran the scout team. One day, Reid whistled and called over Brad Childress, then the team’s assistant head coach. Reid told Childress to pull out his play sheet and start marking plays: “Play 3, Play 5, Play 6, Play 8 … ”

Reid had just witnessed Mahomes throw at least four no-look passes, bewildering veteran linebacker Justin Houston and the rest of the first-team defense.

“Justin Houston’s reaction — it was unbelievable,” Childress said. “He looked in the flat. He looked at the quarterback. He looked where the ball got completed. He looked at Coach Reid. He looked back at the quarterback. He looked back at the flat. He’s like: ‘What just happened?’”

Reid kept his poker face. Just watch the film of those plays, he told Childress. But Childress had been around long enough to know: Reid was hiding a smile.

Patrick Mahomes confers with Andy Reid before Super Bowl LVIII in February. (Harry How / Getty Images)

When Schwartz played for the Chiefs from 2016 to 2020, the team held a walkthrough practice on Tuesday after they watched film. Players wore regular clothes. No cleats. Pretty casual vibe.

There was one unique feature: Every week, Reid wandered around with a little piece of paper scribbled with new plays even his assistant coaches hadn’t seen before. To players and coaches, Reid looked like a man weaving through a full-sized chess board, pulling receivers into new spots, moving a tight end a few yards this way, trying to visualize the geometry.

It wasn’t a solo process. Reid would hold a notecard up in the huddle, allowing players to, as Kemp said, “figure it out in their mind.” Then they would line up. Usually the play didn’t even have a name.

“He might go through seven or eight things and maybe four of them make the cut,” McCullough said.

The process felt so elemental — as if a play was being invented in real-time — that it demystified the process. Players were empowered to offer their own suggestions and tweaks. It was exactly what Reid wanted.

“That’s where Patrick started to feel comfortable enough to create those plays by himself,” Kemp said. “It was seeing the head man do it and work through it on the field. You didn’t have to have a perfect play that you had to bring to him.”

Under Reid, the Chiefs are famous for mining plays from anywhere: friends, rivals, college games, the 1948 Rose Bowl. Even from insane-seeming ideas during walkthroughs.

“I feel like Coach just kind of observes stuff Pat does during practice having fun and is like, ‘Hmm, that could be pretty cool,’” Schwartz said.

The most outside-the-box collaboration of the Reid-Mahomes era came on Jan. 7, 2023. That was the day the Chiefs ran “Arctic Circle” — otherwise known as the “Circle of Death” — a play that began with a spinning huddle and descended into pure anarchy.

Running back Jerick McKinnon lined up in the shotgun, ran a run-pass option, then flipped the ball to Mahomes, who stopped and threw the ball back across the field to receiver Kadarius Toney, who scampered into the end zone only for the touchdown to be wiped out by a holding penalty.

The plan was pure razzle-dazzle, but the spinning huddle was even weirder. The only people who weren’t fazed were the players on the field.

“We had seen it for pretty much for the entire year in different capacities,” Kemp said.

The play had been born at a series of Saturday walkthroughs, when the Chiefs would run through a list of Hail Marys and end-of-game trick plays. After running many of the same looks for four or five years, the staff started looking for ways to spice it up.

“That’s a time for Pat and the entire offense to get creative,” Kemp said. “It doesn’t really matter if it’s legal or not.”

At some point, someone wondered: What if we all started spinning in a circle before breaking the huddle?

What looked like chaos was actually a finely edited script: Reid took a weird idea and broke it down step by step, one of the hallmarks of his success. “He’ll poke out the details of it so he can teach it over and over and over again,” Kemp said. “He told everybody specifically what direction to turn and when to break and who was going to call it and where the receivers needed to end up and how they needed to do specific things. I think that’s why it worked out: details.”

After several Saturdays of tinkering and perfecting the circle-of-death concept, Reid signed off: Let’s put it in.

Of course, Mahomes has the kind of talent that makes any idea seem like a good one. “Pat is one of those dudes that is really good at a lot of things he does,” Kemp said, “so he’ll do something randomly and it will just click for him or a coach and they’ll find a way to incorporate it.”

When Mahomes took over as the starter in 2018, he started lobbying to throw a shovel pass underhand because he thought it would disguise the play better than a traditional shovel pass. When the timing didn’t work, Reid built a new formation over the course of two or three weeks so it would.

The play became a staple.

Around the same time, Mahomes started making center Austin Reiter practice snaps on the run. It began as another fun practice experiment, but soon enough the quarterback was asking assistant coach Tom Melvin if it was legal, and then he took it to the finishing lab — the special teams period — where he worked on plays with Kelce. All that was left was Reid, who installed a play called “Ferrari Right.”

“Coach Reid knows that fine line where he’s just crazy enough but just safe enough,” said Anthony Gordon, a former Chiefs quarterback.

“It was never a tense environment,” added Matt McGloin, another former quarterback. “It was always fun. It was always exciting. You were always learning, which was incredible. It was always a big collaborative effort.”

One day before the 2018 season, Mahomes and Reid ran through a play sheet for an upcoming preseason game. Mahomes had made one career start, against Denver the previous year, and Reid was in his 20th season as an NFL head coach. But when Mahomes said he didn’t like one of the plays in the game plan, Reid crossed it off.

“That’s the confidence that Andy had in his players,” McGloin said.

Six years later, the partnership thrives.

On the eve of last season’s AFC Championship Game in Baltimore, Mahomes sat in another meeting with Reid as the team’s offensive staff talked through end-of-game plays. If they needed to convert a third-and-long to win the game, Mahomes said he wanted a play that could beat man-to-man coverage and counter the Ravens’ pressure.

The next night, the Chiefs led the Ravens 17-10 with 2:19 left. It was third and 9. Mahomes walked over to the sideline.

“Give me the ball,” he said.

Reid knew the play Mahomes wanted. He handed the keys to Mahomes again.

The Chiefs lined up three receivers to the left, the Ravens showed Cover Zero, and Mahomes found receiver Marques Valdes-Scantling on a deep shot over the middle, sending Kansas City back to the Super Bowl.

(Illustration: Meech Robinson / The Athletic; photos: Ryan Kang / Getty Images; David Eulitt / Getty Images)