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NFL Quarterback Tiers 2024: Only 2 join Mahomes in Tier 1; Rodgers, Herbert drop out
The top tier is always exclusive territory when 50 NFL coaches and executives have their say in Quarterback Tiers each summer.
That exclusivity has reached another level this year.
Led by the incomparable Patrick Mahomes, only three players achieved Tier 1 status when balloting for the 11th annual survey was finished. That’s the lowest number since 2016, but with a crop of younger players rising, there’s a potentially bright future for the elite ranks.
The Baltimore Ravens’ Lamar Jackson reached new heights. The Green Bay Packers’ Jordan Love and the San Francisco 49ers’ Brock Purdy made massive jumps. The Houston Texans’ C.J. Stroud set a new standard for a second-year QB. You can see the largest risers and fallers in the graphic below.
The 2024 QB Tiers results are here, complete with commentary from the 50 NFL coaches and executives who were granted anonymity to share candid evaluations. The panel consisted of seven general managers, eight head coaches, 12 coordinators, 12 executives, eight assistant coaches and three involved in coaching/analytics.
Each voter placed 30 veteran quarterbacks into five tiers, from best (Tier 1) to worst (Tier 5). Quarterbacks were then ranked by average vote and placed into tiers based on vote distribution, beginning with Mahomes, whose 1.00 average vote reflected his status as the only unanimous Tier 1 selection. No QBs landed in Tier 5, although some received Tier 5 votes. The survey excludes rookies because voters have not seen them play in the NFL.
QB Tiers ranges
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Tier 1
A Tier 1 quarterback can carry his team each week. The team wins because of him. He expertly handles pure-passing situations. He has no real holes in his game.
Voters have placed Mahomes in the top tier on 249 of 250 ballots over the past five seasons, including all 150 over the past three.
“Is there a zero category (above Tier 1)?” a defensive coordinator asked.
What more is there to say about Mahomes?
“Last year, there was so much adversity with the drops, the Kadarius Toney issues, the lack of guys being able to uncover and separate,” an offensive coach said. “You knew as a competitor he was frustrated. But I watched him just battle and grind it out and not make excuses and dig in. I think he is an extremely tough human being. A lot of people could have been pissed and bitched. If that had happened, the whole thing could have unraveled.”
If Tom Brady remains the GOAT, Mahomes is closing that gap.
“I know people who were taking Philly or San Francisco in the Super Bowl,” a defensive coordinator said. “Dude, they are playing Mahomes. You take Mahomes. He’s like Brady when Brady was in his prime. You can’t bet against that dude because he’s the best in the business.”
An offensive coordinator had Mahomes as his only Tier 1 QB this year.
“The only player to win big with a bad defense,” this coordinator said.
The 2022 Chiefs won the Super Bowl while ranking 29th in combined EPA on defense and special teams. The 2019 and 2022 Chiefs had the worst combined postseason EPA on defense and special teams of any Super Bowl winners since at least 2000, per TruMedia.
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Ryan Kang / Getty Images
The 43 Tier 1 votes for Burrow are six fewer than he received last year after his latest injury, which required surgery on his throwing wrist, amplified durability concerns.
“You love everything about him, but at some point, physically, his body is going to fail,” a defensive coach who has faced Burrow multiple times said.
Burrow’s confidence is one of his most endearing qualities.
“He is a cool, calm, collected, confident version of Kirk Cousins,” another coach said. “He might have a little better arm strength, but the skill set is very similar, except Burrow is not an overthinker. He just has this confidence that he’s right, and he throws with that purpose and that confidence, and normally, he is right.”
Injuries cost Burrow six games as a rookie (knee) and seven last season (calf).
“He is definitely a 1,” a head coach said. “He is an accurate, touch passer with anticipation, but they gotta be careful. He is getting hurt on his throwing arm. You have injuries to your legs like he’s had, that will affect your arm. I’m curious to see how the ball comes off his hand this year.”
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Cooper Neill / Getty Images
Allen, like Burrow, landed in Tier 1 for a third consecutive year. He commanded five fewer Tier 1 votes this year compared to last but remained solidly within the top group.
“For me, Mahomes and Josh Allen are the two guys right now that people are the most afraid to play,” a head coach said. “They do not go in and say they are as afraid to go play Joe Burrow. Maybe that is just from a playmaking standpoint. I think Joe is great, but these two (Mahomes and Allen) put teams on their backs and win.”
The cost of Allen’s playmaking — 22 turnovers last season, second-most in the NFL behind Sam Howell — explains why 11 voters did not place him in Tier 1.
“The reason I put him as a 2, I’m wondering if people have caught up to him a little bit,” an offensive coach said. “If he can’t extend the down, it is hard for him to stay on schedule and protect the football. When you see guys throwing bad interceptions, why did they go there with the ball? Is it because they are not understanding what is in front of them?”
Most voters felt Allen handled pure-pass situations well enough to carry his team in critical moments, separating him from players in Tier 2.
“He can pass to win it, and he can just say, ‘Screw it, I’m going to scramble today because my passing sucks,’ and still win it,” another voter said.
Over the past three seasons, Allen leads the NFL in combined passing and rushing touchdowns with 128, 17 more than Mahomes at No. 2. His 59 turnovers rank second to Trevor Lawrence (60).
“If he does not turn the ball over, he is going to make plenty of plays to win the games,” another head coach said. “I think he is a top-three or top-four guy in the league.”
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Kathryn Riiley / Getty Images
Tier 2
A Tier 2 quarterback can carry his team sometimes but not as consistently. He can handle pure-passing situations in doses and/or possesses other dimensions that are special enough to elevate him above Tier 3. He has a hole or two in his game.
Jackson surged to the brink of Tier 1 with more top-tier votes this year (23) than he commanded over the previous three combined (20).
“He’s a fantastic dual-threat guy, he’s explosive, he’s dangerous,” an offensive coach said. “This past year, with (new Ravens offensive coordinator Todd) Monken, I thought he took a big step and became a passer. To me, it was so different from the previous years.”
The line between being a good passer and expertly handling pure-pass situations like Baltimore faced while trailing Kansas City in the playoffs is what kept Jackson a few votes away from joining Mahomes, Burrow and Allen in the top group.
For some, Jackson transcends the criteria.
“I just think putting an MVP of this league in Tier 2 is being on some quarterback high horse of what we think it’s supposed to look like,” a voter who placed Jackson in Tier 1 said.
Faring better in the playoffs, where he has a career 75.7 passer rating and a 2-4 record despite strong defensive support, might push Jackson over the top.
“He’s a 1 with limitations for me,” a defensive coordinator said. “You can win a lot of games with him. When you watched it against Kansas City, he can’t pass when he has to. That is still true. But he is still a wonderful football player.”
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Patrick Smith / Getty Images
Stafford’s 1.64 average and No. 5 ranking are both personal bests in 11 years of Tiers voting.
“When people put their top 10 quarterbacks together, he is always eight or nine, but he is better than anyone thinks,” a voter placing Stafford in Tier 1 said. “So consistent, so strong, reads defenses so well, can do anything with his arm talent. He is the reason that team is so good.”
Voters lauded Stafford’s ability to handle pure-pass situations.
“I do not want him to have the ball late,” a defensive coordinator said.
A reworked contract gives Stafford more money in 2024 while giving the Rams an easy out after the season, raising questions about his future.
“The guy delivers,” a GM said. “He handles pure pass probably as well as anybody. He won a Super Bowl. He consistently brings his team back. I have no problem with a 1 on him.”
Some fear Stafford could be winding down physically at 36. The Rams’ recommitment to the run game could help him play longer.
“He’s always been a great player,” a head coach said. “But to unlock the Super Bowl Matt Stafford, getting him with Sean (McVay) and putting him in a structure where they had a run game and had a defense was critical.”
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Rey Del Rio / Getty Images
Herbert fell from Tier 1 but remained the fifth-ranked quarterback for a third consecutive year. His 30-32 career record with no playoff wins seems to be working against him.
“Herbert might have the Matt Stafford career where they finally play defense and run the ball and he has more success as a player,” a head coach said. “He is super, super, super talented. I don’t even know if that is the right thing, to put him in an offense where they run the ball as much as they are about to run it, because he is so talented.”
The gap between Herbert’s obvious talent and his team’s on-field success is easily explained. Over the past three years, the Chargers rank 10th in offensive EPA, the part Herbert affects, while ranking 31st in combined EPA on defense and special teams, the part beyond his control, per TruMedia.
“I would put him below Aaron Rodgers, Matt Stafford and Patrick Mahomes as far as what I see in a quarterback who can do anything and everything, not just in a scheme,” a defensive coach said. “I think he is a gamer. He can throw, he can run. I just think they have asked him to throw the ball too much.”
That figures to change with Jim Harbaugh as the Chargers’ coach.
“Harbaugh will challenge the competitive level, and Herbert will respond to that,” another defensive coach said. “The culture is what is going to help Herbert elevate. Then we will be able to see some things in moments where, OK, can this guy really do that? Because I’ve played him before when he did not do it in those situations, and we were not that good.”
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Ryan Kang / Getty Images
Rodgers dropped into Tier 2 for the first time in 11 Tiers appearances after suffering a torn Achilles tendon last season.
Some thought this was ridiculous.
“Were the guys that did not put Rodgers in Tier 1 from the 29 teams whose offenses would be better with him instead of their current QBs?” one voter protested.
Only Mahomes, Burrow and Allen commanded more Tier 1 votes than the 23 for Rodgers. But with seven votes in Tier 3 and two in Tier 4, Rodgers slipped from the elite ranks.
“Maybe he falls off,” an offensive coach placing Rodgers in Tier 1 said. “I just know the last time I saw him play, he can carry it. I’m going off that.”
Not everyone thought Rodgers was playing so well when he finished in Green Bay.
“You go back and watch those first four plays before he got hurt, he did not look good,” a head coach placing Rodgers in Tier 3 said. “He looks old. If they can’t protect him and they can’t run the football, it’ll be just what you saw late stages in Green Bay. He became ineffective. I’m looking at what he is, not who he is.”
A voter whose team practiced against the Jets last summer said he thought Rodgers appeared “fragile” and might not last five games this season. The Achilles injury and Rodgers’ age (he turns 41 in December) created uncertainty.
No player in Tiers history has rated as high as Rodgers did this year while getting votes in Tier 4.
“The complaint in Green Bay was he did not have the receiver help he needed as he got older,” another voter said. “You cannot say that now with what they have around him on the Jets. If we get a Rodgers year where the Jets are back in playoffs and winning playoff games, that’s just what happens when you have a Tier 1 quarterback.”
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Ryan Kang / Getty Images
Stroud surpassed Herbert (who was No. 10 in 2021) for the highest Tiers debut coming off a rookie season.
“This guy is a freaking baller,” an offensive assistant said. “When we watch the style of play, there’s a lot of Joe Burrow when Joe is healthy. The dude has balls.”
Stroud’s 1.82 average vote was the same as Tom Brady’s coming off what became Brady’s final season.
“I think he’s special,” a head coach said of Stroud. “He can make plays on rhythm, he can read coverage, he can get through progressions, he can manipulate coverages. He can create off-schedule a lot better.”
Too much, too soon?
“I’m sure some people gave him a 1, but he’s gotta prove it,” another head coach said. “The Baltimore (playoff) game when he had to throw, he couldn’t do it. He needs to prove he can do it in a big game against really good defenses (to become a 1).”
Voters gave credit to the Texans’ offensive system under coordinator Bobby Slowik. Some called Houston’s personnel underrated. They generally did not hold those things against Stroud.
“I knew it right away,” one voter said. “I was watching him play at Baltimore in his first game ever. In the first 15 plays, I was like, ’OK, they got a quarterback.’ I saw him flicking his wrist, moving in the pocket. You could just see it.”
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Tim Warner / Getty Images
Prescott matched his career best for average vote (2.10) and ranking (ninth) while making a fifth consecutive appearance in Tier 2.
“Dak can roll out of bed and throw for 450,” an offensive play caller said. “It’s unbelievable. It’s just those moments in the playoffs against the Niners or Packers where, if you want to be Tier 1, one of these times you’re going to have to put that team on your back and will your team to a win.”
Prescott’s five career games with 450-plus yards are tied with Drew Brees for second-most in NFL history (including playoffs) behind Ben Roethlisberger’s eight. Dan Marino, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are next with four apiece. Of those quarterbacks, Prescott is the only one never to reach a conference championship game.
“I have always given Dak a 2,” a defensive coordinator said. “When I did it this year, I gave him a 3. He proves year in and year out that he cannot get it done (in the postseason).”
At the other extreme, an exec from one of the Cowboys’ division rivals placed Prescott in Tier 1.
“Without him, they would be a very average or marginal team,” this exec said.
This is the fifth consecutive year Prescott ranked between ninth and 12th.
“Dak is probably the definition of a 2,” another defensive coordinator said. “There are some holes, he’s not perfect, but he’s about as steady of a 2 as you can be.”
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Cooper Neill / Getty Images
It’s been a long road back for Goff, who reached Tier 2 for the first time since 2019, when he was coming off a Super Bowl with the Rams.
One defensive coordinator called Goff a better, younger version of Kirk Cousins: lacking in mobility, but proficient in identifying defenses before the snap, getting his team in the right plays, working through progressions and minimizing mistakes.
“It is set up so that it’s right in front of him, and he doesn’t have to make a lot of decisions on the field,” another defensive coordinator said. “They’ve got a good run game, they have a bunch of checkdowns to the tight end, they’ve got good players around him. He just has to go 1-2-3 and fire the ball. But he is another guy who, if it came down to a two-minute drive, I wouldn’t feel great about him in that situation.”
Goff’s 2.20 average and No. 10 ranking are both career bests in eight Tiers appearances.
“He got an offense he can run, and he’s getting rid of the ball,” a head coach said. “I don’t think he ever wins the big one, but he played well enough last year to go from a 3 to a 2. He has to have the weapons around him. He can’t do it by himself.”
One defensive coach pointed to Goff and Tua Tagovailoa as top-five picks who have produced at near-elite and borderline replacement levels at various points, based on what’s around them.
“Goff is somewhere between Tier 2 and Tier 3 for me,” an assistant GM said. “He has been really good, but I think he has a great system and good personnel. I’m not sure he carries the team. He is a traditional pocket guy that needs protection but makes all the throws. He lacks mobility, and I’m not sure he can carry the team exclusively.”
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Junfu Han / USA Today
Hurts slipped five spots after failing to sustain the momentum from his 2022 Super Bowl season.
“Hurts played so well the previous year, I am giving him a mulligan with some of the things they had going on offensively,” a coach who placed Hurts in Tier 2 said. “I do not think he was bad, necessarily.”
Some voters think Hurts will struggle to recapture the success he enjoyed when Shane Steichen was his offensive coordinator. One half-jokingly called him “a Tier 3 lock” without the tush push.
“If they can’t run the ball, Hurts is not effective,” a defensive coordinator said. “He can’t handle pure pass. When he got hurt and he became immobile and they had to throw the ball, he showed what he was. I think they might have paid a guy that they are going to have to have a really good team around to win games.”
The Eagles started 10-1 last season but finished 11-6.
“I still think he’s a 2,” another defensive coordinator said. “His makeup, unbelievable competitor. This is a dude who, Tua beats him out (in college at Alabama), he goes somewhere else (Oklahoma) and leads that team to (the College Football Playoff). He is going to come up short quarterback talent-wise in terms of accuracy and whatever, but all his other s— elevates him to a 2.”
While Saquon Barkley’s addition signaled an organizational commitment to the ground game, voters see new coordinator Kellen Moore as more pass-oriented in nature.
“The word is out there, if you run zero (blitz) against Hurts, or show zero and back everyone out, he will panic,” a defensive coach said. “That has to change. They lose Jason Kelce, who handled the protections, basically did everything, and you bring in a coordinator who likes to drop back. It will be interesting.”
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Kathryn Riiley / Getty Images
Purdy rose 13 spots from 2023, tying Jordan Love for the largest jump from last year. His 2.32 average vote is the best for a 49ers quarterback in Tiers history (Colin Kaepernick, 2.50 in 2014).
“When they have had to move the ball via dropback pass, that has been the difference between him and Jimmy (Garoppolo),” a head coach said. “Purdy has done it, and he’s done it in moments where he had to pull the ball down against Detroit and go get a first down with his legs. He has an innate feel. He has proven even when it’s not going well, he’s a quarter away from clicking in, and you’d better have a lead when he does.”
Rough games against Baltimore and Cleveland were exceptions.
“The system really helps, but he maximizes it,” a defensive coordinator said. “I’m not saying he is Kurt Warner, but he reminds me of that type of body. Not big, not a great arm, but he’s accurate, he knows when to get rid of the ball, he’s sharp, he’s a little bit better athlete than you think.”
Warner had even better talent around him while with the Rams.
“I honestly could debate calling Brock a 1,” an offensive play caller said. “He is really underrated. Kyle Shanahan deserves a ton of credit, but there still has to be somebody at the switch.”
The 16 voters placing Purdy in Tier 3 gave more credit to Shanahan and a strong supporting cast.
“I would slide him to the top of 3,” an assistant GM said. “I’m not sold that it is a universal skill set for varying systems. But for their system and their offense, they greatly capitalize on what his abilities are. That is a credit to the coaching staff.”
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Cooper Neill / Getty Images
Cousins’ steady climb continues with a career-best 2.38 average, the third consecutive season his average has improved.
“He has gotten way more courageous in the pocket,” a defensive coach said. “I have to give him that. He understands football, can throw the ball on time, can make all the throws. Can he carry the team and put them on his back by himself? I haven’t seen that. Maybe he is more like a Purdy type of guy.”
An offensive coach pushed back on the Purdy comp.
“Purdy has done it with a really good roster, and it’s really cool what he has done,” this coach said. “I’m not trying to take any credit from that kid, but Kirk has done it with different people. He has consistently kept his team in it over time. That is where I give him the edge.”
Cousins was arguably playing as well as ever before suffering a torn Achilles tendon and signing with the Falcons. Atlanta’s decision to draft Michael Penix Jr. in the first round raises questions about Cousins’ future.
“I think Cousins will not be the quarterback in Atlanta next year,” one voter said. “Unless Atlanta wins multiple games in the playoffs, the season is a failure for Kirk, unfortunately, based on the desire to see Michael Penix.”
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Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images
In 11 years of Tiers, only Mahomes, Jackson, Allen and Trevor Lawrence have made larger year-over-year gains than the 13-spot jump Love made this offseason.
“Of the guys I think that can ascend to 1, this is the guy that comes to mind,” a defensive coordinator said. “He’s got command of the offense, he can make every throw, he can make plays off-script, he can play on-script, he gets the ball out on time when everything is right and he is more athletic than you think. He’s got a playmaker’s mentality, and he started playing with a confidence that everybody can see.”
Love had started only one game before last season, making him a Tier 4 selection almost by default. The 19 starts he made last season, including two in the playoffs, impressed voters.
“He is a 2 going to a 1,” an offensive play caller said. “F—, he had a perfect goddamn passer rating in the playoff game (against Dallas). He can make all the throws, he’s composed. Very impressed.”
Love was the only player outside the top 11 to receive a Tier 1 vote.
“Just watching him, man, it’s hard to quantify into words,” said the lone voter who put Love in Tier 1. “I’m just going to tell you, watching him with my eyes, I’m like, holy s—, this guy is starting to figure it out in a big way.”
An assistant GM said there could be a rush to anoint Love based on the Packers’ history at the position, with Green Bay getting the benefit of the doubt in a “they’ve done it again” sense.
“Squeaking into the playoffs at 9-8 out of a bad division, I’m going to have to see a little more from him personally before elevating him,” a head coach who placed Love in Tier 3 said.
Another head coach warned against reading too much into Love’s impressive playoff showing against the Cowboys. This coach wants to see Love in more dropback situations.
“What makes me optimistic is how much better he got as the season progressed,” a former GM said. “They had a lot of rookies and young guys playing with him. He elevated the play of the guys around him.”
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Ryan Kang / Getty Images
Tier 3
A Tier 3 quarterback is a legitimate starter but needs a heavier running game and/or defensive component to win. A lower-volume dropback passing offense suits him best.
Tagovailoa’s stock has improved every year since his 2021 Tiers debut, putting him on the verge of Tier 2. But the gap between his new $53.1 million annual salary and his Tier 3 status is conspicuous.
“Miami has done an incredible job with Tua, giving him easy throws, giving him easy looks, catch-and-runs to 4.3 guys,” an offensive coach with AFC East experience said. “If you are sitting there in a pure-pass situation, if he has to sit there and read stuff and go through his progressions, I don’t have a lot of confidence in what that is going to look like.”
It didn’t look good against the Chiefs last season, but Tagovailoa’s production was sufficient for 24 voters to place him in Tier 2. That’s up from seven last year.
“I put him right in the middle of that Tier 2 stack,” a head coach said. “You have basically got a guy who is a perfect fit for Mike McDaniel. He is going to throw for 4,500 yards and a gazillion touchdowns, and statistically, it’s going to be hard to deny. But, kind of like with Kyle Shanahan’s quarterbacks, what are you going to do when it’s the (playoffs) against the Chiefs and it’s a two-minute drive and play-action and all that s— ain’t going to help you?”
Purdy passing Tagovailoa was notable in that both play in highly acclaimed schemes on teams with elite offensive weaponry.
“Tua does a great job anticipating,” another head coach said. “I don’t see him make it right when it’s not right. Purdy does. If there is a free hitter on the edge, Purdy can spin out, keep his eyes downfield. I don’t see Tua have that creativity or overall athleticism to do that.”
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Cooper Neill / Getty Images
Lawrence fell seven spots, the biggest drop for any player from 2023. The gap between his salary ranking (tied for first) and his Tiers ranking (15th) is the largest in that direction for any player in Tiers history.
Not everyone thinks Lawrence can bridge that gap.
“It’s a problem if ownership thinks you are a 1 or a 1.5, but really you are a 2 in a good year, and more of a 2.5, really,” one voter said.
Some voters drew parallels between Lawrence and Herbert as talented passers with understated personalities trying to overcome lesser organizations. Voters see both as players NFL teams would have no trouble selecting first in a draft. Is something missing?
“There is something that Burrow has, that Josh Allen has, that Mahomes has that borders on cocky, that I don’t feel with Herbert or Lawrence,” a defensive coach said. “I don’t know if it’s a confidence or a poise or a command. Maybe I’m misjudging that with just humility.”
Lawrence was trending positively entering last season. The Jaguars started 8-3 before injuries accumulated for Lawrence — first a shoulder, then a knee, then an ankle. Are voters reading too much into an easily explainable temporary dip?
“He’s mobile, strong-armed, good size, really talented,” an assistant GM said. “He has a couple holes in his game. I wonder if it was just one (down) year. I do like him, and if I had him, I’d be happy with him. Maybe he can trend to Tier 2.”
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Perry Knotts / Getty Images
The general feeling on Murray is that the Cardinals must play a specific way with him, and it remains to be seen whether that’s a good thing for Arizona after Murray returned from a torn ACL to make eight relatively understated starts last season.
“People would say, ‘Kyler Murray, Tier 2? How?’” a head coach placing Murray in Tier 2 said. “He goes in and beats the Eagles (35-31 in Week 17). This is a guy who once had a team (7-1). He does have limitations and/or a hole in his game that make it hard for him to be Tier 1 ever.”
Murray peaked in Tier 2 entering 2022, but his stock suffered after he signed a contract with a “homework” clause, and then was injured.
“His speed and elusiveness as an elite trait have waned a little, and if you make him play as a passer, he can’t do it,” an offensive coach said. “I don’t think he can see the windows, and I’m not sure he knows what he is looking at.”
Murray should have a better chance to change those perceptions as he returns to full health this season, with an offense that is not new to him and a potentially elite receiving talent in rookie first-round pick Marvin Harrison Jr.
“If you just grade the flashes, he can make crazy plays and have a game, but I don’t think you can win consistently with him,” a defensive coordinator said.
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Kathryn Riiley / Getty Images
This is the fourth consecutive year Watson has fallen in Tiers voting and the lowest he has ranked in seven career appearances.
“He’s a 3, and it’s just a bad fit,” an exec said. “You have an RPO quarterback in a play-action offense. Not a good mix.”
The offense figures to evolve under new coordinator Ken Dorsey.
“He’s a better pocket passer than given credit for, but he’s always been slow going through his progressions, because he knew if it broke down, people could not catch him,” a defensive coach said. “A lot of stuff he did (with Houston), there was designed RPOs and movement plays for him. Maybe the processing is a tick slow. I can’t explain it. It just feels like there is something missing.”
Watson has started 12 games in two seasons with the Browns after he sat out 2021 in Houston. He’s coming off surgery on his throwing shoulder, and his elevated sack rate (9.8 percent with Cleveland) could work against sustained health.
No matter how Watson plays, or how frequently he plays, the Browns owe him $138 million over the next three seasons.
“I wonder if he loves it enough,” an offensive coach said. “He should be way better than this.”
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Nick Cammett / Diamond Images / Getty Images
Only Love and Purdy improved more from last year in average vote.
“Baker had a great year,” an exec said. “It’s hard for me to say he is more than a 3, but if he does it again, he is there. … He needs to show some consistency with it.”
Mayfield’s 10 votes in Tier 2 were more than double the number for any quarterback ranked lower, signaling a dropoff within Tier 3 behind him.
“He can sling it,” a defensive coordinator said. “If he is coached well and he feels good, he is a good system quarterback. He can get rolling and make some plays. He doesn’t scare me. With some of those 2’s, you are like, ’Oh, s—, I have to do something to stop them.’ I don’t feel that with Baker. He’s a guy where we can play our stuff and be fine.”
Voters used the word “moxie” more when discussing Mayfield than when discussing any other quarterback. They also thought Mayfield did a better job than some at getting the ball to his best players, notably Mike Evans last season.
“Physically, not the most imposing, but the guy has moxie,” another exec said. “He has football instincts. He has a good feel. I do think he is tough. He can take a hit. And the bottom line, he has good production. Some of it is the intangible profile: instincts, leadership, moxie, feel, can keep plays alive with his feet and movement skills within the pocket. Despite his lack of height, he is able to navigate that and get the ball to his playmakers.”
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Carr’s No. 20 ranking ties for his worst in 10 Tiers appearances. His 3.00 average is his worst since 2015, when Carr was entering his second season and on the upswing.
“He’s a 3 without (Jon) Gruden,” an offensive coach said. “Gruden could carry the mantel of all the leadership, where Carr could just snuggle up under the umbrella of Gruden. He is exposed now. He is the umbrella. It’s not comfortable. That takes away from his production.”
Carr’s statistics from last season aligned with Mayfield’s. Both led teams that finished 9-8. But voters see Carr as a declining player lacking the intangibles they think are strengths for Mayfield.
“We talk like Baker is some revitalization story,” a head coach said. “No, Baker has taken two teams to division titles. Derek Carr was in that same NFC South division with a better defense.”
The Saints ranked ninth and the Buccaneers were 18th last season in EPA per play on defense, per TruMedia.
“What holds (Carr) back is a lack of toughness in the pocket, and some of his decision making within the scheme,” another exec said.
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Cooper Neill / Getty Images
Smith plateaued this year after surging into Tier 3 following his breakout 2022 season. That was enough to finish one spot ahead of Russell Wilson, the quarterback he replaced in Seattle.
“He was a consistent player for two years in a row as a starter, and he played good ball,” an offensive coordinator who placed Smith in Tier 2 said. “They didn’t win because of their run game. They didn’t win because of defense. They won because the pass game was pretty consistent.”
Over the past two seasons, Seattle ranked 12th in EPA per pass play on offense and fourth-worst in EPA per play on defense.
“There are two guys in the 3 category who can be a little different,” a defensive coach said. “Trevor Lawrence is one, and then Justin Fields can win the game because of his feet. Everybody else, not so much. I don’t feel I’m going to lose a game because of Geno Smith.”
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Ryan Kang / Getty Images
This is the fourth consecutive year Wilson has fallen in Tiers since he entered 2020 as a unanimous Tier 1 selection.
“I would not be surprised if he has success in Pittsburgh because of the culture and system,” an assistant GM said.
Wilson will play under a potential future Hall of Fame head coach for the third time after starting with Pete Carroll and bouncing from Sean Payton to Mike Tomlin.
“To me, he would be a 5 if he wasn’t with Tomlin,” an offensive coordinator said. “Tomlin is a psychologist. He can push the right buttons. However good Russell Wilson can be, Mike Tomlin will figure it out.”
Wilson’s slide this offseason was only about one-third as large as the slide he suffered in 2023.
“I didn’t think that would go well with Sean (Payton),” the head coach said. “I feel bad for all the scrutiny he has faced, some of which he brings on himself. I just don’t think he sees the field well. I see a guy that played a certain way and was able to do it at a high level for a certain period of time, and I just don’t think he has the athleticism to play that way.”
Another head coach said he thought Wilson remained good enough to “get you in and out of games” — the very definition of a veteran player straddling the line between Tiers 3 and 4. The Steelers have yet to decide whether Wilson or Justin Fields will start Week 1, amplifying concerns around Wilson.
“When you look at the stats in Denver, Russ did not play bad,” a defensive coordinator said. “He just wasn’t a good fit for Sean. Let’s see what he does this year. He can throw the deep ball — boy, can he throw the deep ball.”
Photo:
Joe Sargent / Getty Images
Tier 4
A Tier 4 quarterback could be an unproven player (not enough information for voters to classify) or a veteran who ideally would not start all 17 games.
Jones, 1-5 as a starter last season before suffering a torn ACL, lost about half the ground he gained among voters coming off his strong 2022 season.
“I’ve actually watched a lot of him,” a former head coach said. “I would give him a 3. He’s not bad. I don’t know how much he is going to run after knee and neck injuries, but it’s his ability to run that gives him some life. The throwing is just average.”
Another voter pointed to $23 million in injury guarantees for Jones in 2025 when suggesting the Giants could have incentive to play backup Drew Lock.
“The words ’Daniel Jones’ and ’injury guarantee’ are going to come up so much this year,” this voter said. “I don’t think the Giants are selling tickets around Daniel Jones. I do think Malik Nabers is going to be Offensive Rookie of the Year, at least among non-quarterbacks. Drew Lock is not a long-term starter, but I saw him do a really good job getting the ball to DK Metcalf, getting the ball to (Jaxon) Smith-Njigba.”
Would you rather have Jones on a $40 million annual salary or, say, Jacoby Brissett at one-fifth the cost? Those were the sorts of questions voters considered as Jones returns from a torn ACL in what could be a make-or-break season for him and for Giants leadership.
“You go out to the gun range, you shoot a gun, you feel real comfortable hitting the target,” a defensive coach said. “But when people are shooting back, he is not as accurate. When the s— gets moving and it’s live football, I think that is what gets him — missing throws, making more mistakes.”
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Peter Joneleit / Icon Sportswire / Getty Images
Fields is not consistent enough as a passer for voters to want him as their quarterback, but he’s dangerous enough as a runner for voters to fear facing him.
“Fields is hard to go against,” a defensive coordinator said. “He can win you games if you play complementary football and you’ve got the run game going, you’ve got play-actions, keepers. I kind of want to give him a 3, but he ain’t going to win you games dropping back.”
Voters agreed that the Bears were inconsistent in tailoring their offensive scheme to maximize what Fields does best.
“I can see people putting him as a 4, but if you have a good run game and he’s part of that run game, you can win,” an exec said. “I don’t want to play him because of the way he can run the football. He is a dimension that this league does not have. He is Jalen Hurts on nitroglycerin. Fast, strong, physical, tough. I would not give up on him.”
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Justin K. Aller / Getty Images
The massive gap between the 19th-ranked quarterback salary ($25 million per year for Seattle’s Smith) and the No. 20 salary ($12.5 million for Minshew) conveys how the league sees Minshew: as a veteran who ideally might not start all 17 games.
“Nobody wants him to be a starter, probably even his own team, but he won games with Indy last year,” an offensive coach said. “When you play him, the kid is competitive. He will keep you in the game — and them. It’s going to be a fight.”
Voters give Colts coach Shane Steichen a significant share of credit for the success Indy enjoyed with Minshew in the lineup last season.
“Gardner Minshew is a real gutsy player,” a defensive coordinator said. “Everybody on the team is going to love him. He is going to extend plays with his legs. He’s smart. He will be able to function in the offense. But he’s just limited.”
Minshew, 7-6 as a starter last season, prevailed over Aidan O’Connell in the battle to start for the Raiders. He has never started more than 13 games in a season.
“I want to see what it looks like when he plays all 17,” a head coach said.
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Chris Unger / Zuffa LLC / Getty Images
Voters who saw Richardson in person last season marveled at his talent.
“Everybody is scared to death of him in the NFL,” a head coach said.
“He’s the closest thing to Cam Newton since Cam, being a man that big who can run the ball and rip it,” an offensive coach said.
“Watching this dude in pregame from the 50 just arc and pace it, I said, ‘This guy can be a problem if it all comes together, because he has the athleticism,’” another offensive coach said.
“You are hard-pressed to tell me, if he keeps developing and stays healthy, that he is not going to be bottom of Tier 2 next year,” another head coach said.
Health is one key variable. Richardson’s ability to develop into a more consistently accurate passer is another.
“Shane Steichen built an offense with some really unique stuff, and we saw glimpses, but Richardson kept getting hurt,” a coach said. “I don’t know what changes this year. I don’t see a path for them to have a successful offense with this quarterback without putting him at continued risk for injury.”
That will be the Colts’ challenge.
“Richardson is erratic in the pocket and all that, but he is a big, big man who can make things happen,” a defensive coach said. “He’s a 3 that can elevate for sure. Shane understands how to space things out for him to make the targets easier and how to get him involved in the run game.”
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Todd Rosenberg / Getty Images
Voters see Levis as a strong-armed prospect with questionable instincts for the position.
“I do think there was good tape on him last year,” an exec said. “He showed confidence, he had a nice energy about him on the field, he had a toughness about him. He looked like he can be a guy. He can get wound up a little tight, so I want to see how he handles the stress of expectations.”
Levis started nine games last season and took 28 sacks behind a weak offensive line.
“It’s hard to judge him on last year because their line was so bad,” a defensive coordinator said. “I’ll give him a 4, but if I’m being honest, I think next year is maybe a 3 and that’s it. I don’t see the upside.”
The Titans selected Levis 33rd in the 2023 draft, making him the fourth quarterback in his class.
“He makes some impressive throws,” an offensive coordinator said. “I always wonder if he sees it and can react fast enough. Is his processing ability going to always be a little slow? That’s all, just some awareness. I don’t know if he knows when he’s hot and there are blitzers, that sort of thing.”
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Cooper Neill / Getty Images
Young is the seventh first-round quarterback to debut in Tiers after starting at least 14 games as a rookie. His average tier vote (3.82) was the lowest of the seven behind Stroud (1.82), Herbert (2.14), Murray (2.68), Carson Wentz (2.92), Mac Jones (3.06) and Lawrence (3.40).
“I don’t know of a human being that has been put in a worse situation as a quarterback ever, so I’m just giving him a little benefit of the doubt,” an offensive coach said.
Nine voters did place Young in Tier 3, but Tier 4 proved to be a catch-all category for him most of the time, either because voters did not have enough information to make an evaluation, or because what voters saw gave them pause.
“They threw him to the wolves,” a head coach said.
Young’s small stature was the No. 1 concern.
“From an intelligence standpoint, from an arm strength standpoint, I think he can do all those things,” a defensive coordinator said, “but I think the size is a major detriment. He still has escapability, but he is a smaller-framed guy who will struggle in the pocket and, at some point, the guy is going to get hurt.”
How would Stroud have fared in Carolina if the first and second picks in the 2023 draft had been reversed?
“If you give (Young) a 4, it’s partly because that place was so messed up,” another voter said. “But I think Frank Reich is a good offensive coach. Is Dave Canales really going to be this revolutionary change on offense? He was good with Baker, I get it, but it wouldn’t surprise me if we have this conversation two years from now and Bryce Young is a 3.”
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David Jensen / Icon Sportswire / Getty Images
One season with Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco gave Darnold a slight boost with some voters. He commanded 12 votes in Tier 3, twice as many as in 2022, his most recent Tiers appearance.
“He played before he was ready in New York, and then Carolina was a rough deal,” a head coach said. “He got himself back on course with the 49ers. That was healthy for him.”
The competition between Darnold and J.J. McCarthy ended abruptly in the preseason after McCarthy’s season-ending knee injury.
“I don’t want to be one of those guys who holds onto his draft grade, but I would not be surprised if he holds off J.J. McCarthy for a while,” the head coach said before McCarthy’s injury. “(Darnold) has the ability to play to a 2.”
All would agree that the infrastructure in Minnesota is better for Darnold than the situations with the Jets and Panthers were for him.
“Sometimes I think he’s a 3 in the right situation,” an exec said. “It would not surprise me if he has a decent year with Kevin (O’Connell). I’m teetering between 3 and 5. I’ll go out on a limb and say he’s a 3 this year.”
Darnold got as many votes in Tier 5 as he got in Tier 3, so it’s a stretch to say these optimistic takes were representative of the group. He has never started more than 13 games in a season.
“He has been with multiple teams, and we are still waiting for the guy,” a defensive coordinator said. “He’s just jittery, man.”
Photo:
Stephen Maturen / Getty Images
When Brissett was in Cleveland (2022), the Browns averaged more EPA per play and per pass play in his 11 starts than they have averaged with any other quarterback in the lineup since Kevin Stefanski became coach in 2020.
Of course, the 2024 Patriots are not as talented as the Browns.
“Jacoby is a 3.5 who can win some games for you in the right system,” a head coach said. “He is one of the few backup quarterbacks that could start in this league. It worked in Cleveland because he’s a play-action thrower and that system fits him.”
Brissett’s coordinator in Cleveland, Alex Van Pelt, is his coordinator in New England.
“He’s a solid 4, a great backup buffer guy until you get your starter ready,” a defensive coordinator said.
A former GM predicted rookie Drake Maye would be in the lineup for the Patriots around Week 5 or 6.
Photo:
Jaiden Tripi / Getty Images
About this story: Edited by David DeChant. Development by Marc Mazzoni. Design by Dan Goldfarb and John Bradford. Design direction by Skye Gould, Ray Orr and Amy Cavenaile. Photos by Getty Images and USA Today.
The story of the greatest players in NFL history. In 100 riveting profiles, top football writers justify their selections and uncover the history of the NFL in the process.
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Culture
The Bears need a coach who holds players accountable. Look no further than Ron Rivera
In 1982, George Halas reached into Chicago Bears history to find a head coach and hired Mike Ditka.
In 2025, the team Halas founded needs to consider its history again.
There are candidates with no ties to the Bears who deserve consideration.
Foremost among them is Mike Vrabel, who never should have been fired by the Tennessee Titans and can win Super Bowls — plural — in the right situation. If Ben Johnson of the Detroit Lions is as dazzling as a head coach as he is as an offensive coordinator, he will transform an organization. His defensive counterpart in Detroit, Aaron Glenn, seems to have leadership and coaching qualities that few have. Steve Spagnuolo’s long history of building defenses and relationships may be evidence he could thrive with a second chance. The way Joe Brady has easily lifted the Buffalo Bills offense suggests he can handle more plates on the bar.
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And there are others. Maybe in the final analysis, one of them is best suited for the job.
However, only one person has had a football role on both Bears Super Bowl teams. Ron Rivera was a linebacker on the 1985 champions. On the 2006 Bears that lost to the Indianapolis Colts, he was their defensive coordinator.
Now he should be first in line to interview.
Rivera’s 2006 defense allowed the third-fewest points in the NFL. Without justification, he was fired after that season, and the Bears took a cold plunge. In the 19 seasons since, they have made the playoffs three times and have a .439 winning percentage.
Drafted by Jim Finks, built up by Ditka and mentored by Mike Singletary, Rivera, more than any potential candidate, comprehends what it means to be a Bear. He knows where Chicago’s potholes are. He understands the organizational strengths and limitations, the fan base and the local media.
There is no doubt Halas would have endorsed interviewing Rivera. Same for Walter Payton, who sat across from Rivera on plane rides to and from games.
Ditka was not the only former Bears player to become their coach. In their first 54 years, every one of their coaches except Ralph Jones was a former player for the team. Halas himself played for the Bears. The other Bears players who became the franchise’s head coach were Luke Johnsos, Hunk Anderson, Paddy Driscoll, Jim Dooley and Abe Gibron.
The Bears have been criticized — justifiably — for not considering former Bear Jim Harbaugh as a head coaching candidate. Ignoring Rivera would be making a similar mistake.
History is not the only reason Rivera should be considered. Like Harbaugh, Rivera is a proven coaching commodity. His coaching journey began humbly as a quality control coach for his Bears in 1997. Two years later, he went to work for Andy Reid in Philadelphia as a linebackers coach before returning to Chicago to coordinate the defense in 2004.
When he was head coach of the Carolina Panthers, Rivera’s teams made it to the playoffs four times and the Super Bowl once. He was voted coach of the year twice, which makes him one of 13 to be honored more than once. Seven of the 13 are in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, with Halas and Ditka among them.
After new Panthers owner David Tepper fired him in 2019, Rivera was unemployed for less than a month when he agreed to lead Dan Snyder’s Washington Redskins, who became the Football Team and then the Commanders in Rivera’s tumultuous tenure as their coach. And he wasn’t just their coach. He was their de facto general manager. Then he became Snyder’s frontman/shield when workplace culture transgressions and financial improprieties came to light and Snyder went underground.
Rivera arguably was the most sought-after coach in the 2020 cycle. The four regrettable years he spent with Snyder, arguably the worst owner in the NFL’s history, changed perceptions. Rivera was not the first to have his reputation diminished by the association.
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In his tenure with Washington before Snyder, the great Joe Gibbs won 67 percent of his games and three Super Bowls. After retiring and returning with Snyder as owner, he went 30-34. As a college coach, Steve Spurrier won 71 percent of his games and a national championship. With Snyder, he won 37 percent of his games. Mike Shanahan, who should be on his way to the Pro Football Hall of Fame, had a .598 career winning percentage and two Super Bowl rings as a head coach before partnering with Snyder. In Washington, his winning percentage was .375.
Rivera’s winning percentage before Snyder was .546, one percentage point better than Vrabel’s. In Washington, it was .396.
Some will question if a defensive-minded coach like Rivera is right for the Bears because of the presence of quarterback Caleb Williams, as if a coach without an offensive background should be disqualified. Hiring a head coach with one player in mind when 53 need to be led is an absurdity.
Tom Landry, Chuck Noll, John Madden, Don Shula, George Allen, Bill Parcells, Marv Levy, Dick Vermeil, Tony Dungy, Bill Cowher and Jimmy Johnson have busts in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Almost assuredly on their way to Canton are Bill Belichick, John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin. None of them had offensive backgrounds before becoming head coaches.
In 2011, when Rivera was hired in Carolina, there were similar concerns about his ability to handle an offense. With the first pick in the draft, the team chose a quarterback, Cam Newton. Rivera sent offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski, quarterbacks coach Mike Shula and offensive quality control coach Scott Turner to Auburn to meet with the school’s offensive coordinator, Gus Malzahn, and try to understand what Malzahn did with Newton in helping him win a national championship and Heisman Trophy.
Panthers coaches implemented concepts Newton succeeded with at Auburn, including RPO plays that weren’t widely used at the time. Newton was named offensive rookie of the year. Four years later, Newton was voted the NFL’s most valuable player — while playing for a defensive-minded coach.
Rivera connects with players. He earns respect with authenticity, class and toughness. And apparently, these Bears need a coach who will hold players accountable.
The year after Newton was the league’s MVP, Rivera benched him because he refused to follow a team rule requiring players to wear ties on the plane. When Newton showed up tieless, Rivera tried to give him a tie to wear. Newton said it didn’t match his outfit. Rivera told him there would be repercussions, and Newton subsequently was held out the first series of a game. Newton later apologized to the team.
Rivera, who learned about aggressive strategies from Buddy Ryan and his Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Johnson, never has been afraid to take a chance. Before they called the head coach of the Lions Dan “Gamble,” they called Rivera “Riverboat Ron.”
In his first training camp in Washington, Rivera was diagnosed with squamous cell cancer in a lymph node. That season, he had 35 proton therapy treatments and three chemotherapy treatments. Rivera lost 25 pounds and grew so weak he had to be brought into the office with one arm around his wife’s shoulder and one around the team trainer’s. He never stopped coaching and leading, though, and his team rallied, winning five of its last seven games to make the playoffs.
Rivera eventually rang the bell and is cancer-free. For his perseverance, the Pro Football Writers of America voted him the recipient of the George Halas Award, which is given for overcoming adversity.
The significance of Rivera winning the award named after the founder of the Bears should not be lost on those entrusted with maintaining the Halas legacy.
(Top photo: Scott Taetsch / Getty Images)
Culture
‘A long road. A big mountain to climb’: Inside Matt Murray’s emotional journey back to the NHL
BUFFALO, N.Y. — Matt Murray looked up to the scoreboard above him, counted down the seconds as they disappeared and finally pumped his fist.
It had been 638 days since Murray last felt the feeling washing over him.
Bilateral hip surgery forced the Toronto Maple Leafs goalie out of the entire 2023-24 season, the final of a four-year contract. There was no guarantee the oft-injured Murray would play in the NHL again. A one-year contract offered him a lifeline to continue grinding far out of the spotlight in the AHL, with only one goal.
And over a year and a half later, Murray was back to where he had fought to be: in the NHL win column after stopping 24 shots in a 6-3 win over the Buffalo Sabres.
“A long road. A big mountain to climb. But I kept this moment in the front of my mind on the days it felt tough,” Murray said.
The 30-year-old’s eyes grew more red with every word he spoke after the game. His voice quivered.
“A big release,” he said, struggling to find the words to put nearly two years away from the NHL into perspective. “A rush of emotions.”
The typical goalie hugs with teammates after the win were tighter, longer. In a physical game where a player’s career can turn on a dime, Murray’s return resonated far more heavily than the 2 points the Leafs also added on the day.
“It’s good to see (Murray) smiling,” Steven Lorentz said, “because you know he’s back doing what he loves.”
In the dressing room, Max Domi immediately handed Murray the team’s WWE-style wrestling belt as player of the game. Murray’s up-and-down performance was secondary.
“He was getting that thing, 100 percent, he deserved it,” Domi said. “The ability to stick with it mentally, out of all those days that I’m sure he had a lot of doubt, it’s a long road to recovery. We’re all super proud of him.”
It’s easy to quantify just how long Murray’s road back to the NHL was in days: 628 of them between his last two appearances.
It’s far more difficult to accurately describe just how arduous that road is.
Injuries have dogged Murray throughout his career after winning back-to-back Stanley Cup titles in his first two seasons in the NHL with the Pittsburgh Penguins. His games played tapered off every season from 2018 to 2022. After he was traded to the Leafs in summer 2022, he struggled through his first season. It was fair to wonder whether hip surgery would be the final dagger in his NHL career.
But Murray would still hang around teammates at the Leafs’ practice facility during his rehabilitation last season, feeling so close but so far away from the league he once conquered.
“The fact that he’s just on his way back here says a lot about his character, his dedication to the game,” Lorentz said.
Murray kept a stall full of his gear at that facility that was never used. An important and humane gesture from the Leafs organization, but still a reminder that Murray was not playing NHL games.
Even after re-signing with the Leafs on a one-year, $875,000 deal, he felt like the organization’s No. 4 goalie. When the Leafs needed a netminder to replace the injured Anthony Stolarz, they called up Dennis Hildeby. The lanky Hildeby is seven years’ Murray’s junior.
How could Murray not wonder whether his NHL return would ever come?
“There were definitely times when it felt really difficult,” Murray said. “But whenever I felt like that, I had a great group of people around me. That’s the only reason why I’m here.”
All Murray could do was work his tail off, far away from public sight, quietly hoping for the return that finally came Friday night.
“The emotions were high today,” Murray said.
Those emotions perhaps ran highest before the game. The typically stoic Murray allowed himself to stop and appreciate how far he’s come.
“I was able to take a moment in warmups and during the anthem and look around and appreciate the long journey that it’s been and think of all the people who helped me get here,” Murray said.
It was the kind of game that reminded onlookers of the fragility of an NHL career. Just a few short years separated Murray from being a Stanley Cup winner to being largely written off from the NHL, all essentially before the age of 30.
“You feel for a guy like that because he works so hard and he wants it so bad,” Lorentz said. “We’re all rooting for him.”
Murray moved well enough in his return. He swallowed most of the 27 shots the Sabres threw at him, looking every bit the veteran he is. Murray had two goals against called back upon video review. His sprawling save on Sabres forward Alex Tuch was a reminder of the athleticism he can provide now that he’s fully healthy, too.
They’re all qualities Leafs fans might have forgotten. But they’re qualities that are still front of mind for Murray’s Leafs teammates.
“It hasn’t been forgotten in my mind what he’s accomplished in this league in his career,” Leafs forward Max Pacioretty said, himself no stranger to debilitating injuries that threaten a career. “It’s hard to almost remember what you’ve done, what you’ve accomplished because it seems like all the noise is always in the moment, whether it’s the injury or what has happened lately.”
Perhaps the Leafs win could have been predicted ahead of time. Sure, they were playing a reeling Sabres team that has now sputtered through 12 losses in a row. And they were buoyed by an upstart, white-hot line of Max Domi, Bobby McMann and Nick Robertson. They’re the third line in name only: The trio combined for three goals and 6 points against the Sabres.
But the opponent shouldn’t denigrate what was front of mind not just for Murray but also for the Leafs in Buffalo. They wanted to do right by a player who has done everything in his power to return to the NHL. You didn’t have to squint to see a defenceman like Jake McCabe throwing Sabres out of Murray’s crease with a little extra gusto.
“It gives you some incentive to go the extra mile because you know (Murray) has gone that extra mile just to get back to this position to where he’s at right,” Lorentz said. “It’s not like he half-assed it to get back to this point and he expected to be here. Surgeries and injuries like that, that he went through, that can stunt your career for a long time. You might never be able to recover to your old form.”
But Murray is working on getting back to the Matt Murray of old. And the Leafs’ need for Murray won’t end when they head north on the QEW back to Toronto.
The earliest Stolarz will likely return from a knee injury will be mid-to-late January. Hildeby doesn’t exactly have the full confidence of the Leafs organization right now after allowing a few soft goals during a recent call-up against the Sabres at home, combined with a less-than-stellar AHL season so far. He’s likely going to be an NHL player down the road, but there’s room for him to grow and develop more confidence in his game.
But Murray has what no other goalie in the Leafs organization has: experience. And that matters to Brad Treliving and Craig Berube: Both value games played and would rather lean on veterans whenever possible.
They’ll lean on Murray because of everything he’s done, and gone through, in his career.
After Friday night, that career looks drastically different.
“In reality, you’ve got to take each day as it comes and you never know when it’s going to be all over,” Pacioretty said. “So you don’t want to take days for granted.”
After Murray had dried his eyes and slowly taken off the pounds of goalie gear heavy with sweat, he sat on his own in the dressing room. The Leafs equipment staff all stopped unloading bags from the dressing room to give him a quiet pat on the back.
Murray looked up to see a note written on a whiteboard in the dressing room. The Leafs bus would be leaving in 20 minutes. There was another NHL game on the horizon.
He could smile once again knowing it certainly won’t be 628 days between being able to do what he loved.
(Top photo: Timothy T. Ludwig / Imagn Images)
Culture
How Merseyside became America’s 51st state
Beyond the dust of Liverpool’s dock road and the huge lorries rolling in and out of the city’s port, the glass panels of Everton’s new home at the Bramley-Moore Dock sparkle impressively, radiating ambition.
The site, expected to open next year, is a feat of engineering considering the narrow dimensions of the fresh land below it, where old waters have been drained to create a 52,888-capacity arena that has been earmarked to host matches at the 2028 European Championship.
The Everton Stadium, as it is currently known, has been nearly 30 years in the making and nothing about its construction has been straightforward. There were three other proposed sites — including one outside Liverpool’s city boundaries, in Kirkby — which never materialised; a sponsorship deal collapsing due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; three owners, Peter Johnson, Bill Kenwright and Farhad Moshiri, departing; and several flirtations with relegation.
Ultimately, Dan Friedkin, a Texan-based billionaire, will have the honour of being in post when it is inaugurated after his group’s long-awaited takeover was completed on Thursday.
It has been a momentous week for Everton, and for the region as a whole. The Friedkin Group’s takeover means both of Merseyside’s Premier League clubs are now controlled by Americans. Meanwhile, a third, League Two side Tranmere Rovers, could join them if the English Football League (EFL) ratifies a takeover by a consortium led by Donald Trump’s former lawyer Joe Tacopina.
In football terms, Liverpool is on the verge of becoming the USA’s 51st state — the name of the 2001 movie starring Samuel L Jackson and Robert Carlyle, which was filmed in the city and used Anfield, the home of Liverpool FC, as a backdrop.
It is a huge cultural shift from the days — back when that film was released — when Liverpool and Everton had local owners and an American takeover of the city’s most celebrated sporting organisations seemed unthinkable.
And for all the excitement that Everton and Tranmere’s takeovers have generated, there remains an underlying caution — born of years of fear and frustration over the direction their clubs have taken — over what U.S. ownership will mean.
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Everton is a club of contrasts.
Much of their mainly local support comes from some of the United Kingdom’s most economically challenged districts in the north end of Liverpool, near Walton where Goodison Park is located, and the ‘People’s Club’ — as former manager David Moyes christened them — has long taken pride in not being connected to big business, particularly in comparison to their near-neighbours Liverpool.
“One Evertonian is worth twenty Liverpudlians,” said former local captain Brian Labone, who led the team he supported as a boy in the 1960s.
Yet it hasn’t always been this way. At that time, it was Everton — not Liverpool — who were the city’s big spenders under their chairman John Moores, the founder of Littlewoods Pools. Then, their nickname was the ‘Mersey Millionaires’ and the club’s modus operandi was unapologetically ruthless: one manager, Johnny Carey, was sacked in the back of a taxi.
Moores would detail several innovations that would grow the sport, making it more attractive to business. They included the creation of a European Super League (sound familiar?), the rise of television, as well as the removal of the maximum wage, leaving a free market in which the best players would go to the richest clubs.
When Liverpool started to dominate English football and Goodison Park experienced a dip in gates, Moores tried to raise more cash. One of his solutions was to bring corporate hospitality to Goodison, as well as more advertising boards around the pitch but the move experienced pushback.
“Fans didn’t like it,” says Gavin Buckland, who recently published a book entitled The End, which looks at some of the longer-term causes of Everton’s struggles. “They felt the boards intruded on their match day routine — an in-your-face commercialism.”
Attitudes haven’t changed much since, in part because successive Everton owners haven’t been able to expand Goodison which is hemmed into Walton’s warren of terraced streets. Under Kenwright, Everton played on that reputation of the plucky underdog punching above its weight; it was only when Moshiri, a Monaco-based British-Iranian steel magnate, arrived as co-owner in 2016 that the waters were muddied.
Under Moshiri, Everton became two clubs in one. Like Kenwright, Moshiri operated from London but unlike the theatre impresario, he had no natural connection with Merseyside. While Moshiri aimed for the stars, spending big on players and managers, Kenwright — who remained chairman and still had influence until his death last year — had a more corner-shop mentality. There was a lack of clarity over decision-making.
Enter Friedkin. Perversely, Everton’s fallen state is a major reason they represent such an attractive proposition to the San Diego-born businessman, who identified them as one of, if not the last, purchasable English football club where there is room for significant growth.
On Merseyside, there is some concern about what this might mean: Americans have tended to develop dubious reputations as owners of English football clubs due to their appetite for driving non-football revenues and seeing their investments as content providers.
Will the new stadium, for example, become a shopping mall experience, complete with hiked-up ticket prices? Buckland speaks of a “cliff edge”, where Everton are moving into a new home, necessitating new routines for matchgoing fans, while a new foreign owner with a reputation for keeping his distance gets his feet under the table. For some, all of this at once might be too much.
Given that Friedkin cannot claim to have played a leading role in the stadium move, he is likely to be judged quickly on the team that he delivers. Any new revenue-driving schemes will only float if fortunes improve on the pitch, otherwise his priorities will be questioned.
For proof, simply look across Stanley Park. In 2016, thousands of Liverpool fans walked out of Anfield in the 77th minute of a Premier League game against Sunderland after FSG announced that some ticket prices in the stadium’s new Main Stand would be priced at £77.
Liverpool had won just one trophy in six years of FSG ownership at that point and local fans, especially, felt like their loyalty was being exploited, given the organisation’s policy of investing its own money in infrastructure but not the team. The protest led to an embarrassing climbdown.
Liverpool was once described by the Guardian newspaper as the “Bermuda Triangle of capitalism”. It has since been framed absolutely as a left-wing city even though voting patterns suggest it should be described as a dissenting one. Its football supporters, whether blue or red, tend to confront perceived injustices, especially if it involves outsiders making money at the expense of locals, and even more so if they are not delivering on the pitch.
FSG were only able to buy Liverpool at a knockdown price, which its former American owner Tom Hicks described as an “epic swindle”, due to the response of the supporters who unionised themselves in an attempt to drive both Hicks and his partner George Gillett out following a series of broken promises, as the club veered dangerously towards deep financial problems from 2008.
“The missteps of Hicks and Gillett put power in the hands of the fans,” reminds Gareth Roberts from Spirit of Shankly, the fans group which is still active 16 years after its formation and which now has members on the club’s official supporters board. The latter became enshrined in Liverpool’s articles of association after FSG apologised for its leading role in the attempt to create a European Super League in 2021.
This came after several other high-profile PR blunders that eroded trust. It remains to be seen whether figures like John W. Henry, FSG and Liverpool’s principle owner, will listen to the board rather than pay lip service and carry on regardless with his own plans. Roberts says the ongoing challenge is “getting them to understand the culture”, and it does not help the relationship when Henry’s business partner, Tom Werner (Liverpool’s chairman), speaks so enthusiastically about taking Premier League fixtures away from Anfield and potentially hosting them in other parts of the world.
There was a time when either Everton or Liverpool’s local owner not showing at a match would dominate conversations in pubs and get reported in the local paper. Now, that only happens if they actually turn up.
Leading FSG figures usually fly in from Boston, Massachusetts, attending a couple of games a season — Werner was at Liverpool’s recent game against Real Madrid, while Henry was in the stands for the first home game of the season against Brentford. They appoint executives and dispatch them to Merseyside, or London, where the club has long had an office, to run the business on their behalf. Such individuals are under pressure to drive revenues as far as they can, in theory improving the economic possibilities of the team.
Roberts says ticketing is an especially thorny issue at Liverpool due to the popularity of the club. It feels like locals are under attack: that there is a race to get the richest person’s bum onto a seat.
As far as Roberts is concerned, a club that markets its image from the energy that Anfield occasionally creates is treading on dangerous ground. “The Kop still has power,” he insists. “But if you squeeze the fans and they drop off, there is a risk that the place gets filled with spectators rather than supporters and with that, you kill the golden goose.”
This, he adds, should act as a warning to Evertonians as they embark on their own American adventure.
Like Roberts, Liverpool metro mayor Steve Rotheram is a season ticket holder at Anfield and he understands such anxieties. In October, he spent a fortnight in North America exploring trade opportunities and the experience made him realise how powerful a brand Liverpool has abroad due to its connections with football and music, as well as its central role as a port in the movement of the Irish diaspora that spread across the Atlantic in the 19th century.
He says such history helps start conversations with American businesses from sectors like bioscience and digital innovation, which are now interested in investing in Merseyside due to the availability of land near the waterfront on both sides of the Mersey river, a hangover from the harsh economic measures of the 1980s and the decline that followed.
Rotheram says football, especially, plays a significant role in the visitor economy to the region, which in 2018 was worth £6.2billion. A thriving Everton playing at a stadium that does a lot more than host football matches every fortnight has the potential to add to that pot. The site at Bramley-Moore promises to regenerate the area around it and, currently, there are small signs of that change. Now Everton’s immediate financial concerns have gone away, perhaps businesses hoping to move in can proceed with more confidence.
GO DEEPER
How Liverpool 2.01 was built – and FSG abandoned any plans to sell
To reach the third professional football club on Merseyside attracting American investment, you have to cross the river.
If Rotheram gets his way, a walkable bridge will connect Liverpool to Wirral, the home of Tranmere Rovers, and potentially boost the peninsula’s economy. But for the time being, there are just two transport options: a tunnel under the Mersey or, more pleasurably, a ferry which takes less than seven minutes to sail from the Pier Head, beneath the famous Liver Buildings, to Seacombe.
In the middle of this journey, as the ferry juts north, there is a different view of Everton’s new stadium, positioned between a scrapyard and a wind farm, both of which are in the shadow of a brooding tobacco warehouse that is the biggest brick building in the world. Everton’s new home is much closer to the city and might seem enormous from the land, glistening from whichever angle you look at it, but it does not dominate the skyline from the brown, scudding channels of the Mersey.
When the novelist Nathaniel Hawthorne sailed across the same stretch of water in 1854, he recalled a scene that he thought neatly captured the personality of the Liverpudlians he’d encountered over the previous six months, having been sent to the city as American consul.
There, on the ferry, was a labourer eating oysters using a jack knife taken from his pocket, tossing shell after shell overboard. Once satisfied, the labourer pulled out a clay pipe and started puffing away contentedly.
According to Hawthorne, the labourer’s “perfect coolness and independence” was mirrored by some of the other passengers. “Here,” Hawthorne wrote, “a man does not seem to consider what other people will think of his conduct but whether it suits his convenience to do so.”
Hawthorne did not specify whether the labourer was from Liverpool or the piece of land to the west now known as Wirral. To any outsider, the places and their residents tend to be viewed as one of the same.
On Merseyside, however, distinctions are made: Liverpudlians tend to identify themselves as tougher and sharper, while those from “over the water”, tend to have softer accents and are once removed from the struggles of the city.
In truth, both areas suffered in the late 1970s and 80s when unemployment ripped through its docks and shipyards. Whereas Liverpool’s city centre has been transformed in the decades since, the Wirral’s waterfront feels less promising. Whereas Liverpool has the Albert Dock, museums and a business district punctuated by glassy high rises, Wirral has very few distinguishable features from the river beyond its scaly, grey sea wall.
Three miles or so from the terminal in Seacombe lies Prenton, the home of Tranmere, a football club that returned to the Football League in 2018, having fallen on hard times since the early 1990s when it threatened to reach the Premier League.
That history is one of the reasons why an American consortium led by Tacopina has an application with the EFL to try and buy the club from former player, Mark Palios, who later acted as the chief executive of the English Football Association.
The Athletic reported in September that Tacopina was attempting to “harness the power of his celebrity contacts” to try to propel Tranmere up the divisions from League Two. In a report the following month, it was revealed on these pages that rapper A$AP Rocky and Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby were two of the investors.
According to a source involved in the deal, who would like to remain anonymous to protect working relationships, there is a belief the takeover will be completed in early 2025. While the source suggests it has taken longer than expected to reach this point after an unnamed investor dropped out, The Athletic has been told separately that an unnamed investor’s application was rejected by the EFL. This led to the buying group trying to source a replacement. The EFL declined to comment.
Tacopina has been involved in Italian football for a decade, with mixed success. He knows Tranmere is not a sexy name but neither was Wrexham before they were taken over by the Hollywood actors Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney in 2021. While Tranmere has a fight this season to retain its Football League status, Tacopina would be taking on a club that more or less breaks even.
Palios is naturally cautious. For years, he’s wanted to find a minority partner but interested parties have tended to find there isn’t much up-side for such investment. Palios has since been able to convince Tacopina that Tranmere has significant potential with a full takeover, that the club has geography on its side and could become the region’s third wheel.
More than 500,000 people live on the Wirral but the majority cannot get tickets for Liverpool or Everton. There is an interest in Tranmere but many Wirral residents are only would-be fans. That would surely change with an upwardly mobile team, as Tranmere were in the 1990s when it tried to reach the top flight and a packed Prenton Park witnessed a series of exciting cup runs.
Tranmere is worth around £20million in assets. Even if the club reached the Championship, the gateway to the Premier League, the value would increase significantly, potentially leaving Tacopina with a profit if he decided to sell. Importantly, the stadium is owned by the club and Tacopina would be inheriting that. Tacopina takes confidence from the stories of clubs like Bournemouth and Brentford, who are now established in the Premier League despite playing in similar-sized stadiums to Prenton Park (Bournemouth’s is actually considerably smaller) and with little history of success at the top level.
Prenton Park, however, does not have the facilities to generate much revenue outside of matchdays. In the boom of the early 90s, the venue was rebuilt on three sides but that did not include the main stand, which remains a relic of corrugated iron and brick. Lorraine Rogers, the chairperson before Palios, suggested the stand was costing Tranmere £500,000 a year to maintain. In 2021, a League Two game with Stevenage was postponed after a part of the roof flew off during a storm.
Palios has explored other stadium options. From the Mersey, the West float slipway leads to Bidston, where a site has been discussed but diehard fans are not enthusiastic about a move three miles away which would take the club away from its roots and potentially position it next to a waste plant, and where there are few pubs and transport links are limited.
Last summer, Palios suggested the zone was ripe for redevelopment in an interview with Liverpool Business News. “I advise my children, if ever they invest in property, invest in the south bank of the river,” he said. “As sure as apples fall from trees, this place is going to get developed.”
Any relocation, however, would need assistance from Wirral Waters as well as a council that for a decade has carefully been trying to manage its budgets due to cuts from central government. At the start of December, the Liverpool Echo reported that the council will be asking the government for a £20million bailout to prevent it from having to declare bankruptcy.
While it is generally accepted the Palios era is near an end and Tranmere needs to find a way to move forward, there is a wariness and some Tranmere supporters are questioning whether they want someone who has represented Trump in a rape trial running their club.
Matt Jones, the presenter of the Trip to the Moon podcast, speaks of “excitement, curiosity and fear”. Two years ago, he tracked down Bruce Osterman, Tranmere’s previous American owner (and the first in English football), to San Francisco.
Osterman told Jones that in 1984, he was able to complete a takeover because Tranmere were “days away from shutting its doors”. Yet Osterman was humble enough to admit that he was ill-prepared for the challenges that followed, despite investing £500,000 in cash. “I didn’t know what the hell I was doing,” he admitted. “I had no experience in this area. I was a trial lawyer… I had no understanding of the history, or where we were going.”
Osterman says that if he had his time again, he “would probably have paid more attention to the team’s relationship with the community”. Over the next three and a half years, Tranmere’s financial position became bleaker and he ended up selling the club at a loss to Palios’ predecessor Peter Johnson, the son of a butcher who became a millionaire businessman in the food industry.
Johnson ended up buying Everton where he was much less popular. His story is a reminder that it is not just American owners who move around clubs, as Friedkin has. Johnson grew up a Liverpool fan, an inconvenient factoid which put him on the back foot at Goodison, where he encountered suspicious minds and hardened attitudes.
Cynicism is deeply embedded among Everton fans, who might wonder how long it will take for their club to see the benefits of being at a new stadium and under new ownership.
Yet Friedkin’s arrival potentially draws a line under much of the uncertainty. Simon Hart, a journalist and author who has written extensively about the club, speaks about the last few years being battered by “existential concerns relating to the club’s future to the extent you are largely numb, hoping just to survive. The impression that Friedkin seems reasonably sensible and hasn’t destroyed Roma is something to grasp and be grateful for.
“At the moment, the thing that needs answering is whether Everton can go into the new stadium as a Premier League club that is secure. There is a sense that anything that keeps the club alive is acceptable.”
Excitement is not the right word but relief might be. Hart thinks Goodison is irreplaceable, a venue where the terraces hang over the pitch and some of the timberwork dates back to the Victorian era. It is as much a part of the club’s identity as the Liver Buildings are to Liverpool. A departure inspires mixed emotions that swirl around the freezing reality that Everton has not won a trophy of any kind since 1995.
As the years pass and the record extends, it becomes harder to escape. Hart describes Goodison as his “special place”, but it feels like “disappointment is soaked into every brick now”. He attended the 0-0 draw with Brentford in November when the visiting team were down to 10 men and it felt as though Goodison was weighed down by negative emotion.
Perhaps their new home allows the club to embrace a fresh start and, as he puts it, “allow Evertonians to look forward rather than back.”
(Top image: Getty Images/Design: Eamonn Dalton)
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