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How do you know if a football manager is actually good at their job?

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How do you know if a football manager is actually good at their job?

An important thing to remember about Andre Villas-Boas is that he had ridiculously good hair.

You don’t spend a record-shattering €15 million (£12.9; $16.3m) fee to sign a rookie manager away from Porto unless you’re pretty sure you know what you’re getting, and one thing Chelsea knew for certain, back in the heady days of 2011, was that the man with a swirling, fox-red side-parting looked impossibly cool getting tossed in the air during trophy celebrations.


Villas-Boas at Porto in 2010 (Dimitar Dilkoff/AFP via Getty Images)

Hair like that had sexy new ideas — a philosophy, perhaps. It had the sort of rakish sweep that could command a press conference, smouldering volcanically above the jagged peaks of an unbuttoned collar. But when the 33-year-old prodigy conducted his first interview as the world’s most expensive manager, all of the glamour quickly drained away.

“Don’t expect something,” Villas-Boas warned gently, “from one man.”

True to his word, he was sacked by March.

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Villas-Boas to Chelsea might have gone down as a historic blunder if not for all the other managers teams have squandered transfer fees on in the last few years alone: Marco Rose to Borussia Dortmund (€5 million up front for one lacklustre season); Adi Hutter to Borussia Monchengladbach (€7.5 million, ditto); Julian Nagelsmann to Bayern Munich (€25 million for 19 months); Graham Potter to Chelsea (let’s not talk about it). These were the cream of the crop, the head coaches clubs couldn’t afford to wait around for, yet in their new jobs they had the shelf life of a bunch of bruised bananas.

How do we know if a manager is good? The question sounds almost too obvious to ask — anyone down the pub will be happy to explain it to you loudly over a pint — but professional organisations with millions at stake whiff on it every year. Apparently the answer isn’t great hair. It can’t be trophies, either, since those are pretty much only available to managers already at top clubs. If the study of up-and-coming coaches can be called a science, it remains a largely theoretical one.

“We’ve done work with football clubs and leagues, actually, around what predicts head coach success and it’s very, very hard,” says Omar Chaudhuri of the sports consultancy 21st Group. “There are very few strong predictors.”

Everyone loves a winner, so it makes sense that employers would start by looking for coaching talent toward the top of the table. But we also know that in the grossly unequal world of European football, wage bills are destiny for most teams, no matter who’s in the technical area. The managers we admire most are the ones who find a way to punch above their weight.

To pick out those overachievers, we can start by modelling the relationship between squad strength and success using crowdsourced “market values” from Transfermarkt, which are a decent proxy for player quality when you don’t have wages handy. We’ll average this season’s values with last season’s, where available, to give coaches some credit for player development, then weight the values by minutes played to account for absences.

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For the performance side, we’ll use a 70/30 blend of non-penalty expected goal difference and actual goal difference, which captures team strength pretty well and puts more emphasis on the parts of the game coaches are likely to have some influence over (creating and denying chances) than the parts they probably don’t (finishing, saving shots, successfully lobbying for penalties by doing the VAR rectangle thing with their fingers).

The results are striking. Over the last seven seasons across Europe’s top leagues, our simple player quality model can explain around 80 per cent of teams’ success.

But what about the remaining 20 per cent — who should get credit for that?

When we look at the outliers on the chart above, it seems fair to say that Gian Piero Gasperini’s freewheeling style helped elevate Atalanta’s mid-budget squad into a Champions League contender a few years back, and the whole platoon of head coaches and interim guys who oversaw Schalke’s disastrous 2020-21 campaign probably weren’t so hot at their job. Maybe performance over squad value is a fair measure of what a manager brings to the table.

Reassuringly, this season’s list of top teams for adjusted goal difference over expected is a veritable who’s who of coaching legends and the game’s hottest up-and-coming managers.

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Xabi Alonso has turned down overtures from Bayern Munich and Liverpool to stay at German champs-in-waiting Bayer Leverkusen, while Brighton’s Roberto De Zerbi, whom no less an authority than Pep Guardiola called “one of the most influential managers of the last 20 years,” remains a strong contender for both jobs.

In Catalonia, Barcelona have been making eyes at Girona’s Michel. Sebastian Hoeness, Paulo Fonseca, Thiago Motta and Will Still have flocks of admirers, and maybe we should all be paying more attention to whatever Eric Roy’s got cooking at Brest.

So is that it — have we cracked the not-so-secret formula to finding Europe’s next top manager?

Well, hang on a second.

One important trait for a good sports stat is stability, or how much it varies from season to season. If last year’s performance can’t predict next year’s because the number is too sensitive to context, you probably don’t want to make it the sole basis for any expensive hiring decisions.

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By that standard, our manager metric is a bust. For head coaches who change jobs, there’s no correlation whatsoever between the previous year’s performance above or below expectations at their old club and their first season at their new club. Even though goal difference added seemed pretty good at identifying this season’s hottest managers, it has zero predictive value for new hires.

When Chelsea spent £21.5 million to sign Graham Potter, he was coming off one of the best runs by any head coach in the last seven years: in 2020-21 and 2021-22, Brighton finished 22 and 13 adjusted goals better than expected. His seven months in London went, er, not quite as well.

Brighton, meanwhile, signed Roberto De Zerbi even though his final season at Sassuolo had been about average compared to their squad value. He’d had a pretty good season the year before that, and a respectable stint outside the top five leagues at Shakhtar Donetsk in between, but nothing that might have hinted that his first season at Brighton would be the fourth-best out of hundreds in our dataset.

What can explain the difference between these two very different hiring stories? Maybe there’s a clue in how Brighton’s famously analytical owner Tony Bloom explained his process. “I am confident,” he said of the De Zerbi hire, “his style and tactical approach will suit our existing squad superbly.”


De Zerbi (facing camera) and Potter in 2022 (Bryn Lennon/Getty Images)

Smart clubs don’t just hire successful managers in hopes that they possess some innate knowledge of how to win. They’re careful to match a coach’s tactics to the players they already have, knowing that changing styles will cost them money and time.

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“I don’t want to have to replace 15 players or something like that over two years,” says one veteran analytics consultant, who requested anonymity to protect client relationships. “Because then it becomes a project of just kind of cycling through players and hoping things work out.”

Not every club is as careful about this step as Brighton. Chaudhuri explains that searches often start with a “performance piece” to determine whether managers are making the most of their current squad, but “then you have a playing style piece, which clubs generally tend to be quite vague on how they want to play. They say, ‘We want games to be attractive and exciting,’ whatever that means. And then you go, ‘Okay, tell us what you think that looks like.’”

The other consultant agrees. “I had this meeting yesterday, I gave five candidates, like, ‘What do you think of these five?’” he says. “And he was like, ‘Well, I like these four.’ But I said, ‘One of these four is actually not the style you said you want.’”

Figuring out which managers have exceeded expectations is the easy part. You can watch their players flinging them into the air at a trophy celebration and envision your club doing the same next season. But success, on its own, is fickle. It also tends to be expensive. The right question isn’t “How do we know if a manager is good?” but “How do we know if a manager will be good for this group of players?”

The secret ingredient in hiring the right coach is style — and not just the kind that comes with really good hair.

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(Header photo: Lars Baron/Getty Images)


The Athletic recently profiled six of European football’s most innovative up-and-coming managers.

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‘Everybody listens’: Nick Saban caps a significant rookie season on ESPN

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‘Everybody listens’: Nick Saban caps a significant rookie season on ESPN

The Worldwide Leader in Employing Former Coaches and Players has made many prominent hires over the years, but Nick Saban slots into a class of his own.

Multiple eras of ESPN management never hid their desire to bring Saban into their orbit, and I remember reporting an item in August 2014 on Saban’s wowing ESPN staffers during a long conversation at The Langham Hotel in Pasadena, Calif., the day before the national championship game. The NFL is ESPN’s most important property, but in many ways, college sports make ESPN go.

Saban, represented forever by CAA, the talent agency that essentially has an office in ESPN’s headquarters in Bristol, Conn., clearly was intrigued by broadcasting, and ESPN finally landed its man last February. Think of Tommy Lee Jones chasing Harrison Ford in “The Fugitive,” except this story ends with Ford getting a multimillion-dollar deal to talk college football.

Saban was in the middle of the “College GameDay” set Monday night in Atlanta as part of a two-hour pregame show. He also pulled halftime duties. The iconic show now centers around Pat McAfee, who brings energy and unpredictability, and Saban, who has been charged with bringing gravitas.

Saban has delivered that in his opening year. Monday night in Atlanta, he offered a nice piece of copy early in the pregame:

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“The most important thing in games like this is who can keep the main thing the main thing,” Saban said. “There’s a lot more disruptions when you are playing in a national championship game. You travel at a different time. You practice in a different place. You have more media obligations. Everybody has won three big games. Both teams won a big game last week.

“How do they handle the whole idea of, ‘Am I relieved that we got to this point or am I going to go get the gold?’ People remember the ‘Miracle On Ice.’ We beat Russia, and that was like what everybody remembers. We had to go beat Finland the next week (Editor’s note: It was actually two days later) to win the gold medal. Somebody has to step up tonight and win the gold medal.”

What GameDay lacked for a couple of years was someone right off the field, whether a player or coach, and that’s where Saban has been significant. Broadcasters do not impact viewership outside of a rare few (maybe Howard Cosell and Charles Barkley), and I’m not sure Saban falls in this category, but the data is the data: “College GameDay” averaged 2.2 million viewers during the regular season, its most-watched season ever and a 6 percent increase from 2023.

Jim Gaiero, who has been the lead producer of “College GameDay” for the past nine years, said he was intimidated by Saban when the former Alabama coach first joined the show.

“Just because he’s Nick Saban,” Gaiero said. “I didn’t really know him that well. I thought he would be that same coach who’s yelling at Lane Kiffin and demanding perfection in everything we do. I was definitely intimidated. Now he busts my chops more than any human being. I am his punching bag, and it’s fun. He’s very funny and a ball-buster.

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“He was always good on TV, and when the camera’s on, he’s on. So it was about learning things like how do you introduce a point that leads to an XO tape, or where you direct yourself during a conversation.

“I remember early in the season I was talking to him, and I said, ‘If you are going to go to Dez (Desmond Howard) next, make sure you’re looking at Dez.’ He’s like, ‘Well, why didn’t you tell me this before?!’ I was like, ‘Well, I didn’t want to give you everything at once.’ We’ve added stuff each week, and he’s grown so much since the beginning of the season.

“The thing is, whenever he makes a comment, everybody listens. He doesn’t have throwaway comments. There are some analysts who tend to repeat what their co-analysts just said. It’s almost like an echo. But when he speaks, it’s a unique perspective that nobody else has ever had.”

It is very intentional to place Saban in the middle of the set, as opposed to an end, because Gaiero said it is easier for the other panelists to interact with him. (You don’t want newcomers on the edge of a set because it makes it tougher for them to get acclimated to the conversation.) Gaiero said GameDay benefited from Saban’s already knowing all its on-air members before becoming one.

“The best moments for our chemistry are the Friday meetings because Nick will tell a few stories, and everyone is on the edge of their seats listening,” Gaiero said. “It can be as silly as a recruiting story or the time he played at this stadium. He tells the story, and we’re all laughing, and he’s laughing and smiling. He’s like, ‘I don’t know if you guys want that on the show,’ and we’re all like, ‘My God, that’s definitely in the show!’”

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Gaiero said Saban’s best moments this year were his “nothing” speech from October and when he discussed changing his coaching style from transactional to transformative. (They submitted the latter for the Sports Emmy nomination process.)

The next evolution for Saban, according to Gaiero, is to refine his preparation process. The producer wants him to talk to as many coaches as he can during the offseason and, of course, watch tape.

The program would be wise in Year 2 to dial back on the genuflecting of Saban. His resume speaks for itself — no need for the on-air cast to go overboard in deifying him. Saban also has been at his best when fewer people are on set. That was the case in the 7-7:30 p.m. ET hour Monday, when he was prominently featured alongside McAfee, Howard and host Rece Davis.

“He now knows what he needs to do on television,” Gaiero said. “Early on in the season, we might mention 30 games on a production call, and he’d want to know which games I wanted him to focus on. I told him early on to think of everything like a funnel. We’re going to start off with a lot of games and teams, and then as the weeks go by, certain teams are going to fall by the wayside because they’re not going to matter anymore. His preparation can be simplified going into next year.

“I think he definitely sees himself as a broadcaster now, and he’s seeking the feedback to be a better broadcaster. This isn’t just a one-year or two-year thing for him.”

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(Photo: Butch Dill / Getty Images)

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The Most Anticipated Book Adaptations of 2025: Movies and TV Shows

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The Most Anticipated Book Adaptations of 2025: Movies and TV Shows

New Year, new reading goals. It’s that season again when anything feels possible: Maybe this is the year you’ll finally tackle that dust-laden copy of “Infinite Jest” sitting on your shelf, or earn your “I finished ‘The Power Broker’” mug. And for binge watchers, it’s also the perfect chance to study up by diving into the books that are being adapted into movies and TV shows in 2025. Here are some of the thrillers, romances, sci-fi page turners and detective novels coming soon to a screen near you.

This is a running list. Check back for more updates as the year goes on.

Peter Sutherland is an F.B.I. agent who works at the White House, monitoring an emergency phone line that seldom rings. One night, he receives a distressing call from a woman named Rose Larkin, who reports that two people have just been murdered. What follows is a whirlwind of action and suspense as the two become entangled in a conspiracy involving high-level corruption and espionage.

Season 2 of “The Night Agent” premieres on Netflix on Jan. 23.

There have been no shortage of screen versions of Sherlock Holmes, Doyle’s beloved British detective: According to the Guinness Book of World Records, the persnickety genius is the second-most portrayed literary character in the history of film. In “Watson,” the latest adaptation, however, the focus is on Dr. John Watson, Holmes’s loyal confidant and the frequent narrator of his escapades. Though the series is not inspired by a specific book or story, “A Study in Scarlet” is a delectable primer on the two men’s longstanding friendship.

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“Watson” premieres on CBS and Paramount+ on Jan. 26.

In this spinoff of Pilkey’s “Captain Underpants” universe, Dog Man — a part-dog, part-human police officer — and his eccentric friends battle villains and solve crimes. Blending humor, action and heart, the graphic novel series teaches young readers about friendship and bravery — all brought to life through colorful illustrations and quirky anthropomorphic characters. It has already been adapted into an Off Broadway musical. Now it heads to the big screen.

“Dog Man” premieres in theaters on Jan. 31.

In this third installment of Fielding’s series about an endearingly hapless British diarist, Bridget Jones is adjusting to widowed life after the death of her husband, Mark Darcy. Raising her two young children as a single mother now in her 50s, she juggles her career and navigates romantic mishaps with characteristic wit and self-deprecating humor. The book, our critic wrote, “is not only sharp and humorous, despite its heroine’s aged circumstances, but also snappily written, observationally astute and at times genuinely moving.”

“Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy” premieres on Peacock on Feb. 13.

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Paddington was still in Peru when he first appeared on the big screen in 2014. Now, over a decade later, he returns to his home country with his adopted Brown family in the third installment of this fan-favorite film series, inspired by Bond’s beloved books. Dozens of titles, including novels, picture books and short story collections, have been published since the clumsy brown bear made his print debut in 1958, but “A Bear Called Paddington” remains a perfect introduction to the marmalade enthusiast.

“Paddington in Peru” premieres in theaters on Feb. 14.

In this 1958 novel, now being given the mini-series treatment, Prince Don Fabrizio Corbera grapples with the decline of his aristocratic family’s status in 1860s Sicily, as Giuseppe Garibaldi leads the Risorgimento campaign to overthrow the monarchy and unite Italy as one nation-state. Lampedusa was himself the last in a line of Sicilian princes, and he drew heavily on his own family’s story to craft this tale about the rise of a new bourgeois class and Prince Fabrizio’s struggles to find his place in a rapidly changing world.

“The Leopard” premieres on Netflix on March 5.

Mickey, an “expendable” worker on a remote ice planet, knows he will most likely die on the job. But no matter: Cloning exists in this space colony and, after one version of Mickey dies, a new one will regenerate. After Mickey7 goes missing on a space mission, Mickey8 is immediately created. The only problem? Mickey7 is still alive. (And in case eight regenerations weren’t enough, the director Bong Joon Ho takes it 10 steps further in his film adaptation, “Mickey17,” starring Robert Pattinson as Mickey.)

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“Mickey17” premieres in theaters on March 7.

Ray and his best friend, Manny, met in a juvenile detention facility. Nearly two decades later, they’ve found a way to make a living by posing as D.E.A. agents and raiding drug houses in Philadelphia. It’s a simple and lucrative grift — until a poorly chosen mark puts them in the cross hairs of a dangerous kingpin. High-speed car chases, bloody violence and many flying bullets ensue.

“Dope Thief” premieres on Apple TV+ on March 14.

“The Mirror and Light” is the final book in Mantel’s “Wolf Hall” trilogy, which chronicles Thomas Cromwell’s rise to power in Henry VIII’s capricious court. It’s a sinewy, imaginative work of historical fiction that delights in the psyche of a man whose political maneuvering and ambitions lead him to the pinnacle of power — and to his own undoing. The actor Mark Rylance, who won a BAFTA for his portrayal of Cromwell in the 2015 mini series that covered the trilogy’s first two novels, returns for this final chapter.

“Wolf Hall: The Mirror and the Light” premieres on PBS on March 23.

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Unrivaled’s an instant hit, but can the new women’s basketball 3×3 league sustain?

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Unrivaled’s an instant hit, but can the new women’s basketball 3×3 league sustain?

MEDLEY, Fla. — Outside a custom-built arena on the outskirts of Miami, a line of fans waited to sit on a throne composed largely of basketballs. They wrote personal answers on a sign asking, “What does Unrivaled mean to you?” Empowerment. Leadership. Community. Future. Not even some evening rain could extinguish the buzz that had been building since 2023, when fans learned about the creation of this new 3×3 women’s basketball league.

As fans filed into the 850-seat Wayfair Arena on Friday night for the opening night of Unrivaled, they sported a tapestry of WNBA gear. But many wanted new apparel, too, crowding into the gift shop an hour before tipoff. The least expensive single ticket cost north of $300, but fans flocked to support their favorite WNBA stars and witness a new chapter of women’s basketball history.

At tip-off before the first game of a doubleheader, co-founders Napheesa Collier and Breanna Stewart posed at center court for a photo to capture the moment before they competed against each other.

The nationally televised contests aired back to back on TNT, highlights replayed on SportsCenter, and a clip of Skylar Diggins-Smith sinking the league’s first game-ending shot amassed millions of views across various social media platforms.

In its opening weekend of games, Unrivaled has undoubtedly commanded attention. But to carve out a permanent space in women’s basketball, it needs to accomplish what many other start-up sports leagues have historically failed to do: sustain.

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Unrivaled executives say the league’s long-term success has been set up by its stable foundation — signing renowned WNBA stars, attracting big-brand sponsors, capitalizing on lucrative investments and inking a multi-year television deal.

“I think we put ourselves in a great position to be successful right away, but it’s a marathon,” said league president Alex Bazzell, a basketball skills trainer and Collier’s husband. “We’re not running out there from Day 1 trying to get millions of viewers out of the gate. It would be tremendous, but we’re gonna be here for a little while.”

Before Unrivaled filled its rosters with 22 WNBA All-Stars, it started with just two — Stewart and Collier. Like many of their WNBA peers, the star forwards share a history of spending months overseas during the offseason and competing professionally abroad to supplement their WNBA incomes and sharpen their games.

The routine sparked brainstorming between them. Bazzell first pitched Unrivaled to Stewart in late 2022. “(We were) trying to make women’s basketball continue to be relevant in the offseason from a professional standpoint,” she said.

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From the beginning, both players were on constant phone and Zoom calls. They met with investors, relaying their experiences from their years in countries such as Turkey, France, China and Russia. They explained why they believe top women’s basketball players should be marketed in the U.S. during the WNBA offseason and how Unrivaled could offer comparable domestic competition and salaries on par with high-paying overseas clubs.

They wanted to convince stakeholders that Unrivaled wouldn’t be just a novelty but that the league would have staying power. “(Stewart and Collier were) instrumental because when brands come in they act like founders,” Bazzell said.

The two players, alongside other Unrivaled executives, sold their idea to major brands and to deep-pocketed investors, including Gary Vaynerchuk, U.S. soccer star Alex Morgan and NBA legend Carmelo Anthony.

Bazzell said the league already has “far exceeded” the first-year revenue expectations it pitched to initial investors. “We’re focused on building a great business, but for the time being we don’t have to worry about money,” he said.

That is partially because of its media rights deal — a six-year $100 million agreement with Warner Bros. Discovery, according to a source with knowledge of the agreement — and a robust sponsorship roster.

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The day before tipoff last week, Stewart paused for a moment and pointed out a banner displaying some of Unrivaled’s partners: Ally, Under Armour, Samsung Galaxy, Sephora. “People are walking that walk and also talking that talk,” she said.

The question is: Will they continue?


Unrivaled’s launch comes at a time of unprecedented attention on women’s basketball. Record-breaking viewership, attendance and media deals became commonplace for women’s college basketball and the WNBA over the last two years.

“You couldn’t have landed this at a better time,” said David Levy, an Unrivaled investor who is the former head of Turner Sports and current co-CEO of Horizon Sports and Entertainment.

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Bazzell said Unrivaled operates with a “startup mentality.” Executives might create rules one day and unload boxes the next. The league, of course, is still unproven. But unlike many other short-lived start-up leagues, key to Unrivaled’s early success is that its most important members are verifiable stars.

“A lot of times leagues go away because they don’t have the best of the best playing in them,” Levy said. “Unrivaled didn’t start with names nobody knew or people that didn’t make the WNBA. This is the best of the best.”

Early on, Unrivaled executives recognized attracting top talent would be critical to creating visibility on TV, with partners and on social media. With nearly two-dozen WNBA All-Stars — Stewart, Collier, Brittney Griner, Sabrina Ionescu, Angel Reese among them — and seven No. 1 WNBA Draft picks, name recognition isn’t an issue.

To keep so many stars in the U.S., they knew the importance of paying salaries competitive with top overseas clubs. Unrivaled said it is the highest-paying American women’s sports league in history, with salaries averaging north of $200,000.

Its 36 players are more than just talent in Unrivaled, too. A substantial portion of the league’s equity — around 15 percent — is allocated to players. “We’re proud to be here also as investors,” Diggins-Smith said. “All of us being investors, (we) really care about this product and (it) really doing well… You want it to sustain.”

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GO DEEPER

How Unrivaled became a welcome alternative for WNBA players’ overseas offseasons

Three-time WNBA MVP A’ja Wilson and rookie sensation Caitlin Clark are among those not playing in Unrivaled. The league made overtures to rookie Clark, but she elected to sit out the inaugural season, as she recovers from a nonstop last 12 months. Clark’s WNBA salary — around $75,000 — is supplemented by her countless endorsement deals, and she told Time she felt training privately in her own space would be beneficial. Clark, though, didn’t rule out playing in the league in the future. If she does, Levy said, interest in the league will “catapult,” surely propelling its long-term outlook. But he stressed that Unrivaled isn’t built around one person.

Unrivaled already has a high-profile media rights partnership, which is critical to its financial foundation and will be important in its ability to grow.

Initially, Unrivaled executives wondered if the league would need to broker a revenue-sharing deal with a potential TV or streaming partner before getting a licensing deal once the season launched. But they quickly found that multiple parties were interested in a licensing agreement with at least four companies in the final bidding, Levy said.

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Bazzell relied on Levy and John Skipper, the former president of ESPN and another early Unrivaled investor, to tap into their professional networks and help find a partner.

Things crystallized this summer when Bazzell met with TNT Sports CEO Luis Silberwasser while in France for the Olympics. Having reach outside of traditional broadcast windows was important to Unrivaled, Bazzell said, as founders recognized the importance — both financially and culturally — of having broad social media reach. Warner Bros. Discovery’s portfolio including Bleacher Report, House of Highlights and HighlightHer (recently renamed B/R W) made it especially appealing.

WBD was ideal, executives said, because of everything it had under one roof: widespread TV distribution (all games will air on TNT or TruTV, and stream on Max), ancillary production, and social media strongholds, a key component of Unrivaled’s business strategy. Warner Bros. also financially invested in Unrivaled, as a sign of its deep commitment to the league’s success.

Getting WBD and Unrivaled founding partner, Ally, on board were critical in the avalanche of partnership deals that followed. (Ally has pledged a 50/50 media spend to support men’s and women’s sports equally.)

Under Armour senior lead for global sports marketing, Tamzin Barroilhet, first met with Bazzell in the summer of 2023. A former college and overseas pro player, Barroilhet said she was “hooked” on the concept and Unrivaled’s deal with WBD helped convince the apparel brand to sign on as the official outfitter. Unrivaled is Under Armour’s highest-profile women’s basketball partnership, and a number of other brands also struck deals in women’s basketball for the first time. Sephora’s agreement with the league is the beauty company’s first partnership with any sports league.

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Unrivaled’s scarcity was also intriguing to prospective investors. The league runs only 10 weeks. Its $8 million salary pool is one of its two largest categorical allocation of funds. As a single-site operation, it has a lower operational cost than many other start-up leagues, which Bazzell said minimizes its burn rate.

“(When you) keep the product at a premium level and ultra-competitive, you have some opportunities to pique interest,” he said.

The league announced in December it had raised an additional $28 million (on top of the $7 million in its seed round) from investors, including Milwaukee Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo, tennis star Coco Gauff, swimmer Michael Phelps, and South Carolina women’s basketball coach Dawn Staley. A number of its initial investors, including Anthony, Morgan and UConn women’s basketball coach Geno Auriemma, committed additional capital.

“We have new people trying to rush in and now we’re getting to a point where you have to be selective,” Bazzell said.


Fans flocked to buy merchandise before Unrivaled’s inaugural games in Florida. (Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)

How Unrivaled engages and grows its audience is paramount to its future.

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League officials stress TV ratings will be just one aspect of that answer. “It’s part of a puzzle,” Levy said. “How many people are following (on social media)? What are they doing? How many people are sharing? How much is the fan base interacting with it? How much is merchandise going up? There are going to be so many different metrics that I think are going to play into this.”

Part of their build involves recruiting the next generation. Aliyah Boston, the Indiana Fever center and 2023 No. 1 pick, said college players she’s talked to aim to play in the WNBA and Unrivaled. LSU star Flau’jae Johnson has an NIL deal with Unrivaled, and UConn’s Paige Bueckers, who is the presumed No. 1 pick in this April’s WNBA Draft, has an NIL deal and equity in the league. Bueckers plans to play in Unrivaled when she turns pro.

USC’s JuJu Watkins won’t enter the WNBA until 2027, but when she enters the pro ranks, Unrivaled will have a spot for her. She was among the December investors and is optimistic about the league’s future and sustainability.

When those players set foot in Unrivaled, the league will almost assuredly be different. This season, all 10 weeks of action take place at the Florida facility, but a tour model for competition is planned for next year.

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

Can Unrivaled’s 3×3 style benefit WNBA players?

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The locations are yet to be determined but Unrivaled is targeting non-WNBA cities and college towns. Bazzell said it wouldn’t visit more than four cities and the league will still have a home base. The operational cost, Bazzell said, would be similar as it’s likely only four teams would travel to a given stop. Important to maintaining a premier player experience, the league would use charter airfare to transport its players.

“We want to go to different markets to help grow the game and bring a touch point to hopefully a lot of young girls around the country that are looking up to these players and haven’t been able to see them play in person,” Bazzell said.

Taking the league on the road will bring logistic challenges, but league executives believe it will help grow Unrivaled’s business and open it to even more fan opportunities. Barroilhet, the Under Armour executive, foresees potential youth clinics and camps in conjunction with Unrivaled’s tour. Brands could produce activations at different venues, furthering engagement and reach.

Ensuring the WNBA’s top players participate will be critical to Unrivaled’s sustainability, and perhaps some are less interested in any travel necessary for touring. WNBA salaries drastically increasing in the next CBA — the league is negotiating a new agreement with the WNBPA — could also diminish part of a player’s financial lure to the new league. Plus, while TV ratings aren’t fully indicative of overall fan interest, they still remain a datapoint that will impact the league’s viability, especially when media rights conversations begin for a second time.

Yet for now, the stars seem delighted to be in the new venture. Throughout Friday and Saturday’s action, Unrivaled athletes from other teams sat around the arena and watched their peers, enjoying the moment. Fans approached players like Jackie Young, Rhyne Howard and Natasha Cloud for selfies. Onlookers cheered not only for athletes playing, but for those wandering the aisles. “It’s a very intimate setting,” Jewell Loyd said.

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Maintaining that connection will build fan loyalty. But for television audiences, the game — the appeal of watching the best players in the world perform — will have to remain at the forefront.

“At the end of the day, the product needs to be great for fans to continue to want to watch it,” Bazzell said. “You can capture people’s attention, but how do you keep people’s attention? It’s done through the most competitive product possible, which is really what we’re adamant on, day in and day out.”

(Top photo of Kahleah Copper: Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)

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