Culture
College football Week 11 oddly specific predictions: Down go the Hoosiers!
Picking Penn State to lose to Ohio State does not deserve a victory lap. Losing big games is what the Nittany Lions do.
Like James Franklin, I deserved to get booed off the field last week after posting an embarrassing 4-5 record picking up straight-up winners. My 59-31 overall record for the season feels especially hollow when I’ve missed on four consecutive upset alerts to fall to 3-6 when sounding the alarm.
We’ll get to my hits and misses below, but first, here are this week’s picks. There are only two Top 25 matchups, but plenty of other intriguing games as conference races narrow.
Most passing yards
The one prediction I nailed last week was calling for Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart to lead all FBS passers in yards. This week, the numbers are screaming to go with Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders, one of eight quarterbacks averaging more than 300 passing yards a game.
Travis Hunter went on Shedeur Sanders Podcast 🔥
Shedeur : “If I’m playing like you I’m talking crazy”
Travis : “I just hate when people say I’m not top 5 at Receiver top 5 at DB”
🎥 : @ShedeurSanders @TravisHunterJr pic.twitter.com/08WM84u5Pq
— We Coming 🦬 (@SkoBuffsGoBuffs) November 5, 2024
The Buffaloes are 3.5-point favorites at Texas Tech, which ranks 133rd in passing defense but is coming off its biggest win of the season at Iowa State. Joey McGuire’s team is also 7-2 in November games under his watch. Sanders will throw for 450-plus yards, including 150 to Heisman hopeful Travis Hunter. But Texas Tech wins a high-scoring game on a late interception.
Most rushing yards
Tennessee’s Dylan Sampson is one of only eight running backs averaging more than 120 yards rushing per game. His 19 rushing touchdowns are tied with Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson and Army’s Bryson Daily for second behind Boise State star Ashton Jeanty’s 20.
This week, I’m riding with Sampson to lead all rushers in yards because he’s facing a Mississippi State defense that’s ranked 124th against the run. The seventh-ranked Volunteers are 23.5-point favorites at home and have won their last three games by six, seven and 10 points in comeback fashion. This week, it will be a little easier. Sampson runs for a season-high 200-plus yards and three touchdowns and Tennessee wins by three scores.
Most receiving yards
FIU’s Eric Rivers led all receivers last week with 295 yards and three touchdowns in a win over New Mexico State. This week, I’m going with another receiver from the same area code to rack up the most yards: Miami’s Xavier Restrepo, who became the Hurricanes’ all-time leading receiver in last week’s come-from-behind win over Duke.
Fourth-ranked Miami is an 11.5-point favorite at Georgia Tech, which handed the Canes a devastating loss last season despite a career-high 12 catches from Restrepo. Restrepo gets revenge, connecting with Cam Ward 12 times for 200-plus yards in a 10-point Miami win in Atlanta.
Five big games
No. 3 Georgia (-2.5) at No. 16 Ole Miss
The Bulldogs have won 11 of the last 12 meetings with the Rebels, including last year’s 52-17 thrashing in Athens. Yet, there are reasons why the spread entering this one is less than a field goal: Carson Beck’s 11 interceptions and Ole Miss’ ability to post a gaudy stat line.
Dart’s 515 passing yards and six TDs last week against Arkansas, with a breakout performance from Jordan Watkins, provide more reason for me to stick with my midseason prediction. That is Georgia finishes 10-2, misses the SEC title game and still makes noise in the College Football Playoff. Give me Ole Miss on a late TD pass from Dart.
No. 11 Alabama (-3) at No. 15 LSU
The Crimson Tide are 29-10-2 all-time at Tiger Stadium and 3-1 against Brian Kelly at LSU. Kelly’s one win came the last time the Tide visited Baton Rouge. Both teams are coming off idle weeks, but with different results — Alabama crushed Missouri while LSU folded late at Texas A&M.
So, I’m not going against my midseason script. Alabama will beat LSU to stay on track to make the Playoff and Jalen Milroe will once again carve up the Tigers with his feet as he did a year ago. This time, he’ll run for 150 yards and two scores in a 10-point win.
Jalen Milroe highlights vs LSU 🔥pic.twitter.com/w0pPrlbAvj https://t.co/f4tk6CXW4h
— 𝙏𝙝𝙤𝙢𝙖𝙨 🎃 (@ThomasWrrld) July 16, 2024
No. 9 BYU (-5) at Utah
Few envisioned BYU being the top-10 team contending for a conference championship and Playoff berth when these two rivals met. But the Cougars very much deserve credit for where they are with impressive wins against two ranked teams — SMU and Kansas State.
The hard part is trying to determine if the Utes can muster any offense after they’ve averaged only 12.5 points over their recent four-game losing streak. The guess here is they can’t. Utah will be held to under 300 yards for the third time this season and BYU wins by a touchdown.
No. 17 Iowa State (-3) at Kansas
The Big 12 feels a bit disrespected after seeing only one team in the top 16 of the CFP rankings. But Iowa State and Kansas State have no one to blame but themselves following head-scratching losses last weekend.
At the start of the season, Kansas was everyone’s dark horse to win the league, and now Lance Leipold’s team needs to win its last four games to qualify for a bowl. Jalon Daniels has not been good enough to this point and he’s going to struggle against a solid Cyclones defense. Iowa State bounces back and keeps its CFP hopes alive with a seven-point win at Arrowhead Stadium.
No. 25 Army (-5.5) at North Texas
The Black Knights are one of five remaining FBS unbeatens and are outscoring opponents by 26.6 points a game. The problem is six of those seven FBS wins are against teams with losing records. North Texas is by far Army’s toughest opponent yet. The Mean Green have the highest-scoring offense in the American Athletic Conference and lost shootouts at Memphis and Tulane in their previous two games.
Army coach Jeff Monken said Daily, his starting quarterback, could be back after missing the win over Air Force last week. I’m not sure it matters here. North Texas quarterback Chandler Morris puts up huge numbers every week and he will do so again (350-plus passing yards, three TDs) in an upset win.
Upset alert
Michigan at No. 8 Indiana (-14.5)
Indiana’s strength of schedule (82nd according to The Athletic’s Austin Mock) is why the undefeated Hoosiers were No. 8 in the first installment of the CFP rankings. They have two wins over P4 teams with winning records: Washington (5-4) and Nebraska (5-4).
You’d have to be a little crazy at this point to think Curt Cignetti’s team isn’t for real considering it is beating FBS opponents by 27.8 points a game. Picking against Indiana here is probably dumb considering Michigan’s offense stinks. But I said at midseason the Hoosiers wouldn’t make the Playoff, and I can’t chicken out now. Colston Loveland is the hero.
Week 10 report card
As mentioned before, my big victory last week was predicting Dart would lead all QBs in passing yards.
My pick to lead all rushers, Daily, was a late scratch from Army’s lineup against Air Force. The Black Knights still won, 20-3, as I said they would. They just didn’t cover the 22.5-point spread.
Outside of picking Ohio State to win, my only other victory was picking Oregon to handle its business and cover a 14.5-spread over Michigan with Dillon Gabriel throwing for more than 250 yards and three touchdowns. Gabriel threw for 294 yards and one touchdown, and the Ducks beat Michigan 38-17.
And now to a string of really bad predictions — and some accountability.
I picked Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan to lead all receivers in yardage in a Wildcats’ upset over UCF. McMillan finished with six catches for 84 yards and a touchdown, and UCF obliterated Arizona 56-12.
I said Iowa State would score late on a Rocco Becht touchdown to remain unbeaten against Texas Tech. Instead, Tahj Brooks scored with 20 seconds left to rob Becht of his heroics, and the Cyclones lost 23-22.
I had Clemson covering a 10.5-point spread against Louisville with Cade Klubnik (250-plus passing yards, two TDs) and Phil Mafah (100-plus rushing yards, two TDs) doing work. Klubnik threw for 228 yards and a score and Mafah ran for 171 yards and two scores. But Louisville beat Clemson by 12.
I said Marcel Reed’s rushing ability would be the difference in a big road win for Texas A&M at South Carolina. The Gamecocks outscored Texas A&M 24-0 in the second half and rolled to a 44-20 upset.
I said Pitt would pull off a road upset behind its opportunistic defense (three turnovers forced) at SMU. The Mustangs destroyed the Panthers 48-25.
(Photo of Kurtis Rourke: Jordon Kelly / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Culture
Book Review: ‘Selling Opportunity,’ by Mary Lisa Gavenas
SELLING OPPORTUNITY: The Story of Mary Kay, by Mary Lisa Gavenas
Mary Kay, the cosmetics company whose multilevel marketing included sales parties and whose biggest earners were awarded pink Cadillacs, was really in the business of selling second chances. Or, at least, that’s what Mary Lisa Gavenas argues in “Selling Opportunity,” a dual biography of the brand and the woman behind it.
Mary Kathlyn Wagner, who would become Mary Kay Ash, “the most famous saleswoman in the world” and “maybe the most famous ever,” in Gavenas’s extravagant words, was born in 1918 to a poor family and raised mostly in Houston. Although a good student, she eloped at 16 with a slightly older boy. The young couple had two babies in quick succession.
Mary Kay’s creation was a combination of timing and good luck. Door-to-door sales was a thriving industry — but, traditionally, a man’s world: Lugging heavy samples was not considered feminine, and entering the homes of strangers, unsafe. But things began to change during the Great Depression, Gavenas suggests, thanks to a convergence of factors — financial pressures and the rise of the aspirational prosperity gospel espoused by Dale Carnegie’s self-help manuals.
At the same time, female-run beauty lines like Annie Turnbo Malone’s Poro and Madam C.J. Walker’s were finding great success in Black communities. And, coincidentally or otherwise, the California Perfume Company changed its name to Avon Products in 1939.
Ash began by selling books door to door, moving on to Stanley Home Products in the 1940s. She was talented, but direct sales was a rough gig. Every party to show off wares was supposed to beget two more bookings; these led to sales that resulted in new recruits. But there was no real security or stability: no salary, no medical benefits, no vacations. “Stop selling and you would end up right back where you started. Or worse,” the author writes.
Gavenas, a onetime beauty editor who wrote “Color Stories,” takes her time unspooling Mary Kay’s tale, with a great deal of evident research. We learn about direct sales, women’s rights and Texas history.
But, be warned: Readers must really enjoy both this woman and this world to take pleasure in “Selling Opportunity.” Mary Kay the person keeps marrying, getting divorced or widowed and working her way through various sales jobs (it’s hard to keep track of the myriad companies and last names). Gavenas seems to leave no detail out. Thus, the 1963 founding of the eponymous beauty company doesn’t come until almost 200 pages in.
Beauty by Mary Kay included a Cleansing Cream, a Magic Masque and a Nite Cream (which containined ammoniated mercury, later banned by the F.D.A.). The full line of products — which was how Mary Kay strongly encouraged customers to buy them — ran to a steep $175 in today’s money. (To fail to acquire the whole set, Ash said, was “like giving you my recipe for chocolate cake but leaving out an important ingredient.”)
Potential clients attended gatherings at acquaintances’ homes — no undignified doorbell-ringing here — where they received a mini facial, then an application of cosmetics like foundation, lip color and cream rouge — and a wig. The company made $198,514 in sales its first year.
Although Ash may have seemed a pioneer, in many ways Mary Kay was a traditionalist company, whose philosophy was “God first, family second, career third.” Saleswomen, official literature dictated, were working to provide themselves with treats rather than necessities so as not to threaten their breadwinner husbands.
And yet, they were also encouraged to sell sell sell. Golden Goblet pendants were awarded for major orders. After the company started using custom pink Peterbilt trucks for shipping, it began commissioning those Cadillacs for top consultants. (Mary Kay preferred gifts to cash bonuses, lest women save the money to spend on practical things rather than the licensed frivolities.) The Cadillacs, always driven on company leases, would become industry legend and part of American pop culture lore. “Never to be run-down, repainted or resold, the cars would double as shining pink advertisements for her selling opportunity,” Gavenas writes.
The woman herself was iconic, too. While Ash was a product of the Depression, she was also undeniably over-the-top. She wore white suits with leopard trim, lived in a custom Frank L. Meier house and brought her poodle to the office.
Mary Kay went public in 1968, making her the first woman to chair a company on the New York Stock Exchange. By the 1990s, the Mary Kay headquarters near Dallas was almost 600,000 square feet. They commissioned a hagiographic company biopic; there was a Mary Kay consultant Barbie; they were making $1 billion in wholesale. When she died, in 2001, Ash was worth $98 million.
And yet, Gavenas cites that at the company’s height, in 1992, sales reps made on average just $2,400 per year.
Instead of so much time in the pink fantasia of Mary Kay, it would have been nice for a few detours showing how infrequently the opportunities the company sold were truly realized.
SELLING OPPORTUNITY: The Story of Mary Kay | By Mary Lisa Gavenas | Viking | 435 pp. | $35
Culture
Historical Fiction Books That Illustrate the Bonds Between Mother and Child
We often think of the past as if it were another world — and in some ways, it is. The politics, religion and social customs of other eras can be vastly different from our own. But one thing historians and historical fiction writers alike often notice is the constancy of human emotion. The righteous anger of a customer complaining about a Mesopotamian copper merchant in 1750 B.C. feels familiar. Tributes to beloved household pets from ancient Romans and Egyptians make us smile. And we are captivated by stories of love, betrayal and sacrifice from Homer to Shakespeare and beyond.
In literature, letters, tablets and even on coins, we find overwhelming evidence that people in the past felt the same emotions we do. Love, hate, fear, grief, joy: These feelings were as much a part of their lives as they are of our own. And they resonate especially acutely in the bond between mother and child. Here are eight historical novels that explore the meaning of motherhood across the centuries.
Culture
How ‘The Sheep Detectives’ Brought its Ovine Sleuths to Life
Sometime in the 2000s, the producer Lindsay Doran asked her doctor for a book recommendation. “I’m reading that book everybody’s reading,” the doctor replied. “You know, the one about the shepherd who’s murdered and the sheep solve the crime.”
Doran had not heard of the book, “Three Bags Full,” a best-selling novel by a German graduate student (“No one’s reading it,” she recalls responding, inaccurately), but she was struck by what sounded like an irresistible elevator pitch. “Everything came together for me in that one sentence,” she said. “The fact that it was sheep rather than some other animal felt so resonant.”
Doran spent years trying to extricate the book from a complicated rights situation, and years more turning it into a movie. The result, opening Friday, is “The Sheep Detectives,” which features Nicholas Braun and Emma Thompson as humans, and Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Patrick Stewart and others giving voice to C.G.I. sheep stirred from their customary ruminations by the death of their shepherd, George (Hugh Jackman).
The film, rated PG, is an Agatha Christie-lite mystery with eccentric suspects, a comically bumbling cop (Braun) and a passel of ovine investigators. It’s also a coming-of-age story about growing up and losing your innocence that might have a “Bambi”-like resonance for children. The movie’s sheep have a way of erasing unpleasant things from their minds — they believe, for instance, that instead of dying, they just turn into clouds — but learn that death is an inextricable part of life.
“In some ways, the most important character is Mopple, the sheep played by Chris O’Dowd,” the screenwriter, Craig Mazin, said in a video interview. “He has a defect — he does not know how to forget — and he’s been carrying his memories all alone.”
“Three Bags Full” is an adult novel that includes grown-up themes like drugs and suicide. In adapting it for a younger audience, Mazin toned down its darker elements, changed its ending, and — for help in writing about death — consulted a book by Fred Rogers, TV’s Mister Rogers, about how to talk to children about difficult subjects.
The journey from book to film has been long and circuitous. “Three Bags Full” was written by Leonie Swann, then a 20-something German doctoral student studying English literature. Distracting herself from her unwritten dissertation, on the topic of “the animal point of view in fiction,” she began a short story “playing around with the idea of sheep detectives,” she said. “And I realized it was more like a novel, and it wasn’t the worst novel I’d ever seen.”
Why sheep? “I wasn’t someone who was thinking about sheep all the time,” Swann, who lives in the English countryside and has a dog named Ezra Hound, said in a video interview. Yet they have always hovered on the periphery of her life.
There was a friendly sheep that she used to see on her way to school. There was an irate ram that once chased her through the streets of a Bavarian village. And there were thousands and thousands of sheep in the fields of Ireland, where she lived for a time. “There were so many of them, and you could tell there was a lot of personality behind them,” she said.
A book in which sheep are stirred to action had to be a mystery, she said, to motivate the main characters. “In a lot of other stories, you would have trouble making a sheep realize there’s a story there,” she said. “They would just keep grazing. But murder is an existential problem that speaks to sheep as well as humans.”
Swann (the name is a pseudonym; she has never publicly disclosed her real name) found a literary agent, Astrid Poppenhusen, who brought her manuscript to market. Published in 2005, the book was translated into 30 languages and ended up spending three and a half years on German best-seller lists. (The German title is “Glennkill,” after the village in which it takes place.) Other novels followed, including a sheep-centric sequel, “Big Bad Wool,” but Swann never finished her dissertation.
Doran, the producer, read the book — now published in the United States by Soho Press, along with four other Swann novels — soon after hearing about it. She was determined to make it into a movie. Whenever she told anyone about the idea, she said, she had them at “sheep.”
The director, Kyle Balda (whose credits include “Minions”), was so excited when he first read the script, in 2022, that “I immediately drove out to a sheep farm” near his house in Oregon, he said in a video interview. “Very instantly I could see the behavior of the sheep, their different personalities. I learned very quickly that there are more varieties of sheep than dogs.”
How to make the sheep look realistic, and how to strike the proper balance between their inherent sheep-iness and their human-esque emotions were important questions the filmmakers grappled with.
It was essential that “the sheep in this world are sheep” rather than humans in sheep’s clothing, Balda said. “It’s not the kind of story where they are partnered with humans and talking to each other.”
That means that like real sheep, the movie sheep have short attention spans. They’re afraid to cross the road. “They don’t drive cars; they don’t wear pants; they’re not joke characters saying things like, ‘This grass would taste better with a little ranch dressing,’” Doran said.
And whenever they speak, their words register to humans as bleating, the way the adult speech in “Peanuts” cartoons sounds like trombone-y gibberish to Charlie Brown and his friends.
Lily, the leader of the flock, is played by Julia Louis-Dreyfus. It is not her first time voicing an animal in a movie: She has played, among other creatures, an ant in “A Bug’s Life” and a horse in “Animal Farm.” “When I read the script, I thought, ‘Wow, this is so weird,’” she said in a video interview. “It’s not derivative of anything else.”
Lily is unquestionably not a person; among other things, like a real sheep, she has a relatively immobile face set off by lively ears. “But her journey is a human journey where she realizes certain things about life she didn’t understand,” Louis-Dreyfus said. “There’s also the question of being a leader, and how to do that when you’re questioning your own point of view.”
Nicholas Braun took easily to the role of Officer Tim, the inept constable charged with solving the shepherd’s murder.
“The part was a little Greg-adjacent in the beginning, and I don’t really want to play too many Gregs,” Braun said via video, referring to Cousin Greg, his hapless punching bag of a character in the TV drama “Succession.”
“I’m post-Greg,” he said.
It takes Officer Tim some time to notice that the neighborhood sheep might be actively helping him tackle the case. But Braun said that unlike Greg, who is stuck in perpetual ineptitude, Tim gets to grow into a braver and more assertive person, a take-charge romantic hero — much the way the sheep are forced into action from their default position of “just forgetting about it and moving on and going back to eating grass,” he said.
Braun mused for a bit about other potential animal detectives — horses, say, or cows — but concluded that the sheep in the film were just right for the job. He predicted that the movie would change people’s perception of sheep, much the way “Toy Story” made them “look at their toys, or their kids’ toys, differently.”
“I don’t think people are going to be eating as much lamb after this,” he said.,
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