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College football Week 11 oddly specific predictions: Down go the Hoosiers!
Picking Penn State to lose to Ohio State does not deserve a victory lap. Losing big games is what the Nittany Lions do.
Like James Franklin, I deserved to get booed off the field last week after posting an embarrassing 4-5 record picking up straight-up winners. My 59-31 overall record for the season feels especially hollow when I’ve missed on four consecutive upset alerts to fall to 3-6 when sounding the alarm.
We’ll get to my hits and misses below, but first, here are this week’s picks. There are only two Top 25 matchups, but plenty of other intriguing games as conference races narrow.
Most passing yards
The one prediction I nailed last week was calling for Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart to lead all FBS passers in yards. This week, the numbers are screaming to go with Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders, one of eight quarterbacks averaging more than 300 passing yards a game.
Travis Hunter went on Shedeur Sanders Podcast 🔥
Shedeur : “If I’m playing like you I’m talking crazy”
Travis : “I just hate when people say I’m not top 5 at Receiver top 5 at DB”
🎥 : @ShedeurSanders @TravisHunterJr pic.twitter.com/08WM84u5Pq
— We Coming 🦬 (@SkoBuffsGoBuffs) November 5, 2024
The Buffaloes are 3.5-point favorites at Texas Tech, which ranks 133rd in passing defense but is coming off its biggest win of the season at Iowa State. Joey McGuire’s team is also 7-2 in November games under his watch. Sanders will throw for 450-plus yards, including 150 to Heisman hopeful Travis Hunter. But Texas Tech wins a high-scoring game on a late interception.
Most rushing yards
Tennessee’s Dylan Sampson is one of only eight running backs averaging more than 120 yards rushing per game. His 19 rushing touchdowns are tied with Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson and Army’s Bryson Daily for second behind Boise State star Ashton Jeanty’s 20.
This week, I’m riding with Sampson to lead all rushers in yards because he’s facing a Mississippi State defense that’s ranked 124th against the run. The seventh-ranked Volunteers are 23.5-point favorites at home and have won their last three games by six, seven and 10 points in comeback fashion. This week, it will be a little easier. Sampson runs for a season-high 200-plus yards and three touchdowns and Tennessee wins by three scores.
Most receiving yards
FIU’s Eric Rivers led all receivers last week with 295 yards and three touchdowns in a win over New Mexico State. This week, I’m going with another receiver from the same area code to rack up the most yards: Miami’s Xavier Restrepo, who became the Hurricanes’ all-time leading receiver in last week’s come-from-behind win over Duke.
Fourth-ranked Miami is an 11.5-point favorite at Georgia Tech, which handed the Canes a devastating loss last season despite a career-high 12 catches from Restrepo. Restrepo gets revenge, connecting with Cam Ward 12 times for 200-plus yards in a 10-point Miami win in Atlanta.
Five big games
No. 3 Georgia (-2.5) at No. 16 Ole Miss
The Bulldogs have won 11 of the last 12 meetings with the Rebels, including last year’s 52-17 thrashing in Athens. Yet, there are reasons why the spread entering this one is less than a field goal: Carson Beck’s 11 interceptions and Ole Miss’ ability to post a gaudy stat line.
Dart’s 515 passing yards and six TDs last week against Arkansas, with a breakout performance from Jordan Watkins, provide more reason for me to stick with my midseason prediction. That is Georgia finishes 10-2, misses the SEC title game and still makes noise in the College Football Playoff. Give me Ole Miss on a late TD pass from Dart.
No. 11 Alabama (-3) at No. 15 LSU
The Crimson Tide are 29-10-2 all-time at Tiger Stadium and 3-1 against Brian Kelly at LSU. Kelly’s one win came the last time the Tide visited Baton Rouge. Both teams are coming off idle weeks, but with different results — Alabama crushed Missouri while LSU folded late at Texas A&M.
So, I’m not going against my midseason script. Alabama will beat LSU to stay on track to make the Playoff and Jalen Milroe will once again carve up the Tigers with his feet as he did a year ago. This time, he’ll run for 150 yards and two scores in a 10-point win.
Jalen Milroe highlights vs LSU 🔥pic.twitter.com/w0pPrlbAvj https://t.co/f4tk6CXW4h
— 𝙏𝙝𝙤𝙢𝙖𝙨 🎃 (@ThomasWrrld) July 16, 2024
No. 9 BYU (-5) at Utah
Few envisioned BYU being the top-10 team contending for a conference championship and Playoff berth when these two rivals met. But the Cougars very much deserve credit for where they are with impressive wins against two ranked teams — SMU and Kansas State.
The hard part is trying to determine if the Utes can muster any offense after they’ve averaged only 12.5 points over their recent four-game losing streak. The guess here is they can’t. Utah will be held to under 300 yards for the third time this season and BYU wins by a touchdown.
No. 17 Iowa State (-3) at Kansas
The Big 12 feels a bit disrespected after seeing only one team in the top 16 of the CFP rankings. But Iowa State and Kansas State have no one to blame but themselves following head-scratching losses last weekend.
At the start of the season, Kansas was everyone’s dark horse to win the league, and now Lance Leipold’s team needs to win its last four games to qualify for a bowl. Jalon Daniels has not been good enough to this point and he’s going to struggle against a solid Cyclones defense. Iowa State bounces back and keeps its CFP hopes alive with a seven-point win at Arrowhead Stadium.
No. 25 Army (-5.5) at North Texas
The Black Knights are one of five remaining FBS unbeatens and are outscoring opponents by 26.6 points a game. The problem is six of those seven FBS wins are against teams with losing records. North Texas is by far Army’s toughest opponent yet. The Mean Green have the highest-scoring offense in the American Athletic Conference and lost shootouts at Memphis and Tulane in their previous two games.
Army coach Jeff Monken said Daily, his starting quarterback, could be back after missing the win over Air Force last week. I’m not sure it matters here. North Texas quarterback Chandler Morris puts up huge numbers every week and he will do so again (350-plus passing yards, three TDs) in an upset win.
Upset alert
Michigan at No. 8 Indiana (-14.5)
Indiana’s strength of schedule (82nd according to The Athletic’s Austin Mock) is why the undefeated Hoosiers were No. 8 in the first installment of the CFP rankings. They have two wins over P4 teams with winning records: Washington (5-4) and Nebraska (5-4).
You’d have to be a little crazy at this point to think Curt Cignetti’s team isn’t for real considering it is beating FBS opponents by 27.8 points a game. Picking against Indiana here is probably dumb considering Michigan’s offense stinks. But I said at midseason the Hoosiers wouldn’t make the Playoff, and I can’t chicken out now. Colston Loveland is the hero.
Week 10 report card
As mentioned before, my big victory last week was predicting Dart would lead all QBs in passing yards.
My pick to lead all rushers, Daily, was a late scratch from Army’s lineup against Air Force. The Black Knights still won, 20-3, as I said they would. They just didn’t cover the 22.5-point spread.
Outside of picking Ohio State to win, my only other victory was picking Oregon to handle its business and cover a 14.5-spread over Michigan with Dillon Gabriel throwing for more than 250 yards and three touchdowns. Gabriel threw for 294 yards and one touchdown, and the Ducks beat Michigan 38-17.
And now to a string of really bad predictions — and some accountability.
I picked Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan to lead all receivers in yardage in a Wildcats’ upset over UCF. McMillan finished with six catches for 84 yards and a touchdown, and UCF obliterated Arizona 56-12.
I said Iowa State would score late on a Rocco Becht touchdown to remain unbeaten against Texas Tech. Instead, Tahj Brooks scored with 20 seconds left to rob Becht of his heroics, and the Cyclones lost 23-22.
I had Clemson covering a 10.5-point spread against Louisville with Cade Klubnik (250-plus passing yards, two TDs) and Phil Mafah (100-plus rushing yards, two TDs) doing work. Klubnik threw for 228 yards and a score and Mafah ran for 171 yards and two scores. But Louisville beat Clemson by 12.
I said Marcel Reed’s rushing ability would be the difference in a big road win for Texas A&M at South Carolina. The Gamecocks outscored Texas A&M 24-0 in the second half and rolled to a 44-20 upset.
I said Pitt would pull off a road upset behind its opportunistic defense (three turnovers forced) at SMU. The Mustangs destroyed the Panthers 48-25.
(Photo of Kurtis Rourke: Jordon Kelly / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Where do you turn when you need advice? A chatbot? A life coach? A wise and trusted friend?
How about a poet? Poets may not be famous for making the best life choices, but because they subject the mess of human existence to the discipline of language, they can be as helpful as any therapist or mentor.
Good poets know the rules and when to break them, which is something they can teach the rest of us.
To wit:
Giving advice is a peculiar literary undertaking. It flourishes in certain popular genres — graduation speeches, newspaper columns, country and western songs and poems like this one — but what, in these contexts, is it really for?
I’m thinking of situations when you don’t urgently need help but nonetheless enjoy reading answers to questions you may not have thought to ask. What interests you isn’t the content of the advice — you could get all the life hacks you want from A.I. — so much as the voice of the person dispensing it.
Wendy Cope is an English poet, born in 1945, who has been a fixture of her country’s literary scene since the 1980s. More recently, her short, buoyant poem “The Orange” has been widely memed online, bringing her to the attention of new readers beyond Britain.
Cope favors rhyme, meter, brisk jokes and tart aperçus. She addresses romance, friendship and the petty absurdities of modern life with disarming good humor. The last line of “The Orange” is “I love you. I’m glad I exist.” Somehow she makes it the opposite of cringe.
This isn’t the kind of poetry you would describe as “confessional.” And yet …
Question 1/7
Stop, if the car is going “clunk”
Or if the sun has made you blind.
Don’t answer e–mails when you’re drunk.
Tap a word above to fill in the highlighted blank.Want to learn this poem by heart? We’ll help.
Fill in the missing words below. You can always refer to the reading by A.O. Scott and full
text above.Let’s start with the first stanza.
A strong sense of place can deeply influence a story, and in some cases, the setting can even feel like a character itself. This week’s literary geography quiz highlights places where authors were born (or lived) that later became locations in their books. To play, just make your selection in the multiple-choice list and the correct answer will be revealed. At the end of the quiz, you’ll find links to the works if you’d like to do further reading.
AMERICA, U.S.A.: How Race Shadows the Nation’s Anniversaries, by Eddie S. Glaude Jr.
For those of us in the national memory-keeping business, anniversaries hold near-totemic power. Satisfyingly round units of time, ideally bearing fancy, Latin-derived names, serve as the overburdened pegs on which to hang think pieces and museum exhibits, revisionist documentaries and maudlin public ceremonies. The arbitrary nature of such occasions is precisely what gives them their charge, inviting us to set aside complacency and submit to a comprehensive check-in.
In his new book, “America, U.S.A.,” Eddie S. Glaude Jr. presents an intriguing variation on the genre, seeing the country’s 250th birthday as an anniversary of anniversaries: 50 years since the malaise-ridden, schlock-heavy Bicentennial. A century since the subdued Prohibition-era Sesquicentennial. A century and a half since telegraphed reports of George Armstrong Custer’s defeat by the Lakota and Cheyenne at Little Bighorn rudely interrupted the Gilded Age Republic’s 100th birthday party.
If an anniversary offers a snapshot of a moment, the core of Glaude’s book is an old-timey photo album, a collection of notable episodes from earlier national reckonings, long-ago glances in the mirror. An estimable scholar of Black history, politics and religion at Princeton — best known for “Begin Again,” his 2020 meditation on James Baldwin’s relevance for our times — Glaude focuses, as his subtitle puts it, on “how race shadows the nation’s anniversaries.”
Such celebrations, he contends, have never really been the moments for honest self-reflection they are often advertised to be. Instead, the nation usually shatters the mirror, refusing to accept what it prefers not to see. “American anniversaries are often moments to turn a blind eye to the evils of the past and the present,” Glaude writes, “to suppress the fact of America’s divided soul.”
It’s a clever concept, and, needless to say, perfectly timed. Last year, Glaude notes, the Trump administration executed a hostile takeover of the government’s studiously bipartisan 250th anniversary planning. It is now preparing a program that is certain to conceal more than it reveals about the country ostensibly being celebrated.
Glaude, in no mood for celebration, argues that such omissions and evasions also defined commemorations in the past. In 1875, Frederick Douglass predicted “one grand Centennial hosannah of peace and good will to all the white race of this country.” He was right: The nation reached 100 years old at a crucial moment in the post-Civil War fight over racial equality, with white Northerners ready to give up on Southern Reconstruction. The occasion would help the once-warring sections to reunite around a shared commitment to white supremacy. On May 10, 1876, at the opening of the Centennial Exposition in Philadelphia, the police tried to bar Douglass from the grandstand, until a white politician vouched for him.
The 150th anniversary came soon after a resurgent Ku Klux Klan successfully pushed for a restrictive immigration law aimed at keeping America a “Nordic” nation. At the lavishly funded, lightly attended celebrations in Philadelphia, Black veterans of World War I were excluded from marching in the opening parade. A writer with The Associated Negro Press wondered “what was in the breast of those black men who fought to make America safe for Democracy and on Monday stood on the sidelines, forgotten, as the Nordic strode by in all his vain pride.”
By 1976, when the nation marked its Bicentennial, the violence of the ’60s had destroyed any semblance of consensus. Vietnam and Watergate had eroded trust in the government. The commission initially tasked with organizing the anniversary was disbanded amid reports of corruption. Corporations filled the vacuum, Glaude explains, with “star-spangled whoopee cushions; patriotic toilet seats; Liberty hamburgers; red, white and blue beer cans.” The author, around 8 years old at the time, dimly remembers donning a pair of tricolor trousers.
A half-century later, Glaude is refreshingly honest about the depths of his despair. “I do not love America, and never have, especially now,” he writes in one of the more startling opening sentences I’ve read in some time. He dismisses this year’s Semiquincentennial as reaching back “to a storybook America that requires either the banishment of Black people from view or the reduction of our role in the country’s history, so as to affirm America’s ongoing quest to be a more perfect union.”
Undoubtedly true. But Trump doesn’t own the country, at least not yet, nor the 250th anniversary of one of the most radically liberatory and confusingly contradictory events in world history — an inspiration, as Glaude shows, even to critical observers of the American experiment, like Douglass. Far from the revanchist MAGA-palooza in Washington, I suspect this summer’s unasked-for invitation to national soul-searching may surprise us yet.
Despite his despair, Glaude concludes that “the past still offers resources for us to freedom-dream.” So, too, does this book.
AMERICA, U.S.A.: How Race Shadows the Nation’s Anniversaries | By Eddie S. Glaude Jr. | Crown | 270 pp. | $31
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