Crypto
What is bitcoin halving and when will the next one be?
Bitcoin is surging after a rollercoaster few months after Donald Trump’s speech at a major cryptocurrency summit.
Trump spoke at the Digital Asset Summit (DAS) in New York on Thursday and bitcoin, by far the largest cryptocurrency, recovered much of its losses from recent months.
Bitcoin went over $100,000 (£77,200) for the first time in December 2024 but has since crashed down to $79,000 (£61,000) amid wider fears of economic turmoil caused by the Trump administration.
But ahead of Trump’s speech, the currency climbed back up to $86,000 (£66,400).
Speaking via video link from the White House Trump promised to make the US a bitcoin “superpower” and the “undisputed crypto capital of the world.”
He highlighted his administration’s actions on loosening regulations on the crypto industry, including ending what he called “operation chokepoint 2.0”, which saw federal agencies encouraging banks to not operate in risky sectors, particularly the crypto industry.
Trump said the operation went too far and acted as a form of “lawfare” against the industry.
The president has also instituted the US government’s Crypto Federal Reserve which will hold certain cryptocurrencies when they are acquired by state operations rather than sell them.
Despite the losses of recent months bitcoin has been on an incredible run in recent years after hitting a low of $16,000 (£12,300) in 2022. A lot of the recent gains have been associated with an event known as the Bitcoin halving that happened on 20 April 2024.
Halving is an event automatically triggered by the bitcoin network, which is designed to prevent inflation in the cryptocurrency but it can also trigger large price rises.
The halving happens roughly every four years and after each halving the following one to two years often see bitcoin’s price explode.
Aaron Peak, personal finance expert at credit reference company CredAbility, said: “Bitcoin is notoriously volatile: prices can surge or crash unpredictably, so investors should always be cautious.
“Bitcoin’s price has been on a rollercoaster recently, and we’ve seen some major price swings in recent months.”
What is Bitcoin halving?
Bitcoin halving reduces the rewards of mining the cryptocurrency by 50%.
Crypto miners use high-end computing rigs to perform calculations and are rewarded with bitcoin but after each halving, the reward decreases.
Miners complete calculations required to verify transactions, using computers to make guesses to solve the puzzle and the first to solve it adds a new block to the blockchain – a digital ledger that records and verifies transactions across a network of computers.
The dates of the halvings are not set, rather they occur every 210,000 blocks that are mined.
Aaron Peak, personal finance expert at credit reference company CredAbility said: “Right now, miners – who verify bitcoin transactions – earn 6.25 bitcoins for each new block they add to the blockchain.”
“After the next halving, their reward will drop to 3.125 bitcoins. This reduces the supply of new coins, which can affect bitcoin’s price.”
Why does it matter?
Bitcoin halving performs several important functions, restricting supply and limiting inflation, which helps to maintain the cryptocurrency’s value.
Peak explains: “Halving is important because it slows down how quickly new bitcoins are created. Historically, bitcoin halving has led to price increases. When fewer new bitcoins enter the market, but demand stays the same (or grows), the price often rises.
“It’s a bit like gold, if mining gold became twice as hard overnight, but people still wanted it, the price would likely go up. However, past performance doesn’t guarantee the same outcome every time, so there are no certainties.”
When is the next Bitcoin halving?
The next bitcoin halving event is expected to happen in 2028, but it all depends on how quickly miners create new blocks, Peak explained.
Peak said: “It will happen after another 210,000 blocks have been added to the blockchain, which usually takes around four years.
“This happens because bitcoin has a fixed supply – only 21 million bitcoins will ever exist. The process is built into bitcoin’s code to control inflation, a bit like how central banks manage the money supply, except no one can change bitcoin’s rules.”
Bitcoin halvings are expected to continue until 2040.
Crypto
IMF Warns Nigeria’s Stablecoin Boom Could Weaken Local Currency Demand
Key Takeaways
- On June 16, the IMF reported Nigeria drew $59 billion in crypto inflows, capturing 60% of regional stablecoins.
- High 9% remittance costs and a volatile naira drove Nigerian businesses to adopt US dollar- stablecoins.
- The Nigerian Senate sent a new crypto licensing bill to the Committee on Capital Market for a 4-week review.
IMF: Stablecoins Transform From Niche Market to Major Payment Route
Nigerians are increasingly turning to U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoins to move money across borders as small businesses and households search for cheaper and faster alternatives to traditional banking channels, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said June 16.
Previously seen as a niche financial market, crypto has evolved into a dominant payments corridor in Nigeria. The country pulled in roughly $59 billion in crypto inflows between July 2023 and June 2024, securing about 60% of all stablecoin traffic in sub-Saharan Africa, IMF data shows.
The surging adoption comes as the Nigerian government pivots toward formalizing the digital asset sector. The Nigerian Senate recently advanced a comprehensive cryptocurrency regulation bill to its Committee on Capital Market for a four-week review phase. The bill, which passed a crucial second reading following a majority voice vote, aims to establish mandatory licensing for digital asset exchanges and introduce investor protections.
For years, regulatory uncertainty has clouded the country’s digital asset market. Local industry advocates point to a restrictive 2021 central bank directive under former Central Bank of Nigeria Governor Godwin Emefiele as a measure that drove transactions into opaque, black-market environments and slowed institutional growth. Lawmakers sponsoring the new legislation argue that formal regulation is now vital to protect consumers and prevent Nigeria from falling behind regional peers like South Africa and Kenya.
The economic drivers behind the shift are stark. Traditional cross-border remittances to sub-Saharan Africa are among the most expensive in the world, averaging about 9% of a $200 transaction value compared to a global average of 6%, according to World Bank data cited by the IMF.
By contrast, stablecoins allow users to transfer funds near-instantly via smartphones and digital wallets at a fraction of the cost. Beyond cost-cutting, the digital tokens offer local users a way to store value outside of the volatile Nigerian naira, effectively acting as a bridge between cryptocurrency markets and everyday commerce.
However, the IMF warned that the rapid rise of dollar-linked tokens introduces significant policy headaches for West Africa’s largest economy. Widespread displacement of the local currency could weaken the central bank’s monetary policy levers by reducing domestic demand for the naira.
Furthermore, migrating financial transactions to private digital wallets complicates regulatory oversight, raising the risk of illicit financial flows and terrorism financing—the exact vulnerabilities the Senate’s newly proposed regulatory framework is under pressure to address.
Crypto
Crypto Clipper uses Tor and worm-like propagation for persistence and control | Microsoft Security Blog
Microsoft Threat Intelligence and Microsoft Defender Experts identified a Windows-based cryptocurrency clipper that has affected users since February of 2026. Clipper malware relies on stealing clipboard data and parsing it for valuable assets.
The clipper in this campaign relies on Windows Script Host and ActiveX-driven logic to launch a bundled Tor proxy and poll a hidden-service C2 server. It carries out high-frequency clipboard theft, screenshot exfiltration, and wallet-address substitution.
The execution of this clipper is notable because it does not depend on a traditional installer or exposed IP-based C2 infrastructure. Instead, it deploys a portable Tor client, routes traffic through a local SOCKS5 proxy, and blends data theft with remote code execution, turning a financially motivated stealer into a lightweight backdoor.
For defenders, the strongest signals are behavioral: script interpreters spawning suspicious child processes, localhost:9050 proxy usage, screen-capture commands in PowerShell, and signs of clipboard inspection or crypto-address replacement.
Microsoft Defender for Endpoint detects multiple components of this threat such as Suspicious JavaScript process and Possible data exfiltration using Curl. Additionally, Microsoft Defender Antivirus detects this crypto clipper as Trojan: Win32/CryptoBandits.A.
Attack chain overview
Since February 2026, malicious shortcut (.lnk) payloads have infected devices with a cryptocurrency clipper. This malware comprises two components that it deploys on the compromised system: a worm component that ensures propagation and a clipper/stealer component that harvests and exfiltrates cryptocurrency wallet information.
The worm functionality ensures propagation by creating additional malicious shortcuts of legitimate files it identifies on the device. It also delivers file-based payloads and excludes them from Defender scanning. It deploys scheduled tasks for execution and persistence for both the worm component and the stealer component. Figure 1 presents a high-level execution flow of the two components.
The clipper runs as a script-based payload that interacts with the operating system through WScript and ActiveXObject. It includes an anti-analysis check that queries running processes and exits if Task Manager is detected. If the environment passes this gate, the malware launches a renamed Tor binary named ugate.exe in a hidden window, waits about 60 seconds for Tor to bootstrap, generates a victim GUID, and registers the infected device with a hidden-service C2.
After registration, the malware enters a continuous loop. It polls the C2 for instructions and monitors the clipboard roughly every 500 milliseconds, extracting seed phrases and private keys that match wallet-related patterns. It also hijacks cryptocurrency addresses by replacing copied wallet values with attacker-controlled alternatives and uploads screenshots through Tor. If the C2 returns an EVAL response, the malware executes attacker-supplied code at runtime.
Behaviors and methodologies
Initial access
Initial access occurs from malicious .lnk files. In instances we analyzed, these .lnk shortcuts were distributed on USB storage devices. The .lnk shortcut stages a worm component in the form of an executable. The malicious script checks for an existing malicious payload and stops if the device is already infected. If the payload is not present, the malware fetches the payload from the C2 through Tor. The Figure below illustrates the functions that stage and decrypt the initial payload.

The .lnk payload scans the USB device for common document files like .doc, .xlsx, .pdf, hides the original files, and creates additional .lnk shortcut files with the same file names. The shortcut files are crafted with arguments to link to the worm payload. The end user is not aware that they are launching an executable when opening the .lnk files.

Execution
Once a user clicks on one of the shortcuts, the staged worm payload runs. It excludes staging folders and Windows binaries used in the execution of the stealer component. The malware then drops decrypted payloads, including two malicious JavaScript files, into the subfolder under the “C:UsersPublicDocuments” folder.
A five-character naming convention is used both for the subfolder and the scripts’ names.
The figure below illustrates an instance with files dropped under a ” C:UsersPublicDocumentsomoho” folder path:


The worm component also establishes persistence by creating two indefinite scheduled tasks: one responsible for spreading itself to a freshly inserted uncompromised USB storage device, and another for the stealer activity.
Defense evasion
The malware employs multi-layered obfuscation, with all components encrypted and only decrypted at runtime. Installation is handled by a Python script that is itself obfuscated using PyArmor and packaged into a standalone executable via PyInstaller. In addition, the two JavaScript payloads are each protected with dual-layer obfuscation, further increasing analysis complexity. This design significantly reduces static visibility while maintaining flexible runtime behavior.
The sample also incorporates a basic anti-analysis check by querying the Win32_Process WMI class and terminating execution if Task Manager is detected. Although simplistic, this mechanism can hinder manual inspection and slow initial triage efforts.
The bundled Tor client is central to the operation. By routing communication over localhost:9050 and resolving “.onion” destination domains inside Tor, the malware reduces DNS visibility, obscures the final C2 destination, and complicates destination-based blocking. This design gives the operator anonymity benefits while keeping the malware compact and self-contained.
Command and control
The command and control over a Tor-routed domain routes network traffic through local IP address 127.0.0.1 on port 9050. The tunneled domain appears in the initiating process command line. The C2 domains use the following endpoints and actions across different execution stages.
- C2 Domain:
.onion - Endpoints:
- /route.php : Beacon and command retrieval
- /recvf.php : File upload (screenshots)
- /stub.php: Payload download
- Communication:
- Protocol: HTTP over Tor (SOCKS5 proxy at localhost:9050)
- Method: curl with POST requests
- Authentication: GUID + GEIP (geolocation)
- Actions Sent to C2:
- GUID : Heartbeat beacon
- SEED : Exfiltrated seed phrase
- PKEY : Exfiltrated private key
- REPL : Address replacement notification
- GOOD : (legacy/fallback action)
- Commands from C2:
- GUID : Acknowledge/refresh victim GUID
- EVAL : Execute arbitrary JScript code (remote code execution)

A file named “cfile” is created on the infected system as an output for payload hosted on the C2 domain.
The malware sample we analyzed also provided a function called checkC2Command. The function has an EVAL method, which would allow any payload placed in the cfile to be executed on the victim’s system.


Collection
Seed
Clipboard theft focuses on high-value financial artifacts. The malware detects 12 or 24-word BIP39 seed phrases in clipboard data. It saves the seed to local file (GOOD path) as a backup and exfiltrates it to the C2 domain via Tor. It retries network transmission until it is acknowledged and deletes local backup after successful transmission. It also takes five screenshots (ten seconds apart) and uploads them asynchronously. The screenshots help the threat actor gain additional context on the end user’s wallet and balances.
The crypto clipper also detects cryptocurrency keys for both Ethereum and Bitcoin WIF. Once the captured keys are saved and exfiltrated, the malware captures screenshots of the user’s screen for a full context. The captured values are validated against a word list.
Address replacement
The stealer also probes for cryptocurrency addresses and replaces them with attacker’s addresses. The malware checks that the address has alphanumeric values.
- For a Bitcoin legacy address which starts with “1” and has a length of 32-36 values, the address is replaced with an address that matches the first two characters.
- For a Bitcoin P2SH address which starts with a “3” and has a length of 32-36 values, the stealer replaces the address with one matching the original address on the first two characters.
- For a Bitcoin taproot address which starts with “bc1p” and has a length of 40-64 characters, the stealer replaces it with one matching the last character.
- For a Bitcoin Bech32 address which starts with “bc1q” and has a length of 40-64 characters, the stealer replaces only the last character.
- For a Tron address which starts with “T” and has exactly 34 characters, the stealer replaces the address with one that matches the first two characters.
- For a Monero address which starts with a “4” or a “8” and has exactly 95 characters, the stealer replaces the address with a single address.
The following shows an example of address replacement:

This malware family shows how lightweight, script-based stealers can deliver outsized impact when paired with anonymized communications and runtime tasking. The combination of Tor-routed C2, clipboard targeting, screenshot capture, and remote code execution gives attackers both immediate monetization paths and continued control over compromised devices.
Organizations should focus on hardening script execution paths, monitoring local SOCKS proxy abuse, and using behavioral hunting to connect script activity with network, clipboard, and process signals. That combination offers the best chance of surfacing this class of threat before financial loss or broader follow-on activity occurs.
Mitigation and protection guidance
Defenders should prioritize behavioral detections over static signatures. Investigate systems where WScript, CScript, or related script engines launch curl, cmd.exe, PowerShell, or unexpected executables. localhost:9050 network activity, especially when coupled with suspicious scripting behavior, is also valuable context for triage.
Where operationally feasible, reduce abuse of script-based interpreters and review Attack Surface Reduction rules that block obfuscated scripts and suspicious child-process chains. Review detections for PowerShell-based screen capture and examine devices for indicators of clipboard inspection or wallet-address replacement.
Recommended actions
- Disable AutoRun/AutoPlay for all removable media
- Block .lnk execution from removable drives via GPO
- Restrict unnecessary use of wscript.exe, cscript.exe, and similar script hosts where possible.
- Review and enable relevant Attack Surface Reduction rules, especially those focused on obfuscated script execution and suspicious child-process behavior.
- Investigate script-to-network chains involving curl, PowerShell, or cmd.exe.
- Hunt for local SOCKS5 proxy activity on localhost:9050.
- Review clipboard-related and screen-capture behaviors on devices handling sensitive financial workflows.
Microsoft Defender XDR detections
Microsoft Defender XDR customers can refer to the list of applicable detections below. Microsoft Defender XDR coordinates detection, prevention, investigation, and response across endpoints, identities, email, and apps to provide integrated protection against attacks like the threat discussed in this blog.
Customers with provisioned access can also use Microsoft Security Copilot in Microsoft Defender to investigate and respond to incidents, hunt for threats, and protect their organization with relevant threat intelligence.
Tactic
Observed activity
Microsoft Defender coverage
Initial Access/Execution
Malicious .lnk delivers malware components
EDR Suspicious behavior by cmd.exe was observedSuspicious Python library load
Execution
WScript / ActiveXObject execution and runtime tasking
EDR Suspicious JavaScript processSuspicious Python library loadSuspicious behavior by cmd.exe was observed AV Contebrew malware was prevented Behavior:Win64/PyPowJs.STA
Discovery
Task Manager check used as an anti-analysis gate
Persistence
Scheduled tasks are created to run the JavaScript payload wrapped in a XML file.
EDR Suspicious Task Scheduler activity
Defense Evasion
Shuffled strings and decoder functions conceal commands and APIs Task Manager if detected, the malware execution is halted
Behavior:Win64/ProcessExclusion.ST; Behavior:Win64/PathExclusion.STA Behavior:Win64/PathExclusion.STB
Collection
Clipboard theft targets seed phrases, keys, and wallet addresses PowerShell screenshot capture supports operational visibility
AV:
Trojan:Win32/CryptoBandits.A Trojan:Win32/CryptoBandits.B Trojan:JS/CryptoBandits.A Trojan:JS/CryptoBandits.B
Command and Control
Traffic routed through Tor via local SOCKS5 proxying
EDR Possible data exfiltration using curlBehavior:Win64/CurlOnion.STA
Exfiltration
Data posted using Curl through Tor via local SOCKS5 proxying
EDR Possible data exfiltration using curl
Microsoft Security Copilot
Security Copilot customers can use the standalone experience to create their own prompts or run the following prebuilt promptbooks to automate incident response or investigation tasks related to this threat:
- Incident investigation
- Microsoft User analysis
- Threat actor profile
- Threat Intelligence 360 report based on MDTI article
- Vulnerability impact assessment
Note that some promptbooks require access to plugins for Microsoft products such as Microsoft Defender XDR or Microsoft Sentinel.
Threat intelligence reports
Microsoft customers can use the following reports in Microsoft products to get the most up-to-date information about the threat actor, malicious activity, and techniques discussed in this blog. These reports provide intelligence, protection information, and recommended actions to prevent, mitigate, or respond to associated threats found in customer environments.
Advanced hunting
Execution launched from scheduled tasks
DeviceProcessEvents
| where FileName =="schtasks.exe"
| where ProcessCommandLine matches regex
@"(?i)schtaskss+/creates+/tns+[a-z]{4,6}s+/xmls+C:\Users\Public\Documents\[a-z]{4,6}\[a-z]{4,6}.xmls+/f"
Local Tor proxy activity (localhost:9050)
DeviceNetworkEvents
| where ActionType =="ConnectionSuccess"
| where InitiatingProcessCommandLine has_all ("curl","socks5-hostname",".onion")
Tor-routed curl execution
DeviceProcessEvents
| where FileName =~ "curl.exe"
| where ProcessCommandLine has_all ("--socks5-hostname", "localhost:9050")
| project Timestamp, DeviceName, InitiatingProcessFileName, ProcessCommandLine
MITRE ATT&CK Techniques observed
This threat has exhibited use of the following attack techniques. For standard industry documentation about these techniques, refer to the MITRE ATT&CK framework.
Initial Access
- T1091 Replication Through Removable Media
Execution
- T1059 Command and Scripting Interpreter | EVAL-driven remote code execution from server tasking
Discovery
- T1057 Process Discovery | Task Manager check used as an anti-analysis gate
Persistence
- T1053.005 Scheduled Task/Job | Scheduled Task
Defense evasion
- T1027 | Shuffled strings and decoder functions conceal commands and APIs
Collection
- T1115 Clipboard Data | Clipboard theft targets seed phrases, keys, and wallet addresses
- T1113 Screen Capture | PowerShell screenshot capture supports operational visibility
Command and Control
- T1090 Proxy | Traffic routed through Tor via local SOCKS5 proxying
Exfiltration
- T1048.002 Exfiltration Over Alternative Protocol
Indicators of compromise (IOC)
| Indicator | Type | Description |
| 7630debd35cac6b7d58c4427695579b3e3a8b1cc462f523234cd6c698882a68c | SHA-256 | Crypto Clipper Worm |
| a7abf1d9d6686af1cefcd60b17a312e7eb8cfe267def1ec34aeab6128c811630 | SHA-256 | Crypto Clipper Worm |
| 23c1e673f315dafa14b73034a90dd3d393a984451ff6601b8be8142be6487b43 | SHA-256 | Crypto Clipper Worm |
| cf9fc891ea5ca5ecd8113ef3e69f6f52ff538b6cccbdaa9559106fc72bc6da30 | SHA-256 | Crypto Clipper Worm |
| 100407796028bf3649752d9d2a67a0e4394d752eb8de86daa42920e814f3fae8 | SHA-256 | Crypto Clipper Worm |
| d14b80cbd1a19d4ad0473a0661297f8fdf598e81ff6c4ab24e212dcad2e54b3f | SHA-256 | Crypto Clipper Worm |
| 9d90f54ae36c6c5435d5b8bed40faf54cc91f6db28574a6310b5ffaeb0362e96 | SHA-256 | Crypto Clipper Worm |
| 67fc5cf395e28294bbb91ed0e954fdf2e80ebd9119022a115a42c286dc8bacf5 | SHA-256 | Crypto Clipper Worm |
| 0020d23b0f9c5e6851a7f737af73fd143175ee47054931166369edd93338538a | SHA-256 | Crypto Clipper Worm |
| 35a6bc44b176a050fd6824904b7604f0f45b0fdfa26bf9500b9e05973b387cfd | SHA-256 | Crypto Clipper Worm |
| c824630154ac4fdfce94ded01f037c305eab51e9bef3f493c60ff3184a640502 | SHA-256 | Crypto Clipper Worm |
| d43bf94f0cb0ab97c88113b7e07d1a4024d1610617b5ad05882b1dbab89e15ba | SHA-256 | Crypto Clipper Worm |
| b2777b73a4c33ac6a409d475057843be6b5d32262ef28a1f1ff5bb52e3834c5f | SHA-256 | Crypto Clipper Worm |
| 7787a9a7d8ae393aa32f257d083903c4dc9b97a1e5b0458c4cd480d4f3cb5b05 | SHA-256 | Crypto Clipper Worm |
| f3b54984caca95fd496bcfe5d7db1611b08d2f5b7d250b43b430e5d76393f9e0 | SHA-256 | Crypto Clipper Worm |
| 20db98af3037b197c8a846dbf17b87fc6f049c3e0d9a188f9b9a74d3916dd5e1 | SHA-256 | Crypto Clipper Worm |
| ugate.exe | Filename | Portable Tor binary |
| cgky6bn6ux5wvlybtmm3z255igt52ljml2ngnc5qp3cnw5jlglamisad.onion | Domain | C2 domain |
| gfoqsewps57xcyxoedle2gd53o6jne6y5nq5eh25muksqwzutzq7b3ad.onion | Domain | C2 domain |
| he5vnov645txpcv57el2theky2elesn24ebvgwfoewlpftksxp4fnxad.onion | Domain | C2 domain |
| lyhizqy2js2eh6ufngkbzntouiikdek5zsdj3qwa22b4z6knpqorgiad.onion | Domain | C2 domain |
| j3bv7g27oramhbxxuv6gl3dcyfmf44qnvju3offdyrap7hurfprq74qd.onion | Domain | C2 domain |
| shinypogk4jjniry5qi7247tznop6mxdrdte2k6pdu5cyo43vdzmrwid.onion | Domain | C2 domain |
| 7goms4byw26kkbaanz5a5u5234gusot7rp5imzc3ozh66wwcvmcudjid.onion | Domain | C2 domain |
| facebookwkhpilnemxj7asaniu7vnjjbiltxjqhye3mhbshg7kx5tfyd.onion | Domain | C2 domain |
| wt26llpl5k6gok3vnaxmucwgzv2wk3l7nuibbh25clghrtus3p5ctsid.onion | Domain | C2 domain |
| ijzn3sicrcy7guixkzjkib4ukbiilwc3xhnmby4mcbccnsd7j2rekvqd.onion | Domain | C2 domain |
References
Learn more
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To hear stories and insights from the Microsoft Threat Intelligence community about the ever-evolving threat landscape, listen to the Microsoft Threat Intelligence podcast.
Review our documentation to learn more about our real-time protection capabilities and see how to enable them within your organization.
Crypto
SpaceX Could Enter Major Index Funds Within Weeks After Trillion-Dollar IPO
Key Takeaways
- SpaceX could join major indexes within weeks of its Nasdaq debut.
- Only about 8% of SpaceX shares are currently tradeable, limiting initial index weightings.
- Broader index exposure could build well before SpaceX becomes eligible for the S&P 500.
Fast-Entry Rules Could Put SpaceX Into Millions of Investor Portfolios
Millions of investors may soon find SpaceX (Nasdaq: SPCX) inside funds they already own, according to James Flintoft, head of investment solutions at AJ Bell. The company’s Nasdaq debut has opened fast-entry routes into several major indexes, while S&P 500 funds remain tied to a longer eligibility schedule.
SpaceX began trading at $135 per share after raising more than $85 billion, making it the largest IPO on record. Its valuation later surpassed $2 trillion, placing the company among the most valuable publicly listed businesses in global markets.
A company of that size can qualify for major benchmarks quickly, but passive investors will not all receive exposure at the same time. The timing depends on the index behind each fund, including Nasdaq-100 products, MSCI global trackers, FTSE Russell funds, and CRSP-based portfolios, whose indexes underpin many Vanguard U.S. index funds, alongside S&P 500 trackers.
AJ Bell, a U.K. investment platform offering individual savings accounts (ISAs), pensions, and dealing accounts, said the listing raises important questions for passive investors. Flintoft said:
“The first practically important question for investors using index or passive strategies in their portfolios is not whether SpaceX is a good investment – it is will you hold it, where and when?”
Nasdaq has already created a faster route for large IPOs. The exchange’s May 1, 2026, methodology update allows newly listed companies ranked among the top 40 by market capitalization to enter the Nasdaq-100 within 15 trading days. Flintoft stated, “while SpaceX’s shares listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange, they will take slightly longer to join the Nasdaq-100 index.”
Those rules explain why SpaceX could appear quickly in several fund families. Nasdaq-100 trackers can use Nasdaq’s 15-trading-day window, FTSE Russell products can use the fifth-trading-day process, and MSCI-linked funds can apply MSCI’s large-IPO framework.
S&P 500 Funds Remain on a Different Timeline
FTSE Russell has also moved toward faster IPO inclusion. On May 26, 2026, the index provider said eligible large IPOs can enter Russell U.S. indexes after the fifth trading day, using first-day free float, following a February market consultation.
MSCI provides another route into global index funds. Its Global Investable Market Indexes have used fast-track rules for large IPOs since 2007, covering benchmarks tied to MSCI World, MSCI ACWI, MSCI Emerging Markets, and MSCI EAFE products.
Flintoft explained:
“If your portfolios include Nasdaq-100 trackers, FTSE Russell-based products, MSCI World or MSCI All Country funds, those products will acquire exposure within weeks of listing.”
“The initial weighting will be measured in basis points given the constrained free float, but as lockup tranches release over the following six months, the weighting will grow – depending on how the share price performs,” he further shared.
S&P 500 funds remain on a different timeline. Flintoft noted that S&P Dow Jones Indices confirmed June 4 that companies must trade publicly for at least 12 months and be profitable under U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles, the accounting standards used in corporate financial reporting. SpaceX has yet to meet either requirement, placing potential S&P 500 inclusion no earlier than mid-2027.
The company reported a $4.94 billion net loss in 2025, compared with a $791 million profit in 2024, while revenue rose 33% to $18.67 billion. It also recorded a $4.3 billion loss in the first quarter of 2026.
The first portfolio changes should be small, with Flintoft citing Bloomberg data showing about 8% of SpaceX shares are currently tradeable. As additional shares are released after the first quarterly earnings report and at later lockup dates, index weightings could increase over time. SpaceX could appear in Nasdaq-100, FTSE Russell, MSCI, and CRSP-linked products over the coming weeks as those indexes follow their respective inclusion schedules, while S&P 500 trackers remain subject to existing eligibility rules.
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