The adjustment landed at block height 957600. Difficulty moved from 133.87 trillion to 127.17 trillion, a decline of roughly 6.70 trillion. The change took effect at 4:09:11 p.m., based on the block timestamp. The prior epoch ran about 14 days, 18 hours, and 9 minutes, longer than Bitcoin’s 14-day target for 2,016 blocks. That pace works out to an average block time of 10 minutes, 32 seconds, about 5.1% slower than the protocol’s 10-minute target. The 5% cut brought the network back toward that target.

A Year Defined by Wide Swings

Eight of the 14 difficulty adjustments so far in 2026 have been negative and six positive. The average adjustment was negative 0.87%, but the average absolute move was 5.30%, a gap that points to sharp back-and-forth activity hiding behind a mild-looking average. Compounded from the difficulty in place before the first adjustment on Jan. 8, the network has dropped approximately 14.22%. The July 11 reading ranks as the third-lowest of the year, behind only June 13’s 124.93 trillion and Feb. 7’s 125.86 trillion.

Hashrate Slides Toward Its 2026 Range

The seven-day average hashrate via hashrateindex.com stood near 908 EH/s on July 11, down about 14.8% from the Jan. 1 level of roughly 1,065 EH/s. That figure sits about 21.3% below the one-year peak of 1,154 EH/s reached in October 2025, and just 3.3% above the 2026 low of 879 EH/s set in early February.

The most recent drop happened fast. Hashrate was near 986 EH/s on July 1 and fell to about 908 EH/s by July 11, a decline of roughly 7.9% in ten days. That pullback slowed block production and fed directly into the 5% difficulty cut.

Hashprice Climbs but Stays Deeply Discounted

Hashprice, the expected revenue miners earn per petahash per second, closed near $31.1 on July 11. That marks a recovery of about 12.5% from the $27.6 level seen around July 1, but the metric remains down roughly 16.4% since Jan. 1 and about 37.2% below its one-year high of $49.4, reached in late October 2025. The 2026 low of $27.2 came in early June.

How Difficulty, Hashrate, and Hashprice Fit Together

Difficulty is a lagging measure. It does not track hashrate directly, but it reacts to how fast the previous 2,016 blocks were mined. When hashrate falls, blocks slow, and difficulty drops at the next adjustment. Lower difficulty then raises the expected revenue for each unit of hashpower still running, which can lift hashprice if Bitcoin’s price and fee income hold steady.

The June-to-July stretch shows the mechanism in motion. Hashprice bottomed near $27.2 in early June. Difficulty fell 10.09% on June 13. Hashrate then returned and difficulty rose 7.15% on June 26. Hashrate weakened again, and difficulty fell another 5% on July 11, with hashprice ending the period at $31.1.

All three measures have traced a pattern of lower highs in 2026. Difficulty peaked at 146.47 trillion on Jan. 8 and has not come close since, topping out near 138.97 trillion in April and 133.87 trillion in June. Hashprice peaked at $49.4 in October 2025, then $41.8 in January, then $39 in May. Hashrate peaked at 1,154 EH/s in October 2025, 1,087 EH/s in late February, and has struggled to hold 1,000 EH/s since.

What It Means for Miners and Traders

Each recovery in hashrate and hashprice has fallen short of the one before it. Difficulty relief has softened the blow for miners still operating, but it has not been enough to restore hashprice to earlier levels. For traders, the pattern points to a mining sector adjusting to tighter margins rather than one in a single sustained pullback. Effective computing power has repeatedly returned to a band between roughly 880 and 910 EH/s before rebounding, though it remains unclear whether that range marks a durable floor or another stop on the way lower.

The last time Bitcoin experienced such a prolonged drop was in 2022, when several of crypto’s largest players—including the crypto exchange FTX—collapsed and brought the digital assets market down with them. That period saw Bitcoin plunge 76% from its then–all-time high in 2021 to $16,000 in 2022.

In 2026, the backdrop is different. President Donald Trump has become one of the industry’s biggest boosters, and Wall Street titans like BlackRock and JPMorgan Chase are announcing blockchain-based products left and right. So, why is Bitcoin tanking?

Here are three reasons why the world’s largest cryptocurrency remains mired in a bear market, according to four industry analysts:

Four-year cycles

For over a decade, Bitcoin has  seen three years of significant price appreciation followed by one year of decline. Before the 2022 collapse, the cryptocurrency experienced a downturn in 2018, following the boom and bust of initial coin offerings, or token-based fundraises; and in 2014, following the catastrophic collapse of Mt. Gox, the sector’s largest exchange at the time.

Because the four-year cycle has repeated itself multiple times, investors are now conditioned to expect it, according to Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at the crypto asset manager Bitwise.

“One of the primary reasons for that four-year cycle is actually investor psychology,” Hougan told Fortune. “As we got towards the tail-end of 2025, we started to see some long-term Bitcoin holders… beginning to lighten up on their position.” 

Rising inflation

But, this time around, the collapse of an exchange isn’t keeping Bitcoin down. Macroeconomic conditions are to blame, said Zach Pandl, head of research at digital asset manager Grayscale.

In June, year-over-year inflation rose to 4.1% amid increases in oil prices linked to the U.S. conflict with Iran, according to the U.S. Commerce Department. That’s more than double the Federal Reserve’s long-term target of 2%. 

Increasing inflation has led institutions like Bank of America to predict that Fed chairman Kevin Warsh will raise interest rates later this year, which is bad for Bitcoin. Riskier assets like cryptocurrencies usually see outflows as investors buy up less-risky debt that promises higher yields.

“[We] have seen that pattern play out with Bitcoin’s price over the last several years,” Grayscale’s Pandl told Fortune. “When the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to zero in COVID, Bitcoin’s price increased. When [it] decided that interest rates were too low and sharply raised [them], Bitcoin’s price declined.”

Excess leverage

Crypto wouldn’t be crypto without risk-taking, and leveraged trading has also led to the current downturn in digital assets, said Bitwise’s Hougan and Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant.

Bull markets tend to encourage investors to take on leverage, or borrow against their positions to buy more assets. For example, Strategy, the world’s largest digital asset treasury, ramped up purchases in 2024 and 2025 to accumulate about 4% of Bitcoin’s total supply, financing much of that buying spree with new equity and debt issuances.

The company’s Bitcoin funding approach spurred similar playbooks across the market, with other firms raising capital to build up their own digital asset stockpiles. But as Bitcoin’s price declined, that model came under pressure. Since October, Strategy’s stock price has fallen by 75%.

Why Ripple Swell 2026 Will Be Different

As Ripple Swell 2026 moves closer, Ripple shared on July 10 that early bird pricing for the event will soon expire while continuing to promote a broader gathering than it has hosted in previous years. The event will take place from Oct. 27 through Oct. 29 at The Shed in Manhattan. It is designed to connect traditional financial institutions with developers and organizations working across the onchain economy.

“Join financial leaders, builders, developers, and the XRP community in NYC this October to explore the intersection of traditional finance and the onchain economy.” Swell posted on X. The invitation reflects the event’s expanded audience. It also places XRP supporters alongside institutional executives, researchers, and financial technology companies within the same conference.

The approaching registration deadline provides an immediate update on the event. Early bird pricing ends Saturday, July 11, with passes listed at $1,000 before standard registration increases to $1,200. The pricing reminder adds urgency for prospective attendees without changing the conference’s wider focus on finance, blockchain development, and digital assets.

An Expanded Program Takes Shape

The 2026 conference will combine Swell and Apex for the first time, merging Ripple’s institutional gathering with an event historically focused on XRP Ledger developers. The unified program is intended for financial executives, fintech innovators, engineers, and researchers. That format brings technical XRP Ledger discussions into closer contact with institutions evaluating blockchain infrastructure.

Ripple expects more than 1,500 attendees, at least 75 speakers, and more than 50 sessions across three stages. Planned topics include payments, stablecoins, tokenization, capital markets, regulation, decentralized finance, cybersecurity, treasury management, and XRP utility. The range indicates an effort to address commercial adoption alongside technical development.

Confirmed speakers include Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, President Monica Long and Chief Technology Officer Emeritus David Schwartz. Bullish Chairman and CEO Tom Farley, Tradeweb CEO Billy Hult, and Water.org co-founder Matt Damon are also listed. Additional speakers and detailed sessions are expected to be announced as the conference approaches.

What Could Define Swell 2026

The program begins before the main conference with a hackathon scheduled for Oct. 24 and Oct. 25. An invite-only Institutional Summit and welcome reception follow on Oct. 27. Main-stage presentations, breakout sessions, an expo hall, and related events are planned across the final two days.

Swell 2026’s importance will become clearer as Ripple releases its complete agenda and remaining speakers. The expanded structure already connects institutional finance, XRP Ledger development, and the broader digital asset sector. New partnerships, product demonstrations, regulatory discussions or technical announcements could provide the clearest evidence of what the New York gathering ultimately delivers.