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New Research Model Sheds Light on Cryptocurrency Market Drivers 

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New Research Model Sheds Light on Cryptocurrency Market Drivers 

The new study has delved into cryptocurrency prices, particularly bitcoin, revealing that markets are significantly influenced by both conventional financial factors and crypto-specific factors.

The paper by Austin Adams from Uniswap Labs, Markus Ibert from the Copenhagen Business School Department of Finance, and Gordon Liao from Circle Internet Financial was published earlier this week.

What Drives Crypto Markets?

The researchers used a “sign-restricted vector auto-regressive (VAR) model” enabling them to examine crypto price fluctuations that come from spillovers from traditional financial markets versus risks inherent to crypto assets.

The new model broke bitcoin returns down into various shocks, including monetary policy, conventional risk premium, adoption, and crypto risk premium shocks. It revealed that monetary policy shocks have a substantial impact on bitcoin prices, especially over longer time horizons.

For example, contractionary monetary policy when the Federal Reserve was raising interest rates accounted for over two-thirds of bitcoin’s sharp decline in 2022 when the asset retreated around 65%.

The crypto contagion caused by the collapse of the Terra/Luna ecosystem and FTX later in the year also contributed to that big bear market.

The research noted that while conventional shocks can have large lower-frequency impacts on crypto prices, “most day-to-day movements in bitcoin prices are left unexplained” by these disruptions.

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Bitcoin returns by shock since 2019. Source: Uniswap Labs

It also found that when there is turmoil in the crypto market, people tend to move their money into stablecoins, exhibiting behavior similar to how investors might buy gold or government bonds during stock market turbulence.

When BlackRock announced plans for a Bitcoin ETF, the model detected both increased adoption of the asset class and a decrease in crypto-specific risk aversion. In simple terms, this news made people more interested in BTC and less worried about its risks, driving up the price.

Crypto Not Yet Integrated With TradFi

The researchers concluded that while crypto isn’t entirely separate from the broader financial ecosystem, it’s not completely integrated either.

Their findings highlight the importance of identifying drivers of crypto returns and understanding the asset class’s evolving relationship with traditional financial markets.

With a Federal Reserve rate cut expected in September, crypto markets should do well later this year due to increased liquidity and risk appetite. This also aligns with the four-year market cycle, which should see a bull market peak in late 2025 … if history rhymes.

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SpaceX Lands Nasdaq-100 Spot Weeks After Record IPO

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SpaceX Lands Nasdaq-100 Spot Weeks After Record IPO

Key Takeaways

SpaceX Inclusion Highlights Growing Influence of Aerospace Innovation in Major Market Benchmark

Elon Musk’s Space Exploration Technologies Corporation (Nasdaq: SPCX), also known as SpaceX, will join the Nasdaq-100 Index before the market opens on July 7, 2026, Nasdaq announced on June 26. The addition places the aerospace company among the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market.

SpaceX’s inclusion follows its initial public offering on June 12, 2026, when the company debuted on the Nasdaq in what became the largest IPO in history. The aerospace and technology company priced its shares at $135, entering the market with an initial valuation of $1.77 trillion. Shares opened at $150 and closed their first trading day at $160.95, valuing SpaceX at roughly $2.1 trillion, a milestone that made Musk the world’s first trillionaire.

Nasdaq stated:

“Space Exploration Technologies Corporation (Nasdaq: SPCX) will become a component of the Nasdaq-100 Index prior to market open on Tuesday, July 7, 2026.”

The company entered public markets after years of private growth, fueled by advancements in reusable rocket technology, satellite deployment, and its Starlink broadband network.

Since its record IPO, SpaceX shares have experienced notable volatility. SPCX climbed to an intraday high above $225 during its first week of trading before retreating. The stock later closed at $153.23 on June 26, remaining above its IPO price but trading near its opening level as early enthusiasm gave way to more measured trading.

Nasdaq-100 Tracks Major Non-Financial Companies Listed on the Exchange

The Nasdaq-100 measures the performance of 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on Nasdaq and is widely followed by investors.

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“The Nasdaq-100 Index — which measures the performance of 100 of the largest Nasdaq-listed non-financial companies — is tracked by more than 200 investment products with over $800 billion in assets under management globally,” the company noted, adding:

“Nasdaq Global Indexes publishes and maintains more than 10,000 indexes across asset classes and geographies.”

Inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 can reshape trading activity, as index-tracking funds rebalance their portfolios to incorporate the new constituent. This process typically boosts trading volume and raises the company’s profile among institutional investors.

FTSE Russell is also adding SpaceX to its Russell U.S. equity indexes after Friday’s closing bell as part of its semi-annual reconstitution. The update requires passive funds tied to Russell benchmarks, including the iShares Russell 1000 ETF (IWB), to add SPCX shares as the new index lineup takes effect.

SpaceX’s rapid inclusion in major benchmarks reflects its large market value and strong trading activity, both key factors for index eligibility. Being added to widely followed indexes can also lead to increased demand for shares, as funds that track these benchmarks must buy stock in newly included companies.

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CLARITY Act Needs 60 Votes and 7 Democrats as GOP Races the August Recess Clock

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CLARITY Act Needs 60 Votes and 7 Democrats as GOP Races the August Recess Clock

Key Takeaways

Pressure Builds as the Legislative Window Narrows

The push was reported by Eleanor Terrett, host of “ Crypto in America,” who said GOP lawmakers are increasingly anxious to move the bill once senators return from their break. She tied the renewed sense of urgency to heightened political pressure following the fallout from a contentious housing bill, as well as a growing realization that time is running short. She further added:

“Pressure and time constraints could ultimately create the conditions needed to strike a deal.”

Lawmakers and analysts broadly agree that the Senate must act before August for the legislation to have a realistic shot this year. The CLARITY Act would establish a federal framework dividing oversight of digital assets between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). It is a long-sought goal for an industry that has complained for years about regulatory uncertainty in the U.S. The House of Representatives passed its version of the measure in 2025.

Image source: X

From the outside looking in, the arithmetic seems to be a central hurdle as Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, which means the bill needs at least seven Democratic votes to overcome the 60-vote cloture threshold and reach a final floor vote. The Senate Banking Committee advanced the legislation in a 15-9 vote in May, placing it on the calendar but leaving the floor fight unresolved.

Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) has set an end-of-July target and warned that missing the window could push enforceable digital-asset rules to 2030. Reporting indicates that the House is prepared to move quickly to reconcile the two versions if the Senate passes its bill before the recess, with the lower chamber scheduling back-to-back hearings in July touching on crypto policy.

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Industry pressure has also intensified, with more than 200 organizations, including Coinbase and Ripple, urging Senate leaders to bring the bill to the floor. A separate coalition representing over 1,200 technology companies has pressed for swift passage as U.S. crypto rules face mounting global competition. Groups of former national security officials and crypto founders have added their names to the mix as well in recent weeks.

That said, not everyone is on board with these developments, and Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), ranking member of the Senate Banking Committee, recently argued that the bill in its current form could “blow up the economy.” That opposition is part of why supporters need to peel off a handful of Democrats to reach 60 votes.

What Comes Next

The next step is a Senate floor vote, where the bill’s bipartisan support will face its broadest test. Even if it clears that hurdle, the Senate text would still need to be reconciled with the House’s 2025 version before anything could reach the president’s desk.

As things stand, the August recess functions as a hard deadline in the minds of the bill’s backers. The post-recess stretch runs into an election-year calendar that supporters fear could stall momentum, which is why several lawmakers describe the coming weeks as the bill’s best and possibly final opening this Congress.

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Crypto Insiders Say Daily Senate Meetings Keep CLARITY Act Alive | PYMNTS.com

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Crypto Insiders Say Daily Senate Meetings Keep CLARITY Act Alive | PYMNTS.com

With time running out to strike a deal on cryptocurrency legislation, U.S. senators remain divided on several issues, Semafor reported Thursday (June 25).

Those issues include potential restrictions on President Donald Trump’s ability to profit from digital assets, how to fill empty seats at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), how to govern yields on stablecoins, and how to combat illicit finance, according to the report.

Senators interviewed by Semafor had differing views on the likelihood of a deal being struck on the crypto bill.

Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) said lawmakers hope to get a bill to the Senate floor in July.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) said of the negotiations: “There’s a path there, it’s just that we’re kind of running out of time.”

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Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) said: “I’m pretty down on the lack of progress.”

Supporters of the bill hope to reach a bipartisan deal before the fall midterm elections, which will take away momentum from this and other legislative priorities, per the report.

Bloomberg Government reported Thursday that Lummis said lawmakers will soon release an updated draft of the CLARITY Act that will address some of the outstanding issues.

Kristin Smith, president of the Solana Policy Institute, said in a Thursday post on X that while many people in the crypto community are concerned about the progress of the CLARITY Act, and there’s never a guarantee that legislation will pass, she strongly believes there is a path to get the bill to the President’s desk.

There are active conversations going on between senators of both parties, the White House, the crypto industry and other stakeholders, Smith said in another post.

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“There are daily in-person meetings between key negotiators at the member level,” Smith said in a third post. “That wouldn’t be happening if no one thought this could go anywhere. In Congress, time is scarce, and CLARITY has a lot of attention.”

In Thursday post on X by the Blockchain Association, the organization’s CEO, Summer Mersinger, said that negotiations around outstanding issues in the CLARITY Act are “active, serious and solvable … A July vote should remain the goal — and is, in my view, absolutely achievable.”

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