Why Stocks and Bonds Are Responding Differently to the Iran War

The unique global status of the U.S. dollar and financial markets, and the strength of the U.S. economy, have enabled the government to retain its current rating. “A large, dynamic economy, the dollar’s reserve-currency role and the depth and liquidity of U.S. capital markets are key sovereign rating strengths,” Fitch said. But a variety of “governance” issues under the Trump administration, as well as the conflict in the Middle East, along with persistent and widening budget deficits, have challenged that credit rating.

Nonetheless, U.S. Treasuries have attracted global investors as a “safe haven” during the conflict. Other countries, like Britain, don’t have that status now. British 30-year government bonds, known as gilts, have reached their highest level since 1998. And Britain’s benchmark 10-year bond yield was close to 5 percent, a premium of more than 0.6 percentage points above the equivalent Treasury.

Major world central banks have responded defensively to these financial storms. As I wrote last week, the Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Bank of England and Federal Reserve have all decided to take no action on their key interest rates because of the dual risks posed by rising oil prices resulting from the war with Iran: There are heightened risks of both runaway inflation and throttled economic growth.

That dilemma continues. Kevin M. Warsh, nominated to succeed Jerome H. Powell as Federal Reserve chair, has spoken frequently of the need to trim interest rates but the markets are skeptical. They project no Fed action on rates through December 2027 as the most likely outcome, with a greater possibility of interest rate increases than of reductions, according to futures prices tracked by CME FedWatch.

In short, central banks, which control the shortest-duration interest rates, and the bond market, which sets longer rates, view the economic environment with a jaundiced eye. There is a range of possibilities, from prosperity in many developed markets to chaos if the conflict in the Middle East widens. Fixed-income markets tend to focus on risks more than on the potential for windfall profits that the stock market cherishes.