Connect with us

Business

Which Interest Rate Should You Care About?

Published

on

Which Interest Rate Should You Care About?

Watch out for interest rates.

Not the short-term rates controlled by the Federal Reserve. Barring an unforeseen financial crisis, they’re not going anywhere, especially not after the jump in inflation reported by the government on Wednesday.

Instead, pay attention to the 10-year Treasury yield, which has been bouncing around since the election from about 4.8 to 4.2 percent. That’s not an unreasonable level over the last century or so.

But it’s much higher than the 2.9 percent average of the last 20 years, according to FactSet data. At its upper range, that 10-year yield may be high enough to dampen the enthusiasm of many entrepreneurs and stock investors and to restrain the stock market and the economy.

That’s a problem for the Trump administration. So the new Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, has stated outright what is becoming an increasingly evident reality. “The president wants lower rates,” Mr. Bessent said in an interview with Fox Business. “He and I are focused on the 10-year Treasury.”

Advertisement

Treasuries are the safe and steady core of many investment portfolios. They influence mortgages, credit cards, corporate debt and the exchange rate for the dollar. They are also the standard by which commercial, municipal and sovereign bonds around the world are priced.

What’s moving those Treasury rates now is bond traders’ assessments of the economy — including the Trump administration’s on-again, off-again policies on tariffs, as well as its actions on immigration, taxes, spending and much more.

Mr. Bessent, and President Trump, would like those rates to be substantially lower, and they’re trying to talk them down. But many of the president’s policies are having the opposite effect.

The president needs the bond market on his side. If it comes to disapprove of his policies, rates will rise and the economy — along with the fortunes of the Trump administration — will surely suffer.

Mr. Bessent may be focusing on Treasury rates, or yields, partly to relieve pressure on the Federal Reserve, which President Trump frequently berated in his first term and on the campaign trail.

Advertisement

The Fed’s independence is sacrosanct among most economists and many investors. During the campaign, Mr. Trump repeatedly called on the Fed to lower rates. Yet any threat to the Fed’s ability to operate freely could panic the markets, which, clearly, is not what Mr. Trump wants.

To the contrary, when the markets are strong, he frequently cites them as a barometer of his popularity. In 2017, he boasted about the performance of the stock market an average of once every 35 hours, Politico calculated.

Shortly after the November election, I wrote that the markets might restrain some of Mr. Trump’s actions. But I wouldn’t go too far with this now. Few government departments or traditions seem to be off limits for the administration’s aggressive changes in policy or reductions in work force, masterminded by Mr. Trump’s sidekick, the billionaire disrupter-in-chief, Elon Musk. Just look at The Times’s running tabulation of the actions taken since Jan. 21. It’s dizzying.

Still, so far, at least, the administration has been remarkably circumspect when it comes to the Fed. That doesn’t mean President Trump has entirely constrained himself: He has continued to mock the Fed, saying in a social media post that it has “failed to stop the problem they created with Inflation” and has wasted its time on issues like “DEI, gender ideology, ‘green’ energy, and fake climate change.”

Nonetheless, Mr. Bessent said specifically that Mr. Trump “is not calling for the Fed to lower rates.” Instead, the Treasury secretary said, “If we deregulate the economy, if we get this tax bill done, if we get energy down, then rates will take care of themselves and the dollar will take care of itself.” The president has not contradicted him. So far, trying to control the Fed is a line that Mr. Trump hasn’t yet crossed. The bond market is another matter.

Advertisement

Treasury rates haven’t usually garnered the big headlines frequently devoted to the Federal Reserve.

The Fed is easier to explain. When it raises or lowers short-term rates, it’s clear that somebody took action and caused a measurable change.

In reality, when we report that the Fed is cutting or increasing rates, we mean that it is shifting its key policy rate, the federal funds rate. That’s what banks charge one another for borrowing and lending money overnight. It’s important as a signal — a red or green light for stock traders — and “it influences other interest rates such as the prime rate, which is the rate banks charge their customers with higher credit ratings,” according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. “Additionally, the federal funds rate indirectly influences longer- term interest rates.”

What causes shifts in longer-term rates is much harder to pinpoint because they are set by an amorphous force: the market, with Treasuries at the core. Day to day, you won’t hear much about it unless you’re already a bond maven.

How does any market set prices? Supply and demand, the preferences of buyers and sellers, trading rules — the textbooks say these and other factors determine market prices. That’s true for tangible things like milk, eggs, gasoline, a house or a car. Treasury prices — and those of other bonds, which use Treasuries as a reference — are more complicated. They include estimates of the future of interest rates, of inflation and of the Fed’s intentions.

Advertisement

The Fed sets overnight rates, which are involved indirectly in bond rates for a simple reason. The interest rate for a 10-year Treasury reflects assumptions about many, many days of overnight rates, chained together until they span the life of whatever bond you buy. Inflation matters because when it rises more quickly than anticipated, it will reduce the real value of the stream of income you receive from standard bonds.

That happened in 2022. Inflation soared and so did yields, while bond prices, which move in the opposite direction, fell — creating losses for bond funds and for individual bonds sold under those conditions.

That’s why the increase in inflation in January, to an annual rate of 3 percent for the Consumer Price Index from 2.9 percent the previous month, immediately pushed up the 10-year Treasury yield, which stands above 4.5 percent. Trump administration policies are weighing on bond prices and yields, too.

Mr. Bessent has pointed out that oil prices are a major ingredient in inflation and, therefore, bond yields. But whether Mr. Trump will be able to bring down oil prices by encouraging drilling — while eliminating subsidies and regulations that encourage the development of energy alternatives — is open to question.

Some Trump policies being sold as promoters of economic growth — like cutting regulations and tax rates — could have that effect. But others, like reducing the size of the labor force — which his deportations of undocumented immigrants and restrictions on the arrival of new immigrants will do — could slow growth and increase inflation.

Advertisement

So could the tariffs that he has been threatening, delaying and, in some cases, already imposing. Expectations for future inflation jumped in the University of Michigan’s monthly survey in January. Joanne Hsu, the survey’s director, said that reflects growing concerns about the Trump tariffs among consumers.

“These consumers generally report that tariff hikes will pass through to consumers in the form of higher prices,” she wrote. She added that “recent data show an emergence of inflationary psychology — motives for buying-in-advance to avoid future price increases, the proliferation of which would generate further momentum for inflation.”

None of that augurs well for the 10-year Treasury yield. Nor does a warning issued by five former Treasury secretaries — Robert E. Rubin, Lawrence H. Summers, Timothy F. Geithner, Jacob J. Lew and Janet L. Yellen — who served in Democratic administrations.

They wrote in The New York Times that incursions of Mr. Musk’s cost-cutting team into the Treasury’s payment system threaten the country’s “commitment to make good on our financial obligations.” They applauded Mr. Bessent for assuring Congress in writing that the Treasury will safeguard the “integrity and security of the system, given the implications of any compromise or disruption to the U.S. economy.”

But they decried the need for any Treasury secretary to have to make such promises in his first weeks in office.

Advertisement

Other potential flash points for Treasury yields loom. The Fed has in the past manipulated the market bond supply by buying and selling securities. It’s reducing its holding now, which could put upward pressure on interest rates — and make the Fed an irresistible Trump target. At the same time, Secretary Bessent is financing the government debt mainly with shorter-term bills but may not be able to avoid increasing the supply of longer-term Treasuries indefinitely, as the federal deficit swells. Yet Congress is reluctant to raise the debt ceiling, which will bite later this year.

These are difficult times. So far, the 10-year yield hasn’t shifted all that much. The markets, at least, have been holding steady.

Business

Commentary: Trump is demanding a 10% cap on credit card interest. Here’s why that’s a lousy idea

Published

on

Commentary: Trump is demanding a 10% cap on credit card interest. Here’s why that’s a lousy idea

A few days ago, President Trump staked a claim to the “affordability” issue by demanding that banks cap their credit card interest rates at 10% for one year.

Actually, Trump announced that in effect he had imposed the cap, a claim that some news organizations accepted as gospel.

So let’s dispose of that misconception right off: Trump has zero power to cap interest rates on credit cards. Only Congress can do so.

The idea of a 10% rate cap has all the seriousness of bread-and-circuses governance.

— Adam Levitin, Georgetown Law

Advertisement

More to the point, his proposal, announced via a post on his TruthSocial platform, is a terrible idea. It’s half-baked at best, and harbors unintended consequences by the carload — so much, in fact, that the putative savings that ordinary households could see from the rate reduction might be diluted, or even reversed, by the drawbacks.

Still, the idea has so much consumerist appeal that it placed Trump in accord with some of his most obdurate critics, such as Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), who has been pressing to place limits on bank fees for years. Warren said she and Trump had a phone conversation in which they seemed to have talked companionably about the issue.

Trump’s announcement did have the salutary effect of placing the issue of financial services costs on the front burner, after its having languished for years. But it obscured the immense complexities of making any such change.

“Certainly this demonstrates a populist streak on both sides of the aisle,” says Adam Rust, director of financial services at the Consumer Federation of America. “But you can’t just write a tweet and upend a huge market.”

Advertisement

The market for credit cards is indeed huge. As of 2024, credit card debt in the U.S. exceeded $1.21 trillion. This is the most profitable line of business for many banks, producing $120 billion in interest income and $162 billion in fees, chiefly those the card issuers impose on merchants.

“Almost 30% of that is pure profit,” reported Brian Shearer of Vanderbilt University, a former official at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, in a 2025 study.

So it should come as no surprise that the entire banking industry has circled the wagons against a cap on credit card interest rates, especially one as stringent as 10%. On Jan. 9, the very day of Trump’s announcement, five leading bank lobbying organizations issued a joint statement asserting that a 10% cap would be “devastating for millions of American families and small business owners who rely on and value their credit cards, the very consumers this proposal intends to help.”

Among its drawbacks, the statement said, “this cap would only drive consumers toward less regulated, more costly alternatives.”

It’s tempting to dismiss the statement as the normal grousing of a big industry about a government regulation. Banks have acquired a certain reputation for profiteering from customers, especially less well-heeled customers, and playing fast and loose with the facts about their costs and profits. But the truth is that on this topic, they have a point.

Advertisement

Let’s take a look, starting with some basic facts — and misconceptions — about credit cards.

The credit card market is heterogeneous, segmented by income and more importantly by credit score. Those with the highest FICO scores typically get the lowest interest rates, but are also more inclined to pay off their balances every month without incurring any fees, even as their average balances are the highest.

About 40% of all users, including many with middling credit scores, pay off their balances monthly but use their cards for convenience, to access fraud protections provided by credit cards but not by other forms of credit, and to garner card rewards.

Interest fees aren’t the issuers’ sole source of revenue. Most revenue comes at the other end of the transaction, in interchange or “swipe” fees paid by merchants.

That’s why card issuers still cherish high-income transactors and shower them with rewards — the monthly balances of users in the 760-to-840 FICO score range vastly exceed those of other users, indicating that they’re generating correspondingly more in interchange fees from the merchants they patronize.

Advertisement

The average interest rate on credit cards reached 25.2% last year, according to a December report by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. It has steadily increased since 2022, mostly because of an increase in the prime rate, the benchmark for card issuers.

How did it get so high? Blame the Supreme Court, which in 1978 undermined state usury laws by ruling that banks could charge customers the usury rate of their home state rather than the rate in the customer’s state. That’s why your credit card may be “issued” by a bank subsidiary in Utah, South Dakota or Delaware, which have lax usury limits. The solution would be enactment of a nationwide usury limit, but that falls entirely within congressional authority.

So what would happen if Congress did place a limit on the maximum credit card interest rate — if not 10%, then 15% or 18%, as has been proposed in the past? Shearer contends that banks make such fat profits from credit card users at every FICO level that they could still earn healthy returns even at a 15% cap. Shearer estimated that a cap of 15% would produce more than $48 billion in annual customer savings “coming almost entirely out of bank profits.”

Other analysts are not so sanguine. “There is no free lunch here,” argues Adam Levitin, a credit market expert at Georgetown law school. Levitin argues that while issuer profits are large, their margins are not so large. He calculates that a 10% cap would make the general credit card business unprofitable, because there wouldn’t be enough headroom over the benchmark prime rate (currently 6.75%) to cover administrative costs and other overhead.

Issuers don’t have many options to preserve their profitability. So they’re likely to respond by shutting the door on low-income and low-FICO customers and ratcheting back credit limits.

Advertisement

“The effects will be devastating,” Levitin says. “Families that need the short-term float or the ability to pay back purchases over several months won’t have it. How will they pay for a new water heater when the old one goes out and they don’t have $3,000 sitting around?”

Many will be forced to resort to other short-term unsecured lenders — payday lenders, buy-now-pay-later firms and others that don’t offer the consumer protections of credit cards and would be exempt from the interest cap on credit cards.

“The idea of a 10% rate cap,” Levitin says, “has all the seriousness of bread-and-circuses governance.”

The availability of credit from alternative consumer lenders that don’t offer the statutory protections mandated for credit cards concerns consumer advocates.

A hard cap on interest rates “could create a sharp contraction in the kind of credit available in the marketplace,” says Delicia Hand of Consumer Reports. “It sounds good, but there could be unintended consequences, especially if you don’t think about what fills the gap,”

Advertisement

Alternative products aren’t regulated as stringently as credit cards. “Direct-to-consumer products can layer subscription fees, expedited access fees, and ‘voluntary’ tips in combinations that produce effective annual percentage rates ranging from under 100% to well over 300% — and in some documented cases, exceeding 1,000% when annualized for frequent users,” Hand said in remarks prepared for delivery Tuesday to the House Committee on Financial Services.

If an interest rate cap is too tight, all but the highest-rated customers might face higher annual fees and stingier rewards. Issuers are likely to squeeze merchants too. Big businesses — think Costco and Amazon — might be able to negotiate swipe fees down and eat the remainder instead of passing them through to consumers. But small neighborhood merchants might refuse to accept credit cards for purchases below a certain amount, or add a swipe fee surcharge to customers’ bills.

Other complexities bedevil proposals like Trump’s, or for that matter bills introduced last year in the Senate by Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) and in the House by Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.), capping rates at 10% for five years. Those measures have the virtue of simplicity — they’re only three pages long — but the drawback, also, of simplicity.

Among the open questions, Levitin observes, are whether the 10% cap would apply to all balances or just to purchases. If the former, it remakes credit cards into tools for “low-cost leverage for cryptocurrency speculation and sports betting,” because in today’s interest rate environment it’s cheap money.

Trump’s announcement, in particular, displays all the drawbacks of insufficient cogitation characteristic of so many of his ventures. Published on Jan. 9, it called for the cap to be implemented on Jan. 20, the anniversary of his inauguration: a mere 11 days to implement a change in a $1.21-trillion market with potential ramifications on a dizzying scale.

Advertisement

Since he doesn’t have the authority to mandate the cap by executive order, he’s in effect calling for the banks to make the change voluntarily. Given the impact on their profits, on the gonna-happen scale, that’s a “not.”

Adding to the sour ironies of this effort, Trump’s far-right budget director, Russell Vought, has been pursuing a vicious campaign to destroy the agency with statutory authority over the consumer lending industry, the CFPB — of which Trump appointed Vought acting director.

Vought also rescinded a Biden-era CFPB rule reducing credit card late fees to no more than $8 from as much as $41—further undermining Trump’s attempt to pose as a friend of the credit card customer.

Consumer advocates are pleased that the debate over card fees has placed financial services costs squarely in the “affordability” debate, where they belong.

There’s no question that capping card interest rates at some level could bring savings to consumers to maintain monthly balances — “revolvers,” in industry parlance. “It could be worth several bags of groceries a month, or a tank of gas,” Rust conjectures — “significant savings for millions of people.”

Advertisement

The challenge is finding “where the right level is, balancing risk and availability,” he told me. “That’s not clear at the moment.”

Continue Reading

Business

Disneyland Park attendance reaches 900 million over 70 years in business

Published

on

Disneyland Park attendance reaches 900 million over 70 years in business

Disneyland, the iconic tourist destination that transformed the entertainment landscape in Southern California, has reached a new milestone: 900 million people have visited the park since its opening in 1955.

The latest attendance figure was described in a new documentary called “Disneyland Handcrafted,” chronicling the creation of the theme park. The film, which includes footage from the Walt Disney Archives, will stream on Disney+.

In 2024 — the most recent year data was available — Disneyland’s attendance ticked up 0.5% to 17.3 million, according to a report from the Themed Entertainment Assn. Like many other theme parks, Disney does not release internal attendance figures.

Walt Disney Co.’s theme parks, cruise ships and vacation resorts have been a key economic driver for the Burbank media and entertainment company.

Last year, almost 57% of the company’s operating income was generated by the tourism and leisure segment, known as Disney’s “experiences” business. That sector reported revenue of $36.2 billion for fiscal year 2025, a 6% bump compared to the previous year. Operating income increased 8% to nearly $10 billion.

Advertisement

Disney has said it will invest $60 billion into its experiences segment, underscoring the importance of that business to the company. At Disneyland Resort in Anaheim, that could mean at least $1.9 billion of development on projects including an expansion of the Avengers Campus and a “Coco”-themed boat ride at Disney California Adventure, as well as an “Avatar”-inspired area.

Over its 70 years, Disneyland has undergone many changes and expansions. Though some of its original attractions still exist, including Peter Pan’s Flight, Dumbo the Flying Elephant and the Mark Twain Riverboat, the park has evolved to align more with its Hollywood cinematic properties and expanded in 2019 to include a “Star Wars”-themed land.

Continue Reading

Business

How bits of Apple history can be yours

Published

on

How bits of Apple history can be yours

In March 1976, Apple cofounders Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak both signed a $500 check weeks before the official creation of a California company that would transform personal computing and become a global powerhouse.

Now that historic Wells Fargo check could be sold for $500,000 at an auction that ends on Jan. 29. The sale, run by RR Auction, includes some of Apple’s early items and childhood belongings of Jobs, Apple’s cofounder and chief executive, who died in 2011 at 56, after battling pancreatic cancer.

Since its founding, the Cupertino tech giant has attracted millions of fans who buy its laptops, smartphones, headphones and smart watches. The auction gives the adoring public a chance to own part of the company’s history ahead of Apple’s 50th anniversary in April.

Apple’s first check from March 1976 predates the company’s official founding in April 1976. It also includes the signatures of Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak.

(RR Auction)

Advertisement

“Without a doubt, check number one is the most important piece of paper in Apple’s history,” said Corey Cohen, a computer historian and Apple-1 expert, in a video about the item. At the time, Apple’s cofounders, he added, were “putting everything on the line.”

Cohen said he’s known of a governor, entrepreneurs, award-winning filmmakers and musicians who own rare Apple collectibles. Jobs is a “cult of personality,” and people collect items tied to the tech mogul.

“This is a very important collection that’s being sold because there are a lot of personal items, a lot of things that weren’t generally available to the public before, because these things are coming right out of Jobs’ home,” he said in an interview.

RR Auction said it couldn’t share the names of the consignors on the check and some of the other auction items.

Advertisement

As of Monday, bids on the check surpassed $200,000. Jobs typically didn’t sign autographs, so owning a document bearing his signature is rare.

Other items up for auction include Apple’s March 1976 Wells Fargo account statement — the company’s first financial document — and an Apple-1 computer prototype board used to validate Apple’s first computer.

The auction features a variety of memorabilia, including vintage Apple posters, Apple rainbow glasses, letters, magazines, older Apple computers, and other historic items.

Apple didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Some of Jobs’ personal items came from his stepbrother, John Chovanec, who had preserved them for decades.

Advertisement

The items provide “a rare view” into Jobs’ “private world and formative years outside Apple’s corporate narrative,” a news release about the auction said.

Jobs’ bedroom desk from his family’s Los Altos home, which housed a garage where Apple-1 computers were put together, is also up for sale.

Papers from Jobs’ years before Apple are inside the desk and the highest bid on that item has surpassed $44,000.

An auction celebrating Apple's upcoming 50th anniversary includes late Apple co-founder Steve Jobs' belongings.

A bedroom desk that belonged to late Apple cofounder Steve Jobs provides a glimpse into his early years before he created the tech company.

(RR Auction)

Advertisement

Bids on an Apple business card on which Jobs writes “Hi, I’m back” in black ink to his father reached more than $22,200. The card features Apple’s colorful logo alongside Jobs’ title as chairman, a role he returned to in 2011, according to the auction site.

Other items include 8-track tapes that featured music from artists such as Bob Dylan. Bids on a 1977 vintage poster featuring a red Apple that hung in Jobs family’s living room top $16,600, the auction site shows.

While Jobs is known for donning a black turtleneck, he also wore bow ties during high school and at Apple’s early events.

An auction to celebrate Apple's upcoming 50th anniversary includes bow ties worn by late Apple cofounder Steve Jobs.

A collection of bow ties that belonged to late Apple co-founder Steve Jobs.

(RR Auction)

Advertisement

Some of Jobs’ bow ties have sold for thousands of dollars at other auctions.

Last year, a pink-and-green striped bow tie he wore when introducing the Macintosh computer in 1984 sold for more than $35,000 at a Julien’s Auctions event that highlighted technology and history.

The items on RR Auction feature colorful clip-on bow ties from Jobs’ bedroom closet.

“This brief fashion phase contrasted sharply with the minimalist black turtleneck and jeans that would later define his public image,” a description of the item states. “The shift reflected Jobs’ evolution from an ambitious young innovator to a visionary with a distinct and enduring personal brand.”

Advertisement
Continue Reading
Advertisement

Trending