Business
Trump’s Economy at One Year: Food Prices, Stock Market and More
President Trump campaigned in 2024 on promises to “end inflation,” bring back manufacturing jobs and deliver an economic boom. A year after he returned to the White House, he has yet to deliver on those pledges. Still, there has been progress in some areas, and the economy has proved surprisingly resilient.
Here are eight of the promises Mr. Trump made as a candidate, and where things stand after his first year back in office.
Food Prices
Prices are down for a few specific grocery categories, like eggs, but are up sharply in others, like beef. Overall, food inflation has slowed significantly since peaking in 2022, but it has actually picked up somewhat since Mr. Trump returned to office — December saw the biggest one-month increase in grocery prices since 2022.
Mr. Trump often went even further on the campaign trail, promising to “bring down the prices of all goods.” Economists say that was never credible — and, indeed, outright declines in prices, known as deflation, are generally a sign of a deep economic slump. But they say inflation might have cooled more this year if Mr. Trump hadn’t imposed tariffs on a broad range of imported goods.
Gas Prices
Gas prices have fallen under Mr. Trump, though not to the sub-$2 level that he promised on the campaign trail. The average price of a gallon of regular gasoline was $2.78 in early January, according to the Energy Information Administration, down from just over $3 a year earlier. Gas prices hit a record high of more than $5 a gallon in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, but had fallen significantly even before Mr. Trump returned to office.
Energy experts generally say presidents have little control over the price of oil. The major factors driving the recent decline, including robust domestic oil production, were in place long before Mr. Trump returned to office, although his trade policies may also have played a role by leading to lower forecasts for global growth. Still, prices at the pump are the lowest they’ve been in nearly five years.
Electricity Prices
Campaign rally in Asheville, N.C., Aug. 14, 2024
“Under my leadership, the United States will commit to the ambitious goal of slashing energy and electricity prices by half, at least half. We intend to slash prices by half within 12 months, at a maximum 18 months.”
Hasn’t happened
Unlike gasoline, the electricity market is extremely regional, with different parts of the country paying sharply different prices for power. On average, however, residential electricity prices in December were up 6.7 percent from a year earlier, and have risen far more in some areas.
Power prices are being driven in part by rising demand from the data centers used to train and run artificial intelligence models. That has created a political liability for Mr. Trump, whose administration has embraced the A.I. boom. Rising electric bills were a major issue in gubernatorial races last year, and are expected to feature heavily in midterm campaigns this year.
The Auto Industry
U.S. auto production peaked in the mid-1980s and has fallen steadily since then. That decline showed little sign of reversing during Mr. Trump’s first year back in office. Globally, U.S. carmakers have lost ground to foreign competitors, particularly Chinese companies specializing in affordable electric vehicles. Employment in the automaking sector has fallen by about 28,000 jobs in the past year.
Manufacturing Jobs
Campaign speech in Savannah, Ga., Sept. 25, 2024
“This new American industrialism will create millions and millions of jobs, massively raise wages for American workers, and make the United States into a manufacturing powerhouse like it used to be many years ago.”
Hasn’t happened
Manufacturing employment was roughly flat in Mr. Trump’s first few months back in the White House, but has now fallen for eight straight months. Wage growth for rank-and-file factory workers also slowed in 2025.
Mr. Trump’s supporters say it will take time for his trade policies to translate into factory jobs. But critics note that investment in factory construction, which should respond more quickly to policy changes, has also fallen.
Stock Market
NRA event in Dallas, May 18, 2024
“We are a nation whose stock market’s continued success is contingent on MAGA winning the next election.”
So far, so good
Mr. Trump’s first year was a wild one for the stock market. At one point last spring, the S&P 500 closed down nearly 18 percent from its peak, narrowly avoiding the 20 percent drop that is the conventional definition of a bear market. But despite several other jittery moments, stocks ended 2025 up 16 percent, making it a strong year.
Some of the ups and downs were the direct results of Mr. Trump’s policies. Stocks fell more than 10 percent in two days in early April after Mr. Trump announced tariffs on nearly all U.S. trading partners. They rallied by nearly as much when Mr. Trump rolled back many of those tariffs a few days later.
But the driving force behind the market gains was investor optimism about artificial intelligence. Companies tied to the A.I. boom saw their stock prices soar, even as some other sectors lagged. That increasing concentration has fueled concerns that the bull market could be vulnerable if A.I. proves to be a bubble.
Tariff revenue
Campaign rally in Juneau, Wisc., Oct. 6, 2024
“We will use the hundreds and billions — it’s really trillions, OK, but we’re going to use the hundreds of billions — of tariff dollars to benefit American citizens and to pay off debt because we have to start paying off debt.”
Some progress
The U.S. Treasury collected a record $264 billion in tariff revenue in 2025, more than three times the total in 2024. In November, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the tariffs would bring in about $2.5 trillion in revenue through 2035, about half as much as the corporate income tax. That assumes the tariffs remain in place, however — the Supreme Court is considering a legal challenge that could invalidate some of the duties.
Even if tariffs remain in place, the debt will continue to grow because tariffs won’t fully offset the lost revenue from the tax cuts that Mr. Trump signed into law last year. That bill will add $3.4 trillion to the deficit over 10 years, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
Trade deficit
As a candidate, Mr. Trump promised his tariffs would discourage imports and encourage companies to shift production back to the United States, shrinking the trade deficit. In his first months back in office, the opposite occurred: The trade deficit exploded as companies rushed to import goods to get ahead of tariffs.
Imports dropped off sharply once Mr. Trump’s trade policies took effect, narrowing the deficit significantly late in the year. But imports could pick up again once companies sell through their inventories, and there has been little evidence of companies moving production back to the United States in a major way.
China is a somewhat different story. The U.S.-China trade deficit peaked during Mr. Trump’s first term and has declined since then, as both the Trump and Biden administrations imposed tariffs and other restrictions on trade with China. But some Chinese companies are routing trade through other countries to avoid U.S. duties, making it hard to estimate exactly how much imports from China have fallen.
Business
FKA twigs sues ex-boyfriend Shia LaBeouf over ‘unlawful’ NDA
Singer-songwriter FKA twigs is suing her ex-boyfriend, actor Shia LaBeouf, claiming that he is trying to “silence” her from speaking out against sexual abuse through the use of an “unlawful” nondisclosure agreement.
The complaint, filed in Los Angeles Superior Court on Wednesday, seeks a court order to prohibit LeBeouf from enforcing sections of an NDA which Tahliah Barnett — the Grammy Award-winning singer’s legal name — says violates California law.
“Shia LaBeouf has tried to control Tahliah Barnett for the better part of a decade,” the filing states.
“This action was taken in response to Mr. LaBeouf’s attempt to bully and intimidate twigs through a frivolous and unlawful secret arbitration he filed against her in December in which he sought to extract money from her,” said the singer’s attorney Mathew Rosengart, national co-chair of media & entertainment litigation at Greenberg Traurig in Century City, in a statement.
Rosengart added that twigs “refuses to be bullied anymore. She is instead standing up for herself and other survivors of sexual abuse who have improperly been silenced. This is the unusual case that is not about money but about justice and upholding and enforcing California law and policy designed to protect survivors by nullifying illegal NDAs.”
LaBeouf’s attorney Shawn Holley of Kinsella Holley Iser Kump Steinsapir denied the claims.
“When Ms. Barnett and Mr. LaBeouf both decided to resolve their differences and move on with their lives, no one forced her or ‘bullied’ her to stay silent,” Holley said in a statement.
“As a woman with agency, she decided to settle the case and accepted money to dismiss her lawsuit.”
The suit arises out of litigation that Barnett brought against LaBeouf in 2020, when she accused the actor of “physical, sexual, and mental abuse” during their relationship,” as well as “knowingly infect[ing]” Barnett with a sexually transmitted disease.” That case was settled last year.
In a response to the suit, the actor told the New York Times that “many of these allegations are not true.”
But he added, “I am not in the position to defend any of my actions. I owe these women the opportunity to air their statements publicly and accept accountability for those things I have done.”
In the statement Thursday, Holley added that the claim of sexual battery “was disputed, as were the other claims made in Ms. Barnett’s lawsuit.”
Shia LaBeouf poses for photographers upon arrival at the premiere of the film “The Phoenician Scheme” at the 78th annual Cannes Film Festival May 18, 2025.
(Lewis Joly / Invision / AP)
According to the new lawsuit, LaBeouf filed a secret arbitration complaint and “improperly sought exorbitant monies” from Barnett last December, claiming she had breached their agreement by violating its nondisclosure provisions after she gave an interview to the Hollywood Reporter in October.
In the interview, Barnett was asked if she felt safe and answered that as a woman of color in the entertainment industry, she “wouldn’t feel safe” and discussed her involvement with organizations that support survivors, saying, “I think it’s less about me at this point and more about looking forward. Just, you know, moving on with my life.”
The agreement Barnett reached with LaBeouf “contained a deficient and unlawful NDA that is unenforceable,” under California’s Stand Together Against Non-Disclosure Act, according to the complaint. The law forbids NDAs from being used to silence victims of sexual misconduct.
“As the California Legislature has made clear, survivors should have the right to tell their stories without fear or coercion, and California law does not and must not allow abusers and bullies to silence them through secret agreements containing unconscionable, unlawful gag orders,” the complaint states.
The lawsuit further alleges that while LaBeouf has sought to prohibit Barnett from talking about her abuse, he has “repeatedly brought up his relationship with Ms. Barnett—on his own and without being directly asked about her—materially breaching the very confidentiality provisions that he had just contended were fully enforceable against Ms. Barnett.”
While the actor agreed to drop the arbitration in February, he has “refused to acknowledge, however, that the NDA provisions are illegal and unenforceable,” the filing states.
The latest round in LaBeouf’s legal battle with Barnett comes just weeks after a New Orleans judge ordered the actor to begin substance abuse treatment and undergo weekly drug testing after he was arrested on suspicion of assaulting two men in the city’s French Quarter. LaBeouf was also required to post $100,000 bond as part of the conditions of his release. He was charged with two counts of simple battery, the Associated Press reported.
Business
Warner shareholders to vote on Paramount takeover
Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders will soon render a verdict on Hollywood’s biggest merger in nearly a decade.
Warner has set an April 23 special meeting of stockholders to vote on the company’s proposed sale, for $31-a-share, to the Larry Ellison family’s Paramount Skydance.
The $111-billion deal is expected to reshape the entertainment industry by combining two historic film studios, dozens of prominent TV networks, including CBS, HBO, HGTV and Comedy Central, streaming services and two news organizations, CNN and CBS News. The tie-up would give Paramount such beloved characters as Batman, Wile E. Coyote, and Harry Potter, television shows including “Hacks,” and “The Pitt,” and a rich vault of movies that includes “Casablanca,” and “One Battle After Another.”
The $31-a-share offer represents a 63% increase over Paramount Chairman David Ellison’s initial $19-a-share proposal for the company in mid-September, and a 147% premium over Warner’s stock’s trading levels prior to news of Ellison’s interest.
“This transaction is the culmination of the Board’s robust process to unlock the full value of our world-class portfolio,” Warner Bros. Discovery Chief Executive David Zaslav said Thursday in a statement. “We are working closely with Paramount to close the transaction and deliver its benefits to all stakeholders.”
Paramount hopes to finalize the takeover by September. It has been working to secure the blessing of government regulators in the U.S. and abroad.
Should those regulatory deliberations stretch beyond September, Paramount will pay shareholders a so-called “ticking fee” — an extra 25 cents a share for every 90-day-period until the deal closes.
The transaction will leave the combined company with nearly $80-billion in debt, a sum that experts say will lead to significant cost cuts.
Paramount Skydance Chairman and CEO David Ellison attends President Trump’s State of the Union address three days before clinching his hard-fought Warner Bros. Discovery deal.
(Mark Schiefelbein / Associated Press)
For weeks it appeared that Netflix would scoop up Warner Bros.
Netflix initially won the bidding war in early December with a $27.75 offer for the studios and streaming services, including HBO Max. But Ellison refused to throw in the towel. He and his team continued to lobby shareholders, politicians and Warner board members, insisting their deal for the entire company, including the cable channels, was superior and they had a more certain path to win regulatory approval.
The Ellison family is close to President Trump. This week, Trump named Larry Ellison to a proposed White House council on technology issues, including artificial intelligence.
Warner’s board, under pressure, reopened the bidding in late February to allow Paramount to make its case. Warner board members ultimately concluded that Paramount’s bid topped the one from Netflix and the streamer bowed out. Paramount paid a $2.8-billion termination fee to Netflix and signed the merger agreement on Feb. 27.
Warner’s board is advising its shareholders to approve the Paramount deal. Failure to cast a vote will be the same as a no-vote, according to the company’s proxy.
Warner’s largest shareholders include the Vanguard Group, BlackRock, Inc. and State Street Corp.
Zaslav has significant stock and options holdings, worth about $517 million at the deal’s close, according to the proxy.
The regulatory filing also disclosed that a mysterious bidder had surfaced at the auction’s 11th hour.
A firm called Nobelis Capital, Pte., reportedly based in Singapore, alerted Warner on Feb. 18 that it was willing to pay $32.50 a share in cash.
The firm said it had placed $7.5 billion into an escrow account. However, Warner’s bankers “could not find the purported deposit at J.P. Morgan,” according to the proxy. And there was no evidence that Nobelis had any assets or any “equity or debt financing” lined up, Warner said, adding that it “took no further action with respect to the Nobelis proposal.”
Business
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