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The June Payrolls Report Probably Doesn’t Change Much for the Fed

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The June Payrolls Report Probably Doesn’t Change Much for the Fed

Federal Reserve policymakers are keenly focused on the strength of the labor market as they debate how much further the economy needs to cool to ensure that quick inflation fades back to a normal pace. Fresh labor market data released on Friday probably offered little to dissuade them from raising interest rates at their meeting this month.

The June data is the last payrolls report that officials will receive before the central bank’s July 25-26 meeting. It underscored many of the labor market themes that have been present for months: Although job growth is gradually slowing, wage growth remains abnormally quick and the unemployment rate is very low at 3.6 percent.

Investors widely expected the Fed to raise rates at their July meeting even before the report, and the June data reinforced that prediction. Many paid especially close attention to the pay data: Average hourly earnings climbed 4.4 percent over the year through June, versus an expectation for 4.2 percent, and wage gains for May were revised higher. After months of slowing, those earnings figures have held roughly steady since March.

“On balance, it’s strong enough for the Fed to think they still have some more work to do,” said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Bank of America, explaining that the report contained both signs of early weakness and signs of sustained strength. “Hiring is cooling, but the labor market is still hot.”

Fed officials are closely watching wage data, because they worry that if pay growth remains unusually rapid, it could make it difficult to bring elevated inflation fully back to their 2 percent goal. The logic? When companies compensate their workers better, they might also raise their prices to cover their higher wage bills. At the same time, families earning more will be more capable of shouldering higher prices.

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Fed officials have been surprised by the economy’s staying power 16 months into their push to slow it down by raising interest rates, which makes borrowing money more expensive and is meant to cool consumer and business demand. Growth is slower, but the housing market has begun to stabilize and the job market has remained abnormally strong with plentiful opportunities and at least some bargaining power for many workers.

That resilience — along with the stubbornness of quick inflation, particularly for services — is why policymakers expect to continue raising interest rates, which they have already lifted above 5 percent for the first time in about 15 years. Officials have ratcheted up rates in smaller increments this year than last year, and they skipped a rate move at their June meeting for the first time in 11 gatherings. But several policymakers have been clear that even as the pace moderates, they still expect to raise interest rates further.

“It can make sense to skip a meeting and move more gradually,” Lorie K. Logan, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, said during a speech this week, while noting that it is important for officials to follow up by continuing to lift rates.

She added that “inflation and the labor market evolving more or less as expected wouldn’t really change the outlook.”

Fed officials predicted in June that they would raise interest rates twice more this year — assuming they move in quarter-point increments — and that the labor market would soften, but only slightly. They saw the unemployment rate rising to 4.1 percent by the end of the year.

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Policymakers will not release new economic projections until September, but Wall Street will monitor how policymakers are reacting to economic developments to gauge whether another move this year is likely.

“Jobs growth has slowed but remains too strong to justify an extended Fed pause,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, explaining that the fresh data gave the Fed “little reason” to hold off on a July increase. The question is what happens after that.

For now, investors see another rate increase after July as possible but not guaranteed, and the June jobs report did little to change that.

The yield on the two-year Treasury bond, which is sensitive to changes in investors’ expectations for interest rates going forward, eased to around 4.9 percent, from over 5 percent. The move reflected in part investors’ relief that the jobs numbers had not followed a series of other data points this week that exceeded expectations.

Some on Wall Street expect the economy to soften more substantially in the coming months, which could prod the Fed to hold off on future rate moves. It often takes months or years for higher borrowing costs to have their full economic effect, so more slowing could be in the pipeline already.

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This month, one of Wall Street’s widely watched recession indicators, which compares yields on short- and long-dated government bonds, sent its strongest signal since the early 1980s that a downturn is coming.

But Fed officials aren’t so sure. Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said on Friday on CNBC that getting inflation down without a recession would be a “triumph.”

“That’s the golden path — and I feel like we’re on that golden path,” Mr. Goolsbee said.

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Albania Gives Jared Kushner Hotel Project a Nod as Trump Returns

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Albania Gives Jared Kushner Hotel Project a Nod as Trump Returns

The government of Albania has given preliminary approval to a plan proposed by Jared Kushner, Donald J. Trump’s son-in-law, to build a $1.4 billion luxury hotel complex on a small abandoned military base off the coast of Albania.

The project is one of several involving Mr. Trump and his extended family that directly involve foreign government entities that will be moving ahead even while Mr. Trump will be in charge of foreign policy related to these same nations.

The approval by Albania’s Strategic Investment Committee — which is led by Prime Minister Edi Rama — gives Mr. Kushner and his business partners the right to move ahead with accelerated negotiations to build the luxury resort on a 111-acre section of the 2.2-square-mile island of Sazan that will be connected by ferry to the mainland.

Mr. Kushner and the Albanian government did not respond Wednesday to requests for comment. But when previously asked about this project, both have said that the evaluation is not being influenced by Mr. Kushner’s ties to Mr. Trump or any effort to try to seek favors from the U.S. government.

“The fact that such a renowned American entrepreneur shows his interest on investing in Albania makes us very proud and happy,” a spokesman for Mr. Rama said last year in a statement to The New York Times when asked about the projects.

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Mr. Kushner’s Affinity Partners, a private equity company backed with about $4.6 billion in money mostly from Saudi Arabia and other Middle East sovereign wealth funds, is pursuing the Albania project along with Asher Abehsera, a real-estate executive that Mr. Kushner has previously teamed up with to build projects in Brooklyn, N.Y.

The Albanian government, according to an official document recently posted online, will now work with their American partners to clear the proposed hotel site of any potential buried munitions and to examine any other environmental or legal concerns that need to be resolved before the project can move ahead.

The document, dated Dec. 30, notes that the government “has the right to revoke the decision,” depending on the final project negotiations.

Mr. Kushner’s firm has said the plan is to build a five-star “eco-resort community” on the island by turning a “former military base into a vibrant international destination for hospitality and wellness.”

Ivanka Trump, Mr. Trump’s daughter, has said she is helping with the project as well. “We will execute on it,” she said about the project, during a podcast last year.

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This project is just one of two major real-estate deals that Mr. Kushner is pursuing along with Mr. Abehsera that involve foreign governments.

Separately, the partnership received preliminary approval last year to build a luxury hotel complex in Belgrade, Serbia, in the former ministry of defense building, which has sat empty for decades after it was bombed by NATO in 1999 during a war there.

Serbia and Albania have foreign policy matters pending with the United States, as both countries seek continued U.S. support for their long-stalled efforts to join the European Union, and officials in Washington are trying to convince Serbia to tighten ties with the United States, instead of Russia.

Virginia Canter, who served as White House ethics lawyer during the Obama and Clinton administrations and also an ethics adviser to the International Monetary Fund, said even if there was no attempt to gain influence with Mr. Trump, any government deal involving his family creates that impression.

“It all looks like favoritism, like they are providing access to Kushner because they want to be on the good side of Trump,” Ms. Canter said, now with State Democracy Defenders Fund, a group that tracks federal government corruption and ethics issues.

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Craft supplies retailer Joann declares bankruptcy for the second time in a year

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Craft supplies retailer Joann declares bankruptcy for the second time in a year

The craft supplies and fabric retailer Joann filed for bankruptcy for the second time in less than a year, as the chain wrestles with declining sales and inventory shortages, the company said Wednesday.

The retailer emerged from a previous Chapter 11 bankruptcy process last April after eliminating $505 million in debt. Now, with $615 million in liabilities, the company will begin a court-supervised sale of its assets to repay creditors. The company owes an additional $133 million to its suppliers.

“We hope that this process enables us to find a path that would allow Joann to continue operating,” said interim Chief Executive Michael Prendergast in a statement. “The last several years have presented significant and lasting challenges in the retail environment, which, coupled with our current financial position and constrained inventory levels, forced us to take this step.”

Joann’s more than 800 stores and websites will remain open throughout the bankruptcy process, the company said, and employees will continue to receive pay and benefits. The Hudson, Ohio-based company was founded in 1943 and has stores in 49 states, including several in Southern California.

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According to court documents, Joann began receiving unpredictable and inconsistent deliveries of yarn and sewing items from its suppliers, making it difficult to keep its shelves stocked. Joann’s suppliers also discontinued certain items the retailer relied on.

Along with the “unanticipated inventory challenges,” Joann and other retailers face pressure from inflation-wary consumers and interest rates that were for a time the highest in decades. The crafts supplier has also been hindered by competition from others in the space, including Michael’s, Etsy and Hobby Lobby, said Retail Wire Chief Executive Dominick Miserandino.

“It did not necessarily learn to evolve like its nearby competitors,” Miserandino said of Joann. “Not many people have heard of Joann in the way they’ve heard of Michael’s.”

Joann is not the first retailer to continue to struggle after going through bankruptcy. The party supply chain Party City announced last month it would be shutting down operations, after filing for and emerging from Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2023.

Over the last two years, more than 60 companies have filed for bankruptcy for a second or third time, Bloomberg reported, based on information from BankruptcyData. That’s the most over a comparable period since 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic kept shoppers home.

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Discount chain Big Lots filed for bankruptcy last September, and the Container Store, a retailer offering storage and organization products, declared bankruptcy last month. Companies that rely heavily on brick-and-mortar locations are scrambling to keep up with online retailers and big-box chains. Fast-casual restaurants such as Red Lobster and Rubio’s Coastal Grill have also struggled.

High prices have prompted consumers to pull back on discretionary spending, while rising operating and labor costs put additional pressure on businesses, experts said. The U.S. annual inflation rate for 2024 was 2.9%, down from 3.4% in 2023. But inflation has been on the rise since September and remains above the Federal Reserve’s goal of 2%.

If a sale process for Joann is approved, Gordon Brothers Retail Partners would serve as the stalking-horse bidder and set the floor for the auction.

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U.S. Sues Southwest Airlines Over Chronic Delays

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U.S. Sues Southwest Airlines Over Chronic Delays

The federal government sued Southwest Airlines on Wednesday, accusing the airline of harming passengers who flew on two routes that were plagued by consistent delays in 2022.

In a lawsuit, the Transportation Department said it was seeking more than $2.1 million in civil penalties over the flights between airports in Chicago and Oakland, Calif., as well as Baltimore and Cleveland, that were chronically delayed over five months that year.

“Airlines have a legal obligation to ensure that their flight schedules provide travelers with realistic departure and arrival times,” the transportation secretary, Pete Buttigieg, said in a statement. “Today’s action sends a message to all airlines that the department is prepared to go to court in order to enforce passenger protections.”

Carriers are barred from operating unrealistic flight schedules, which the Transportation Department considers an unfair, deceptive and anticompetitive practice. A “chronically delayed” flight is defined as one that operates at least 10 times a month and is late by at least 30 minutes more than half the time.

In a statement, Southwest said it was “disappointed” that the department chose to sue over the flights that took place more than two years ago. The airline said it had operated 20 million flights since the Transportation Department enacted its policy against chronically delayed flights more than a decade ago, with no other violations.

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“Any claim that these two flights represent an unrealistic schedule is simply not credible when compared with our performance over the past 15 years,” Southwest said.

Last year, Southwest canceled fewer than 1 percent of its flights, but more than 22 percent arrived at least 15 minutes later than scheduled, according to Cirium, an aviation data provider. Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, Alaska Airlines and American Airlines all had fewer such delays.

The lawsuit was filed in the United States District Court for the Northern District of California. In it, the government said that a Southwest flight from Chicago to Oakland arrived late 19 out of 25 trips in April 2022, with delays averaging more than an hour. The consistent delays continued through August of that year, averaging an hour or more. On another flight, between Baltimore and Cleveland, average delay times reached as high as 96 minutes per month during the same period. In a statement, the department said that Southwest, rather than poor weather or air traffic control, was responsible for more than 90 percent of the delays.

“Holding out these chronically delayed flights disregarded consumers’ need to have reliable information about the real arrival time of a flight and harmed thousands of passengers traveling on these Southwest flights by causing disruptions to travel plans or other plans,” the department said in the lawsuit.

The government said Southwest had violated federal rules 58 times in August 2022 after four months of consistent delays. Each violation faces a civil penalty of up to $37,377, or more than $2.1 million in total, according to the lawsuit.

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The Transportation Department on Wednesday also said that it had penalized Frontier Airlines for chronically delayed flights, fining the airline $650,000. Half that amount was paid to the Treasury and the rest is slated to be forgiven if the airline has no more chronically delayed flights over the next three years.

This month, the department ordered JetBlue Airways to pay a $2 million fine for failing to address similarly delayed flights over a span of more than a year ending in November 2023, with half the money going to passengers affected by the delays.

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