Business
Stocks and Oil Prices Sent Conflicting Signals in April Amid Havoc of Iran War
Lately, financial markets appear confused.
Oil prices recently hit their highest level since the start of the war in Iran, stoking broad worries about inflation and a global energy crisis.
Yet, it has been the best month for the stock market of President Trump’s second term. The S&P 500 ended April nearly 10 percent higher than where it ended March.
The last time the index rose more than 10 percent in a month was in November 2020, after Joseph R. Biden Jr. was elected president and early trials for Covid-19 vaccines showed promising results. On Friday, the S&P 500 rose a further 0.5 percent, putting it on course for a fifth straight week of gains.
To many outside observers, it seems incongruous that the oil market can be sending such a dour signal, while stocks reflect a strong sense of investor optimism.
But in this unusual moment, according to analysts and traders, bullish and bearish market signals can both be true.
While the stock market reacts to day-to-day news, it is primarily concerned with how that news affects the longer-term outlook for company earnings. Stocks initially fell when the United States and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, reflecting uncertainty about the war’s duration, its impact on energy supplies and the fallout for corporate America.
Stocks began to rise again after the Trump administration and Iran started to de-escalate at the end of March, moving toward a cease-fire on April 8. The standoff between the countries has not ended, a peace agreement has not been reached, but for stock investors, the expectation is that the disruption to oil markets and supply chains won’t last much longer.
And the economic impact of the war, at least as far as the United States is concerned, has been manageable. Data on Thursday showed that the U.S. economy grew at an annual pace of 2 percent in the first three months of this year, boosted by spending on infrastructure by many of the big tech companies that have led the S&P 500 stock index to repeated new highs.
This week, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta, which collectively account for 20 percent of the S&P 500’s market value, said they had spent a combined $130 billion on data centers. The share prices of these members of the so-called Magnificent 7, a group of companies that also include Apple, Nvidia and Tesla, rose nearly 15 percent in April.
Strong earnings in other industries have also buoyed the market. Roughly a third of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported their financial results for the first quarter, and their average growth in earnings stands at roughly 15 percent, on course for a sixth straight double-digit quarterly rise.
Oil prices are a much shorter-term measure of investor sentiment than stock indexes. The oil market is primarily traded using futures contracts, which are derivatives that fix the price today for delivery at a specified date in the future. The most frequently cited oil prices refer to the next month or two. That means that changes in the conflict that could extend or shorten its duration by a few weeks show up in the price of oil but not necessarily in the stock market. Oil traders are fixated on the price of a barrel of crude in July, for example, while pension fund managers are thinking about market returns many years in the future.
This week, a deadlock over the future of Iran’s nuclear program appeared to threaten the fragile cease-fire with the United States, helping to push the price of Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, to a four-year high, of over $120 per barrel on Thursday.
But investors appear to anticipate some sort of resolution the further out they look. Futures contracts for deliveries of Brent crude in December still trade below $90 a barrel.
“While the geopolitical environment remains fluid on a day-to-day basis, markets appear to be assigning a higher probability to a relatively near-term U.S. exit from the Middle East, alongside a normalization in global supply chains that could ultimately pressure oil prices lower,” said Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial.
The timing of the Trump administration’s announcements of important changes in policy in the conflict with Iran have, to some extent, exacerbated the appearance of market moves — both on the way down and the way back up.
The war began after the market closed on the final day of February and the cease-fire was announced on the final day of March, so the stock market’s losses were concentrated in March and the recovery almost entirely captured in April.
There are reasons for trepidation among stock investors as the war enters its third month.
The conflict could drag on for longer than is currently expected. Oil prices with Brent futures contracts from September through November have all started to rise, moving above $90 in just over the past week. Although that means traders still expect the price of oil to drift downward in the coming months, crude is increasingly expected to stay elevated for longer, weighing on the economy. The government’s bond market also shows signs of lingering inflation risks stemming from the war, analysts have noted.
Many investors have also expressed a lack of conviction in the current rally, which is evident in the way investors are trading. Stock market trading volumes have been subdued through April, with some investors saying they have turned to the derivatives market to place bets on the market going higher, allowing them to profit if the rally continues but limit losses if the market falls again.
“As long as the economy continues to grow and companies are able to grow earnings, we can see higher stock prices even in the face of higher energy prices and inflation,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management. “However, the longer the war drags on, the more investors will grow nervous and we could see some pullbacks as fears ebb and flow.”
Business
Joby Aviation creates a joint venture with Toyota to build air taxis
The race to bring air travel to the sky is heating up as Santa Cruz-based Joby Aviation and Toyota launch a joint venture to commercially produce air taxis.
The companies said in a news release Tuesday that they will work together on productivity, quality and costs and move toward mass production of Joby’s electric vertical takeoff aircraft. Joby and Toyota were first linked when Toyota made a nearly $400-million investment in the company in 2020. It has since increased its backing of the company to $900 million.
“It’s really meaningful for us to take on this challenge together with Joby, a partner that shares the same vision,” Toyota Chair Akio Toyoda said. “We believe this strengthened relationship is an important step forward in realizing the future mobility society.”
Joby‘s all-electric vertical takeoff vehicles are designed to hold four passengers and a pilot and can travel at up to 200 mph. The vehicle uses six tilting propellers to achieve vertical takeoff before switching to forward flight.
In February, Joby announced a partnership with Uber to start service in the United Arab Emirates this year, bringing on-demand air taxi rides to the country. It plans to expand to the U.S. after the completion of its final stage of Federal Aviation Administration testing.
Prior to its full FAA certification, Joby is hoping to launch early flight operations later this year as part of a White House program that will bring flights to several states, including New York, Texas and Arizona. Flights in California will not begin until after obtaining FAA certification.
Joby has been in a fierce battle to be the first with taxis in the sky with its Northern California competitor Archer Aviation. The two companies are involved in overlapping lawsuits, with Joby alleging corporate espionage against Archer, and Archer filing a suit alleging dubious ties to China that sparked an investigation into Joby by the U.S. International Trade Commission.
“Toyota has been by Joby’s side for nearly a decade, providing invaluable guidance and support as we built the foundation for manufacturing our aircraft,” JoeBen Bevirt, Joby’s chief executive and founder, said in the news release. “Together, we share a vision of making aerial mobility an everyday reality, and we look forward to delivering on that promise together.”
Joby Aviation’s shares, which have fallen more than 30% this year, climbed 3% on Tuesday to $8.92.
Business
Disneyland to offer $59 evening tickets next month
Disneyland Resort in Anaheim will offer $59 tickets for select evening admission to either theme park as part of a new promotion.
The one-day, one-park evening ticket offer will allow attendees to enter Disney California Adventure at 5 p.m. or Disneyland at 7 p.m. Park reservations are still required, as has been the case since the COVID-19 pandemic.
The offer only applies for admission from July 12 through Aug. 5 on Sundays to Wednesdays.
Disneyland Resort is commemorating its 70th anniversary through Aug. 9, and has introduced new shows and additions to rides as part of the occasion.
Walt Disney Co.’s theme parks and experiences business are a crucial boost to its finances, making up about 56% of the company’s operating income last fiscal year.
During the Burbank-based company’s most recent earnings call in May, Disney executives said attendance at its U.S.-based parks was down 1% compared with the prior year, a shift they attributed to “continued softness” in international visitations. However, the company said at the time that it was starting to move past those issues.
Disney’s experiences division reported $9.5 billion in revenue in that fiscal second quarter, up 7% compared with the same period a year ago, something executives said was due to higher guest spending domestically and more capacity on its cruise line.
Business
Downtown L.A. World Trade Center to become affordable apartments
An aging downtown office complex will be converted into apartments as part of an ambitious plan by local real estate companies to create 4,000 affordable housing units in Los Angeles.
The first project will be a $200-million makeover of the L.A. World Trade Center, a sprawling white elephant of an office complex on Figueroa Street built in the 1970s that will be turned into 512 apartments in one of the largest affordable housing conversions to date downtown.
Future projects being planned in the central city for delivery over the next five years will include other office-to-apartment conversions and new housing built from the ground up.
The 10-story World Trade Center, right, at Figueroa and Fourth streets in downtown Los Angeles, was built in the mid-1970s.
(Myung J. Chun / Los Angeles Times)
Behind the building campaign unveiled Monday are two of the region’s largest real estate companies, Jamison and Kennedy Wilson. Jamison is the city’s most prolific converter of offices to market-rate apartments and currently has a major makeover of a downtown office skyscraper underway for tenants who can pay top rents.
Kennedy Wilson, a real estate investment company based in Beverly Hills, owns Vintage Housing, which builds and operates affordable housing using tax credits and other state and federal financing to help fund it.
Vintage Housing and Jamison’s new affordable housing division, Arden Residential, will take on the campaign to build the housing where qualified tenants will pay rents below market rates.
Rents in the World Trade Center — which will be renamed Sky Castle when it opens in early 2028 — are expected to start at $937 for a one-bedroom unit. Some two- and three-bedroom units would rent for $1,100 and $1,300 per month, respectively, developers said.
Sky Castle will have shared amenities found in more expensive modern apartments, the developers said, such as a fitness center, resident lounge and co-working space. It already has six tennis courts on the roof, which may be converted to pickleball courts, Jamison Chief Executive Garrett Lee said.
The goal is to build higher quality affordable housing by using efficient construction methods Jamison has learned through building more than 8,000 market-rate apartments in the past, Lee said. The makeover of the World Trade Center will mark Jamison’s 15th conversion of an office building to housing.
The plan to redevelop the L.A. World Trade Center, bottom left, is one of the largest affordable housing conversions to date downtown.
(Myung J. Chun / Los Angeles Times)
The 10-story World Trade Center was built in the mid-1970s to fanfare saying it would be home to international companies. In 1976, The Times described the center as a place to prepare for an overseas trip where visitors could get passports and visas, as well as exchange dollars for francs, marks, rubles and other currency. There was a language school and branches of U.S., Swiss and Japanese banks.
By the mid-1980s, the 400,000-square-foot office complex covering a city block at Figueroa and Fourth streets had lost its international flavor and was falling out of favor with corporate tenants who were moving into glossy new skyscrapers on Bunker Hill and in other locations.
The building has been cleared of remaining office tenants to allow work to begin in August, Lee said.
Kennedy Wilson is a nationwide operator of market-rate apartments that has also moved into building affordable housing in the last decade, said Nicholas Bridges, global head of capital markets at the company.
Building affordable, workforce housing “in almost all cases requires public subsidies,” Bridges said, and Kennedy Wilson has developed expertise in assembling “a cocktail of public financing sources” that includes low-income housing tax credits and tax-exempt bonds.
In the past, many housing developers have shied away from building affordable housing because assembling the subsidies needed to make construction profitable is challenging.
An artist’s rendering shows what the L.A. World Trade Center could look like after being redeveloped into affordable housing. The new complex is to be called Sky Castle.
(Ian Camarillo)
“It’s complicated,” Bridges said, “and not for the faint of heart.”
Eligible tenants must earn between 30% and 80% of the median income in the area where the housing is built.
Jamison and Kennedy Wilson will develop about 15 affordable housing projects between downtown and the 405 Freeway, Bridges said, many of them in aging office buildings such as the World Trade Center that are already owned by Jamison and are close to public transit.
Substantial potential for affordable housing lies in L.A.’s underused office buildings, he said.
“In this post-COVID world, the way people are utilizing office buildings, particularly older office buildings, has just fundamentally changed,” he said.
It makes sense for developers of conventional multifamily housing to move to building affordable housing, Lee said, because the government supports it through subsidies, zoning reform and the fast-tracking of construction permits. The city of Los Angeles also recently streamlined its adaptive reuse rules to make it easier to convert office buildings to housing.
“There are a lot of incentives pushing us in this direction,” Lee said.
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