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Italy Is Haunted by the Pain of Past Economic Crises

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Italy Is Haunted by the Pain of Past Economic Crises

TREVISO, Italy — Within the flat plains of Italy’s Veneto area, in a small city about 20 miles north of Venice, Antonio Carpenedo has been growing uncommon strategies of constructing cheese. At La Casearia Carpenedo, wheels of cheese are dunked and aged in wine — purple, white and Prosecco — whereas others are coated in hay and aged in barrels.

Mr. Carpenedo constructed this “drunken cheese” firm out of the particles of monetary catastrophe. Within the Eighties, rising rates of interest shattered his earlier cheese-making enterprise. “They bled us dry,” he stated, recalling charges of 27 p.c. The enterprise needed to be bought, and he began over.

Right now, concern of one other monetary disaster triggered by rising rates of interest and financial uncertainty haunts his sons, who run the corporate, and has paralyzed their funding plans.

“The charges are rising, and we have no idea what’s going to occur,” stated one of many sons, Ernesto Carpenedo. “If we attain the charges that we had within the ’80s, it’s devastating, and also you principally kill the corporate.”

For the previous decade, rates of interest within the 19 nations that use the euro have been at file low ranges, and the European Central Financial institution has designed applications to encourage banks to lend generously to companies. Now, with inflation surging throughout the bloc, the central financial institution is altering tack, tightening financing situations in preparation for the European Central Financial institution’s first enhance in rates of interest in 11 years, which is ready to occur on Thursday.

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This transformation is being felt acutely in Italy, the eurozone’s third largest financial system and a frequent supply of political and financial complications for the area. The central financial institution’s withdrawal of simple cash over the previous few months has resurrected traders’ unease about Italy’s excessive stage of debt and its dedication to financial reforms.

Final month, yields on the federal government’s debt, a measure of a rustic’s borrowing prices that additionally function a benchmark for different loans, rose sharply. At about 150 p.c of gross home product, Italy’s debt burden is the second highest within the eurozone.

Italy “is systemically essential to the financial union due to its dimension,” stated Sarah Carlson, the lead analyst for Italy’s sovereign score at Moody’s.

Rising borrowing prices are starting to emerge as a priority throughout the continent. The European Central Financial institution has acted later than lots of its worldwide counterparts to deal with inflation, citing the truth that a lot of the worth pressures have been “imported,” the results of world provide chain disruptions and rising power fees exacerbated by the conflict in Ukraine. Now, amid indicators that giant worth will increase danger changing into entrenched within the financial system, policymakers have been pushed into motion.

In Italy, firms are used to navigating lengthy stretches of lackluster financial progress and political upheaval. What’s new is the sudden burst of inflation and the tip of ultralow rates of interest.

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For the reason that euro was launched a bit of greater than 20 years in the past, inflation and rates of interest have been low, making it simple to search out the sources to increase, stated Livio Libralesso, the chief govt of Geox, the footwear model based in 1995 in Montebelluna. The town has turn into a hub for shoe manufacturing within the Veneto area.

Corporations now not wanted to battle devaluations of the lira or massive fluctuations in foreign money worth with neighboring nations, and Geox may deal with innovation. It was “a type of heaven,” he stated.

The euro’s weak spot has been intensified by worries that Europe will drop right into a recession due to power provide disruptions. However Italy’s outlook is especially difficult. The European Fee forecast that Italy could have the slowest financial progress within the bloc subsequent 12 months, simply 0.9 p.c, due to a decline in shopper spending as households reduce, and fewer enterprise funding due to weaker demand and rising price of borrowing.

There’s a danger that Italy’s outlook may flip even worse due to the nation’s dependence on Russian power. Earlier than Russia invaded Ukraine, Italy acquired 40 p.c of its imported gasoline provide from Russia; that has been reduce to about 25 p.c.

Final week, with little warning, an period of political stability and financial reform got here below risk: Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s technocrat-led coalition authorities gave the impression to be on the point of collapsing after simply 17 months, when Mr. Draghi tried to give up amid political stalemates.

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“You possibly can at all times belief Italian politics to throw a curveball,” stated Federico Santi, an analyst at Eurasia Group. It raised the priority about whether or not a brand new authorities would proceed to undertake the reforms wanted to obtain European Union pandemic aid funds, price about 200 billion euros. The Italian parliament votes this week on the way forward for the federal government.

The Veneto area is an industrial space and well-known for its Prosecco, however its resilience to financial downturns and political upheaval will probably be examined by the darkening outlook for the worldwide financial system.

In recent times the Carraro Group, which makes and exports elements for tractors, has steadily continued its restoration from the 2008 monetary disaster, profiting from low rates of interest to promote bonds to restructure its debt after which to speculate. This 12 months the corporate, outdoors Padua, deliberate to refinance a few of its debt by borrowing €120 million, anticipating to get higher phrases than the three.5 p.c it was paying on its earlier bonds.

However at 8:30 a.m. on the day Padua executives opened the ebook for orders, they needed to shut it once more. It was Feb. 24, and Russia had simply invaded Ukraine. Now the corporate’s refinancing plan is on maintain.

Nonetheless, the extra urgent drawback for the Carraro Group is the rising price of working its enterprise. The rise in gasoline and energy fees would have price the corporate €116 million this 12 months if it hadn’t been ready to make use of its monetary buying and selling division in Luxembourg to hedge towards rising costs. As an alternative, power will price Carraro €5 million extra.

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“The second may be very tough and really difficult,” stated Enrico Carraro, the chairman of the corporate. “There are all of the elements on this second to have a giant and deep disaster. Possibly the center of the storm isn’t going to hit in such a powerful method, however we have to be prepared.”

For smaller firms, there are fewer methods to hedge towards rising prices. About 12 miles north of Carraro’s headquarters in Castello di Godego, Stocco, a producer of steel furnishings, has seen the price of the iron it wants greater than double since October.

CNA Treviso, an affiliation for small and medium-size companies within the area that additionally helps firms get credit score at low charges, estimates that firms are experiencing price inflation of between 15 p.c and 25 p.c. Most of that is because of excessive power fees.

With a lot uncertainty about the way forward for power and commodity costs, it’s a problem for companies which have restricted flexibility in setting costs to know what to do subsequent. Gianpaolo Stocco, a co-owner of the furnishings firm, stated industrial prospects had been awaiting Stocco’s costs for subsequent 12 months’s catalogs.

Costs may hold going greater, however “if I take advantage of the present worth I is also out of the market in 2023 if it goes down once more,” Mr. Stocco stated.

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Inflation in Italy is 8.5 p.c however Mr. Stocco expects the inflation his firm experiences to proceed to be even greater subsequent 12 months.

He’s telling prospects that Stocco’s costs will rise 10 p.c.

Expectations for such excessive inflation are dangerous for the central financial institution. The longer term path of inflation has a psychological part; greater costs can turn into self-fulfilling if firms and households count on them and set greater costs and demand greater wages in response.

Economists don’t count on rates of interest to rise in Europe anyplace close to the degrees of the Eighties, when double-digit charges had been the norm, as recession predictions develop and slender the window for fee will increase. However the mixture of excessive power costs, excessive inflation and gradual financial progress has created large uncertainty for companies that can’t predict when provide chain disruptions will ease.

La Casearia Carpenedo, the cheese maker, expanded and invested quickly in the course of the interval of low rates of interest, borrowing to suit roofs with photo voltaic panels and construct equipment to scrub the barrels. Over the previous decade, it has spent greater than half one million euros on investments. Now, new investments have been placed on maintain, halting the household’s hopes of opening a college to coach new cheese makers, shopping for land to develop its personal grapes and creating an herb backyard.

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These challenges are layered on high of the existential questions companies typically ask themselves about the way forward for their trade.

At La Casearia Carpenedo, there appear to be two stark choices: Return to small artisan producer or leap to massive worldwide firm? “That is the query that we’re assessing,” Ernesto Carpenedo stated. However “it isn’t simple at the moment to grasp what’s going to occur tomorrow.”

Elisabetta Povoledo contributed reporting from Rome.

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U.S. Sues Southwest Airlines Over Chronic Delays

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U.S. Sues Southwest Airlines Over Chronic Delays

The federal government sued Southwest Airlines on Wednesday, accusing the airline of harming passengers who flew on two routes that were plagued by consistent delays in 2022.

In a lawsuit, the Transportation Department said it was seeking more than $2.1 million in civil penalties over the flights between airports in Chicago and Oakland, Calif., as well as Baltimore and Cleveland, that were chronically delayed over five months that year.

“Airlines have a legal obligation to ensure that their flight schedules provide travelers with realistic departure and arrival times,” the transportation secretary, Pete Buttigieg, said in a statement. “Today’s action sends a message to all airlines that the department is prepared to go to court in order to enforce passenger protections.”

Carriers are barred from operating unrealistic flight schedules, which the Transportation Department considers an unfair, deceptive and anticompetitive practice. A “chronically delayed” flight is defined as one that operates at least 10 times a month and is late by at least 30 minutes more than half the time.

In a statement, Southwest said it was “disappointed” that the department chose to sue over the flights that took place more than two years ago. The airline said it had operated 20 million flights since the Transportation Department enacted its policy against chronically delayed flights more than a decade ago, with no other violations.

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“Any claim that these two flights represent an unrealistic schedule is simply not credible when compared with our performance over the past 15 years,” Southwest said.

Last year, Southwest canceled fewer than 1 percent of its flights, but more than 22 percent arrived at least 15 minutes later than scheduled, according to Cirium, an aviation data provider. Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, Alaska Airlines and American Airlines all had fewer such delays.

The lawsuit was filed in the United States District Court for the Northern District of California. In it, the government said that a Southwest flight from Chicago to Oakland arrived late 19 out of 25 trips in April 2022, with delays averaging more than an hour. The consistent delays continued through August of that year, averaging an hour or more. On another flight, between Baltimore and Cleveland, average delay times reached as high as 96 minutes per month during the same period. In a statement, the department said that Southwest, rather than poor weather or air traffic control, was responsible for more than 90 percent of the delays.

“Holding out these chronically delayed flights disregarded consumers’ need to have reliable information about the real arrival time of a flight and harmed thousands of passengers traveling on these Southwest flights by causing disruptions to travel plans or other plans,” the department said in the lawsuit.

The government said Southwest had violated federal rules 58 times in August 2022 after four months of consistent delays. Each violation faces a civil penalty of up to $37,377, or more than $2.1 million in total, according to the lawsuit.

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The Transportation Department on Wednesday also said that it had penalized Frontier Airlines for chronically delayed flights, fining the airline $650,000. Half that amount was paid to the Treasury and the rest is slated to be forgiven if the airline has no more chronically delayed flights over the next three years.

This month, the department ordered JetBlue Airways to pay a $2 million fine for failing to address similarly delayed flights over a span of more than a year ending in November 2023, with half the money going to passengers affected by the delays.

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California drops zero-emission truck rules after inaction by Biden's EPA

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California drops zero-emission truck rules after inaction by Biden's EPA

California government’s plan to phase out heavy-duty diesel trucks and diesel locomotives has been derailed.

The ambitious plan aimed at reducing local pollution and global greenhouse gases required special waivers from the federal government. The Biden administration hadn’t granted the waivers as of this week, and rather than face almost certain denial by the incoming Trump administration, the state withdrew its waiver request.

That means the far-reaching regulations issued by the California Air Resources Board in 2022 to ban new diesel truck sales by 2036 and force fleet owners to take them off the road by 2042 won’t be enforced. Known as the Advanced Clean Fleets rule, the idea was to replace those trucks with electric and hydrogen-powered versions, which dramatically reduce emissions but are currently two to three times more expensive.

“While we are disappointed that U.S. EPA was unable to act on all the requests in time, the withdrawal is an important step given the uncertainty presented by the incoming administration that previously attacked California’s programs to protect public health and the climate and has said will continue to oppose those programs,” CARB Chair Liane Randolph said in a prepared statement.

Environmentalists reacted with deep disappointment.

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“To meet basic standards for healthy air, California has to shift to zero-emissions trucks and trains in the coming years. Diesel is one of the most dangerous kinds of air pollution for human health,” Paul Cort, director of Earthjustice’s Right to Zero campaign, said in a prepared statement. “We’ll be working tirelessly in the coming years — and calling on Gov. [Gavin] Newsom, state legislators, and our air quality regulators to join us — to clean up our freight system and fix the mess [U.S.] EPA’s inaction has created.”

The trucking industry is pleased at the result, but hopes to continue working with California on environmental issues.

“This rule was flawed, and was not reflective of reality,” said Matt Schrap, chief executive at the Harbor Trucking Assn. “Ideally this is an opportunity to take a step back and look at a program that would be more sustainable.”

Trucking representatives had filed a lawsuit to block the rules, arguing they would cause irreparable harm to the industry and the wider economy. Train operators said no zero-emission locomotives exist on the commercial market.

Schrap said “the most important thing is the EPA could have issued the waiver and they didn’t.”

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The EPA said it acknowledges California’s withdrawal of the waiver requests “and as a result is taking no further action on CARB’s prior requests and considers these matters closed.”

President-elect Donald Trump is a champion of the fossil fuel industry, making it unlikely that his administration would have approved the California waivers. The state could, however, pursue waivers at some point in the future.

Under the federal Clean Air Act, California is allowed to set its own air standards, and other states are allowed to follow California’s lead. But federal government waivers are required. Most of California’s waivers have been granted, including approval in December of a California ban on new sales of gas-powered cars and light trucks by 2035.

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Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg and Jeff Bezos to Attend Trump’s Inauguration

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Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg and Jeff Bezos to Attend Trump’s Inauguration

Corporate America had already raced to donate big sums to Donald Trump’s record-breaking inaugural fund. Now some of its leaders appear eager to jockey for prominent positions at the inauguration next week.

It’s a new reminder that for some of the nation’s biggest businesses, forging close ties to a president-elect who is promising hard-hitting policies like tariffs is a priority this time around.

Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg are expected to be on the inauguration dais, according to NBC News, alongside Elon Musk and several cabinet picks.

The presence of Musk isn’t a surprise, given the Tesla chief’s significant support of and huge influence over Trump. But the other tech moguls have only more recently been seen as supporters of the administration. (Indeed, Bezos frequently sparred with Trump during his first presidential term.)

It’s the latest effort by Bezos and Zuckerberg to burnish their Trump credentials. At the DealBook Summit in December, Bezos — whose Amazon has faced scrutiny under the Biden administration and whose Blue Origin is hoping to win government rocket contracts — said that he was “very hopeful” about Trump’s efforts to reduce regulation.

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And Zuckerberg recently announced significant changes to Meta’s content moderation policy, including relaxing restrictions on speech seen as protecting groups including L.G.B.T.Q. people that won praise from Trump and other conservatives. On the inauguration front, Zuckerberg is also co-hosting a reception alongside the longtime Trump backers Miriam Adelson, Tilman Fertitta and Todd Ricketts.

Both tech moguls have visited Mar-a-Lago since the election, with Zuckerberg having done so more than once.

Coca-Cola took a different tack. The drinks giant’s C.E.O., James Quincey, gave Trump what an aide called the “first ever Presidential Commemorative Inaugural Diet Coke bottle.”

More broadly, business leaders want a piece of the inauguration action. The Times previously reported that the Trump inaugural fund had surpassed $170 million, a record, and that even major donors have been wait-listed for events.

Others are throwing unofficial events around Washington, including an “Inaugural Crypto Ball” that will feature Snoop Dogg, with tickets starting at $5,000, The Wall Street Journal reports.

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It’s a reminder that C.E.O.s are reading the room, and preparing their companies for a president who has proposed creating an “External Revenue Service” to oversee what he has promised will be wide-ranging tariffs.

David Urban, a longtime Trump adviser who’s hosting a pre-inauguration event, told The Journal, “This is the world order, and if we’re going to succeed, we need to get with the world order.”

  • In other Trump news: The president-elect is expected to appear via videoconference at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, which starts on Inauguration Day, according to Semafor.

Investors brace for the latest inflation data. The Consumer Price Index report, due out at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, is expected to show that inflation ticked up last month, most likely because of climbing food and fuel costs. Global bond markets have been rattled as slow progress on slowing inflation has prompted the Fed to slash its forecast for interest rate cuts.

More Trump cabinet picks will appear before the Senate on Wednesday. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, the choice for secretary of state, is expected to field questions about his views on the Middle East, Ukraine and China, but is expected to be confirmed. Russell Vought, the pick to run the Office of Management and Budget, will most likely be asked about his advocacy for drastically shrinking the federal government, a key Trump objective. And Sean Duffy, the Fox Business host chosen to lead the Transportation Department, will probably face questions on how he would oversee matters including aviation safety and autonomous vehicles, the latter of which is a priority for Elon Musk.

Meta plans to lay off another 5 percent of its employees. Mark Zuckerberg, the tech giant’s C.E.O., told staff members to prepare for “extensive performance-based cuts” as the company braces for “an intense year.” The social media giant faces intense competition in the race to commercialize artificial intelligence.

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A new bill would give TikTok a reprieve from a ban in the United States. Senator Ed Markey, Democrat of Massachusetts, said he planned to introduce the Extend the TikTok Deadline Act, which would give the video platform 270 additional days to be divested from its Chinese parent, ByteDance before being blacklisted. It’s the latest effort to buy TikTok time, as the app faces a Jan. 19 deadline set by a law; President-elect Donald Trump has opposed the potential ban as well.

JPMorgan Chase and BlackRock, the giant money manager, just reported earnings. (In short: Both handily beat analyst expectations.)

But the Wall Street giants are likely to face questioning on a particular issue on Wednesday: Which top lieutenants are in line to replace their larger-than-life C.E.O.s, Jamie Dimon and Larry Fink.

Who’s out:

  • Daniel Pinto, who had long been Dimon’s right-hand man, said he would officially drop his responsibilities as JPMorgan’s C.O.O. in June and retire at the end of 2026. Jenn Piepszak, the co-C.E.O. of the company’s core commercial and investment bank, has become C.O.O.

  • And Mark Wiedman, the head of BlackRock’s global client business and a top contender to succeed Fink, is planning to leave, according to news reports.

What Wall Street is gossiping about JPMorgan: Even in taking the C.O.O. role, JPMorgan said that Piepszak wasn’t interested in succeeding Dimon “at this time.” DealBook hears that while she genuinely appears not to want to pursue the top job, the phrasing covers her in case she changes her mind.

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For now, that means the most likely candidates for the top spot are Marianne Lake, the company’s head of consumer and community banking; Troy Rohrbaugh, the other co-head of the commercial and investment bank; and Doug Petno, a co-head of global banking.

The buzz around BlackRock: Wiedman reportedly didn’t want to keep waiting to succeed Fink and is expected to seek a C.E.O. position elsewhere. (So sudden was his departure that he’s forfeiting about $8 million worth of stock options and, according to The Wall Street Journal, he doesn’t have another job lined up yet.)

Fink said on CNBC on Wednesday that Wiedman’s departure had been in the works for some time, with the executive having expressed a desire to leave about six months ago.

Other candidates to take over for Fink include Martin Small, BlackRock’s C.F.O.; Rob Goldstein, the firm’s C.O.O.; and Rachel Lord, the head of international.

But Dimon and Fink aren’t going anywhere just yet. Dimon, 68, said only last year that he might not be in the role in five years. And Fink, 72, said in July that he was working on succession planning: “When I do believe the next generation is ready, I’m out.”

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Another battle between Elon Musk and the S.E.C. erupted on Tuesday, with the agency suing the tech mogul over his 2022 purchase of Twitter.

It’s unclear what happens to the lawsuit once President-elect Donald Trump, who counts Musk as a close ally, takes office. But the agency’s reputation as an independent watchdog may be at stake.

A recap: The S.E.C. accused Musk of violating securities laws in his $44 billion acquisition of the social media company.

The agency said that Musk had failed to disclose his Twitter ownership stake for a pivotal 11-day stretch before revealing his intentions to purchase the company. That breach allowed him to buy up at least $150 million worth of Twitter shares at a lower price — to the detriment of existing shareholders, the agency argues.

The S.E.C. isn’t just seeking to fine Musk. It wants him to pay back the windfall. “That’s unusual,” Ann Lipton, a professor at Tulane Law School, told DealBook.

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Alex Spiro, Musk’s lawyer, called the latest action a “sham” and accused the agency of waging a “multiyear campaign of harassment” against him.

The showdown sets up a tough question for the S.E.C. Will Paul Atkins, the president-elect’s widely respected pick to lead the agency, drop the case? Such a move could call the bedrock principle of S.E.C. independence into question.

Jay Clayton, who led the agency during Trump’s first term, earned the respect of the business community for running it in a largely drama-free manner. It was under Clayton that the S.E.C. sued Musk over his statements about taking Tesla private.

Musk, who is set to become Trump’s cost-cutting czar and is expected to have office space in the White House complex, has called for the “comprehensive overhaul” of agencies like the S.E.C. The billionaire said he would also like to see “punitive action against those individuals who have abused their regulatory power for personal and political gain.”

  • In related news: The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau sued Capital One, accusing it of cheating its depositors out of $2 billion in interest payments.

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  • DAZN, the streaming network backed by the billionaire businessman Len Blavatnik, is closing in on funding from Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund as the kingdom continues to expand its sports footprint. (NYT)

  • The Justice Department sued KKR, accusing the investment giant of withholding information during government reviews for several of its deals. KKR filed a countersuit. (Bloomberg)

  • OpenAI added Adebayo Ogunlesi, the billionaire co-founder of the infrastructure investment firm Global Infrastructure Partners, to its board. (FT)

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