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More than a quarter of private colleges are at risk of closing, a new projection shows
Izzy Johnson, left, and Jack Beatson are first-year students at Sterling College in Craftsbury Common, Vt. The college has announced that it will close at the end of this semester.
Oliver Parini for The Hechinger Report
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Oliver Parini for The Hechinger Report
CRAFTSBURY COMMON, Vt. — More than a dozen newborn lambs cavorted around a fenced-in yard beneath the scrutiny of their mothers and a few watchful students taking turns attending to them.
The lambs’ successful births have been a needed bright spot at tiny Sterling College, which uses a 130-acre farm to teach agriculture and other disciplines in a part of northeastern Vermont so isolated there’s no cell service and it’s rare to see a passing car.
LillyAnne Keeley, a senior, likes that remoteness. “We have a beautiful view,” said Keeley, in the barn where she’s come for her turn checking on the lambs. “There are beautiful sunsets here. I kind of take it for granted every day.”
She and her classmates have started taking such experiences less for granted now, since Sterling has announced that it will close in May at the end of this semester.
They’re not the last students around the country who will suffer such disruption. A new estimate projects that 442 of the nation’s 1,700 private, nonprofit four-year colleges and universities, with a combined 670,000 students, are at risk of closing or having to merge within the next 10 years.
LillyAnne Keely holds a newborn lamb in the barn at Sterling College, which focuses on agriculture and related disciplines.
Oliver Parini for The Hechinger Report
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Oliver Parini for The Hechinger Report
More than 120 institutions are at the very highest risk, according to the forecast by Huron Consulting Group, which helps clients in industries including higher education formulate business strategies. For its assessment, the company analyzed enrollment trends, tuition revenue, assets, debt, cash on hand and other measures.
Many are, like Sterling, small and rural. “Now that this might be gone, I just really worry about some students out there that are going to have less and less choices,” Keeley said.
It’s a crisis whose magnitude has been overshadowed by political and culture-war attacks on higher education and is propelled by the simple law of supply and demand after a long decline in the number of Americans who are going to college.
“We have too many seats. We have too many classrooms,” Peter Stokes, a managing director at Huron, said of U.S. colleges and universities. “So over the coming five to 10 years, this shakeout is going to take place.”
Sterling — the seventh private college in Vermont to close since 2016 — offers a rare glimpse into the human impact of this trend. That’s because it gave students a final semester to stay and complete their degrees or transfer, rather than locking the doors with hardly any notice, as many other colleges have done.
Fewer than half of students at colleges that close continue their educations, according to the most comprehensive study of the issue, produced by the State Higher Education Executive Officers Association, or SHEEO. Of those who do, many lose credits they’ve already earned and paid for, and fewer than half eventually earn degrees.
Twenty-year-old Izzy Johnson has already been buffeted by this. The college he originally wanted to attend closed the month before he graduated from high school. So he enrolled as a freshman in the fall at Sterling — only to learn a few months later that it would also close.
Student Lew Collet works on his tractor skills at Sterling.
Oliver Parini for The Hechinger Report
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Oliver Parini for The Hechinger Report
“Having to pick up everything and find a new place to settle down is really miserable,” said Johnson, who studies agricultural and food systems — the process by which food is produced and consumed — and is weighing where to go next.
Started in 1958 as a prep school for boys, the remote rural college was never very large. Its enrollment peaked at 120 and fell to about 40 students this year, spread around a few white clapboard buildings indistinguishable from the houses of the surrounding farm town of about 1,300 people.
Those numbers weren’t sustainable, even at one of the nation’s nine so-called “work colleges,” whose undergraduates combine work and learning. At Sterling, they do this by pitching in on the farm and in the dorms and kitchen, said the college’s president, Scott Thomas. Though financial documents show Sterling had been breaking even, margins were thin.
In its last semester, the campus appeared surprisingly upbeat. At a weekly community meeting, students, faculty and staff lugged tables to the edge of the dining hall and formed a circle to talk about routine business, including warnings of bears coming out of hibernation and a reminder to provide contact information so everyone could stay in touch after commencement in May.
Students have decided “that we’re just going to have a really good last semester and go out on a really positive note,” said Keeley. Like several of her classmates, she is cramming to earn the credits needed to graduate this spring. “And I feel like we’ve been really able to do that so far, but it’s still really sad.”
Most said they were drawn here precisely because of the college’s small size and far-flung location.
“I don’t think I would have done well at a big, traditional college,” said Jack Beatson, a first-year student from California. “I just sort of get freaked out in a big space like that.”
As more small colleges close, said Keeley, it’s getting harder for students to find this kind of an alternative to what she called “the larger, monotonous type of education.”
Impact on the community
People around town are equally concerned — not only for the loss of jobs and spending, but an end to the pipeline through which many graduates have stayed to work or start businesses of their own.
“We always joke that Sterling kids stick around. But it’s true, they do, and they contribute to the community,” said Liz Chadwick, who moved from New Jersey in 2013 to finish her bachelor’s degree at the college, where she now teaches food systems. “They build families here.”
Losing colleges like Sterling “leaves craters in the small rural communities that they have been a part of for, in some instances, decades or a century,” said Thomas.
Liz Chadwick came to Sterling College as a student and, like many alumni, settled in the area; she now teaches food systems at the college. Graduates “build families here,” she says.
Oliver Parini for The Hechinger Report
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Oliver Parini for The Hechinger Report
There are about 3,700 two- and four-year public and private degree-granting colleges and universities in the United States. That’s already down from a peak of 4,726 in 2012. Almost all that have closed since then were private, for-profit schools, which enjoyed a brief boom before crashing under the weight of consumer discontent and increased regulation.
Many converging reasons explain why private, nonprofit colleges and universities, too, are now under existential strain.
There are already 2.3 million fewer students than there were in 2010. A drop in the birthrate that began around the same time means there is about to be a further downward slide in the number of 18-year-olds through at least 2041.
Among the other factors:
- The proportion of high school graduates who go on to college is also down, from 70% in 2016 to 61% in 2023, the most recent year for which the figure is available.
- The number of visas issued for new full-tuition-paying international students coming to the United States plummeted by nearly 100,000 this year, or 36%.
- And looming caps on federal loans for graduate study, which take effect in July, threaten to reduce demand for yet another crucial revenue source.
While higher education institutions previously weathered short-lived declines in enrollment and increases in costs, today “every major revenue stream and expense category is under pressure at the same time,” the higher education consulting firm EAB warns in a new analysis.
Eighty-six percent of college and university leaders are worried about their schools’ long-term financial viability, according to a survey in December by the American Council on Education, the principal industry association. A fifth of college and university presidents say they’ve had serious discussions about merging with another university or college, a separate survey by Hanover Research and the industry news site Inside Higher Ed found.
Signs of strain are spreading
And nearly a third of private, nonprofit colleges and universities nationwide posted deficits in 2024, according to research by Robert Kelchen, director of the Department of Educational Leadership and Policy Studies at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville.
And it’s not just small schools that are affected.
Even public universities and colleges are facing deepening financial problems, reports the Fitch bond-rating agency, citing slowing economic growth and federal policy changes.
The University of Southern California has sent pink slips to more than 900 employees. Stanford University, Northwestern University, and Depaul University have also seen layoffs.
And, as part of what its president called a “broader strategy to strengthen GW’s long-term financial health,” George Washington University announced in March that it had sold a satellite science and technology campus in Virginia for what the student newspaper reported was $427 million.
Community colleges, too — which enroll nearly 5.6 million students — are suffering financial squeezes that leave them less able to adapt or respond to change, according to Daniel Greenstein, former chancellor of the Pennsylvania State System of Higher Education, who now tracks financial exposure in the industry.
In the case of community colleges, wrote Greenstein, “The risk is not a sudden collapse of the sector. The risk is a slow erosion of capacity in precisely the institutions on which communities rely most.”
Still, after two and a half decades in which the price of tuition has increased faster than inflation, for a payoff many consumers no longer think is worth the money, higher education often gets little sympathy for its predicament — and even less after years of political and culture war attacks on the ideological leanings of faculty and leadership.
“Free market wins!” quipped one commenter on social media, in response to Sterling College’s announcement that it would close. “They woked themselves right out of business,” wrote another. Added a third: “Now where will they teach all the 20 year olds to protest and whine?”
Among its students, however, Sterling elicits something increasingly rare among higher education institutions: gratitude.
“I’m so glad I got to spend at least a year here,” said first-year student Jack Beatson. “Just feeling like you’re really part of something, and other people depend on you — that’s very important to young people especially, and today especially.”
Samuel Stover goes to Sterling College, which his mother also attended. He likes the size of the small school, where he has teachers “who I feel like I really connect with on a deeper level than just, ‘I’m a student and I hand in papers.’”
Oliver Parini for The Hechinger Report
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Oliver Parini for The Hechinger Report
Beatson is transferring to another small college in upstate New York. But even after Sterling closes, he said, “We’ll all take this place with us, wherever we end up.”
This story was produced by The Hechinger Report, a nonprofit, independent news organization focused on inequality and innovation in education. Contact writer Jon Marcus at 212-678-7556, jmarcus@hechingerreport.org or jpm.82 on Signal.
Virginians approved a new congressional map on Tuesday that would aggressively gerrymander the state in the Democrats’ favor, giving the party as many as four more U.S. House seats.
The new map draws eight safely Democratic districts and two competitive districts that lean Democratic, according to a New York Times analysis of 2024 presidential results. It leaves just one safe Republican seat, compared with the five seats the G.O.P. holds on the current map.
The proposed map was drawn by Democratic state legislators and approved by Gov. Abigail Spanberger, a Democrat. It eliminates three Republican-held seats in part by slicing the densely populated suburbs in Arlington and Fairfax Counties and reallocating their overwhelmingly Democratic voters into five congressional districts, some stretching more than a hundred miles into Republican areas.
Perhaps the most extreme new district is the Seventh, which begins at the Potomac River and stretches to the west and south in a manner that resembles a pair of lobster claws. Several well-known Virginia Democrats have already announced their candidacies and begun campaigning in the district.
Reid J. Epstein contributed reporting.
Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche speaks as FBI Director Kash Patel listens during a news conference at the Justice Department on Tuesday in Washington.
Jacquelyn Martin/AP
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Jacquelyn Martin/AP
WASHINGTON — The Southern Poverty Law Center was indicted Tuesday on federal fraud charges alleging it improperly raised millions of dollars to pay informants to infiltrate the Ku Klux Klan and other extremist groups, acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said.
The Justice Department alleges the civil rights group defrauded donors by using their money to fund the very extremism it claimed to be fighting, with payments of at least $3 million between 2014 and 2023 to people affiliated with the Ku Klux Klan, the United Klans of America, the National Socialist Party of America and other extremist groups.
“The SPLC was not dismantling these groups. It was instead manufacturing the extremism it purports to oppose by paying sources to stoke racial hatred,” Blanche said.
The civil rights group faces charges including wire fraud, bank fraud and conspiracy to commit money laundering in the case brought by the Justice Department in Alabama, where the organization is based.
The indictment came shortly after SPLC revealed the existence of a criminal investigation into its program to pay informants to infiltrate extremist groups and gather information on their activities. The group said the program was used to monitor threats of violence and the information was often shared with local and federal law enforcement.
SPLC CEO Bryan Fair said the organization “will vigorously defend ourselves, our staff, and our work.”
Blanche said the money was passed from the center through two different bank accounts before being loaded onto prepaid cards to give to the members of the extremist groups, which also included the National Socialist Movement and the Aryan Nations-affiliated Sadistic Souls Motorcycle Club. The group never disclosed to donors details of the informant program, he said.
“They’re required to under the laws associated with a nonprofit to have certain transparency and honesty in what they’re telling donors they’re going to spend money on and what their mission statement is and what they’re raising money doing,” he said.
The indictment includes details on at least nine unnamed informants were paid by the SPLC through a secret program that prosecutors say began in the 1980s. Within the SPLC, they were known as field sources or “the Fs,” according to the indictment. One informant was paid more than $1 million between 2014 and 2023 while affiliated with the neo-Nazi National Alliance, the indictment said. Another was the Imperial Wizard of the United Klans of America.
The SPLC said the program was kept quiet to protect the safety of informants.
“When we began working with informants, we were living in the shadow of the height of the Civil Rights Movement, which had seen bombings at churches, state-sponsored violence against demonstrators, and the murders of activists that went unanswered by the justice system,” Fair said. “There is no question that what we learned from informants saved lives.”
The center has been targeted by Republicans
The SPLC, which is based in Montgomery, Alabama, was founded in 1971 and used civil litigation to fight white supremacist groups. The nonprofit has become a popular target among Republicans who see it as overly leftist and partisan.
The investigation could add to concerns that Trump’s Republican administration is using the Justice Department to go after conservative opponents and his critics. It follows a number of other investigations into Trump foes that have raised questions about whether the law enforcement agency has been turned into a political weapon.
The SPLC has faced intense criticism from conservatives, who have accused it of unfairly maligning right-wing organizations as extremist groups because of their viewpoints. The center regularly condemns Trump’s rhetoric and policies around voting rights, immigration and other issues.
The center came under fresh scrutiny after the assassination last year of conservative activist Charlie Kirk brought renewed attention to its characterization of the group that Kirk founded and led. The center included a section on that group, Turning Point USA, in a report titled “The Year in Hate and Extremism 2024” that described the group as “A Case Study of the Hard Right in 2024.”
FBI Director Kash Patel said last year that the agency was severing its relationship with the center, which had long provided law enforcement with research on hate crime and domestic extremism. Patel said the center had been turned into a “partisan smear machine,” and he accused it of defaming “mainstream Americans” with its “hate map” that documents alleged anti-government and hate groups inside the United States.
House Republicans hosted a hearing centered on the SPLC in December, saying it coordinated efforts with President Joe Biden’s Democratic administration “to target Christian and conservative Americans and deprive them of their constitutional rights to free speech and free association.”
On the night of her resounding win in last fall’s election for Virginia governor, Abigail Spanberger told her supporters that they had sent a message to the world. “Virginia,” she said in the opening lines of her victory speech, “chose pragmatism over partisanship.”
But even then it was clear that the first big issue of her term would be as partisan as it gets: a proposed amendment by her fellow Democrats to allow them to gerrymander the state’s 11 congressional districts.
The push to redraw the Virginia map was another salvo in a barrage of redistricting spurred by President Trump in a bid to keep Republicans in control of the House in this year’s midterm elections.
Virginians vote on Tuesday on whether to adopt the proposed map, and if the “Yes” vote wins, Democrats could end up with as many as 10 seats, up from the six they hold now. The redistricting battles of the last year would end up in something of a draw, with gains for Democrats in California and Virginia offsetting gains for Republicans in Texas, Missouri and North Carolina — unless Florida lawmakers decide in the coming weeks to draw a new, more Republican-friendly map.
Historically, redrawing of congressional maps has been done each decade after the U.S. census. But with Republicans holding such a slim majority in the House, Mr. Trump began by pressing Texas to redraw its maps, touching off the wave of gerrymandering
Virginia Democratic legislators rolled out their redistricting plan last October, setting in motion the state’s lengthy amendment process just as the campaign for governor was entering its final weeks. At the time, Ms. Spanberger expressed support for the plan, though she emphasized that its passage was up to the legislature and then to the voters.
But even if her formal role in the process was relatively minor — Ms. Spanberger signed the bill setting the date for the referendum — the politics of the effort has loomed over the first few months of her term. Her support for the amendment has drawn accusations of hypocrisy from the right and complaints from some on the left that she has not been outspoken enough in her advocacy.
“There’s always going to be somebody who wants me to do something differently,” the governor said in an interview on Saturday at a rally in support of the amendment outside a home in Northern Virginia. “I will always make someone unhappy, and I will always make someone happy.”
Ms. Spanberger, a former C.I.A. officer and three-term congresswoman, won a 15-point victory in 2025 after running on a campaign focused on pocketbook issues. Centrism has been her political brand since she was first elected to the House in 2018, flipping a district that had long leaned to the right.
Now Republicans campaigning against the amendment have made Ms. Spanberger a prime target, deriding her as “Governor Bait-and-Switch” and highlighting an interview in August 2025 in which she said she had “no plans to redistrict Virginia.”
“This was the perfect opportunity for her to show that she is the middle-of-the-road suburban mom that she portrayed herself as,” said Glen Sturtevant, a Republican state senator. He dismissed the notion that this was an effort that had been thrust upon her, pointing out that she had signed the bill setting the date for the referendum. “She is certainly an active participant in this whole process,” he said.
Republicans have eagerly highlighted recent polls suggesting that Ms. Spanberger’s honeymoon is over, though because governors in Virginia cannot serve two consecutive terms, public approval is less of a pressure point than it might be elsewhere. Some of her political adversaries have tied the drop in her ratings to her involvement in the campaign for the amendment.
But a number of factors are at play in those sagging poll numbers. Some on the right are irked by her support of standard Democratic priorities like gun control measures and limits to cooperation with federal immigration agents.
But some of the most vociferous criticism of her from Republicans, up to and including the president, has been for a host of proposed taxes and tax hikes in the legislature — on everything from dog grooming to dry cleaning — that she in fact had nothing do with. Most of those taxes, which were floated by various lawmakers, never even came up for a vote.
But Ms. Spanberger did not publicly hit back against these attacks until recent days, a delay that some Democrats say was costly.
“She let other people define her,” said Scott Surovell, the State Senate majority leader.
Mr. Surovell’s frustration echoed a growing discontent among Democrats about the governor’s recent moves. For all the Republican criticism of her, some operatives and lawmakers said, Ms. Spanberger has not been aggressive enough in pushing for Democratic priorities, redistricting among them.
This criticism broke out into the open in recent days, after the governor made scores of amendments to bills that had passed the General Assembly. Some lawmakers and Democratic allies accused her of unexpectedly diluting long-sought goals like expanded public sector unions and a legal retail marketplace for cannabis.
“Our party base is looking for us to stand up and fight and advocate and deliver,” said Mr. Surovell, who represents a solidly Democratic district in Northern Virginia. “It’s hard to deliver when you’re standing in the middle of the road.”
In the interview, Ms. Spanberger insisted that she supported the purpose of many of the bills but had to make amendments to ensure that her administration could implement them.
And she said she had been explicit in her support of the redistricting effort, appearing in statewide TV ads encouraging people to vote “Yes” even as an anti-amendment campaign has sent out mailers suggesting that the governor opposes the effort.
But she said she had never been in a position to barnstorm the state as Gov. Gavin Newsom did in the months leading up to the redistricting referendum that passed in California. Mr. Newsom is a second-term governor in a much bluer state, she said, while she only recently took office and has been “in the crush of their legislative session,” with hundreds of bills to read and examine in a short period.
“Those who may not be focused on the governing and only on the politics, they’re going to want me to do politics 100 percent of the time,” she said. “And for people who care about the governing and not the politics, they’re going to want me to do governing 100 percent of the time.”
Her preference, as she has often made apparent, is for the governing over the politicking. But she acknowledged that it is all part of the job.
Asked if she lamented that the highest-profile issue of her term so far was such a polarizing matter, rather than the cost-of-living policies she emphasized on the campaign trail, she said: “Any person in elected office wants to talk about the thing they want to talk about all the time, and that’s it. So I won’t say ‘No’ to that question.”
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