This could be the year that a brewing crisis along the Colorado River comes to a head. Roughly a third of Flaming Gorge Reservoir could be drained to make up for increasingly desperate downriver water shortages.

“Things are bad in the Upper Green (river drainage). They’re horrible everywhere else,” said Wyoming Senior Assistant Attorney General Chris Brown.

The pressing problem is keeping Lake Powell, on the Utah-Arizona state line, from getting catastrophically low, he said during a meeting of the Wyoming Colorado River Advisory Committee on Friday.

Toward that end, drawdowns from Flaming Gorge might total roughly 1.5 million acre-feet of water, from the reservoir’s total capacity of 3.5 million acre-feet.

An acre-foot is the amount of water it would take to flood an acre of land to the depth of 1 foot.

The drawdowns might begin later this month, running through October.

Lake Powell and Lake Mead in Nevada are the primary water sources for the Colorado River Lower Basin states: Arizona, Nevada and California.

In the face of persistent drought, the Lower Basin states have increasingly turned to the Upper Basin states: Wyoming, Colorado, Utah and New Mexico.

“How many times can you do this? How many times can you go back to the well until the well is dry?” said Brown.

‘An Economic Disaster’

Tony Valdez, owner of Buckboard Marina at Flaming Gorge, said that up until this week, he had expected a typical drawdown to the reservoir, which would be roughly 500,000 acre-feet.

Then word came down from federal officials that the drawdown could soar to 800,000 acre-feet, and possibly more.

That could be terrible for the reservoir’s population of prized kokanee salmon, Valdez told Cowboy State Daily.

A massive drawdown could destroy the kokanee’s spawning areas, he said. And that could come just as Flaming Gorge was starting to establish a reproducing population of the fish without having to depend on stocking.  

“Their spawning areas will be completely gone by October. So, again, there will be no spawning kokanees here,” he said.

Because they’re such a huge draw for anglers from all over the region, kokanee are economically valuable, Valdez stated in a letter to Brown and other state officials.

“Kokanee salmon were valued at approximately $75.98 per fish in 2003, with stocking costs of roughly $0.02 per fish (2003 dollars),” he wrote. “A 2003 study estimated approximately 4.1 million repeat-spawning kokanee in Flaming Gorge Reservoir across both Wyoming and Utah waters.

“Assuming an even distribution, this equates to roughly 2.05 million fish per state, representing an estimated economic value of $189.95 million at that time. When adjusted for inflation, the present-day value exceeds $225 per fish (2025 dollars),” Valdez added.

The potential loss of kokanee, loss of access to public boat ramps and the other effects of a huge drawdown would hit small businesses and the regional economy hard, Valdez said.

“This is an economic disaster. It’s crazy,” he said.

“They’re going to take the water, there’s not stopping that,” he added. “But how is that going to affect us as small business owners?”

‘An Incredibly Bad Year’

The last time Flaming Gorge was hit hard with drawdowns was in 2022, Valdez said. However, the winter of 2022-2023 saw massive snowfall across much of Wyoming, which softened the blow.

There might not be such relief coming from Mother Nature this time around, he added.

During the advisory committee meeting, Brown said the water level at Lake Powell is only slightly better than it was in 2002, one of the worst years on record.

“It’s an incredibly bad year. Lake Powell is starting the year at an incredibly low level,” he said.

Lake Powell might need as much as an additional 2.1 million acre-feet from the Upper Basin to meet Lower Basin water demands, and it’s not certain whether the Upper Basin can supply that, he said.

Although the immediate outlook seems dire, things could change and much remains uncertain, Wyoming State Engineer Brandon Gebhart told the committee.

“Things are still dynamic, and still could change,” he said.

Governors Weigh In

In a joint statement released Thursday, Gov. Mark Gordon and the other Upper Basin governors warned of possible water cuts.

“This is an unprecedented year on the Colorado River, and likely will be one of the worst on record,” the governors stated. “A dry year like this reminds us of why it is critical that all who rely on this resource learn to live within its means and adapt our uses accordingly.

“The Upper Division States of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming are actively and strictly regulating water uses. Because of such diminished runoff, existing state laws in the Upper Division States require water users to face cuts to water rights dating back to the 1800s — these cuts are mandatory, uncompensated, and will have significant impacts on water users, including Upper Basin Tribes, and local economies.”

The Upper Basin governors also cautioned against hitting Flaming Gorge and other reservoirs in their states too hard.

“We must have a clear understanding of how these proposed releases will effectively protect elevations at Lake Powell,” they said. “Once the releases conclude, we expect that all water released from Flaming Gorge and other upstream reservoirs will be fully recovered.”

In a separate statement emailed to Cowboy State Daily, Gordon acknowledged that Wyoming could be facing tough times.

“Wyoming understands drought, but that does not make potential actions any less consequential,” Gordon said. “Flaming Gorge is an important economic and water supply resource for Southwestern Wyoming and the Upper Basin States.

“Many of Wyoming’s water users are dealing with potential water restrictions. Any drawdowns of the water level in Flaming Gorge cannot be done without knowing important impacts.”

Mark Heinz can be reached at mark@cowboystatedaily.com.