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War with Iran disrupts fertilizer exports as U.S. farmers prepare for planting season
Matt Ubel, standing on his farm near Wheaton, Kansas, motions to the fertilizer spreader he’ll use to spread urea fertilizer this spring.
Frank Morris
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Frank Morris
Spring planting season is starting across the northern hemisphere. But before seeds go into the ground, nutrients go into the soil. Typically nitrogen fertilizer.
“Right now, we’re kind of … we’ll be in the thick of it,” farmer Matt Ubel said from the cab of his huge green fertilizer spreader near Wheaton, Kansas. “Lot of nitrogen gets put on in the spring.”

The high cost of fertilizer and other farming necessities pushed many row crop farmers into the red last year. Ubel says some were holding out for lower prices this spring, only to see the price of the most common nitrogen fertilizer, urea, spike close to 30% when Iran shut down shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, halting close to half the world’s fertilizer trade.
“This probably threw some guys for a loop,” said Ubel.
The Persian Gulf, nitrogen fertilizer hub of the world
Farmers in rural Kansas, and across the world, are feeling the unexpected consequences of the war in the Persian Gulf because closing the Strait of Hormuz has bottled up almost 50% of the world’s urea exports.
Every plant needs nitrogen to grow. The best source of nitrogen is natural gas, and the Gulf states are sitting on the world’s largest gas reserve.
“If you had sat us down before and said, ‘Hey, I want you to think of the nightmare scenario for fertilizer. What would it be?’ It would be this exact event during this exact time of year,” said Josh Linville, who oversees the global fertilizer department at the brokerage firm StoneX.
Linville says urea that had been expected to arrive in the United States next month, in the peak of planting season, won’t come.
The Fertilizer Institute predicts that U.S. farmers will be short some 2,000,000 tons of urea this spring.


The United States is currently the world’s top natural gas producer, which supports a robust domestic fertilizer industry. Still, U.S. companies import about 18% of the nitrogen fertilizer sold in this country, drawing heavily on imports to cover the spring planting surge.
Other countries are much more dependent on petrochemical imports. Liquefied Natural Gas imports from the Persian Gulf fuel urea production in some of the top-producing countries. Or it did.
“Countries like India, the second biggest urea producer in the world, their production rates are starting to fall. Pakistan, China, all of these major producing countries are struggling to get these gas supplies,” says Linville. “And all of a sudden, they’re having to say, well, we’ve only got so much. We need to lower our fertilizer production to put into some of these other industries.”
And natural gas isn’t the only problem. About half the world’s sulfur exports were shipped out of the Strait of Hormuz.
For instance, sulfur is an important plant nutrient on its own, but it’s also a critical ingredient in phosphate fertilizer.
“We do produce a lot of phosphate fertilizers here in the U.S., but if we can’t get sulfur, we can’t produce phosphate fertilizers,” said Veronica Nigh, chief economist at the Fertilizer Institute. “And so, it’s kind of a twofer there.”
No easy answers
Federal lawmakers are trying to help.. Bipartisan Senate legislation aims to lower fertilizer costs by requiring more transparent pricing.
The Trump Administration is lifting barriers to fertilizer imports from Venezuela and Morocco.
“They’re trying to pull a number of levers,” said Nigh. “I think that it’s the acknowledgement that there aren’t a lot of easy answers to this problem.”
There’s very little slack in the fertilizer supply chain. The product doesn’t store well, some of it is prone to blowing up, some if it gets clumpy and hard to use with the slightest moisture. According to Nigh, fertilizer plants tend to operate at capacity and take years to construct. Iran was a top urea producer and exporter before the war. It’s unclear when or if that capacity will come back online.
The gas fields in Iran and Qatar are the world’s largest natural gas reserves. They supplied fertilizer production in India, normally the world’s second-largest nitrogen fertilizer producer. But, those fields have been severely damaged in the war.

Even after the Strait of Hormuz reopens, it will likely take months to straighten out the fertilizer supply chain.
“How long does it take until we get back to normal? It could be a while,” Nigh said.
Meantime, American farmers may have to make hard choices at planting time. Corn, for instance, needs a lot of nitrogen to thrive. Soybeans need less, so U.S. farmers may grow less corn and more soybeans. Farmers who can’t source fertilizer may even skip a year.
“Think watermelons and cantaloupe and things along those lines in Texas, those don’t get planted,” said Nigh, “Or pumpkins in Indiana.”
On the one hand, less fertilizer use could be good for the environment. Fertilizer runoff pollutes water sources and fuels toxic algae blooms.
But the fertilizer shock triggered by the attack on Iran will invariably mean that people around the world have less to eat. And that could be an acute problem in vulnerable countries, especially those dependent on Persian Gulf oil for fertilizer.
“What our product is used for, is food, is the production of food,” Nigh said. “So the consequences aren’t going to be immediate, but they could be substantial.
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California’s primary for governor is undecided as candidates vie to be in the top two
Xavier Becerra, Democratic gubernatorial candidate for California, and Steve Hilton, Republican gubernatorial candidate for California, shake hands while arriving for a gubernatorial debate at KRON Studios in San Francisco in April.
Jason Henry/Getty Images North America
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Jason Henry/Getty Images North America
SAN FRANCISCO — The primary election for California governor is too close to call, with vote counting continuing Wednesday. Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican business executive Steve Hilton lead the field with Democrat Tom Steyer in third place.
In California’s unusual primary system, all candidates, regardless of party, appear on a single ballot open to any registered voter. The top two candidates then move on to the general election, even if they’re from the same party. This year, voters had 60 names for governor to choose from.
The winner will lead the country’s most populous state, where leaders often take on national political prominence. Incumbent Gov. Gavin Newsom is at his two-term limit and could be a Democratic contender for president.
Becerra, former Health and Human Services secretary under President Joe Biden, pitched himself to voters as an experienced political leader who isn’t afraid of President Trump, but his lead caps one of the most surprising and dramatic comebacks in recent state political history. As recently as April, polls were showing Becerra — also a former member of Congress and California attorney general — languishing in single digits in a crowded field.
In his remarks at his watch party in Los Angeles, Becerra noted his underdog status.
“Here in Hollywood’s hometown, we love a good underdog success story,” he said, drawing parallels between his campaign and his immigrant parents’ success story in California. “Guess what? The underdog stayed in the fight. Like my parents, I never gave up. Never stopped putting one foot in front of the other. Never stopped believing in the beacon-like goodness of California. And thankfully, neither did you.”
Hilton is a former Fox News commentator who also served as a political adviser to former British Prime Minister David Cameron. He was endorsed by President Trump in April, helping him to pull ahead of Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, the other major Republican in the race. Hilton has campaigned on the idea that California needs change after 16 years under total Democratic control.
The race is narrowing down after a tumultuous campaign
At his watch party in Huntington Beach, the British-born candidate — who became an American citizen five years ago — said it was the “honor of his lifetime” to receive over 1 million votes so far.
“Change is coming to California and it’s long overdue,” Hilton said. “We’re not there yet, but it’s looking good. It looks very much as if Californians really will have the chance to vote for change in November and take our state in a new direction.”
Democratic billionaire activist Steyer spent more than $213 million of his own money to boost his candidacy and push a progressive, populist message. While he was trailing Becerra and Hilton on Tuesday night, he said at his watch party in San Francisco that he remains confident he can close the gap in the days ahead.
“Together, we’ve scared the hell out of the corporate interests used to getting their way,” Steyer said. “It might take some time to figure out where this is going. We’re going to wait until every ballot is counted. We’re gonna give democracy a time to work. And we know we finished really strong.”
The early results are not certain to hold, in part because of unusual voting patterns in this primary election: Ballot-tracking data heading into Tuesday evening showed that Republicans were more likely to vote early by mail, while Democratic voters in this deep-blue state held onto their mail-in ballots or chose to vote in person. That’s the reverse of recent elections, which saw more Democrats voting by mail and Republicans tending to vote in person on Election Day.
The uncertainty on election night capped a race that remained crowded and unsettled to the end. To some extent, the race was defined by who wasn’t running.
Some of the state’s most high-profile Democrats — former Vice President Kamala Harris, U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla and California Attorney General Rob Bonta — all passed on a potential bid to succeed Newsom.
The race was disrupted in April when then-U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell’s campaign for governor imploded amid allegations of sexual assault and harassment. Swalwell resigned from Congress shortly after the accusations surfaced and has denied assault allegations.
Swalwell had been gaining in polls and racking up high-profile endorsements, and his exit seemed to primarily benefit Becerra, who had been stuck in single digits in many polls. Ultimately, it quieted fears among Democrats who worried that the messy Democratic field could result in Bianco and Hilton winning the top spots in the June primary.
Marisa Lagos covers California politics at KQED and co-hosts the Political Breakdown show and podcast.
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Supreme Court reinstates Republican-favored Alabama congressional districts
The U.S. Supreme Court
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Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images
The Supreme Court on Tuesday cleared the way for Alabama to use a congressional district map favored by Republicans.
The court, in an unsigned order, overturned a three-judge district court panel that found that the map is “tainted by intentional race-based discrimination.” The court’s three liberals publicly dissented.
The ruling means that Alabama’s 2026 midterm elections will feature six Republican-leaning districts and one Democratic-leaning one, as opposed to a map with only five safe Republican seats. Democrat Shomari Figures, who represents Alabama’s Second District, will likely lose his seat as a result of the high court’s ruling.
The story of Alabama’s congressional map is long and tortured. It began in 2021, when the state implemented a new map to account for population changes in the census. The map featured only one majority-black district out of seven, even though the state is more than one-quarter Black.
Voters immediately sued, claiming the map illegally diluted minority votes in violation of the Voting Rights Act and the Constitution. Lower court judges agreed, ruling that the state must draw a map with two districts where Black voters have a realistic chance of electing their candidate of choice. The Supreme Court more than once has ordered Alabama to draw a compliant map.
But the state has refused and instead continued to litigate the case. On Tuesday, that tactic paid off.
What changed? In April, the Supreme Court’s conservative supermajority all but gutted what remains of the Voting Rights Act, ruling that states cannot purposefully draw districts that are majority-minority.
Alabama then asked the high court to reinstate the state’s old map, under the theory that this new ruling meant that it was permissible to use a map with only one majority-Black district. In an unsigned, unexplained order in May, the high court essentially reversed its previous opinions, and allowed Alabama to use the old map for the upcoming midterm elections.
This set off a flurry of activity in Alabama. By the time the Supreme Court issued its May order, absentee balloting had already begun, using the court-drawn map. So Republican Governor Kay Ivey cancelled elections and scheduled a special primary for August for the affected congressional races.
The case, however, was not over.
In its ruling, the Supreme Court had ordered a lower court panel to continue evaluating Alabama’s map in light of its recent Voting Rights Act decision. And just 15 days after that order, the panel, composed of three Republican judges—two of them Trump appointees—concluded unanimously that even under the Supreme Court’s new standards, the plan for a single black district was “intentionally discriminatory.”
So, once again, Alabama returned to the Supreme Court, arguing that the map was partisan, not racially discriminatory. In short, that the Republican legislature simply drew the map to elect more Republicans. And that under the Supreme Court’s new interpretation of the Voting Rights Act, the GOP map should be allowed to stand.
The court’s conservative agreed, writing that the lower court “did not heed the presumption of legislative good faith.”
The court’s three liberals publicly dissented, castigating the conservative majority for failing to abide by its 2006 decision in the case of Purcell v. Gonzalez. That decision declared that courts should not change election rules too close to an election.
Justice Sonia Sotomayor, in her dissent, said the court “debases the democratic process” and “corrodes the rule of law by rewarding Alabama’s gamesmanship and outright defiance of court orders.”
Tuesday’s decision is the latest in a series of Supreme Court rulings that could well reshape the 2026 midterm elections, making it much harder for Democrats to prevail.
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Map: 3.7-Magnitude Earthquake Shakes the San Francisco Bay Area
Note: Map shows the area with a shake intensity of 3 or greater, which U.S.G.S. defines as “weak,” though the earthquake may be felt outside the areas shown. The New York Times
A minor, 3.7-magnitude earthquake struck in the San Francisco Bay Area on Tuesday, according to the United States Geological Survey.
The temblor happened at 9:44 a.m. Pacific time about 4 miles southeast of Cloverdale, Calif., data from the agency shows.
U.S.G.S. data earlier reported that the magnitude was 3.6.
As seismologists review available data, they may revise the earthquake’s reported magnitude. Additional information collected about the earthquake may also prompt U.S.G.S. scientists to update the shake-severity map.
Subsequent quakes have been reported in the same area. Such temblors are typically aftershocks caused by minor adjustments along the portion of a fault that slipped at the time of the initial earthquake.
Aftershocks detected
Quakes and aftershocks within 100 miles
Aftershocks can occur days, weeks or even years after the first earthquake. These events can be of equal or larger magnitude to the initial earthquake, and they can continue to affect already damaged locations.
The New York Times When quakes and aftershocks occurred
Sources: United States Geological Survey (epicenter, aftershocks, shake intensity); LandScan via Oak Ridge National Laboratory (population density) | Notes: Shaking categories are based on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale. When aftershock data is available, the corresponding maps and charts include earthquakes within 100 miles and seven days of the initial quake. All times above are Pacific time. Shake data is as of Tuesday, June 2 at 12:59 p.m. Eastern. Aftershocks data is as of Tuesday, June 2 at 1:59 p.m. Eastern.
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