CLEVELAND, Ohio — Forecasters are increasingly confident that a major winter storm developing across the southern United States this weekend could bring accumulating snow to Northeast Ohio, as forecast trends continue to nudge the system’s track farther north.

While the most significant impacts from the storm are still expected well south of Ohio, the National Weather Service says confidence is growing that Northeast Ohio will be close enough to the northern edge to see snow late Saturday night through Sunday, with Arctic air ensuring any precipitation falls as snow.

Weekend storm chances trending upward

All eyes remain on the developing winter storm expected to take shape from Texas into the Southeast before lifting northeastward this weekend, according to the National Weather Service in Cleveland.

Forecast models have continued a gradual northward trend, increasing the potential for accumulating snow across Northeast Ohio, particularly east of Interstate 71. While snowfall amounts remain uncertain, forecasters say confidence is increasing that at least some measurable snow will reach the region.

Forecasters say the eventual impacts will depend on how a disturbance dropping south from Canada interacts with the storm system lifting out of the southern United States. If those features come together, higher snow totals would become more likely. If not, the system could weaken as it approaches the Ohio Valley.

Regardless of the final track, Arctic air already in place will keep all precipitation as snow across the region.

Quiet, calmer weather Thursday

Before the weekend system arrives, Northeast Ohio will get a brief break Thursday.

Lingering snow showers from Wednesday night will taper off early Thursday, followed by mostly cloudy skies and dry conditions for much of the day. High temperatures Thursday are expected to remain below freezing.

Thursday night will mark a turning point, however, as another cold front pushes through and ushers in a much colder air mass.

Dangerous cold settles in Friday and Saturday

Confidence is high that dangerously cold Arctic air will surge into Northeast Ohio late Thursday night and persist into early next week.

Temperatures are expected to fall sharply Friday, dropping through the day into the single digits. Wind chill values are forecast to plunge into the minus 10 to minus 20 degree range by Friday night, creating hazardous conditions.

Saturday is expected to remain bitterly cold, with highs struggling into the single digits to lower teens. With winds easing overnight and snow on the ground, temperatures could dip below zero by Saturday morning, even near the lakeshore.

Forecasters warn that the prolonged nature of the cold increases the risk of frozen pipes, dangerous travel conditions and cold-related health impacts.

Cold sets the table for snow to linger

The same Arctic air mass driving the dangerous cold will also play a key role in shaping impacts from the weekend storm.

With temperatures remaining well below freezing, any snow that falls late Saturday into Sunday would accumulate efficiently and be slow to melt, increasing the likelihood of lingering travel issues into early next week.

Forecast confidence is expected to continue to improve over the next couple of days as the storm system moves out of the Rockies and into the central United States.