MINNEAPOLIS, MN — A storm system will bring rain, snow, and strong winds to Minnesota beginning Tuesday, according to the National Weather Service.

Forecasters predict that rain will arrive early Tuesday, transitioning to snow by late afternoon and evening as colder air moves in.

A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for much of central Minnesota, including areas north of Morris and Mora, where the highest potential exists for several inches of accumulation. The NWS says snow rates could exceed half an inch per hour at times, creating quick travel impacts.

The heaviest totals remain focused from Douglas County through Morrison, Mille Lacs, Kanabec, Stearns, and Todd counties.

The official forecast shows three to seven inches possible near Alexandria, with Brainerd and Fergus Falls in the three to eight inch range.

Farther south, totals drop off sharply, with one to three inches possible around the Twin Cities and lighter accumulations toward Mankato, Rochester, and Marshall.

Forecasters also warn that strong northwest winds, gusting between 35 and 40 mph, may produce blowing snow and reduced visibility late Tuesday into Wednesday. Roads may become slick, and both the Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning commutes could be affected.

Probabilistic forecasts reinforce the north–south split. Brainerd has a 91 percent chance of at least two inches and a 73 percent chance of four inches. Alexandria has a 79 percent chance of two inches and a 61 percent chance of four inches.

The Twin Cities has a 34 percent chance of two inches and only an 8 percent chance of four inches.

Locations south of Interstate 90 have very low probabilities of meaningful accumulation.

Here’s the full NWS forecast from the Minneapolis-St. Paul Airport:

Today: A 20 percent chance of rain after 3pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 51. South southwest wind around 5 mph becoming east in the afternoon.

Tonight: A 40 percent chance of rain, mainly between midnight and 5am. Patchy fog between 7pm and 9pm. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 42. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Tuesday: Rain. High near 47. West wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Tuesday Night: Snow, possibly mixed with rain, becoming all snow after 11pm. Patchy blowing snow after 10pm. Low around 25. Blustery, with a northwest wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Wednesday: A 30 percent chance of snow before noon. Patchy blowing snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 29. Blustery, with a northwest wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.

Wednesday Night: Patchy blowing snow before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. West northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Thanksgiving Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 26. West northwest wind around 15 mph.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 14. West northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.

Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 26. West northwest wind around 5 mph, becoming south southeast in the afternoon.

Friday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. East wind around 5 mph.

Saturday: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 27. East northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. North wind 5 to 10 mph.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 25. North northwest wind around 10 mph.