Finance
GRAIL Reports Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results
Q3 U.S. Galleri Revenue Grew 28% Year-Over-Year to $32.6 Million
Q3 Galleri Tests Sold Grew 39% Year-Over-Year to More Than 45,000
Galleri PMA Submission to FDA Now Anticipated in Q126
Cash Position of More Than $850 Million Includes Recently Completed Private Placement
MENLO PARK, Calif., Nov. 12, 2025 /PRNewswire/ — GRAIL, Inc. (Nasdaq: GRAL), a healthcare company whose mission is to detect cancer early when it can be cured, today reported business and financial results for the third quarter of 2025.
Total revenue in the third quarter grew 26% year-over-year to $36.2 million, and Galleri revenue grew 29% year-over-year to $32.8 million. U.S. Galleri revenue was $32.6 million, representing 28% growth year-over-year. Net loss for the quarter was $89.0 million. Gross loss was $13.7 million. Non-GAAP adjusted gross profit was $20.0 million, and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA was $(71.7) million.1
“We remain very pleased by Galleri’s commercial uptake with 39% growth in Galleri test volume in the third quarter. Our teams continue to build awareness of Galleri among providers and patients, and recent data from our registrational PATHFINDER 2 study adds to the evidence base,” said Bob Ragusa, Chief Executive Officer at GRAIL. “We have also made key recent strides in opportunities beyond the U.S., led by our strategic collaboration with Samsung to bring Galleri to key Asian markets, as well as Galleri’s commercial introduction in Canada. Looking ahead, we anticipate completing our PMA submission for Galleri to the FDA in the first quarter of 2026.”
For the three months ended September 30, 2025, as compared to the three months ended September 30, 2024, GRAIL reported:
- Revenue: Total revenue, comprised of screening and development services revenue, was $36.2 million, an increase of $7.5 million or 26%.
- Net loss: Net loss was $89.0 million, an improvement of $36.7 million or 29%.
- Gross loss: Gross loss was $13.7 million, an improvement of $8.5 million or 38%.
- Adjusted gross profit1: Adjusted gross profit was $20.0 million, an increase of $8.2 million or 69%.
- Adjusted EBITDA1: Adjusted EBITDA was $(71.7) million, an improvement of $36.5 million or 34%.
- Cash position: Cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and short-term marketable securities totaled $547.1 million as of September 30, 2025.
Recent business highlights include:
- Positive results from PATHFINDER 2 and SYMPLIFY studies add to the evidence base for the effectiveness of multi-cancer early detection.
- Positive detailed performance and safety results from the pre-specified analysis of the first approximately 25,000 participants in the registrational PATHFINDER 2 study were presented at the European Society of Medical Oncology (“ESMO”) Congress 2025 in October:
- Adding Galleri to recommended screenings for breast, cervical, colorectal, and lung cancers (USPSTF A and B recommendations) led to a more than seven-fold increase in the number of cancers found within a year
- Galleri detected approximately three times as many cancers when added to standard-of-care screening for breast, cervical, colorectal, lung, and prostate cancers (USPSTF A, B, and C recommendations)
- Approximately three-quarters of the cancers detected by Galleri do not have standard of care screening options
- More than half of the new cancers detected by Galleri were stage 1 or 2 and more than two-thirds were detected at stages 1-3
- Galleri positive predictive value (“PPV”), or the likelihood of receiving a cancer diagnosis following a positive test result, was 61.6%
- Specificity was 99.6%, translating to a false positive rate of 0.4%
- Cancer signal of origin accuracy was 92%, leading to efficient diagnostic workups
- Diagnostic resolution took a median of 46 days, and only 0.6% of all participants had an invasive procedure and invasive procedures were two times more common in participants with cancer than in those without
- No serious, study-related adverse events were reported
- Positive long-term results from an extended registry follow-up of the SYMPLIFY study with the University of Oxford were presented at the Early Detection of Cancer Conference (“EDCC”) in October. A previous primary analysis, published in The Lancet Oncology, followed participants until diagnostic resolution or up to nine months and demonstrated Galleri’s PPV was 75.5%. Patients reported to have a false positive Galleri result were followed for 24 months in national cancer registries for England and Wales.
- The updated analysis presented at EDCC showed that approximately one-third of participants initially believed to have a false positive result were later diagnosed with cancer during the subsequent follow up period
- This reduction in false positives resulted in an increase of Galleri’s PPV in this symptomatic population to 84.2%
- Announced a collaboration with Medcan, a global leader in proactive health and wellness services, to provide access to the Galleri test at Medcan’s clinics. Additionally, Manulife Canada announced it now offers access to Galleri, in partnership with Medcan, to eligible life insurance customers through its innovative Manulife Vitality program.
- Announced a strategic collaboration with Samsung in October to bring the Galleri test to key Asian markets. Subject to execution of definitive agreements, the parties will work as exclusive partners to commercialize Galleri in Korea, and possibly other key Asian markets, including Japan and Singapore. In addition, the parties intend to explore potential additional strategic and operational collaborations. Samsung has also agreed to make an equity investment of $110 million in GRAIL, subject to closing conditions.
- Completed a private placement of equity in October resulting in gross proceeds of approximately $325 million, before deducting placement agents’ fees and other expenses. Including proceeds from this transaction, GRAIL’s cash position of more than $850 million provides runway into 2030.
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1 See “Non-GAAP Disclosure” and the associated reconciliations for important information about our use of non-GAAP measures. |
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Conference Call and Webcast
A webcast and conference call will be held today, Nov. 12, 2025, at 1:30 p.m. PT / 4:30 p.m. ET. Individuals interested in listening to the conference call may access it on the investor relations section of GRAIL’s website at investors.grail.com.
A replay of the webcast will be available on GRAIL’s website for 30 days.
GRAIL Analyst Day 2025 Tomorrow
GRAIL will host its Analyst Day 2025 tomorrow, Nov. 13, 2025, at the Company’s central laboratories in Research Triangle Park, North Carolina beginning at 8:00 a.m. PT / 11:00 a.m. ET.
The live webcast and recorded replay will be available at the investor relations section of GRAIL’s website at investors.grail.com and at https://grail-analyst-day-2025.open-exchange.net/registration.
About GRAIL
GRAIL, Inc. is a healthcare company whose mission is to detect cancer early, when it can be cured. GRAIL is focused on alleviating the global burden of cancer by using the power of next-generation sequencing, population-scale clinical studies, and state-of-the-art machine learning, software, and automation to detect and identify multiple deadly cancer types in earlier stages. GRAIL’s targeted methylation-based platform can support the continuum of care for screening and precision oncology, including multi-cancer early detection in symptomatic patients, risk stratification, minimal residual disease detection, biomarker subtyping, treatment and recurrence monitoring. GRAIL is headquartered in Menlo Park, CA with locations in Washington, D.C., North Carolina, and the United Kingdom. GRAIL’s common stock is listed under the ticker symbol “GRAL” on the NASDAQ Stock Exchange.
For more information, visit grail.com.
About Galleri®
The Galleri multi-cancer early detection test is a proactive tool to screen for cancer. With a simple blood draw, the Galleri test can identify DNA shed by cancer cells, which can act as a unique “fingerprint” of cancer, to help screen for some of the deadliest cancers that don’t have recommended screening today, such as pancreatic, esophageal, ovarian, liver, and others. The Galleri test can be used to screen for cancer before a person becomes symptomatic, when cancer may be more easily treated and potentially curable. The Galleri test can indicate the origin of the cancer, giving healthcare providers a roadmap of where to explore further. The Galleri test requires a prescription from a licensed healthcare provider and should be used in addition to recommended cancer screenings such as mammography, colonoscopy, prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test, or cervical cancer screening. The Galleri test is recommended for adults with an elevated risk for cancer, such as those aged 50 or older.
For more information, visit galleri.com.
Laboratory/Test Information
GRAIL’s clinical laboratory is certified under the Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments of 1988 (CLIA) and accredited by the College of American Pathologists. The Galleri test was developed, and its performance characteristics were determined by GRAIL. The Galleri test has not been cleared or approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. GRAIL’s clinical laboratory is regulated under CLIA to perform high-complexity testing. The Galleri test is intended for clinical purposes.
Non-GAAP Disclosure
In addition to our financial results provided throughout this press release that are determined in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”), this press release also includes financial measures that are not calculated in accordance with GAAP. Our non-GAAP financial disclosure includes Adjusted Gross Profit (Loss) and Adjusted EBITDA. We encourage investors to carefully consider our results under GAAP in conjunction with our supplemental non-GAAP information and the reconciliation between these presentations.
- Adjusted Gross Profit (Loss) is a key performance measure that our management uses to assess our operational performance, as it represents the results of revenues and direct costs, which are key components of our operations. We believe that this non-GAAP financial measure is useful to investors and other interested parties in analyzing our financial performance because it reflects the gross profitability of our operations, and excludes the costs associated with our sales and marketing, product development, general and administrative activities, and depreciation and amortization, and the impact of our financing methods and income taxes.
We calculate Adjusted Gross Profit (Loss) as gross profit (loss) (as defined below) adjusted to exclude amortization of intangible assets and stock-based compensation allocated to cost of revenue. Adjusted Gross Profit (Loss) should be viewed as a measure of operating performance that is a supplement to, and not a substitute for, operating income or loss from operations, net earnings or loss and other GAAP measures of income (loss) or profitability. The following table presents a reconciliation of gross loss, the most directly comparable financial measure calculated in accordance with GAAP, to Adjusted Gross Profit.
- Adjusted EBITDA is a key performance measure that our management uses to assess our financial performance and is also used for internal planning and forecasting purposes. We believe that this non-GAAP financial measure is useful to investors and other interested parties in analyzing our financial performance because it provides a comparable overview of our operations across historical periods. In addition, we believe that providing Adjusted EBITDA, together with a reconciliation of net income (loss) to Adjusted EBITDA, helps investors make comparisons between our company and other companies that may have different capital structures, different tax rates, different operational and ownership histories, and/or different forms of employee compensation.
Adjusted EBITDA is used by our management team as an additional measure of our performance for purposes of business decision-making, including managing expenditures. Period-to-period comparisons of Adjusted EBITDA help our management identify additional trends in our financial results that may not be shown solely by period-to-period comparisons of net income (loss) or income (loss) from operations. Our management recognizes that Adjusted EBITDA has inherent limitations because of the excluded items, and may not be directly comparable to similarly titled metrics used by other companies.
We calculate Adjusted EBITDA as net income (loss) adjusted to exclude interest (income) expense, income tax expense (benefit), depreciation, impairment of goodwill and intangible assets, and amortization of intangible assets, which represent intangible assets resulting from pushdown accounting, legal and professional services fees related to Illumina’s acquisition of the Company in August 2021 (“the Acquisition”) and corresponding antitrust litigation, including compliance with the hold separate arrangements imposed by the European Commission, and our divestment from Illumina, restructuring charges, and stock-based compensation. We believe that the items subject to these further adjustments are not indicative of our ongoing operations due to their nature, especially considering the impact of certain items as a result of the Acquisition.
Adjusted EBITDA should be viewed as a measure of operating performance that is a supplement to, and not a substitute for, operating income or loss from operations, net earnings or loss and other U.S. GAAP measures of income (loss). Additionally, it is not intended to be a measure of free cash flow for management’s discretionary use, as it does not consider certain cash requirements such as interest and tax payments. Further, our definition of Adjusted EBITDA may differ from similarly titled measures used by other companies and therefore may not be comparable among companies. The following table presents a reconciliation of net loss, the most directly comparable financial measure calculated in accordance with U.S. GAAP, to Adjusted EBITDA on a consolidated basis.
Full reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP measures is set forth in tabular form below.
Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements. In some cases, you can identify these statements by forward-looking words such as “aim,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “continue,” “could,” “estimate,” “expect,” “intend,” “may,” “might,” “plan,” “potential,” “predict,” “should,” “would,” or “will,” the negative of these terms, and other comparable terminology. These forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks, uncertainties, and assumptions about us, may include expectations and projections of our future financial performance, future tests or products, patient awareness of our products, technology, clinical studies, safety results, regulatory compliance, potential market opportunity, anticipated growth strategies, restructuring costs, sufficiency of cash on hand to finance our business, cost savings, budgets and strategies, satisfaction of closing conditions and negotiation of definitive agreements in the Samsung collaboration, and growth and anticipated trends in our business.
These statements are only predictions based on our current expectations and projections about future events and trends. There are important factors that could cause our actual results, level of activity, performance, or achievements to differ materially and adversely from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements, including those factors and numerous associated risks discussed under the sections entitled “Risk Factors” in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the period ended December 31, 2024 and in our Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q for the periods ended March 31, 2025, June 30, 2025 and September 30, 2025. Moreover, we operate in a dynamic and rapidly changing environment. New risks emerge from time to time. It is not possible for our management to predict all risks, nor can we assess the impact of all factors on our business or the extent to which any factor, or combination of factors, may cause actual results, level of activity, performance, or achievements to differ materially and adversely from those contained in any forward-looking statements we may make.
Forward-looking statements relate to the future and, accordingly, are subject to inherent uncertainties, risks, and changes in circumstances that are difficult to predict and many of which are outside of our control. Although we believe the expectations and projections expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot guarantee future results, level of activity, performance, or achievements. Our actual results and financial condition may differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements. Except to the extent required by law, we undertake no obligation to update any of these forward-looking statements after the date of this press release to conform our prior statements to actual results or revised expectations or to reflect new information or the occurrence of unanticipated events.
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GRAIL, Inc. |
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Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets |
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(unaudited) |
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(amounts in thousands, except share and per share data) |
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September 30, |
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December 31, |
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Assets |
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Current assets: |
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Cash and cash equivalents |
$ 126,892 |
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$ 214,234 |
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Short-term marketable securities |
413,238 |
|
549,236 |
|
Accounts receivable, net |
16,282 |
|
20,312 |
|
Supplies |
18,390 |
|
18,632 |
|
Prepaid expenses and other current assets |
14,579 |
|
17,447 |
|
Total current assets |
589,381 |
|
819,861 |
|
Property and equipment, net |
56,180 |
|
69,061 |
|
Operating lease right-of-use assets |
56,061 |
|
66,373 |
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Restricted cash |
6,974 |
|
3,349 |
|
Intangible assets, net |
1,885,140 |
|
2,016,890 |
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Other non-current assets |
7,295 |
|
7,773 |
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Total assets |
$ 2,601,031 |
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$ 2,983,307 |
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Liabilities and stockholders’ equity |
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Current liabilities: |
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Accounts payable |
$ 3,407 |
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$ 4,844 |
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Accrued liabilities |
58,076 |
|
57,241 |
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Operating lease liabilities, current portion |
14,022 |
|
13,260 |
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Other current liabilities |
1,928 |
|
1,580 |
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Total current liabilities |
77,433 |
|
76,925 |
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Operating lease liabilities, net of current portion |
44,568 |
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54,881 |
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Deferred tax liability, net |
236,265 |
|
345,860 |
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Other non-current liabilities |
2,802 |
|
2,236 |
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Total liabilities |
361,068 |
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479,902 |
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Preferred stock, par value of $0.001 per share; 50,000,000 shares |
— |
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— |
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Common stock $0.001 par value per share, 1,500,000,000 shares |
36 |
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34 |
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Additional paid-in capital |
12,349,976 |
|
12,305,250 |
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Accumulated other comprehensive income |
2,456 |
|
1,451 |
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Accumulated deficit |
(10,112,505) |
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(9,803,330) |
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Total stockholders’ equity |
2,239,963 |
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2,503,405 |
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Total liabilities and stockholders’ equity |
$ 2,601,031 |
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$ 2,983,307 |
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GRAIL, Inc. |
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Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations |
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(unaudited) |
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(amounts in thousands, except share and per share data) |
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Three Months Ended |
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Nine Months Ended |
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September 30, |
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September 30, |
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September 30, |
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September 30, |
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Revenue: |
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Screening revenue |
$ 32,807 |
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$ 25,374 |
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$ 96,319 |
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$ 77,076 |
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Development services revenue |
3,387 |
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3,278 |
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7,256 |
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10,267 |
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Total revenue |
36,194 |
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28,652 |
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103,575 |
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87,343 |
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Costs and operating expenses: |
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Cost of screening revenue (exclusive of |
15,910 |
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15,970 |
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52,379 |
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45,481 |
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Cost of development services revenue |
544 |
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1,442 |
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2,216 |
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3,499 |
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Cost of revenue — amortization of intangible |
33,473 |
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33,473 |
|
100,417 |
|
100,417 |
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Research and development |
48,647 |
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78,231 |
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148,898 |
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274,052 |
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Sales and marketing |
25,503 |
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35,625 |
|
89,021 |
|
123,433 |
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General and administrative |
37,408 |
|
47,418 |
|
120,396 |
|
171,745 |
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Goodwill and intangible assets impairment |
— |
|
— |
|
28,000 |
|
1,420,936 |
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Total costs and operating expenses |
161,485 |
|
212,159 |
|
541,327 |
|
2,139,563 |
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Loss from operations |
(125,291) |
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(183,507) |
|
(437,752) |
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(2,052,220) |
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Other income: |
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Interest income |
6,107 |
|
11,661 |
|
20,695 |
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17,367 |
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Other income (expense), net |
466 |
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(561) |
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(929) |
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(514) |
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Total other income, net |
6,573 |
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11,100 |
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19,766 |
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16,853 |
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Loss before income taxes |
(118,718) |
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(172,407) |
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(417,986) |
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(2,035,367) |
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Benefit from income taxes |
29,741 |
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46,719 |
|
108,811 |
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105,428 |
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Net loss |
$ (88,977) |
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$ (125,688) |
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$ (309,175) |
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$ (1,929,939) |
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Net loss per share — Basic and Diluted |
$ (2.46) |
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$ (3.94) |
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$ (8.73) |
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$ (61.61) |
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Weighted-average shares of common stock |
36,124,256 |
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31,880,054 |
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35,415,266 |
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31,326,117 |
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GRAIL, Inc. |
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Reconciliation of GAAP to Non-GAAP Financial Measures |
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(unaudited) |
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(amounts in thousands) |
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Three Months Ended |
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Nine Months Ended |
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September 30, |
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September 30, |
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September 30, |
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September 30, |
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Gross loss (1) |
$ (13,733) |
|
$ (22,233) |
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$ (51,437) |
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$ (62,054) |
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Amortization of intangible assets |
33,473 |
|
33,473 |
|
100,417 |
|
100,417 |
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Stock-based compensation |
271 |
|
578 |
|
1,450 |
|
1,522 |
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Adjusted Gross Profit |
$ 20,011 |
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$ 11,818 |
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$ 50,430 |
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$ 39,885 |
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(1) |
Gross loss is calculated as total revenue less cost of screening revenue (exclusive of amortization of intangible assets), cost of development services revenue and cost of revenue—amortization of intangible assets. |
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GRAIL, Inc. |
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Reconciliation of GAAP to Non-GAAP Financial Measures |
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(unaudited) |
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(amounts in thousands) |
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Three Months Ended |
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Nine Months Ended |
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September 30, |
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September 30, |
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September 30, |
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September 30, |
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Net loss |
$ (88,977) |
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$ (125,688) |
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$ (309,175) |
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$ (1,929,939) |
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Adjusted to exclude the following: |
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Interest income |
(6,107) |
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(11,661) |
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(20,695) |
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(17,367) |
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Benefit from income tax expense |
(29,741) |
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(46,719) |
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(108,811) |
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(105,428) |
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Amortization of intangible assets (1) |
34,583 |
|
34,583 |
|
103,750 |
|
103,750 |
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Depreciation |
4,399 |
|
4,647 |
|
13,686 |
|
14,865 |
|
Goodwill and intangible impairment (2) |
— |
|
— |
|
28,000 |
|
1,420,936 |
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Illumina/GRAIL merger & divestiture |
— |
|
226 |
|
— |
|
22,158 |
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Stock-based compensation(4) |
14,139 |
|
17,449 |
|
44,518 |
|
72,502 |
|
Restructuring(5) |
— |
|
19,007 |
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(34) |
|
19,007 |
|
Adjusted EBITDA |
$ (71,704) |
|
$ (108,156) |
|
$ (248,761) |
|
$ (399,516) |
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(1) |
Represents amortization of intangible assets, including developed technology and trade names. |
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(2) |
Reflects impairment of goodwill and intangible assets recognized as a result of the Acquisition. |
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(3) |
Represents legal and professional services costs associated with the Acquisition and corresponding antitrust litigation, including compliance with the hold separate arrangements imposed by the European Commission, and legal and professional services costs associated with the divestiture. |
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(4) |
Represents all stock-based compensation recognized on our standalone financial statements for the periods presented. |
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(5) |
Represents employee severance, benefits, payroll taxes, and other costs associated with the Restructuring Plan. |
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SOURCE GRAIL, Inc.
Finance
Buyers snap up homes for $200,000 under asking price as ‘fear and mystery’ grips Aussie property
When George Cherchian attended an open home in Sydney’s west recently, he was on the look out for one thing. A key detail would indicate how much competition he would have in vying for the house.
He attended every inspection for the property prior to the scheduled auction date. And when he didn’t see it, the buyers agent knew he was in a good position.
“I went to every single open home, and what I look for there is essentially the same faces. So if I’m seeing your face at every open I go to for one particular property, it tells me that you are just as interested in it as my clients are, or as I am,” he told Yahoo Finance.
“But that wasn’t the case here, we didn’t have any sort of repeat faces.”
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In the end, he put an offer in ahead of the planned auction date. Despite it being considerably lower than the advertised asking price, the vendor ultimately accepted it.
On behalf of the buyer, he secured the Baulkham Hills property for $1.9 million, $200,000 below the $2.1 million asking price.
Cherchian explained that in this particular case the vendor was in a position “where they couldn’t really afford to defer the settlement” as they had to sell because they had committed to buying another property.
But as “caution” grips property markets in Australia’s capital cities thanks to rising interest rates, higher fuel prices, ongoing uncertainty with the Iran war and impending policy changes around the taxation of investment properties, Cherchian said the sale is emblematic of the opportunities buyers can find right now in a less competitive market.
“Now that there are not as many buyers to contend with, there’s almost a bit of a window of opportunity for those who are able to make a decision,” he told Yahoo Finance.
Overall, he said many buyers in Sydney were showing increased “caution” during so much uncertainty. As a result, “the things that need to transact, they are transacting at a discount”.
Auction clearance rates in Sydney and Melbourne dropped in March, with the most recent results from April showing a clearance rate of just 54 per cent in Sydney, according to Domain, about 10 per cent lower than at the same time last year.
Dwelling prices went backwards in Sydney and Melbourne in the March quarter this year, according to property data giant Cotality. Prices fell 0.6 per cent in Melbourne and 0.2 per cent in Sydney.
Finance
Mastercard’s $1.8 billion bet heralds the collapse of financial silos
- Key insight: Mastercard’s acquisition of BVNK was a hedge against irrelevance. It suggests that the companies that defined the last era of finance are now preparing for a very different future.
- What’s at stake: Many of today’s financial institutions will not survive in their current form.
- Forward look: Banks, brokerages and payment firms still possess enormous advantages in customer trust, regulatory expertise and distribution. The question is whether they transform quickly enough to remain central to the financial system, or end up on the outside looking in.
When Mastercard recently announced it would acquire stablecoin infrastructure firm
Processing Content
For years, financial institutions treated blockchain as a hedge, not a priority. They launched
Now these firms are writing billion-dollar checks to ensure they won’t be.
The Mastercard news is the latest evidence that blockchain infrastructure is quietly becoming real financial infrastructure.
JPMorganChase’s
At the same time, asset managers are bringing investment products onto blockchain rails. BlackRock has
These examples and others represent an uncomfortable truth: Many of today’s financial institutions will not survive in their current form.
Today’s traditional financial system is built around silos. Increasingly, technology is making these structures obsolete.
Consumers bank in one place, invest in another, make payments through separate networks, borrow through specialized lenders and store assets somewhere else entirely. Behind the scenes, each layer extracts value and charges users (even though services appear “free”) through fees, spreads, settlement delays and execution costs.
Credit card networks take a percentage of every purchase. Brokerage platforms advertise commission-free trading while monetizing customer order flow behind the scenes. Banks profit from deposit spreads while offering customers minimal yield. Settlement between institutions can still take days, tying up liquidity across markets.
Mastercard’s business exists because of those silos. They connect banks, merchants and consumers across fragmented systems, and take a fee at every step.
These structures persist not because they are necessary, but because they have been profitable.
Blockchain infrastructure changes that.
When money, securities and collateral move on shared digital rails, entire layers of reconciliation and settlement complexity can disappear. Payments, investing, lending and asset management no longer need to operate as separate businesses. They can become integrated features of unified financial platforms. In that world, shifting from cash into government bonds or stocks becomes a near instant digital exchange rather than a multiday process involving brokers, custodians and clearinghouses.
That convergence has already begun. BlackRock’s expansion into tokenized funds reflects a recognition that assets themselves will move across interoperable rails, where currency and collateral operate within the same system rather than across fragmented intermediaries.
At the same time, systems like JPMorgan’s Kinexys show how money itself is beginning to move on those same rails, enabling real-time payments, liquidity transfers and settlement within a single infrastructure layer.
The BVNK acquisition points to something larger than crypto adoption. It shows that even the companies that built the existing financial rails now expect those rails to evolve or be replaced. Additionally, some analysts now believe
Many incumbent institutions have legitimate concerns about stability, compliance and consumer protection. Financial infrastructure requires trust. Yet it is also true that parts of the industry have strong incentives to slow structural change. Banks benefit from low-cost deposits and spreads that could shrink in a world where digital dollars move more freely. Payment networks have built lucrative businesses around interchange fees that lower-cost settlement rails could compress. Brokerage models rely on execution and order-flow economics that become harder to sustain in markets operating continuously on shared infrastructure.
The
Mastercard’s move isn’t a bet on crypto hype. It’s a hedge against irrelevance. The news suggests that the companies that defined the last era of finance are now preparing for a system where value moves more quickly, cheaply and across shared infrastructure.
Industries rarely disappear overnight, but they can and they do evolve. Banks, brokerages and payment firms still possess enormous advantages in customer trust, regulatory expertise and distribution. The question is whether they transform quickly enough to remain central to the financial system, or end up on the outside looking in.
Finance
Morgan Stanley has a blunt message on S&P 500
Most investors still feel like the market is fragile. Morgan Stanley thinks it is further along than they realize.
In his Sunday Start note dated April 12, Morgan Stanley equity strategist Michael Wilson argued that the S&P 500 was in the process of carving out a low after hitting the bottom of the firm’s targeted correction range of 6,300 to 6,500. The bank has consistently maintained that this is a correction within a new bull market, not the start of a bear market.
“As always, the market trades in advance of the headlines. Investors should do the same,” Wilson wrote.
The correction began last October, Wilson noted. Since then, the S&P 500’s forward price-to-earnings ratio has declined 18% from its peak.
That kind of P/E compression typically accompanies a recession or an actively tightening Federal Reserve. Morgan Stanley’s base case includes neither.
More Wall Street
Beneath the surface, more than half of the stocks in the Russell 3000 have dropped 20% or more from their 52-week highs. Wilson does not see that as a sign of complacency. He sees it as a market that has appropriately discounted the risks.
The key supporting argument is earnings. Price damage for the S&P 500 has been contained to less than 10% because earnings growth is moving in the opposite direction from valuations. Falling multiples alongside improving earnings growth is, in Wilson’s framing, the signature of a bull market correction rather than a bear market.
Wilson addressed the comparisons being drawn to previous oil shocks directly. In those prior cycles, he noted, earnings were already deteriorating or falling sharply when energy prices spiked.
Today, earnings are accelerating from already high levels. The median company is growing earnings per share in the double digits, the fastest pace since 2021.
Tax refunds are running more than 10% higher this year, which Wilson cited as additional context for why the oil move feels more contained in practice than in headlines.
On other risks, Wilson argued that both private credit and AI disruption appear better understood by markets, with many affected stocks already down 40% or more.
On private credit specifically, he cited colleague Vishy Tirupattur’s view that risks are material but not systemic, and that tightening in private credit could ultimately drive business back toward traditional lenders.
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