Two Sun Belt teams looking for a win collide tonight as the Arkansas State Red Wolves visit the South Alabama Jaguars.

The Red Wolves broke a four-game losing streak with a win over Texas State last time out, while South Alabama fell to Troy, marking its fifth loss in a row.

My Arkansas State vs. South Alabama predictions don’t expect much scoring from either side.

Find out more in my college football picks for Tuesday, October 14. 

Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET from Hancock Whitney Stadium in Mobile, with the game airing on ESPN2.

Arkansas State vs South Alabama prediction

Arkansas State vs South Alabama best bet: Under 59.5 (-105)

I understand the thinking that two of the worst defenses in the Sun Belt colliding could allow for a ton of points — they each give up an identical 31.7 points per game — but the Arkansas State Red Wolves can’t hold up their end of the offensive bargain.

Arkansas State has seen the Under cash in four straight, and only once in that stretch were they able to touch the 60-point plateau, that being a 31-30 win over Texas State last time out.

The Red Wolves are scoring 23.3 points per game (11th in Sun Belt) and are next to last in rushing, averaging just 119 yards per game. It makes their pass offense — fifth in the conference — too predictable, even with a Top-5 ranking in the Sun Belt.

It won’t help that the South Alabama Jaguars are third in the conference in pass defense and a Top-60 team in the nation, allowing 169.2 passing yards.

South Alabama has a 4-2-0 Over record through its first six games of the season, but none of the last four games have gone higher than 58 points.

Arkansas State vs South Alabama same-game parlay

Arkansas State QB Jaylen Raynor has only passed for more than his 250.5-yard line twice this season, but he should remember last year’s performance against South Alabama.

He went 30-for-39 for 345 yards and a TD, only the fourth time he’s hit the 300-yard passing plateau in a game since the start of last year.

Those numbers came in an 18-16 win, so he can pass big while the score stays low.

Bishop Davenport has only topped 200 yards passing once in a game this season, so his 196.5 passing line is a fair number.

It’s a line he’s passed just twice in six games this season. His dual play has been more on the run side of late, running for at least 59 yards in three of the last five, including a season-high 72 yards on 15 carries and a TD.

South Alabama should find success against this poor Red Wolves’ run defense, keeping the ball on the ground more than airing it out.

Arkansas State vs South Alabama SGP

• Under 59.5
• Jaylen Raynor Over 250.5 passing yards
• Bishop Davenport Under 196.5 passing yards

Our deep-ball SGP: Threading the needle

Chauncey Cobb has alternated between big games and sub-par efforts, and he’s coming off a seven-catch, 39-yard effort against Texas State. This was after a 126-yard game against ULM. It’s been like this all year, so a bigger effort is in store against South Alabama.

Meanwhile, Kentrel Bullock leads the Jaguars with five TDs on the season, though he’s coming off a scoreless Saturday against Troy. He has yet to go back-to-back games without a major this season.

Arkansas State vs South Alabama SGP

• Under 59.5
• Jaylen Raynor Over 250.5 passing yards
• Bishop Davenport Under 196.5 passing yards
• Chauncey Cobb Over 63.5 receiving yards
• Kentrel Bullock anytime TD

Arkansas State vs South Alabama game predictions

Arkansas State vs South Alabama moneyline prediction

I don’t advise taking the moneyline on either school, as they have three wins between them in 12 games, and any scenario is in play.

Arkansas State just knocked off Texas State, the highest-scoring team with the top running attack in the Sun Belt. And yet, it’s getting +200 odds for an outright win against a team that’s lost five straight?

There are too many variables for my liking in picking a winner straight-up here. If pressed, I lean toward South Alabama.

Arkansas State vs South Alabama spread prediction

I’d recommend steering clear of this spread, because a bevy of factors can come into play when you’re wagering on teams that are likely already out of the college football postseason picture.

However, if I were forced to wager on this, I’d be looking at the Red Wolves’ inability to cover on the road as a major factor, as they are currently 0-3-0 against the spread in away games.

South Alabama is 0-3-0 ATS as a betting favorite, but they do have the better offensive options in both the passing and rushing games. 

Arkansas State vs South Alabama Over/Under prediction

While neither defense is inspiring, the offenses aren’t good enough to capitalize, so the Under remains the play here and as our best bet.

Arkansas State vs South Alabama odds

• Spread: Arkansas State +6.5 (+100) | South Alabama -6.5 (-122)
• Moneyline: Arkansas State +205 | South Alabama -250
• Over/Under: Over 59.5 (-115) | Under 59.5 (-105)

Arkansas State vs South Alabama trend to know

The Jaguars have won five of the last six head-to-head meetings. Find more college football betting trends for Arkansas State vs South Alabama.

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