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Why do Europeans still believe a nuclear deal with Iran is possible?

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Why do Europeans still believe a nuclear deal with Iran is possible?
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Europe hopes to use diplomacy to avoid the threat of all-out war in the Middle East, amid fears that the conflict between Israel and Iran could engulf the wider region.

On Friday, the foreign ministers of France, Germany and the United Kingdom, together with the EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, will hold talks with representatives of the Tehran regime in Geneva.

The meeting aims to de-escalate the fighting between the two Middle Eastern powers, which began when Israel launched airstrikes against Iran and killed some of its top military commanders last Friday.

The Europeans seek to initiate a form of shuttle diplomacy between Israel, Iran, Washington and the main European capitals.

They would like to reestablish a security dialogue with Tehran, similar to the one interrupted in 2018 when the first Trump administration unilaterally withdrew from the Iranian nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

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The JCPA, which was signed by Iran along with China, the EU, France, Germany, Russia and the UK in 2015, stipulated an easing of Western sanctions against the Middle Eastern country in exchange for Tehran’s commitment to a drastic reduction of Uranium stockpiles and centrifuges at its nuclear facilities.

Such sites are now being targeted by Israeli missile attacks, including those at Natanz and Isfahan.  

Europe’s lost illusions?

In 2018, despite the UN nuclear agency saying that Tehran was progressively adopting the restrictions required by the agreement, Trump’s administration withdrew from the JCPOA, effectively rendering it null and void.

By walking back on the JCPOA, the US put an end to one of the main achievements of European foreign policy.

David Rigoulet-Roze, an author and associate research fellow at IRIS, a French foreign policy institute, said the cancellation of the Iranian nuclear deal of 2015 was a hasty act.

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“The agreement had the merit, despite all its imperfections, of existing, of serving as a basis, including for the possible subsequent renegotiation of something more binding”, said Rigoulet-Roze. “Even though, the Europeans were not in control of the process”.

Trade and power miscalculations

The accord represented an opportunity for the EU to reopen trade relations with Iran after decades of US and Western sanctions against the Islamic Republic.

However, after the JCPOA’s demise, the regime in Tehran stigmatised the EU for the failure of the agreement.

“Somewhat wrongly, because we obviously didn’t provoke the cancellation of the accord and we have also suffered the consequences of what is known as the extraterritoriality of American law”, Rigoulet-Roze said.

He noted the capacity of the US to impose sanctions on a global scale, particularly secondary sanctions, “which are formidable and which have obviously curbed Europe’s desire to develop trade relations that were authorised after 2015”.

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Iran has been a party to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty since the time of Shah Reza Pahlavi, who was the original founder of Iran’s nuclear programme. Therefore, Tehran has been obliged to open up its sites for inspection by UN agencies.

This motivated Brussels to treat Iran as a potentially rational actor despite its puzzling decisions and smoke and mirrors regarding its nuclear programme.

Years ago, Tehran ended its highly enriched uranium production, yet it continued developing its military conventional ballistic capabilities and financing Middle Eastern proxies, including Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.

“This was a kind of matter of national pride as far as the Iranians were concerned. So I don’t think that they, and this is in retrospect, ever planned to negotiate it away,” senior British diplomat and adviser Robert Cooper told Euronews.

A strategic nuclear force, Cooper explained, “was going to mark them out as one of the most important powers in the Middle East. And as an international power beyond the Middle East as well.” 

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The Iranian nuclear programme and the existence of uranium enrichment equipment and heavy water facilities were officially made public by then-president Mohammad Khatami, a reformist who persuaded France, Germany and the UK to reach a deal that was meant to oblige Tehran to stop the uranium enrichment.

Javier Solana, the EU foreign and security policy chief at the time, attended the negotiations in Tehran. The Spanish diplomat was one of the deal’s key architects, who believed that a deal is better than any conflict, and that the EU is best poised to broker it.

“Solana was fascinated by Iran, and you know, we had a certain admiration for it. Our aim at the time was to persuade the Iranians that a military nuclear programme would make them a target,” Cooper recalled.

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Appetite among NATO members to join Iran war ‘very limited’, says Eide

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Appetite among NATO members to join Iran war ‘very limited’, says Eide

Norway has pushed back against criticism from US President Donald Trump over what he described as “zero” European support in the conflict with Iran.

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“NATO is a defensive alliance. It is not an attack alliance,” Norway’s Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide told Euronews’ Europe Today flagship morning show.

Eide said NATO members are focused on safeguarding key global trade routes, including keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. “NATO countries are doing something, but it’s not as a party to a conflict,” he added.

Trump has repeatedly criticised NATO allies for not backing Washington in the Iran conflict. He raised the issue again during a White House meeting earlier this month with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

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Eide argued that there had been no prior preparation or consensus within the alliance. As a result, there is “very limited appetite” among member states to join the war.

He said that while both the US and Iran may have reasons to end the conflict, “the sides are far apart”, with negotiations hindered by opposing demands.

On Monday, Trump said the United States would maintain its blockade of Iranian ports until Tehran agrees to a peace deal.

Still, Eide pointed to signs of “some progress”, noting the broader global impact of the conflict. “This is not only an issue for the two sides, but it affects the whole world economy,” he said.

Addressing a European diplomatic push to establish a Palestinian state, Eide reiterated support for a two-state solution based on long-standing United Nations principles. However, he acknowledged that such an outcome is “not around the corner”.

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He added that a two-state solution is also in Israel’s interest, describing it as “the only viable solution for real peace in a very troubled region”.

Norway, alongside Spain and Ireland, recognised the State of Palestine in 2024.

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Iran War Live Updates: Trump Officials and Iran Plan New Talks Despite Mixed Messages

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Iran War Live Updates: Trump Officials and Iran Plan New Talks Despite Mixed Messages

The United States military last week extended its blockade on vessels coming in and out of Iranian ports to the waters of the wider world, declaring that it would pursue any ship aiding Iran, regardless of location on the high seas or flag.

The U.S. “will actively pursue any Iranian-flagged vessel or any vessel attempting to provide material support to Iran,” Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Thursday, noting that the American troops beyond the Middle East will engage in operations to thwart Iranian shipping.

The extension of the blockade comes as the economically vital Strait of Hormuz remains all but closed to commercial traffic and the two-week cease-fire between the United States and Iran nears an end. The move aligns longstanding American economic policies targeting Iran with the current military campaign against it, maritime and military law experts say.

But it raises a host of legal and practical questions.

“War is a messy thing not just on the combat side but under national and international law,” said James R. Holmes, chair of maritime strategy at the Naval War College.

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“From a legal standpoint, a blockade is an act of war, so the blockade probably is legal to the extent Operation Epic Fury is,” he said using the name of the U.S. military campaign against Iran.

Since Congress has not declared war against Iran, no formal state of war exists between the United States and the Islamic Republic. But Mr. Holmes noted that “undeclared wars are more the rule than the exception in U.S. history,” with joint resolutions of Congress, United Nations Security Council resolutions and NATO decisions invoked to justify fighting.

“This campaign may be more unilateral than most, but it is not without precedent,” he said.

Under international law, the legality of the blockade is “more ambiguous,” said Jennifer Kavanagh, a senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, a foreign policy think tank in Washington.

A state-organized rally in support of the supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei in Tehran on Friday.Credit…Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times

For a blockade to be legal, Ms. Kavanagh said, it must be “effective,” meaning that it is both enforceable and enforced. Some would argue that a “‘global blockade’ is not permissible in conception” because it is overly broad, she said.

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Still, expansive blockades have taken place throughout history, including during World War II, when states enforced naval blockades worldwide other than in neutral territorial seas. Over the centuries before that, the British blockaded France throughout the Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars, and during the War of American Independence, the colonies and their allies raided British shipping as far away as the Indian Ocean.

Enforcing expansive blockades is difficult, however.

“The seven seas are a big place, and the largest navy or coast guard is tiny by comparison,” Mr. Holmes said. Whether the U.S. blockade ultimately is deemed “effective,” legally speaking, will depend on whether the U.S. has enough assets like ships, aircraft, boarding crews and intelligence gathering to enforce it.

The blockade does not have to be “airtight” to meet the legal test, Mr. Holmes said, and assessing its effectiveness will be tough for outside observers in any case.

Enforcement may also have to be somewhat selective, he suggested.

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“Now, it is possible our leadership might quietly let a ship proceed when it suits the national interest,” Mr. Holmes said. “For instance, with a summit coming up between President Trump and General Secretary Xi” — Mr. Trump is to meet with China’s leader, Xi Jinping, in May — “Washington might not want to ruffle feathers by obstructing China’s oil imports.”

The expanded blockade is part of a longstanding economic campaign against Iran, but it represents something of a tactical change for the Trump administration.

Earlier in the war, the United States temporarily lifted sanctions on Iranian oil at sea to ease the pressure on global energy prices. And before imposing a blockade on Iranian ports last week, the U.S. allowed Iranian tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz for the same reason.

Now Washington seems to be returning its focus to keeping pressure on Iran.

“The blockade is a wartime extension of existing U.S. economic sanctions against the Iranian regime,” said James Kraska, professor of international maritime law and a visiting professor at Harvard Law School. In peacetime, he said, the sanctions were a “powerful tool to weaken the Iranian economy.” Now, he said, the blockade serves as a “kinetic expansion.”

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General Caine’s announcement about the expanded naval blockade came one day after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced “Operation Economic Fury,” an effort he called the “financial equivalent” of a bombing campaign. It includes secondary sanctions on institutions internationally, like banks, that have dealings with Iran.

The expanded blockade “marks a notable escalation by the United States,” said Ms. Kavanagh.

Still, she said, it is unlikely to significantly change Iranian calculations.

“For Iran, this war is existential and it is not going to cave easily or quickly,” she said. “Economic pressure may work over the very long term, but Trump seems too impatient for a deal to wait it out.”

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Deadly shooting at historic tourist site leaves one dead, several injured as motive unclear

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Deadly shooting at historic tourist site leaves one dead, several injured as motive unclear

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A Canadian woman was shot and killed Monday, and several others were injured, before a gunman took his own life at Mexico’s popular Teotihuacan pyramids. 

Mexican officials said that four people were wounded by gunfire and two others sustained injuries from falls. Among the injured were tourists from Colombia, Russia, and Canada, according to local government reports via The Associated Press.

A firearm, a bladed weapon, and live cartridges were found at the scene, Mexico’s Security Cabinet confirmed on social media.

The Pyramid of the Moon and the Pyramid of the Sun are seen along with smaller structures lining the Avenue of the Dead in Teotihuacan, Mexico, on March 19, 2020. A gunman killed a Canadian tourist and injured several other before taking his own life at the popular site, authorities said Monday. (Rebecca Blackwell/AP)

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“Our thoughts are with their family and loved ones, and consular officials are in touch to provide assistance,” Canada’s foreign ministry said in a social media post. 

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum wrote on social media that the shooting would be thoroughly investigated and that she was in contact with the Canadian Embassy.

TOURISTS TRAPPED IN PUERTO VALLARTA RECOUNT CARTEL RETALIATION AFTER EL MENCHO KILLED

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum speaks during her morning press conference at the National Palace in Mexico City on Jan. 5, 2026. (Raquel Cunha/Reuters)

“What happened today in Teotihuacan deeply pains us,” she wrote. “I express my most sincere solidarity with the affected individuals and their families.”

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MAJOR DRUG LORD ‘EL MENCHO’ KILLED IN MEXICAN MILITARY OPERATION WITH U.S. INTELLIGENCE SUPPORT

Sheinbaum said she has instructed the Security Cabinet to investigate the events and provide all necessary support to the victims.

People visit the Pyramid of the Sun in the pre-Hispanic city of Teotihuacan near Mexico City, Mexico, on March 21, 2024, following the spring equinox. (Henry Romero/Reuters)

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“Personnel from the Secretariat of the Interior and the Secretariat of Culture are already heading to the site to provide assistance and accompaniment, along with local authorities,” she said. “I am closely following the situation, and we will continue to provide timely updates through the Security Cabinet.”

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The pre-Hispanic city, located just outside Mexico City, was once one of the most significant cultural centers in Mesoamerica.

Fox News Digital has reached out to Canada’s foreign ministry for comment.

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