Business
How Hard It Is to Make Trade Deals
President Trump has announced wave after wave of tariffs since taking office in January, part of a sweeping effort that he has argued would secure better trade terms with other countries. “It’s called negotiation,” he recently said.
In April, administration officials vowed to sign trade deals with as many as 90 countries in 90 days. The ambitious target came after Mr. Trump announced, and then rolled back a portion of, steep tariffs that in some cases meant import taxes cost more than the wholesale price of a good itself.
The 90-day goal, however, is a tenth of the time it usually takes to reach a trade deal, according to a New York Times analysis of major agreements with the United States currently in effect, raising questions about how realistic the administration’s target may be. It typically takes 917 days, or roughly two and a half years, for a trade deal to go from initial talks to the president’s desk for signature, the analysis shows.
Roughly 60 days into the current process, Mr. Trump has so far announced only one deal: a pact with Britain, which is not one of America’s biggest trading partners.
He has also suggested that negotiations with China have been rocky. “I like President XI of China, always have, and always will, but he is VERY TOUGH, AND EXTREMELY HARD TO MAKE A DEAL WITH!!!” Mr. Trump wrote on Truth Social on Wednesday. China and the United States agreed last month to temporarily slash tariffs on each other’s imports in a gesture of good will to continue talks.
Part of what the president can accomplish boils down to what you can call a deal.
The pact with Britain is less of a deal than it is a framework for talking about a deal, said Wendy Cutler, the vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute and a former U.S. trade negotiator. What was officially released by the two nations more closely resembled talking points for “what you were going to negotiate versus the actual commitment,” she said.
During his first term, Mr. Trump secured two major trade agreements, both signed in January 2020. One was the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which was a reworking of the North American free trade treaty from the 1990s that had helped transform the economies of the three nations.
U.S.M.C.A. is an all-encompassing, legally binding agreement that resulted from a lengthy and formal process, according to trade analysts.
Such deals are supposed to cover all aspects of trade between the respective nations and are negotiated under specific guidelines for congressional consultation. Closing the deal involves both negotiation and ratification — modifying or making laws in each partner country. The deals are signed by trade negotiators before the president signs the legislation that puts it into effect for the United States.
Mr. Trump’s other major agreement in his first term was with China, in an echo of the current trade war. The pact, unlike previous deals, came about after Mr. Trump threatened tariffs on certain Chinese imports. This “tariff first, talk later” approach, said Inu Manak, a trade policy fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, is part of the same playbook the administration is currently using.
The result was a nonbinding agreement between the two countries, known as “Phase One,” that did not require approval from Congress and that could be ended by either party at any time. Still, it took almost one year and nine months to complete. China ultimately fell far short of the commitments it made to purchase American goods under the agreement.
A comparison of the two first-term Trump deals shows the drawn-out and sometimes winding paths each took to completion. Fragile truces (including ones made for 90 days) were formed, only for talks to break down later, all while rounds of tariffs injected uncertainty into the diplomatic relations between countries.
The Times analysis used the date from the start of negotiations to the date when the president signed to determine the length of deal making for each major agreement dating back to 1985 that’s currently in effect. The median time it took to get to the president’s signature was just over 900 days. (A separate analysis published in 2016 by the Peterson Institute for International Economics used the date of signature by country representatives as the completion moment and found that the median deal took more than 570 days.)
With roughly one month before the administration’s self-imposed deadline, Mr. Trump’s ability to forge deals has been thrust into sudden doubt. Last week, a U.S. trade court ruled he had overstepped his authority in imposing the April tariffs.
For now, the tariffs remain in place, following a temporary stay from a federal appeals court. But in arguing its case, the federal government initially said that the ruling could upset negotiations with other nations and undercut the president’s leverage.
In a statement on Wednesday, Kush Desai, a White House spokesman, said that trade negotiators were working to secure “custom-made trade deals at lightning speed that level the playing field for American industries and workers.”
But in other recent public statements, White House officials have significantly pared back their ambitions for the deals.
In April, Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, hedged the number of agreements they might reach, suggesting that the United States would talk to somewhere between 50 and 70 countries. Last month he said the United States was negotiating with 17 “very important trading relationships,” not including China.
“I think when the administration first started, they thought they could actually do these binding and enforceable deals within 90 days and then quickly realized that they bit off more than they could chew,” Ms. Cutler said.
The administration told its negotiating partners to submit offers of trade concessions they were willing to make by Wednesday, in an effort to strike trade deals in the coming weeks. The deadline was earlier reported by Reuters.
The current approach to deal making may be strategic, Ms. Manak said. One of the benefits of not doing a comprehensive deal like U.S.M.C.A. is that the administration can declare small “victories” on a much faster timeline, she said.
“It means that trade agreements simply are just not what they used to be,” she added. “And you can’t really guarantee that whatever the U.S. promises is actually going to be upheld in the long run.”
Data and graphics are based on a New York Times analysis of information from the Congressional Research Service, the U.S. Trade Representative, the Organization of American States’ Foreign Trade Information System and public White House communications.
Business
Ex-Google engineer convicted of stealing AI trade secrets to benefit China
A former software engineer at Google has been convicted of stealing artificial intelligence trade secrets for the benefit of China, the U.S. Department of Justice said.
A federal jury on Thursday convicted Linwei Ding, 38, of seven counts of economic espionage and seven counts of theft of trade secrets after an 11-day trial in the U.S. District Court in the Northern District of California.
The verdict marked the Justice Department’s first conviction on AI-related economic espionage charges, according to a statement from Roman Rozhavsky, assistant director of the FBI’s counterintelligence and espionage division.
Ding’s attorney did not respond to an email seeking comment Friday.
Ding stole more than 2,000 pages of confidential information containing Google’s AI trade secrets from the company’s network and uploaded them to his personal Google cloud account between May 2022 and April 2023, according to evidence presented at trial.
At the same time, he secretly worked with two Beijing-based technology companies, staging discussions with one early-stage company to be its chief technology officer, and later acting as founder and chief executive of a second startup, prosecutors said. He told potential investors that he could build an AI supercomputer by copying Google’s technology, court documents state.
Ding downloaded the trade secrets to his personal computer less than two weeks before he resigned from Google in December 2023, prosecutors said. He also applied for what prosecutors described as a Chinese government-sponsored “talent plan” intended to attract people to contribute to the country’s economic and technological growth.
His application stated that he planned to “help China to have computing power infrastructure capabilities that are on par with the international level,” prosecutors said.
“This conviction reinforces the FBI’s steadfast commitment to protecting American innovation and national security,” FBI Special Agent in Charge Sanjay Virmani said in a statement.
“The theft and misuse of advanced artificial intelligence technology” to benefit China, Virmani added, “threatens our technological edge and economic competitiveness.”
Ding faces a maximum possible sentence of 10 years in prison for each count of theft of trade secrets and 15 years in prison for each count of economic espionage. He’s next due in court Tuesday for a status conference.
“We’re grateful to the jury for making sure justice was served today, sending a clear message that stealing trade secrets has serious consequences.” Lee-Anne Mulholland, vice president of regulatory affairs for Google, said in a statement.
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Business
Dream of owning a flying car? This California company is already selling them
A future with flying cars is no longer science fiction — all you need to order your own is about $200,000 and some hope and patience.
The Palo Alto-based company Pivotal has been developing the technology since 2009 and is nearly ready to bring it to market. The company’s founder Marcus Leng was the first to fly in its real-life version of a flying car in 2011.
Leng engineered an ultralight, electric-powered vertical takeoff and landing aircraft known as an eVTOL. Other VTOL aircraft, such as helicopters, had existed for decades, but Leng’s invention was fixed-wing and didn’t rely on gas.
The Canadian engineer dubbed his creation BlackFly and spent years working on it in secret.
The company moved to the Bay Area in 2014 and by 2018 had developed a second version of BlackFly that laid the groundwork for Helix, the aircraft Pivotal now offers for sale.
Pilot Aeddon Chipman readies the Pivotal BlackFly in Watsonville, Calif.
“The company kind of came out of stealth at that point and said, ‘This is what we’re up to,’ ” said Pivotal Chief Executive Ken Karklin, who took over company leadership from Leng in 2022.
Those who are curious — and wealthy — can reserve a Helix today with a $50,000 deposit. The aircraft starts at $190,000 with the option of purchasing a transport trailer for $21,000 and a charger for $1,100.
A customer who makes their reservation today could receive their aircraft in nine to 12 months, Karklin said. It takes less than two weeks to learn how to fly it.
In order to complete Pivotal’s flight certification training, a customer has to pass the FAA knowledge test and complete ground school. Training, which takes place at the company’s Palo Alto headquarters and at the Monterey Bay Academy Airport, teaches customers how to control and maintain the aircraft, as well as how to transport and assemble it.
Pivotal, formerly known as Opener, publicly introduced the BlackFly in July 2018. In October 2023, the company unveiled Helix, calling it the first scalable aircraft of its kind.
The Pivotal Black Fly takes off near Watsonville, Calif.
A handful of California companies are using eVTOL technology to develop what they call air taxis to shuttle people around congested cities. But Pivotal says it offers something different: a single-person aircraft for recreational use and short-haul travel that also has the potential to support emergency response and military operations.
It is uncertain how fast the company and others like it can ramp up production and how communities will react. Not everyone is on board. Darlene Yaplee, president of the Aviation-Impacted Communities Alliance, said there are concerns about having different types of aircraft in limited airspace.
Pivotal has around six early-access customers who already own a version of the BlackFly and are flying it for fun. The aircraft is designed to be accessible and user-friendly, and you don’t need a pilot’s license to operate it.
Tim Lum, a Washington state resident, bought his BlackFly in 2023. He’s since taken it on around 1,200 flights in 100 different locations across the U.S.
The Pivotal BlackFly cruises in the air.
Lum, who isn’t an FAA-certified pilot, said owning a BlackFly is like a dream. He can take off and land anywhere with 100 feet of clearance and permission if on private land. He also uses small, private airports.
The aircraft is stored in Twisp, Wash., but Lum has towed it coast to coast, stopping to fly in states such as Florida, Montana and California. He shares it with family and friends who also trained to get certified by the company.
“Something really happens to the synapses in my brain when I’m flying,” Lum said. “Things get sorted out and things make sense. This has opened up more doors for me and the people that I care about than money can buy.”
Pilot Aeddon Chipman launches the Pivotal BlackFly.
The Helix is classified as a Part 103 ultralight aircraft, the same regulatory class as a hang glider. It’s meant to be flown less than 200 feet high, in unregulated airspace, and weighs about 355 pounds empty.
Karklin said the company has received about a year’s worth of reservations for Helix. He did not specify the number of customers but said it was more than 10.
Karklin has been getting Pivotal ready for a wider market. The company, which has more than 100 full-time employees, has trained just over 50 people to fly its aircraft. Customers and employees have been trained.
Pivotal’s business will operate across three segments, Karklin said, including personal use, public safety and defense.
“You’re going to see business generated by all three,” he said. “We talk about recreation and short hop travel, and sometimes folks can be a little dismissive about that. I think that’s a huge mistake.”
The Pivotal BlackFly in flight.
In 2023, Pivotal leased eight aircraft to an innovation arm of the U.S. Air Force and defense technology firm MTSI. The Air Force conducted nondevelopmental testing and evaluation of the vehicle that informed the latest version of Helix.
Helix will have an electric range of about 30 minutes and a cruise speed of 62 mph, the company said. It takes 75 minutes to charge it using a 240 volt charger.
The noise produced by the aircraft during takeoff and landing is equivalent to a couple of leaf blowers, Karklin said. When flying it is overhead, someone on the ground might not be able to hear it.
Karklin said the simplicity of the aircraft comes with lower cost, lower weight and higher safety. The aircraft, which has only 18 moving parts, is full of redundancy to prevent system failures.
It’s been independently evaluated by the Light Aircraft Manufacturers Assn., and Pivotal’s quality management system has received a certification from SAE International, which sets aviation safety standards.
The company completes flight demonstrations frequently at the Monterey Bay Academy Airport, near the coast in Watsonville.
When Helix flies, it turns heads, Karklin said.
“It’s starting to get very real,” he said. “More people can actually see it in person and touch it and feel it. And then they want to get on.”
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