Business
US Dollar Keeps Falling as Trump’s Tariffs Rattle Investors
The U.S. dollar extended its slide against other major currencies on Monday, the latest sign that investors may be starting to shun what has long been the safest haven in global financial markets.
An index that tracks the dollar against a basket of major trading partners fell for a fifth straight day, even as U.S. stocks and bonds rallied. The dollar has fallen by roughly 8 percent this year, trading near a three-year low.
There has been a particularly steep decline since President Trump announced tariffs on nearly every country’s imports a few weeks ago. The dollar has lost value against the euro, the yen, the pound and a host of other currencies, making imports from those countries more expensive for Americans, even before tariffs are applied.
Investors and many of Mr. Trump’s advisers had expected the dollar to strengthen as tariffs were put in place, given the conventional wisdom that the levies would discourage Americans from purchasing imported goods and in turn reduce the demand for foreign currency. Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, argued that the dollar’s appreciation would be significant enough to offset a rise in inflation.
In an interview with Bloomberg on Monday, Mr. Bessent sought to push back on concerns about the recent weakening of the dollar, saying it was still “strong” and the “global reserve currency.”
But the magnitude of the tariffs that Mr. Trump has announced has been more substantial than many expected, unleashing turbulence acute enough to raise questions about whether U.S. assets have lost their luster. On multiple days in recent weeks, when the dollar was selling off, so were U.S. stocks and government bonds, a combination that Krishna Guha, vice chairman at Evercore ISI, described as “rare, ugly and worrying.”
In part, the turmoil reflects the confusion about Mr. Trump’s plans for tariffs. Mixed messages about exemptions and pauses, and which products and countries might be hit with new tariffs, have rattled investors who have long seen dollar-denominated assets like U.S. Treasury bonds as the surest thing in finance.
“Both institutional investors and central banks are having to begin to think about what would happen should the dollar and the Treasury market no longer be the safe haven,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at the consulting firm RSM.
Sharp moves in the value of the dollar can have a destabilizing effect on the global economy, because it serves as a central pillar of the financial system. The dollar is on one side of nearly 90 percent of all foreign-exchange trades, according to the Bank for International Settlements, from Americans abroad using their credit cards to large corporations making billion-dollar takeovers. Essential commodities, like oil, are also typically priced in dollars, regardless of who is buying or selling.
Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations who previously worked at the Treasury Department, said there were reasons not to read too much into the dollar’s sell-off.
For nearly a decade, U.S. assets have been among the best performers in the world — consider the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks that propelled the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to a series of record highs.
“A lot of the money coming into the U.S. hasn’t been coming to the U.S. seeking safety. It’s been coming to the U.S. seeking yield and chasing the run-up in U.S. equities,” he said.
“In that context,” he added, “when there’s a general move to reduce risk — because the world certainly seems a lot riskier after Trump’s tariff announcement — some of that money that was betting on U.S. outperformance and the U.S. continuing to offer outsized returns is being unwound.”
Economists now see much higher odds of a recession in the United States because of escalating trade tensions. That may mean the Fed will be compelled at some point to start lowering interest rates to protect the labor market. Lower rates make holding dollar-denominated assets less appealing, which could put more pressure on the currency. While the bar for future cuts appears high given that inflation is poised to rise as growth slows, signs that the economy is hurtling toward a recession could change the central bank’s approach.
If that transpired, Christopher J. Waller, a Fed governor, would support cutting rates “sooner and to a greater extent” than initially expected, he said on Monday. In a speech, he also acknowledged the turbulence caused by Mr. Trump’s tariffs, saying it was an “understatement to say that financial markets did not respond well” to them.
The dollar would be destabilized further if Mr. Trump sought to undermine the independence of the Fed, which sets interest rates free from political influence. Mr. Bessent said on Monday that monetary policy was a “jewel box that’s got to be preserved.”
Mr. Trump will have a chance to pick a new chair of the Fed after Jerome H. Powell’s term expires in May 2026. The administration will begin that process in the fall, Mr. Bessent said.
But even Mr. Setser acknowledged that there might be something more fundamentally worrying to the dollar’s slide than simply a shift in expectations about the economic outlook.
“It is not crazy to think that after a period of exceptional policy volatility in the United States and with real risk of recession, that some foreign investors might wonder whether they should continue to put an ever increasing amount of money into the United States,” he said.
Business
Amazon MGM Studios’ ‘Project Hail Mary’ rockets to the top of the box office
The Ryan Gosling-led “Project Hail Mary” rocketed to the top of the box office this weekend, marking a big win for Amazon MGM Studios.
The film — which stars Gosling as a science teacher who embarks on a space mission to save humanity — hauled in $80.5 million in the U.S. and Canada, making it the biggest domestic debut of the year so far. Globally, “Project Hail Mary” brought in $140.9 million.
The movie is an adaptation of a novel by Andy Weir, author of “The Martian” — another successful book-to-screen adventure. The big opening weekend for “Project Hail Mary” is a boost for Amazon MGM Studios, which had heavily promoted the film as an example of the big blockbusters it could produce.
“We believe deeply in the Hail Mary, and it’s clear audiences do as well,” Kevin Wilson, head of domestic theatrical distribution for Amazon MGM Studios, said in a statement. “What we’re seeing in theaters —the energy, the exit scores, the word of mouth — is everything we believed this film would deliver.”
Walt Disney Co. and Pixar’s “Hoppers” came in second at the box office this weekend with a domestic total of $18 million. The original animated film has now garnered $120.4 million in the U.S. and Canada since it debuted in theaters earlier this month.
Indian action film “Dhurandhar The Revenge” came in third with $10 million, followed by Disney-owned Searchlight Pictures’ horror film “Ready or Not 2: Here I Come” and Universal Pictures’ romance “Reminders of Him” rounding out the top five.
Business
Testing for toxins in smoke-damaged homes could be mandatory. What to know
When the January 2025 firestorms swept through Altadena and Pacific Palisades they not only burned down homes but left thousands still standing riddled with smoke damage.
The disaster set the stage for lawsuits by fire victims who alleged their homes were filled with toxic contaminants, yet insurers refused to do hygienic testing and properly clean and make them habitable again.
This week, a much-anticipated bill was unveiled in the Legislature that would establish first-in-the-nation limits for smoke-damage contaminants, require testing and force insurers to restore homes to their prior condition.
The proposed law specifically applies to homes damaged in urban or “wildland-urban interface” fires — such as those in January 2025 — where burning structures, cars, utilities and other items generate more toxins than a rural wildfire.
Authored by Assemblymember Mike Gipson (D-Carson) and sponsored by Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara, Assembly Bill 1795 follows similar legislation introduced by Assemblymember John Harabedian (D-Pasadena).
That bill would apply to homes, schools and workplaces — and their properties — requiring insurers to meet existing health standards for lead and asbestos cleanup, while having the state develop additional ones for other contaminants.
Lara’s bill also follows a report issued last week by a smoke-damage task force he established last year, which established the framework for the bill. However, consumer advocates said it was stacked with members tied to the insurance industry.
Lara, who has been asked to step down by critics over his handling of insurers’ claims practices, has defended the task force and his handling of the wildfires, noting his department is investigating insurers.
Here’s what to know about the legislation, which still must go through legislative hearings before an Assembly vote.
Why is this bill a big deal?
Under the current system, insurers are not required to pay for expensive hygienic testing for toxins in smoke-damaged homes. That has been a big source of friction with fire victims, fueling the ongoing litigation over the matter.
Under the bill, however, insurers would be required to cover testing for lead, asbestos and other contaminants that have been found in soot, char and ash inside homes after a wildfire. Such testing would be required both before and after any cleanup work has begun to ensure the home is left in “preloss” condition. Additionally, it sets timelines for claims payments and prohibits insurers from halting payments for temporary housing until a home is cleared as safe, if a state of emergency has been declared.
Who will determine what levels of various contaminants are safe?
The bill requires the California Environmental Protection Agency to develop minimum sampling, testing and chemical screening levels by June 30, 2027. The requirements would be most rigorous in a “high-impact” zone within six miles of a fire perimeter, with potentially lesser requirements for residences as they get further away. The zones and testing requirements could be adjusted for specific fires.
The agency also is required to establish training standards and certification requirements for inspectors and others involved in the testing and restoration of properties.
How does this help the January 2025 fire victims?
More than 40,000 insurance claims have been filed as a result of the Eaton and Palisades fires, with more than 13,000 for smoke damage.
The bill allows the EPA, state and local agencies to establish expedited “interim” standards. Insurance department spokesman Michael Soller said this provision was written with the January 2025 fires in mind.
What do consumer advocates say?
They generally support the proposed changes. Amy Bach, executive director for United Policyholders in San Francisco, who sat on the smoke task force and was critical of its makeup, said she was pleased that the bill “acknowledges the perspectives of the homeowners and will advance their interests in an important way.” But she expects insurers will complain it’s too costly and threaten to leave the state if the bill is not toned down.
Attorney Dylan Schaffer, who has sued the California Fair Plan, the state’s insurer of last resort, over its smoke-damage practices, said the bill was a “very strong nod in the right direction” though it will be the final standards established by the state for testing and cleanup that will be most important. “It always gets down to the details,” he said.
What is the industry’s reaction?
The insurance industry is expected to lobby for changes to the bill, suggesting it could impose burdensome costs on companies.
Karen Collins, a vice president of the American Property Casualty Insurance Assn., said that “insurers support science‑based approaches to evaluating smoke damage and guiding appropriate remediation” but want to “help ensure the bill strikes a reasonable balance — protecting consumers while preserving insurance affordability, availability, and market stability.”
Rex Frazier, president of the Personal Insurance Federation of California, an industry group representing state property and casualty insurers, also said the bill lacks analysis of the “tradeoffs” between the higher claims payments that will result from it and and its effect on consumer premiums.
He also was concerned that the bill appears to bypass traditional rule-making procedures and allow the state EPA to establish the toxic contaminant and other standards without public hearings.
Soller said the intent of the bill is to allow the agency to forgo hearings only in developing interim standards.
Business
San Diego County agency selling water to keep its high rates in check
San Diego County’s water agency is selling some of its water to another Southern California agency to help limit increasingly high water costs for 3.3 million people.
The water is going to Western Municipal Water District, which serves a growing area of nearly 1 million people in Riverside County, including Corona, Riverside and Temecula.
The San Diego County Water Authority will transfer at least 10,000 acre-feet of water per year over the next 21 years, enough for about 30,000 typical households.
The agencies said the deal will be worth about $100 million over the first five years.
The San Diego County agency has invested heavily to get more water in recent decades. In 2003, it struck an agriculture-to-urban transfer deal and it also buys water from the Carlsbad desalination plant under a 30-year agreement. These actions have brought San Diego County plentiful water — also some of the most expensive in the state. At the same time, conservation efforts in San Diego County have reduced water needs.
The San Diego County Water Authority delivers water to 22 cities and other agencies. Last year its board approved raising wholesale water rates 8.3%, which drew criticism from residents who said they were already struggling to afford their water bills.
Board Chair Nick Serrano said the deal “allows us to maximize the value of the investments San Diego County residents made over decades, strengthen water reliability, and do so in a way that is mindful of affordability.”
The two agencies said in a joint statement on Thursday that for Western Municipal, the additional water will help during drought and ensure reliable water without the cost and time involved in developing new water infrastructure projects.
The water will move from one area to the other through the pipelines of the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, the regional wholesaler that imports water from the Colorado River and Northern California. Both San Diego County and Western Municipal are members of the MWD.
An agreement between the MWD and the San Diego County Water Authority last year ended a 15-year legal battle over water costs and cleared the way for San Diego County to start selling some of its excess water to areas that need it.
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