BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Indiana’s season of ups and downs culminates with a crucial bubble game on senior day Saturday against Ohio State. 

The Hoosiers split their trip to the Pacific Northwest with a 78-62 win at Washington and a 73-64 loss at Oregon, dropping to 18-12 overall and 9-10 in Big Ten play. As of Thursday morning, Joe Lunardi placed Indiana among the last four teams in the NCAA Tournament. 

Ohio State is in similar standing as one of the last four byes to the big dance, according to Lunardi. In their first season under coach Jake Diebler, the Buckeyes are 17-13 overall and 9-10 in the Big Ten after Tuesday’s double-overtime win over Nebraska. 

That sets up an NCAA Tournament play-in game of sorts between the Hoosiers and Buckeyes at 3:45 p.m. ET Saturday at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall in Bloomington, though both teams could also need a win or two in the Big Ten Tournament, depending on bid stealers and results from other bubble teams.

Here’s a closer look at the Buckeyes ahead of Saturday’s matchup.

Key players

Key departures

(2034-24 stats)

2024-25 schedule (17-13, 9-10)

Head coach: Jake Diebler

Diebler is in his first full season as Ohio State’s head coach after taking over for Chris Holtmann late last season as the interim head coach. Diebler went 8-3 with the Buckeyes last season, including a four-game win streak at the end of the regular season, a win in the Big Ten Tournament and two wins in the NIT. Diebler has been on the Ohio State staff since 2019, beginning as an assistant and later being promoted to associate head coach and interim head coach. He was also an assistant at Vanderbilt from 2016-19 and at Valparaiso from 2009-13. Diebler, 38, played at Valparaiso from 2005-09.

Series history

Indiana leads the all-time series 113-87. The Hoosiers have won four straight games, including a 77-76 overtime win at Ohio State on Jan. 17. Luke Goode led the Hoosiers with 23 points, and Oumar Ballo scored 21. Woodson is 5-1 against the Buckeyes with a 3-0 record in Bloomington. Archie Miller went 1-6. Indiana is 21-23 against Ohio State since 2000.

Strengths

Ohio State ranks 25th nationally in offensive efficiency for a few key reasons. Opponents average just 4.2 steals per game, giving the Buckeyes the nation’s best mark. They shoot 37.5% from 3-point range, good for 32nd. They rank top 75 in both free throw attempts per game and percentage, as well as overall field goal percentage. 

The offense is run by three-year starter Bruce Thornton, one of the Big Ten’s best point guards. His 2.85 assist-to-turnover ratio is third among conference point guards, behind Braden Smith and Jeremy Fears Jr. He’s also become a greater 3-point shooting threat with a career-best 43.2% this season on 4.4 attempts per game. 

Ohio State’s 22.1 3-point attempts per game rank just 209th nationally, but it has several capable shooters. Along with Thornton, freshman John Mobley Jr. shoots 40.2% from three and leads all Big Ten players with 74 made threes. Micah Parrish also shoots a solid 36%, but Ohio State’s 3-point shooting options pretty much stop there. Opponents have shot just 30.2% from beyond the arc against Ohio State, placing it 19th from a defensive standpoint. 

Weaknesses

Indiana’s biggest advantage in this game comes in the front court. Devin Royal is having a breakout sophomore season, going from 4.7 to 13.6 points per game, but at 6-foot-6 he’s giving up a lot of size to Indiana’s 6-foot-9 Malik Reneau and 7-footer Oumar Ballo. Fellow sophomore Sean Stewart starts at center and provides more size at 6-foot-9, but that’s still a mismatch against Ballo, who had 21 points in the first matchup. 

The Buckeyes bring 7-footers Aaron Bradshaw and Ivan Njegovan and 6-foot-10 sophomore Austin Parks off the bench, but all three are still young and developing players. Bradshaw, a former top-five recruit and transfer from Kentucky, hasn’t lived up to expectations at 6.5 points per game. 

Ohio State is not a strong rebounding team, ranking 215th in offensive rebounding percentage with a minus-0.2 rebounding margin. Expect Indiana to give Ballo and Reneau a heavy dose of touches inside and for its guards to attack the rim.

Season and game outlook

Ohio State was picked to finish eighth in the preseason Big Ten poll, and it’ll finish either ninth or 10th based on Saturday’s outcome. The Buckeyes are No. 36 in the NET rankings, making it a Quad 2 opportunity for Indiana. The Hoosiers are No. 55 in the NET, so it’s a Quad 1 game for Ohio State on the road. Both teams are squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble, and a win Saturday would certainly help them earn a bid. The loser would need to pick up a couple wins next week. 

For Big Ten Tournament purposes, it’s pretty simple – the winner is the No. 9 seed and the loser is the No. 10 seed. After the first matchup went to overtime, KenPom projects a 75-74 Indiana victory and gives the Hoosiers a 54% chance of victory Saturday at home. Ohio State has the 3-point shooting advantage and the better point guard, but Indiana’s advantage in the frontcourt is significant.