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Alaska Permanent Fund has a 46% chance in the next decade of failing to fund services and the PFD, forecasts show, as lawmakers talk reforms

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Alaska Permanent Fund has a 46% chance in the next decade of failing to fund services and the PFD, forecasts show, as lawmakers talk reforms


Deven Mitchell, CEO of the Alaska Permanent Fund Corp., far right, answers questions from legislators on calls from trustees to turn the fund into an endowment on March 4, 2025 in Juneau. Jason Brune, chair of the fund’s board, sits to the left of Mitchell. (Sean Maguire/ADN)

JUNEAU — The Alaska Permanent Fund has a serious risk of failing to fund state services and the Permanent Fund dividend in the next decade, according to projections by the nonpartisan Legislative Finance Division.

The Permanent Fund’s board has long urged lawmakers to convert the fund’s two-account structure into an endowment model to ensure its long-term sustainability. Legislators have started discussing amendments to the Alaska Constitution to follow the board’s recommendations.

Annual withdrawals would be capped at 5% of the Permanent Fund’s overall value. But that figure could be subject to debate.

The Legislature in 2018 approved Senate Bill 26, which established the current 5% draw limit in state statute. The measure allowed Permanent Fund earnings to start contributing to the state budget.

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Since then, the Permanent Fund has provided the bulk of state revenue for services and the PFD. But the fund has been stressed.

According to modeling by the Legislative Finance Division, the Permanent Fund has an almost 50% chance in the next decade of failing to provide the annual draw for services and the dividend.

”That’s scary,” said Jason Brune, chair of the Permanent Fund’s board.

Permanent Fund managers started the fiscal year in July with a roughly $600 million shortfall. Investment earnings have since helped bridge that gap, but Deven Mitchell, CEO of the Alaska Permanent Fund Corp., said that exposed a worrying trend.

”That was the first time that had happened. So, it’s the canary in the coal mine,” he said Tuesday to the joint Legislative and Budget Audit Committee.

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Most of the $81 billion Permanent Fund is constitutionally protected. However, the fund’s investment earnings are deposited into the $9.4 billion Earnings Reserve Account, which can be spent by a simple majority of legislators.

For over 20 years, the Permanent Fund’s board of trustees has called on lawmakers to establish a single-account structure and a 5% draw limit in the constitution. The board issued a 49-page resolution last year urging lawmakers to enact those reforms.

Trustees warned that depleting the spendable portion of the Permanent Fund would “immediately result in a fiscal crisis” that would jeopardize the budget and the PFD.

“We want to ensure that there’s an ability to provide a payment to the state of Alaska each and every year. We don’t want to have a 46% probability of failure,” Mitchell said.

Prior to the enactment of SB 26, Alexei Painter, director of the Legislative Finance Division, said the state had been running a $3 billion deficit each year for several years.

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This year, legislators are facing a $536 million deficit over two fiscal years based on status quo spending. Senators recently unveiled revenue measures, including oil tax hikes, as ways to potentially bridge that fiscal gap.

“Oil is not paying the bills anymore,” Anchorage Republican Sen. Cathy Giessel said Tuesday.

Advocates say a single-account structure would act as a spending cap for lawmakers and ensure the long-term stability of the Permanent Fund. Additionally, it would avoid the need for an annual inflation-proofing appropriation — $1 billion this year — to preserve its real value.

Anchorage independent Rep. Calvin Schrage introduced a constitutional amendment last month that followed the board’s recommendations. He said the Permanent Fund provides a reliable source of revenue, and that it should be protected in the constitution.

“There’s a real risk that the Legislature could overdraw the fund. We’ve seen attempts to do that multiple times,” he said.

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Lawmakers say there is a broad recognition that Permanent Fund reforms are needed.

Anchorage Sen. James Kaufman, a member of the Senate’s GOP minority, said the potential for a cash flow crunch is one of the state’s “most ignored financial issues.”

Kaufman introduced his own constitutional amendment proposal for a single-account structure. The draw rate would be capped at 5.25%, but Kaufman said Monday that it could be amended.

Sitka Republican Sen. Bert Stedman argued Tuesday that the 5% limit was already too high. He said that pushed the fund’s managers into “more aggressive asset classes” to meet its statutory requirements.

But the Legislative Finance Division cautioned that lowering the draw rate to 4.5% would see the deficit balloon by an additional $380 million.

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Members of the Senate majority are set to introduce their own Permanent Fund constitutional amendment proposal in the coming days, Giessel said Tuesday.

A constitutional amendment requires support from two-thirds of lawmakers in the House and the Senate. Unlike regular bills, the governor cannot veto a constitutional amendment. Instead, it would then go for an up-or-down vote at the next statewide election.

The Alaska Constitution was last amended in 2004.





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Opinion: Life lessons learned from mushing and old-time Alaska

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Opinion: Life lessons learned from mushing and old-time Alaska


A steel arch commemorating sled dog racing was installed over Fourth Avenue in downtown Anchorage in November 2025. (Marc Lester / ADN)

This is the beginning of the Iditarod spring, signaled by the burst of sun and what used to be the long wait for dog teams to pass under the arch in Nome, the finish line a thousand miles away from Anchorage. For old-timers, it’s the story of the way Alaska used to be. What once was a 30-day wait has become about 10 days for winners to celebrate and the rest of us to shout, “Well done.”

My story is about family that welcomed immigrants from all over the world to be among the last groups of Indigenous people in the country, a life of taking good care of dog teams, and of parents who taught their children how to live in a wild, rugged frontier.

I came to be in a different age, a time of dog teams that ruled the trails to mining camps and where the salmon ran strongest — before the introduction of the snowmachine that revolutionized rural and Native Alaska.

For the Blatchford family, it is a recognition that some things will always stay the same and everything else changes. All four of my grandparents were noncitizens. My mother Lena’s parents of Elim were Alaska Natives, as was my dad Ernie’s mother, Mae, of Shishmaref. The name Blatchford comes from his father, the Englishman who was born in Cornwall and arrived in Nome during the gold rush. His brother, William, was one of the early immigrants, and by 1899 there was a creek just outside Nome named after him. He discovered gold. My grandfather, Percy, found gold, too, but it was a different kind of wealth, a finding that he had found home and never left.

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I was born in Nome, delivered by an Iñupiaq Eskimo midwife in a one-room cabin where the frozen Bering Sea met the treeless tundra’s permafrost. Dad had a dog team. I like to think that the dogs were anxious for me to be born because it was hunting time for Dad to hitch them up and mush out to where the sea mammals, snowshoe hares, ptarmigan and other game thrived in the winter. My earliest memories are of dogs; all of them working as a team to bring home the game so we could have a fine meal cooked by Lena. In the Arctic, dogs were essential for family survival. If you didn’t hunt, you didn’t eat.

There are several memories that remain strong. I suppose I can call them lessons of the Arctic.

The first is to take care of the dogs and treat them well. Dog lovers all over the world know very well that a dog, whatever the breed, is loyal and will die to protect the one who feeds and pets it. If you don’t feed a husky, it won’t pull, and it could mean a long time before the family eats. When a dog team is hungry, it will race back home to be fed a healthy meal. Mother Lena must have been a great cook because Dad said the dog team always raced back to the edge of Nome, where Lena was waiting beside the propane stove. For Mike, Tom and me, our job was to take the rifle, shotgun and .22 into the cabin to be cleaned and oiled. Once that was quickly done, we unhitched the dogs and then fed the team.

All three of us boys had special responsibilities to Tim, Buttons and Girlie. Tim, the lead dog, was brother Mike’s pet; Tom had Buttons, and I had Girlie. We made sure they were healthy and well cared for. Dad would often comment that “Papa,” our grandfather Percy, the Englishman, took good care of his dog teams, being kind to the dogs and feeding them. Dad was the oldest of a large family that lived in Teller and later Nome.

“Papa” Percy was a prospector, fox farmer and a contestant in the All-Alaska Sweepstakes, the dog team race from Nome to the mining camp of Candle, a 400-mile race. He didn’t win, but he finished well, very well. The stories of the Sweepstakes have remained with the family for over a century. At a memorial service in Palmer for “Doc” Blatchford, Aunt Marge, without a question or a prompt, said that Papa took good care of his dogs.

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Percy Blatchford was a legend in the Alaska Territory. As a teacher of Alaska newspapers, I would find headlines similar to one in the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner that blazed on the front page: “Blatchford Wins Solomon Derby.” There was even a story in The New York Times.

There’s probably no other sport in Alaska that brought Alaskans together like dog mushing. When old-timers would visit over strong coffee, dogs and dog team racing would come up. In the territory, there were few high schools and fewer gymnasiums, so the only team sport was dog mushing. It was something to talk about that was unique to Alaskans.

I used to travel in rural Alaska quite a bit. In the smaller communities, I would see the teams and would wonder how long they would power the engines that brought the mail and the foodstuffs down and up the trails. When I think of dog teaming, I think of the Iditarod and wonder, and then come to know, what the strength of the story would mean for bringing generations together from Papa Blatchford to his eldest son Ernie and to the fourth generation of Blatchfords in Alaska.

There are times when I think that old-time Alaska is gone. But then my faith and confidence in the old-time spirit are ignited when I see what others in the Lower 48 see. When I was walking in downtown Philadelphia, I looked up and saw on an ancient federal building a stamped concrete sculpture of a dog musher leaning into a blizzard. Such is the way I think of the Iditarod and the lessons I learned growing up with the dog team, preserved in my memories.

Edgar Blatchford is former mayor of Seward, Mile 0 of the Iditarod Trail.

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These lines are adding Alaska cruises. Is your favorite on the list?

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These lines are adding Alaska cruises. Is your favorite on the list?



New Alaska voyages debut in 2026 as lines like MSC Cruises and Virgin Voyages expand into the booming market.

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Travelers will have new ways to see Alaska this year.

A number of cruise lines are launching sailings to the Last Frontier in 2026, from luxury to large family-friendly and adults-only ships. About 65% of people visiting the state during the summer do so by cruise ship, according to Cruise Lines International Association Alaska, and demand is high.

“I think Alaska is always very popular, but we’re seeing that ships are selling out way quicker than they used to,” Joanna Kuther, a travel agent and owner of Port Side Travel Consultants, told USA TODAY. 

With new inventory opening up this season, here’s what travelers should know about Alaska cruises.

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Which cruise lines are adding Alaska sailings?

  • MSC Cruises will launch its first-ever Alaska sailings aboard MSC Poesia on May 11. The ship will be fresh from dry dock to add enhancements, including the line’s luxe ship-within-a-ship concept, the MSC Yacht Club.
  • Virgin Voyages’ newest ship, Brilliant Lady, will operate the company’s inaugural Alaska cruises. The adults-only cruise line will set sail there starting on May 21.
  • The Ritz-Carlton Yacht Collection will debut its first Alaska cruises this year on its Luminara vessel. The first of those sailings will depart on May 28.

Those join other operators like Holland America Line, Princess Cruises, American Cruise Lines, Norwegian Cruise Line, Royal Caribbean International, Disney Cruise Line, Celebrity Cruises and more.

What are the draws of Alaska cruises?

Glaciers are a major attraction for visitors. “One of the major (draws) is Glacier Bay,” said Kuther. “…And then the other one is definitely the wildlife.”

That includes bears, whales, moose and salmon. In addition to its many natural wonders, the state is also a cultural destination where visitors can learn about its Native peoples.

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When is the best time to take an Alaska cruise?

That depends what you’re looking for. The Alaska cruise season generally runs from April through October, and Kuther said visitors will tend to see more wildlife between the end of June through August.

“That’s super peak season,” she said. “That’s also where you’re going to have more families, more crowds.” Some locals have also said those crowds are putting a strain on the very environment tourists are there to see.

Travelers may find less packed ships and ports by visiting earlier or later in the season – and there are other perks. If passengers go in May “it’s still a little bit snowy, so your scenery is going to be really cool,” Kuther said. Travelers visiting in September or October, meanwhile, could have a better shot at seeing the northern lights.

Where do ships usually sail?

The most popular itinerary is the Inside Passage, according to Kuther. That often sails round-trip from Seattle or Vancouver with stops such as Juneau, Skagway and Ketchikan. “People will go back to Alaska and do different routes,” she said. “This is a very good way to start.” 

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Other options include one-way cruises between Vancouver or Seattle and Anchorage. Travelers can also take cruisetours that combine sailings with land-based exploration, including train rides and tours of Denali National Park and Preserve.

Tips for Alaska cruises

  • Book early: Alaska itineraries sell out quickly, and so do shore excursions. Unique offerings like helicopter tours and dog sledding are popular, and there are only so many spots.
  • Consider a balcony cabin: This is “almost a must” in Kuther’s opinion. Crew members may make announcements about whales or other sightings near the ship, and guests with their own private viewing spot won’t have to race out on deck.
  • Pack carefully: “Packing is an art when it comes to Alaska,” Kuther said. “It really is, because you need so many things.” Her top three picks are bug spray, layers of clothing for the fluctuating temperatures and a waterproof jacket in case of rain.

Nathan Diller is a consumer travel reporter for USA TODAY based in Nashville. You can reach him at ndiller@usatoday.com.



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Alaska lawmakers push Trump administration to waive $100k visa fee for international teachers

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Alaska lawmakers push Trump administration to waive 0k visa fee for international teachers


Some Alaska school districts say they can’t afford to hire and retain international teachers after the Trump administration hiked fees for highly skilled worker visas.  Alaska school districts have increasingly hired international teachers through the H-1B program amid an ongoing teacher shortage. Until last September, the annual fee for such visas was $5,000 per person. […]



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