Colorado has long relied on people relocating to the state to fuel its economy, and while natives may complain about more crowded roads and the lack of housing, those transplants both fill and generate jobs, making them the state’s most important import.

Since the pandemic, there has been a sharp drop in people moving to Colorado from other states minus those leaving, known as net domestic migration, and a sharp rise in international migration, or people coming to Colorado from another country, according to numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau’s “vintage estimates,” which fill the gap between the big counts that happen every 10 years.

International flows, which rose rapidly during the Biden administration, are likely to fall fast under the second Trump administration, and the rate of natural increase, or births minus deaths, is expected to head lower in the years ahead before going negative around 2050. That leaves domestic migration as key to the state’s economic fortunes, but two Census counts conflict with each other on what is happening there.

Using the latest numbers from the U.S. Census American Community Survey (ACS), StorageCafe, a storage facility search engine owned by Yardi Systems, reported that nearly 31,000 more people moved to Colorado than moved to other states in 2023, enough to rank eighth for domestic migration. Texas, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Indiana were the states ahead of Colorado on that measure.

“Colorado is reclaiming its popularity after a three-year slump that led to negative migration in 2022. In 2023, state-to-state migration brought a net gain of 31,000 residents, signaling a return to pre-pandemic trends– though still slightly below peak years,” StorageCafe said in its report.

The analysis found that Colorado did especially well in its popularity contest with Texas, California, Florida and Arizona. And despite having higher home prices, it did well in drawing young workers, who employers will follow, bringing with them the additional jobs that draw additional people.

“Colorado remains one of the most expensive housing markets in the U.S., ranking sixth for highest home prices. Notably, it’s the only state among the top 10 for net migration where newcomers from the primary originating state end up paying more for housing than they did before,” said Bianca Barsan, a communications specialist with StorageCafe.

Colorado ranked sixth when it came to attracting Gen Z, or the age group now graduating college and entering the workforce, and fourth among millennials, who still dominate the ranks of those coming to the state as they did last decade. Surprisingly, Colorado even ranked eighth among the Silent Generation, those born before the end of World War II, although there were far fewer of them moving.

Media outlets and other groups covered the report as support that Colorado remains an attractive destination for those on the move, especially among young adults, and a population rebound is underway after a temporary slump seen during the pandemic.

But state demographer Kate Watkins sounds a note of caution, based on the most recent vintage estimates, which paint a less robust picture than the ACS.

“The ACS data are drawn from a survey of the population. Further, the ACS is generally not designed to produce count estimates, but instead to provide characteristics of populations,” Watkins said.

Put another way, the ACS can provide details on the age ranges of people relocating here, how educated they are, and whether they rented or bought a home after arriving. But when it comes to giving a headcount, it isn’t as precise as vintage estimates, which use other government sources like IRS, Medicare and Social Security records.

The latest vintage numbers, released in December and through July 1, put Colorado’s net domestic migration at 5,422 and international migration at 33,227. Using the 2023 count, domestic migration was 6,341 and international migration was 27,177.

Net domestic migration in Colorado has remained fairly flat this decade per vintage estimates, moving from a high of 7,365 in 2020 to a low of 5,422 in 2024. Domestic migration has become a smaller, not higher, share of overall migration, and is now making the smallest contribution to Colorado’s overall population growth since 2010, when people hunkered down because of the Great Recession, according to a report from the Common Sense Institute, a business-funded think tank.

Colorado ranked 17th last year for domestic migration using the vintage estimates, which shouldn’t be taken for granted given that nearly half of all states, led by California and New York, lost more residents to other states than they gained. Since April 1, 2020, Colorado has gained a net 31,172 people from other states per Census vintage estimates, below what it would attract during single years last decade. That softening is being driven by an increase in residents leaving the state.

“In line with the national trend, international migration fueled Colorado’s population growth in 2024. Colorado gained over 33,000 people this year through net international migration alone, accounting for more than half of its population growth,” Zoey Zhang, a research analyst with the Common Sense Institute, in her analysis of the 2024 Census numbers.

Colorado’s net international migration was at 240 in 2020, reflecting pandemic restrictions as well as stricter policies under the first Trump administration. Under the Biden administration, Colorado’s net international migration went from 3,911 in 2021, to 18,507 in 2022, 27,177 in 2023 and 33,227 in 2024, per the vintage estimates.

Those are likely undercounts given the challenges the Census Bureau faces in tracking what the Pew Research Center describes as “unauthorized” immigrants. That category is broader than “illegal” and includes people awaiting a decision on their asylum requests, those who have entered as “parolees” from countries like Ukraine, Cuba, Nicaragua, Haiti and Venezuela, victims of human trafficking and those with temporary protected status.

The country had about 2 million more people than expected in 2023 and the majority are likely unauthorized immigrants, according to Pew.

International migration counts are expected to decrease sharply as Trump carries through on campaign promises to close the southern border, deport those in the country illegally and limit asylum applications, which people apprehended at the border frequently sought in recent years.

Legal immigration isn’t being curtailed yet, but some programs like the H-1B visa used to recruit tech and professional workers are coming under increased scrutiny. A decrease in legal immigration could pose problems for the state’s labor markets, said Richard Wobbekind, an associate dean and senior economist at the Leeds School of Business at the University of Colorado Boulder.

“The demographic changes of slower net domestic in-migration and baby boomer retirements will tighten the labor market. I am not sure where the labor supply offset will come from,” Wobbekind said in an email.

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