World
Very cold weather is coming. US about to get 10th and chilliest polar vortex this winter
The coldest burst of Arctic air this season is coming to put an icy exclamation point on America’s winter of repeated polar vortex invasions, meteorologists warn. And it will stay frozen there all next week.
Different weather forces in the Arctic are combining to push the chilly air that usually stays near the North Pole not just into the United States, but also Europe, several meteorologists tell The Associated Press.
This will be the 10th time this winter that the polar vortex — which keeps the coldest of Arctic air penned in at the top of the world — stretches like a rubber band to send some of that big chill south, said Judah Cohen, seasonal forecast director at the private firm Atmospheric and Environmental Research. In a normal winter, it happens maybe two or three times.
Ray King fishes for trout during a steady snowfall at the lake in O’Fallon Park in St. Louis, Mo., Feb. 12, 2025. (Robert Cohen/St. Louis Post-Dispatch via AP, File)
This winter, with record snow in New Orleans and drought and destructive wildfires in Southern California, has not been normal.
The latest projected cold outbreak should first hit the northern Rockies and northern Plains Saturday and then stick around all next week. The cold will likely concentrate east of the Rockies with only the far American west and central and southern Florida exempted, meteorologists said.
On Tuesday, expect the Lower 48 states to have an average low of 16.6 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 8.6 Celsius), and then plunge to 14 degrees (minus 10 Celsius) on Wednesday, calculated private meteorologist Ryan Maue, a former National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration chief scientist.
The Peace Monument, also known as the Naval Monument or Civil War Sailors Monument, is covered with snow outside the Capitol, Feb. 12, 2025, after a snowstorm in Washington. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin, Flie)
Meteorologists expect strong winds to make the cold feel even worse. Every U.S. state but Hawaii, California and Florida have some or all parts forecast to have a good chance of windchills of 20 degrees or below sometime next week, the National Weather Service predicted.
Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri and Iowa will have “probably the most impressive” cold, with temperatures as much as 35 degrees (19 degrees Celsius) below what’s normal for this time of year, said Zack Taylor, a meteorologist at the weather service’s Weather Prediction Center. NOAA weather models predict Wednesday lows below zero in Oklahoma, Colorado, Nebraska, Missouri, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan.
Some storms — with flooding, heavy snow or even a nor’easter — could hit during next week’s prolonged cold outbreak, but details on those aren’t certain yet, Taylor said.
“Everything, all the stars align, all the wind directions in the atmosphere are dragging the cold polar air out of the Canadian Arctic,” Maue said. “It’s the depths of winter. Everything signals extreme biting, winter cold. Obviously this isn’t the first polar vortex episode of the winter, but it looks to be the most severe.”
Natalie Burke pulls some kids on a sled during a snowfall, Feb. 12, 2025, in Shorewood, Wis. (AP Photo/Morry Gash, File)
A stretched polar vortex like this one happens lower in the atmosphere and is different than when the polar vortex has sudden warming, weakens and all the cold air escapes south and out of the poles, Cohen said. During stretching events, the polar vortex remains in place and strong, but it also just pulls and bends. Stretch outbreaks are usually slightly milder than the big polar escape events and often hit the United States, not Europe.
Meteorologists are going to want to study why this stretching is happening so often this year, but it could just be natural randomness, said Laura Ciasto, a meteorologist at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center who specializes in the polar vortex.
“What we’re observing right now is interesting, but not unprecedented,” said Martin Stendel, a scientist at the National Center for Climate Research in Denmark.
Another factor adding to the polar vortex stretching is a big blob of high pressure in the upper atmosphere over Greenland. It’s moving west and will push the jet stream — the river of air that moves weather systems such as storms — into a pattern that causes polar air to plunge and stay there, Cohen said.
Human-caused climate change may be making the jet stream wavier and more likely to be stuck in that wavy pattern, one of the factors involved, Stendel said.
There haven’t been many winters like this in the past to help meteorologists forecast what will happen next and when the cold will finally go away, Maue said.
Despite the unusually cold winter across the U.S., the world remains in an overall warming pattern. Earth’s average overall temperature set yet another monthly heat record in January. It was the 18th month of the last 19 that the world hit or passed the internationally agreed upon warming limit of 1.5 C (2.7 F) above pre-industrial times.
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Read more of AP’s climate coverage at http://www.apnews.com/climate-and-environment
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The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.
Israeli minister Gideon Sa’ar said Europe “does not have unified position” on what role it should play in Iran as European ministers sought to establish a joint approach Sunday.
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As Israel and the United States conducted a joint military strike on Iran, leading to the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Europe was kept on the sidelines.
EU member states did not participate in the operation and, in some cases, they were not informed prior as it is customary among strategic allies.
Asked whether Israel sought to keep Europe on the margins, Sa’ar said internal divisions within EU member states had kept them out of critical exchanges of operational details, unlike the United States, which the minister described as his country’s greatest ally.
“In Europe, you have all kinds of approaches,” he told Euronews. “You have countries like the Czech Republic which is strongly supporting this operation and then you have Spain, which is standing with all the tyrants of the world.”
On Saturday, Spanish prime minister Pedro Sánchez was among the most critical voices in Europe, suggesting the US-Israeli strikes on Iran risk plunging the region into total war.
“We reject the unilateral military action of the United States and Israel, which represents an escalation and contributes to a more uncertain and hostile international order,” Sánchez said Saturday. The Spanish PM reiterated that message on Sunday.
“We urge for de-escalation and call to respect international law in all conflicts,” Sánchez added. “You can be against a heinous regime, like the Iranian regime, while also rejecting a military intervention that is unjustified, dangerous and outside of international law.”
Sa’aar said Israel considers the operation “fully justified” citing the right to self-defense from a regime that “has called for the destruction of Israel” and lashed at the Spanish prime minister for sending an “anti-Israeli, anti-American message.”
“Read the statement, they are standing with Iran!” he added.
When asked if any of his European counterparts had manifested an interest in joining the military operation or provide support on the ground, Sa’ar said he held multiple exchanges with European ministers over the weekend and suggested that “if others want to join, they will know have to convey the message.”
On Sunday, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen appeared to back regime change in Iran in line with Israel and the US, saying that the “risk of further escalation is real. This is why a credible transition in Iran is urgently needed” in comments on Sunday.
Sa’ar told Euronews said the strategic strikes and the elimination of Khamenei alongside top regime commanders could “create the conditions to weaken the regime enough to allow the Iranians to take their future into their own hands”.
“The future leadership of Iran should be determined by the Iranian people through free elections. Our only requirement is that whoever comes to power in Iran must not pursue the destruction of Israel,” he said.
Watch the full interview on Euronews from 8pm CET
new video loaded: ‘We Are Orphans’: Shiite Muslims Protest the Killing of Khamenei
By Nader Ibrahim and Malachy Browne
March 1, 2026
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Three U.S. service members were killed and five others were seriously wounded as part of Operation Epic Fury, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said Sunday morning.
In addition, several others sustained minor shrapnel injuries and concussions and are in the process of being returned to duty, CENTCOM announced.
“The situation is fluid, so out of respect for the families, we will withhold additional information, including the identities of our fallen warriors, until 24 hours after next of kin have been notified,” CENTCOM said.
Smoke rises over the city center after an Israeli army launches 2nd wave of airstrikes on Iran on Saturday. (Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu via Getty Images)
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