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Buckeyetology: Ohio State Entrenched on NCAA Tournament Bubble As Season Heats Up
Buckeyetology is back thanks to the recent efforts of the 2024-25 Buckeyes.
Last year I ran this piece for exactly three weeks in January, the first edition on Jan. 9 when Ohio State was projected as a seven seed in the NCAA Tournament and the last on Jan. 25 when the Buckeyes fell outside the Big Dance picture after an all-to-familiar January collapse under Chris Holtmann. More losses followed and despite a late-season surge under then-interim head coach Jake Diebler, the Buckeyes settled for the NIT.
One year since that discontinuation, the series is suddenly worth resurrecting. Thoughts of a first-season tourney bid for the Diebler regime were mere pipe dreams 10 days ago, with the Buckeyes standing at 10-8 and preparing to play No. 11 Purdue on the road.
Then Ohio State went and beat the Boilermakers in Mackey Arena, the first time they had fallen there in nearly 700 days. That momentum carried over to a blowout win over Iowa on Tuesday, the two victories Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins for NCAA Tournament purposes.
Not only is there a chance for Ohio State to bounce back from a 1-4 start to January to close 4-4 at Penn State on Thursday, the Buckeyes are right in the thick of the NCAA Tournament conversation. Their conference standing for the Big Ten Tournament – no longer a guarantee as only 15 of the conference’s 18 teams make it starting this year – has improved in equal measure.
NCAA Tournament Outlook
Projections from a variety of the nation’s best bracketologists have Ohio State among the last four teams in the NCAA Tournament as things stand.
| Overall Record | 12-8 |
| Home | 8-4 |
| Road | 2-3 |
| NET Ranking | 29th |
| Q1 Record | 3-6 |
| Q2 Record | 2-2 |
| Strength of Schedule | 14th |
That’s true for ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, who places the Buckeyes in the first of his last four in slots ahead of Texas, North Carolina and UCF. Bracketmatrix.com has 85 different bracket projections aggregated and Ohio State makes the Big Dance in 71 of them. 59 of those have the Buckeyes as an 11-seed, the last seed line for at-large bids. One of the 14 brackets excluding the Buckeyes is CBS’ Jerry Palm, who has OSU as the first team out of the tourney.
A 12-8 record isn’t great on its surface, but the strength of the Buckeyes’ schedule boosts the value of that mark. Diebler had the fortitude to set up five non-conference matchups with power conference opponents, and though Ohio State went 2-3 against those teams, it picked up valuable Quadrant 1 wins against Texas and then-No. 4 Kentucky on neutral courts.
The depth of the Big Ten is also bolstering the Buckeyes’ schedule strength. Seven other schools in the conference are projected as being in the NCAA Tournament by the bracket matrix. Ohio State gets opportunities at two more Q1 wins in league play this week at Penn State and No. 18 Illinois.
Lastly, the Buckeyes’ NET ranking of 29th is the best among its competitors along the bubble, a reflection of its aforementioned schedule strength and its handful of quality wins. Every single Ohio State loss also falls into either Q1 or Q2, Indiana being the worst loss on its résumé with a NET ranking of 68th.
| RNK | TEAM | B1G RECORD | OVR RECORD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MICHIGAN STATE | 9-0 | 18-2 |
| 2 | PURDUE | 8-2 | 16-5 |
| 3 | MICHIGAN | 7-2 | 15-5 |
| 4 | WISCONSIN | 6-3 | 15-4 |
| 5 | MARYLAND | 6-4 | 16-5 |
| 5 | UCLA | 6-4 | 15-6 |
| 5 | ILLINOIS | 6-4 | 14-6 |
| 8 | OREGON | 5-4 | 16-4 |
| 9 | INDIANA | 5-5 | 14-7 |
| 10 | USC | 4-5 | 12-8 |
| 10 | OHIO STATE | 4-5 | 12-8 |
| 12 | IOWA | 4-6 | 13-8 |
| 13 | NORTHWESTERN | 3-6 | 12-8 |
| 13 | RUTGERS | 3-6 | 10-10 |
| 15 | PENN STATE | 3-7 | 13-8 |
| 15 | MINNESOTA | 3-7 | 11-10 |
| 17 | NEBRASKA | 2-7 | 12-8 |
| 18 | WASHINGTON | 1-8 | 10-10 |
Big Ten Outlook
With the Big Ten Tournament format shifting to 15 teams this year, the bottom three teams will be excluded in the conference while the top nine schools receive a first-round bye and the top four receive a double-bye to the tourney’s quarterfinals.
The Penn State game not only offers a chance for Ohio State to bring its January record back to .500, it can level out its mark in the Big Ten, too. A victory over the Nittany Lions would bring the Buckeyes back to 5-5 in conference play.
A win at Penn State would put valuable distance between Ohio State and the bottom three spots in the conference, which will be left out of the conference tournament. The Buckeyes’ current 4-5 record in the league has them 1.5 games ahead of that placement, with the Nittany Lions and Minnesota tied at 3-7 for third-to-last. Nebraska (2-7) and Washington (1-8) have worse conference marks.
With a strong close to the year, a first-round bye in the Big Ten Tournament and Ohio State’s first NCAA Tournament bid in three seasons are well within reach.
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Where does Ohio State basketball rank in latest March Madness bracketology?
The Ohio State men’s basketball team will host No. 8 Purdue on March 1 while fighting to keep its NCAA Tournament hopes intact.
The Buckeyes have three games left in Big Ten regular-season play and are 17-11 overall and 9-8 in the league. On Feb. 25, they lost 74-57 at Iowa, marking their second consecutive defeat and their first losing streak of the season. Afterward, the Buckeyes struggled to explain why they came apart when the Hawkeyes went on their first run of the game.
The Boilermakers 22-6 overall, 12-5 in the Big Ten and fresh off a 76-74 home loss to No. 13 Michigan State on Feb. 26.
As of Feb. 26, the Buckeyes were ranked No. 38 in the NET rankings used by the NCAA Tournament selection committee. They are also No. 46 in Wins Above Bubble, another category being utilized by the committee.
Purdue is No. 7 in the NET, making this a Quad 1 game for the Buckeyes. Ohio State is 1-10 in Quad 1.
Here is where Ohio State sits in the major NCAA Tournament projections as it prepares to host the Boilermakers at the Jerome Schottenstein Center:
Ohio State basketball standing in latest bracketology
In a bracket update published Feb. 18, USA Today projects the Buckeyes to make the NCAA Tournament and play in the First Four in Dayton. Ohio State is included as a No. 11 seed, facing fellow No. 11 seed Missouri. The winner of that game would head to Portland to face No. 6 seed Louisville.
Two weeks ago, Ohio State was a No. 10 seed and projected to avoid the First Four in Dayton. Now the Buckeyes are projected second on the list of the final four teams to make the tournament.
Ten Big Ten teams are included in the field, the second-most for any conference after the SEC (11).
In a Feb. 24 update, one day before the Buckeyes lost at Iowa, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi had Ohio State as the first team not to make the tournament. After the loss, he dropped them to the third team in the first four out.
ESPN’s Bubble Watch noted that the loss now has Ohio State’s odds of making the tournament at about 50%.
CBS has the Buckeyes fourth on its list of the first four out.
The website BracketMatrix.com, which aggregates 118 different bracket projections, has Ohio State as a potential No. 11 seed. The Buckeyes appear in 41 brackets, many of which had not been updated after the Iowa game.
Analytics site BartTorvik.com projects Ohio State as a No. 10 seed and gives the Buckeyes a 52.1% chance to make the tournament as of Feb. 27.
Ohio State men’s basketball beat writer Adam Jardy can be reached at ajardy@dispatch.com, on Bluesky at @cdadamjardy.bsky.social or on Twitter at @AdamJardy.
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Ohio State stud Carnell Tate might be the ideal ‘game-changer’ that Giants need
INDIANAPOLIS — There are so many questions an NFL team can pose to a top prospect and so many of them have to do with how he will handle the step up to the next level.
And how will he deal with waiting his turn?
These questions do not really apply to Carnell Tate.
Not after the gauntlet he had to pass through in college, trying to find his way and making incremental rises on a depth chart overflowing with talent at his position.
“The competition there, we’re all pushing to be the best receiver on the field that day and that practice,’’ Tate said Friday morning at the NFL Scouting Combine, “and typically, when you’re the best receiver at Ohio State, you’re the best receiver in the country.’’
True, that.
Tate figures to be in play for the Giants with the No. 5 pick in the NFL Draft.
He is widely considered the top receiver in this class — there are certainly Jordyn Tyson supporters out there — and where the Giants prioritize aiding their offense with bolstering their defense will go a long way in determining if they select a wide receiver with their top pick for the second time in three years.
Where they are situated, one or both Ohio State studs, safety Caleb Downs or linebacker Sonny Styles, should be on the board — another Ohio State defender, edge rusher Arvell Reese, could go to the Jets at No. 2.
The Giants unquestionably need another prime target for Jaxson Dart but, when healthy, they already have a No. 1 receiver in Malik Nabers, who was the No. 6 overall pick in 2024.
Investing so much draft equity in another one might not be the most balanced way to build the team in John Harbaugh’s first year as the head coach.
Or, it might be just the ticket to launch the offense.
“You’re always going to want to add more explosiveness to your offense, guys that score touchdowns, wherever that comes from: running back, receiver, tight ends, whatever it may be,’’ general manager Joe Schoen said. “That will be something we’ll look for.’’
There should not be much, or any, concern that Tate will not be a supportive and obliging running mate for Nabers, who made it into only four games last season before a devastating knee injury — he tore his right ACL and meniscus — left Dart without his only lethal weapon.
Tate is not one of those youngsters accustomed to being the top guy during his college experience.
Tate arrived as a five-star recruit in 2023 but how the heck was he supposed to break into the starting lineup with Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka — both future first round picks — ahead of him?
In 2024, Tate was overshadowed by freshman phenom Jeremiah Smith.
Tate had to wait for his opportunities and while he did, he concentrated on becoming a better all-around player, developing his ability as a blocker on the perimeter.
In three seasons, Tate totaled 121 receptions for 1,872 yards.
He notched nine of his 14 touchdowns during the 2025 season.
Tate is often likened to Chris Olave, another former Buckeyes wideout.
Olave was a 2022 first-round pick of the Saints and has surpassed 1,000 receiving yards in three of his four NFL seasons.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) and Garrett Wilson (Jets) are also former Ohio State receivers tearing it up in the NFL.
“It means a lot to me and it’s also a lot on your shoulders,’’ Tate said of the legacy. “Now you got to be the next one to come out there and put on for the school and carry the Receiver U.’’
Tate lining up on one side and Nabers — who is expected to be fully recovered in the spring or by training camp — lining up on the other side would be quite a combination for Dart.
“It would be great,’’ said Tate, who this week had a formal meeting with the Giants. “It would be a great opportunity, especially playing in New York. Big showcase. I’d love to go out there and play in New York.’’
Wan’Dale Robinson, mostly a slot receiver, is an impending free agent.
If he does not return, it would drain the passing game of the 92 receptions for 1,014 yards he contributed in 2025.
Veteran Darius Slayton is coming off a poor seventh year with the Giants.
At 6-foot-3, Tate has ideal height and he is lean at 195 pounds.
He will run the 40-yard dash in Indy but otherwise wait for his Pro Day to work out for NFL executives, coaches and scouts.
Without sounding boastful, Tate does not lack confidence.
“I think my game brings it all to the table,’’ he said. “I got the contested catch, I got the route-running and I also bring it in the run game, a lot of receivers don’t do that. I’m able to impact the game with or without the ball in my hands.
“If you want a game-changer, you got one right here.’’
The best wide receiver in this draft class?
“Me, no question,’’ Tate said.
“Whatever you need to do, I got it.’’
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