Science
The FDA knew long ago that red dye No. 3 causes cancer. Why did it take so long to ban it?
The Food and Drug Administration said Wednesday that the much-maligned red dye No. 3 will be banned in the United States because it has been shown to cause cancer in animals.
The decision, lauded by consumer advocacy groups, comes a full 25 years after scientists at the agency determined that rats fed large amounts of the artificial color additive were much more likely to develop malignant thyroid tumors than rats who weren’t given the food coloring. They also had an increased incidence of benign tumors and growths that can be precursors to cancer.
Those findings prompted the FDA to declare in 1990 that red dye No. 3 could not be used in cosmetics or drugs applied to the skin. The reason for the decision was clear: A federal law known as the Delaney clause says no color additive can be considered safe if it has been shown to cause cancer in animals or people.
Yet the dye remained a legal food coloring. It’s in the bright red cherries that dress up a bowl of Del Monte’s fruit cocktail. It makes Nesquik’s strawberry milk a pleasing shade of pink. It also colors beef jerky, fruit rolls, candy, ice cream and scores of other processed products.
Now food makers will have two years to reformulate their products without red dye No. 3. Drug companies have three years to remove it from their medicines.
The FDA does not seem to be bothered by the fact that this cancer-causing chemical will linger in the food supply. The agency’s view is that the biological process through which the dye causes cancer in rats doesn’t occur in people.
“We don’t believe there is a risk to humans,” Jim Jones, the FDA’s deputy commissioner for human foods, told members of Congress last month.
In announcing the ban, the agency added that people consume red dye No. 3 at levels far lower than those shown to cause cancer in two studies of rats. A host of other studies in both animals and humans did not show the dye to be cancerous.
Nonetheless, regulators revoked authorization of red dye No. 3 to satisfy a petition demanding that the Delaney clause be enforced.
Starburst-flavored Fruit by the Foot, which contains red dye No. 3. (Christina House / Los Angeles Times)
“Regardless of the truth behind their argument, it doesn’t matter,” said Jensen N. Jose, regulatory counsel for food chemical safety at the Center for Science in the Public Interest, which spearheaded the effort. “Once it’s established that it causes cancer, FDA must prohibit the chemical by law.”
This wasn’t the first case of the FDA banning a food additive it considers safe to comply with the Delaney clause. The situation shows why the federal law is long overdue for a refresh, food safety experts say.
“A lot of people think we need to reform this,” said Diana Winters, deputy director of the Resnick Center for Food Law and Policy at UCLA Law. “It does lead to some absurd results.”
The Delaney clause is part of a 1958 federal law that expanded the FDA’s regulatory authority over newfangled food additives developed during World War II that were making their way into consumer products, Winters said.
Back then, members of Congress were worried about the cancer risks posed by all sorts of man-made compounds. Even small amounts seemed capable of triggering cancerous growths if people encountered them over and over again.
Arthur Flemming, who served as President Eisenhower’s Cabinet secretary for health and welfare, told Congress at the time there was no way for FDA regulators to know whether any exposure level was low enough to be truly safe. Considering the many cancer risks lurking in the environment, he said, the government should “do everything possible to put persons in a position where they will not unnecessarily be adding residues of carcinogens to their diet.”
Signature Select rainbow cups, which contain red dye No. 3.
(Christina House / Los Angeles Times)
The issue was personal for Rep. James Delaney, a Democrat from New York City whose wife was undergoing cancer treatment at the time. He made sure the new law included a zero-tolerance provision for cancer-causing substances, though it said nothing about additives that might cause other kinds of health problems.
“No additive shall be deemed to be safe if it is found to induce cancer when ingested by man or animal, or if it is found, after tests which are appropriate for the evaluation of the safety of food additives, to induce cancer in man or animal,” the Delaney clause states. A 1960 amendment governing color additives extended the rule to dyes.
As the years went by, advances in toxicology allowed scientists to expand the list of known cancerous compounds, and to identify them in ever-smaller amounts. Regulators were no longer as clueless as they’d been in Flemming’s day.
In 1986, the FDA tried to take that progress into account as it evaluated the safety of two color additives — orange dye No. 17 and red dye No. 19 — for use in lipsticks, nail polishes, face powders and other cosmetics. The agency acknowledged that both dyes were capable of inducing cancer in laboratory animals. But it argued that the regulatory decision should be guided not by a literal interpretation of an aging law but by the real-world risks to people.
When those color additives were used as intended, those risks were vanishingly small: A panel of scientists from the U.S. Public Health Service determined the lifetime cancer risk posed by the red dye was 1 in 9 million at worst; for the orange dye, it was 1 in 19 billion. In both cases, the possibility of developing cancer was “so trivial as to be effectively no risk,” the panel concluded.
A federal appeals court agreed that the dyes seemed to be safe. In fact, the risks they posed were millions of times lower than the risks of smoking, the judges wrote.
Moreover, the judges noted, forbidding the use of chemicals that carry a minute risk of cancer might prompt manufacturers to use compounds that are more toxic, albeit in noncancerous ways. Substitutions like these would be “a clear loss for safety,” they wrote.
But none of that matters, the court ruled: If a dye or any other chemical is found to cause cancer in animals, the FDA’s only option under the Delaney clause was to forbid its use.
Nestle Nesquik strawberry milk, containing red dye No. 3. (Christina House / Los Angeles Times)
Regulators found themselves in a more absurd situation in 2018 when they were asked to revoke their authorization of a flavoring additive called myrcene.
When the synthetic compound was force-fed to rats at doses of 1 gram per kilogram of body weight for two years, the animals developed kidney cancer and other forms of renal disease. Female mice fed under the same conditions developed liver cancer as well, the FDA said.
But the amount of artificial myrcene consumed by a typical American is 813,000 times lower — around 1.23 micrograms per kilogram of body weight, the agency said.
Moreover, myrcene is a natural component of mangoes, citrus juices, cardamom, and herbs including basil, parsley and wild thyme. The amount of natural myrcene in the food supply is about 16,5000 times greater than its synthetic counterpart, the agency added.
Still, the FDA declared the additive unsafe “as a matter of law” while assuring the public that no one’s health was actually at risk when synthetic myrcene was on the market. It blamed the Delaney clause for the confusion.
In 2020, a group of food industry scientists said the problem goes well beyond confusion. Revoking approval for artificial myrcene “has contributed to the ongoing erosion of trust in regulatory agencies,” they argued in the journal Regulatory Toxicology and Pharmacology. Such decisions promote an irrational fear of chemicals and cause consumers to lose faith in the safety of the U.S. food supply, they wrote.
Red dye No. 3 was approved for use in U.S. food in 1907, when it was known as erythrosine. It won permanent listing as an authorized color additive for foods, supplements and ingested drugs under the name FD&C Red No. 3 in 1969.
Soon after that decision, an industry group called the Toilet Goods Assn. petitioned the FDA to upgrade the dye’s listing for cosmetics and topical drugs from provisional to permanent. The request triggered additional tests in the 1970s and ‘80s, including two long-term feeding studies in rats.
Beginning before birth and for their entire lives, the animals were put on diets that included the red dye at concentrations of 0.1%, 0.5%, 1% or 4%. Compared to male rats that didn’t consume any dye, male rats that ate the most had a significantly higher incidence of tumors — both malignant and benign — as well as abnormal cell growth in the thyroid. No other group had an increased incidence large enough to be considered statistically significant. Among female rats, the incidence of benign tumors was elevated for those on the 1% diet, though not for rats on the 4% diet, as would be expected if the dye were the cause of cancer in these animals.
After consulting with scientists from the National Toxicology Program and the U.S. Public Health Service, the FDA concluded that red dye No. 3 could cause cancer in animals. In 1990, the agency denied the industry group’s request for permanent listing.
That decision applied only to cosmetics and topical drugs, and had no immediate bearing on food products sold in the U.S. At that point, the dye had been permanently listed as an approved food additive for decades. Nothing in those rat studies indicated to the agency that its designation needed to change.
Over the years, the dye has been tested in mice, rats, gerbils, pigs, beagles and humans. An extensive review conducted by the World Health Organization and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations found “no concerns” about the dye’s ability to trigger cancer, impair fertility or cause developmental problems in people of all ages when consumed in realistic doses.
“Claims that the use of FD&C Red No. 3 in food and in ingested drugs puts people at risk are not supported by the available scientific information,” the agency said Wednesday.
Frosted sugar cookies from Favorite Day Bakery, containing red dye No. 3.
(Christina House / Los Angeles Times)
Pitting the Delaney clause’s strict legal requirements against advances in cancer research has been a longstanding challenge for the agency, officials said.
“When we ban something, it will go to court,” Dr. Robert Califf, the FDA’s commissioner, told the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions committee last month. “And if we don’t have the scientific evidence that will stand up in court, we will lose in court.”
The elaborate regulatory process for removing an additive from the food supply can certainly result in litigation, said Emily Broad Leib, director of the Center for Health Law and Policy Innovation at Harvard Law School.
“The Delaney clause probably works a lot better at the outset if you’re trying to add a new substance to food,” she said. “Once things are in food, it takes a really long time to remove it.”
The way some people see it, the problem with the Delaney clause isn’t that it forces the FDA to ban food additives that don’t pose a true cancer threat. It’s that the law doesn’t address all the other ways the foods we eat can be hazardous to our health.
“There’s a lot of things in foods naturally that cause cancer, and the Delaney clause doesn’t cover that,” said Alyson Mitchell, a food scientist at UC Davis. “It also does not speak to anything regarding other illnesses, whether it’s kidney dysfunction or ADHD or mental health issues or endocrine imbalances.”
The General Accounting Office (now known as the U.S. Government Accountability Office) raised this issue back in 1981, when it advised Congress to update the Delaney clause to reflect the latest scientific and medical knowledge. It would make sense for the law to apply “ equally to cancer-causing and non-cancer-causing substances,” the GAO said.
Other items that contain red dye No. 3: Del Monte fruit cocktail, Signature Select Jordan almonds, Betty Crocker Suddenly! pasta salad, and Jack Links beef stick and cheese. (Christina House / Los Angeles Times)
California has banned all uses of red dye No. 3 in the Golden State, and prohibited the use of six other dyes in foods served or sold in schools. Scientists who examined the dyes for the California Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment determined that “the behavioral factors are more of a concern” than the cancer risk, said Asa Bradman, an expert on exposure assessment and epidemiology at UC Merced and co-author of the comprehensive state report.
The FDA has studied the behavioral risks of color additives and hasn’t found “a clear and causal link,” an FDA spokesperson told The Times. Studies suggest some children with behavioral challenges like ADHD appear to be sensitive to food dyes, and that genetic variants affecting the body’s ability to break down histamine are a likely cause. In the FDA’s view, that doesn’t mean the dyes themselves are “neurotoxic,” the spokesperson said.
If there was convincing evidence that an artificial dye failed to meet FDA’s safety standards, the agency would take action whether the health threats were covered by the Delaney clause or not, the spokesperson added.
Mitchell, who worked on the California report with Bradman, said that because manufacturers have been phasing out red dye No. 3 for more than a decade, it’s not a significant concern for her. She’s more worried about the hyperactivity risk posed by red dye No. 40 because it’s ubiquitous in processed foods, especially those consumed by children.
“I’m grateful for the Delaney clause because I do think it’s been very helpful in trying to protect our food,” Mitchell said. “But it doesn’t go far enough. So much of this needs to be revisited.”
Science
A retired teacher found some seahorses off Long Beach. Then he built a secret world for them
Rog Hanson emerges from the coastal waters, pulls a diving regulator out of his mouth and pushes a scuba mask down around his neck.
“Did you see her?” he says. “Did you see Bathsheba?”
On this quiet Wednesday morning, a paddle boarder glides silently through the surf off Long Beach. Two stick-legged whimbrels plunge their long curved beaks into the sand, hunting for crabs.
Classic stories from the Los Angeles Times’ 143-year archive
But Hanson, 68, is enchanted by what lies hidden beneath the water. Today he took a visitor on a tour of the secret world he built from palm fronds and pine branches at the bottom of the bay: his very own seahorse city.
The visitor confirms that she did see Bathsheba, an 11-inch-long orange Pacific seahorse, and a grin spreads across Hanson’s broad face.
“Isn’t she beautiful?” he says. “She’s our supermodel.”
If you get Hanson talking about his seahorses, he’ll tell you exactly how many times he’s seen them (997), who is dating whom, and describe their personalities with intimate familiarity. Bathsheba is stoic, Daphne a runner. Deep Blue is chill.
He will also tell you that getting to know these strange, almost mythical beings has profoundly affected his life.
“I swear, it has made me a better human being,” he says. “On land I’m very C-minus, but underwater, I’m Mensa.”
Hanson is a retired schoolteacher, not a scientist, but experts say he probably has spent more time with Pacific seahorses, also known as Hippocampus ingens, than anyone on Earth.
“To my knowledge, he is the only person tracking ingens directly,” says Amanda Vincent, a professor at the University of British Columbia and director of the marine conservation group Project Seahorse. “Many people love seahorses, but Roger’s absorption with them is definitely distinctive. There’s a degree of warm obsession there, perhaps.”
Rog Hanson keeps watch over a small colony of Pacific seahorses.
(Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times)
Over the last three years, Hanson has made the two-hour trek from his home in Moreno Valley to the industrial shoreline of Long Beach to visit his “kids” about every five days. To avoid traffic, he often leaves at 2 a.m. and then sleeps in his car when he arrives.
He keeps three tanks of air and his scuba gear in the trunk of his 2009 Kia Rio. A toothbrush and a pair of pink leopard print reading glasses rest on the dash.
Hanson makes careful notes after all his dives in a colorful handmade log book he stores in a three-ring binder. On this Wednesday he dutifully records the water temperature (62 degrees), the length of the dive (58 minutes), the greatest depth (15 feet) and visibility (3 feet), as well as the precise location of each seahorse. His notes also include phase of the moon, the tidal currents and the strength of the UV rays.
“Scientists will tell you that sunlight is an important statistic to keep down,” he says.
He has given each of his four seahorses a unique logo that he draws with markers in his log book. Bathsheba’s is a purple star outlined in red, Daphne’s is a brown striped star in a yellow circle.
Rog Hanson makes careful notes after all his dives. He has given each of his four seahorses a unique logo.
(Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times)
He’s learned that the seahorses don’t like it when he hovers nearby for too long. Now he limits his interactions with them to 15 to 30 seconds at a time.
“At first I bugged them too much,” he says. “I was the paparazzi swimming around.”
Hanson traces the origins of his seahorse story back nearly two decades to the early morning of Dec. 30, 2000.
He was diving solo off Shaw’s Cove in Laguna Beach when a slow-moving giant emerged from the abyss. It was a gray whale whose 40-foot frame cast Hanson in shadow.
The whale could have killed him with a flick of its tail, Hanson says, but he felt no fear. The two made eye contact and, as Hanson tells it, he felt the whale’s gaze peering directly into his soul.
It was all over in 10 seconds, but Hanson was altered. He had always wanted to live at the beach, but after this encounter, he vowed to make it happen. It took years —15, in fact — but he finally got a job as a special education teacher in the Long Beach public school system. He bought a van and parked it on Ocean Boulevard. He lived at the beach and dived every day for 3½ months before moving to Moreno Valley.
To amuse himself while he lived at the beach, he built an underwater city he called Littleville out of discarded toys he found at the bottom of the bay.
Hanson saw his first seahorse in January 2016 while checking on Littleville. It was bright orange, just 4.5 inches long, and Hanson, who had logged over a thousand dives in the area, knew it didn’t belong there.
Daphne is one of the seahorses that Rog Hanson is studying in Alamitos Bay.
(Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times)
The range of the Pacific seahorse is generally thought to extend from Peru to as far north as San Diego. This seahorse ended up about 100 miles north of that.
Scientists said the seahorse and others that joined her had probably ridden an unusual pulse of warm water up the coast, along with other animals generally found in southern waters.
“We were getting a lot of weird sightings in the fall of 2015,” says Sandy Trautwein, vice president of husbandry at the Aquarium of the Pacific. “There was a yellow-bellied sea snake, bluefin tuna, marlin, whale sharks — a lot of animals associated with warm water.”
Most of these animals eventually left after ocean temperatures returned to normal, but Hanson’s seahorses stayed.
That may be because Hanson had built them a home.
It happened like this: In June 2016 he watched in horror as more than 100 high school football players splashed in the shallow waters, right where his seahorses usually hung out.
“I thought, I gotta do something, I gotta do something,” he says.
“On land I’m very C-minus, but underwater, I’m Mensa.”
— Rog Hanson
Then he remembered that, back in the Midwest where he grew up, he used to help the city park service make “fish cribs.” In early spring they would use brush and twigs to build what looked like a miniature log cabin with no roof on an ice-covered lake. When the ice melted, the cribs would fall to the bottom, creating a habitat for fish and other animals.
“So I said to myself, build them a city that’s deeper, where feet can’t get to it even at low tide,” Hanson says.
And he did.
By July 2016 two pairs of seahorses had moved into the new habitat. Daphne, the runner, was named after the nymph from Greek mythology who flees Apollo, Kenny’s name came from the proprietor of a local kayaking company. “Bathsheba” was inspired by a Bible story, and her mate, Deep Blue, named after a dive shop that has helped sponsor Hanson’s work since he launched his seahorse study.
He’s seen Kenny’s and Deep Blue’s bellies swell with pregnancy and noted how their partners check in on them daily, frequently standing sentinel nearby. He’s visited the fish at odd hours to see how their behavior changes from morning to night. And he mourned when Kenny disappeared in January. He still hasn’t come back. (A new member, CD Street, arrived June 29.)
“It feels like I’m reading a book, the book of their life, and I can’t put it down,” he says.
He’s also reached out to seahorse scientists across the globe to compare notes. “I won’t say I know the most about seahorses in the world, but I know the people who do,” he says.
Amanda Vincent, the director of Project Seahorse, says that seahorses spark an emotional reaction in almost everyone.
Daphne is one of the seahorses that Rog Hanson is studying in Alamitos Bay. Hanson and Ashley Arnold keep watch over a small colony of Pacific seahorses.
(Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times)
“Remember those books with three flaps where you can mix the head of a giraffe with the body of a snake and the tail of a monkey? That’s what we’ve got here,” she says. “They appeal to the sense of fancy and wonder in us.”
When Mark Showalter, a planetary astronomer at the SETI Institute, recently discovered a moon orbiting Neptune, he named it Hippocamp in part because of his love of seahorses.
“I’ve seen them in the wild and they are marvelously strange and interesting,” he says. “It’s a fish, but it doesn’t look anything like a fish.”
Pacific seahorses are among the largest members of the seahorse family. Males can grow up to 14 inches long, while females generally top out at about 11. They come in a variety of colors, including orange, maroon, brown and yellow. They are talented camouflagers that can alter the color of their exoskeleton to blend into their environment.
“I won’t say I know the most about seahorses in the world, but I know the people who do.”
But perhaps their most distinguishing characteristic is that they are the only known species in the animal kingdom to exhibit a true male pregnancy. Females deposit up to 1,500 eggs in the male’s pouch. The males incubate the eggs, providing nutrition and oxygen for the growing embryos. When the larval seahorses are ready to be released, he goes into labor — scientists call it “jackknifing” — pushing his trunk toward his tail.
After three years of observation, Hanson has collected new evidence about seahorse mating practices. His research suggests that although most seahorses are monogamous, a female will mate with two males if there are no other female seahorses around.
He also found that males, who are in an almost constant state of pregnancy, tend to stick to an area about the size of a king-size mattress, while the females roam up to 150 feet from their home during a typical day.
Eventually, he may be able to help scientists answer another long-standing question: What is the lifespan of Pacific seahorses in the wild? Some researchers say about five years; others think it could be up to 12.
“It will be interesting to see what Roger finds out,” Vincent says.
In June 2017, about one year after Hanson began formally tracking the seahorses, he took on a partner: a young scuba instructor named Ashley Arnold.
Arnold, who has short red hair and a jocular vibe, is a former Army staff sergeant who served in Iraq and Afghanistan. She learned to dive as part of a program the Salt Lake City Veterans Affairs hospital offered to female veterans suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder and military sexual trauma. Arnold suffered from both. Diving became her salvation.
Dive instructor Ashley Arnold is a former Army staff sergeant who says that diving at least twice a week helps her deal with PTSD and MST.
(Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times)
“All the irritation on the surface disappears when you go under the water,” she says. “It’s like, ‘What was I concerned about?’ You forget about everything else. Nothing else matters.”
She used her GI Bill to pay for a scuba instructor course and to set up her own business. Now, she finds that if she dives at least twice a week and has a dog, she does not need to take medication.
“All the irritation on the surface disappears when you go under the water.”
— Ashley Arnold
“That’s a pretty big statement in my opinion,” she says.
Arnold and Hanson met in June 2016 on a dive trip to Catalina. Hanson mentioned his seahorses. Arnold was intrigued, but still lived in Salt Lake City.
One year later, Arnold moved to Huntington Beach and gave Hanson a call.
“I said, ‘Hey Roger, let’s chat. Any chance I could join you at the seahorses you talked about?’” she says. “And he decided I was acceptable.”
Now, Arnold and her boyfriend, Jake Fitzgerald, check in on the seahorses about once a week and help Roger rebuild the city he created for them.
Rog Hanson, 68, teamed up with dive instructor Ashley Arnold two years ago to keep watch over a small colony of Pacific seahorses.
(Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times)
“We call them our kids because we love them so much,” Arnold says.
Hanson and Arnold are very protective of their seahorse family. They tell visitors to remove GPS tags from their photos. They swear them to secrecy.
There is little chance anyone would find Hanson’s seahorses without a guide. Also, diving in these waters off Long Beach can be a challenge.
The water is shallow. It’s hard to get your buoyancy right. A misplaced flipper kick can stir up blinding sand and silt.
But if Hanson wants to show you his underwater world, nothing will stop him. He will hold you firmly by the hand and guide you down to the forest he built at the bottom of the bay.
Ashley Arnold, right, gets rinsed off with a hose by Rog Hanson after a dive Alamitos Bay.
(Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times)
He will use a plastic tent stake, jabbing it into the bottom to propel himself — and you holding on — across the ocean floor. When he spots a seahorse he will use the stake as a pointer. Through the murky water you strain to see. Then it appears.
Orange and rigid. Thin snout. Bony plates. Stripes down the torso. Totally still.
And if you’ve never seen a seahorse in the wild before, you will feel honored and awed, as if you’ve just seen a unicorn beneath the sea.
Science
California’s summer COVID wave shows signs of waning. What are the numbers in your community?
There are some encouraging signs that California’s summer COVID wave might be leveling off.
That’s not to say the seasonal spike is in the rearview mirror just yet, however. Coronavirus levels in California’s wastewater remain “very high,” according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, as they are in much of the country.
But while some COVID indicators are rising in the Golden State, others are starting to fall — a hint that the summer wave may soon start to decline.
Statewide, the rate at which coronavirus lab tests are coming back positive was 11.72% for the week that ended Sept. 6, the highest so far this season, and up from 10.8% the prior week. Still, viral levels in wastewater are significantly lower than during last summer’s peak.
The latest COVID hospital admission rate was 3.9 hospitalizations for every 100,000 residents. That’s a slight decline from 4.14 the prior week. Overall, COVID hospitalizations remain low statewide, particularly compared with earlier surges.
The number of newly admitted COVID hospital patients has declined slightly in Los Angeles County and Santa Clara County, but ticked up slightly up in Orange County. In San Francisco, some doctors believe the summer COVID wave is cresting.
“There are a few more people in the hospitals, but I think it’s less than last summer,” said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, a UC San Francisco infectious diseases expert. “I feel like we are at a plateau.”
Those who are being hospitalized tend to be older people who didn’t get immunized against COVID within the last year, Chin-Hong said, and some have a secondary infection known as superimposed bacterial pneumonia.
Los Angeles County
In L.A. County, there are hints that COVID activity is either peaking or starting to decline. Viral levels in local wastewater are still rising, but the test positivity rate is declining.
For the week that ended Sept. 6, 12.2% of wastewater samples tested for COVID in the county were positive, down from 15.9% the prior week.
“Many indicators of COVID-19 activity in L.A. County declined in this week’s data,” the L.A. County Department of Public Health told The Times on Friday. “While it’s too early to know if we have passed the summer peak of COVID-19 activity this season, this suggests community transmission is slowing.”
Orange County
In Orange County, “we appear to be in the middle of a wave right now,” said Dr. Christopher Zimmerman, deputy medical director of the county’s Communicable Disease Control Division.
The test positivity rate has plateaued in recent weeks — it was 15.3% for the week that ended Sept. 6, up from 12.9% the prior week, but down from 17.9% the week before that.
COVID is still prompting people to seek urgent medical care, however. Countywide, 2.9% of emergency room visits were for COVID-like illness for the week that ended Sept. 6, the highest level this year, and up from 2.6% for the week that ended Aug. 30.
San Diego County
For the week that ended Sept. 6, 14.1% of coronavirus lab tests in San Diego County were positive for infection. That’s down from 15.5% the prior week, and 16.1% for the week that ended Aug. 23.
Ventura County
COVID is also still sending people to the emergency room in Ventura County. Countywide, 1.73% of ER patients for the week that ended Sept. 12 were there to seek treatment for COVID, up from 1.46% the prior week.
San Francisco
In San Francisco, the test positivity rate was 7.5% for the week that ended Sept. 7, down from 8.4% for the week that ended Aug. 31.
“COVID-19 activity in San Francisco remains elevated, but not as high as the previous summer’s peaks,” the local Department of Public Health said.
Silicon Valley
In Santa Clara County, the coronavirus remains at a “high” level in the sewershed of San José and Palo Alto.
Roughly 1.3% of ER visits for the week that ended Sunday were attributed to COVID in Santa Clara County, down from the prior week’s figure of 2%.
Science
Early adopters of ‘zone zero’ fared better in L.A. County fires, insurance-backed investigation finds
As the Eaton and Palisades fires rapidly jumped between tightly packed houses, the proactive steps some residents took to retrofit their homes with fire-resistant building materials and to clear flammable brush became a significant indicator of a home’s fate.
Early adopters who cleared vegetation and flammable materials within the first five feet of their houses’ walls — in line with draft rules for the state’s hotly debated “zone zero” regulations — fared better than those who didn’t, an on-the-ground investigation from the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety published Wednesday found.
Over a week in January, while the fires were still burning, the insurance team inspected more than 250 damaged, destroyed and unscathed homes in Altadena and Pacific Palisades.
On properties where the majority of zone zero land was covered in vegetation and flammable materials, the fires destroyed 27% of homes; On properties with less than a quarter of zone zero covered, only 9% were destroyed.
The Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety, an independent research nonprofit funded by the insurance industry, performed similar investigations for Colorado’s 2012 Waldo Canyon fire, Hawaii’s 2023 Lahaina fire and California’s Tubbs, Camp and Woolsey fires of 2017 and 2018.
While a handful of recent studies have found homes with sparse vegetation in zone zero were more likely to survive fires, skeptics say it does not yet amount to a scientific consensus.
Travis Longcore, senior associate director and an adjunct professor at the UCLA Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, cautioned that the insurance nonprofit’s results are only exploratory: The team did not analyze whether other factors, such as the age of the homes, were influencing their zone zero analysis, and how the nonprofit characterizes zone zero for its report, he noted, does not exactly mirror California’s draft regulations.
Meanwhile, Michael Gollner, an associate professor of mechanical engineering at UC Berkeley who studies how wildfires destroy and damage homes, noted that the nonprofit’s sample does not perfectly represent the entire burn areas, since the group focused specifically on damaged properties and were constrained by the active firefight.
Nonetheless, the nonprofit’s findings help tie together growing evidence of zone zero’s effectiveness from tests in the lab — aimed at identifying the pathways fire can use to enter a home — with the real-world analyses of which measures protected homes in wildfires, Gollner said.
A recent study from Gollner looking at more than 47,000 structures in five major California fires (which did not include the Eaton and Palisades fires) found that of the properties that removed vegetation from zone zero, 37% survived, compared with 20% that did not.
Once a fire spills from the wildlands into an urban area, homes become the primary fuel. When a home catches fire, it increases the chance nearby homes burn, too. That is especially true when homes are tightly packed.
When looking at California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection data for the entirety of the two fires, the insurance team found that “hardened” homes in Altadena and the Palisades that had noncombustable roofs, fire-resistant siding, double-pane windows and closed eaves survived undamaged at least 66% of the time, if they were at least 20 feet away from other structures.
But when the distance was less than 10 feet, only 45% of the hardened homes escaped with no damage.
“The spacing between structures, it’s the most definitive way to differentiate what survives and what doesn’t,” said Roy Wright, president and chief executive of the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety. At the same time, said Wright, “it’s not feasible to change that.”
Looking at steps that residents are more likely to be able to take, the insurance nonprofit found that the best approach is for homeowners to apply however many home hardening and defensible space measures that they can. Each one can shave a few percentage points off the risk of a home burning, and combined, the effect can be significant.
As for zone zero, the insurance team found a number of examples of how vegetation and flammable materials near a home could aid the destruction of a property.
At one home, embers appeared to have ignited some hedges a few feet away from the structure. That heat was enough to shatter a single pane window, creating the perfect opportunity for embers to enter and burn the house from the inside out. It miraculously survived.
At others, embers from the blazes landed on trash and recycling bins close to the houses, sometimes burning holes through the plastic lids and igniting the material inside. In one instance, the fire in the bin spread to a nearby garage door, but the house was spared.
Wooden decks and fences were also common accomplices that helped embers ignite a structure.
California’s current zone zero draft regulations take some of those risks into account. They prohibit wooden fences within the first five feet of a home; the state’s zone zero committee is also considering whether to prohibit virtually all vegetation in the zone or to just limit it (regardless, well-maintained trees are allowed).
On the other hand, the draft regulations do not prohibit keeping trash bins in the zone, which the committee determined would be difficult to enforce. They also do not mandate homeowners replace wooden decks.
The controversy around the draft regulations center around the proposal to remove virtually all healthy vegetation, including shrubs and grasses, from the zone.
Critics argue that, given the financial burden zone zero would place on homeowners, the state should instead focus on measures with lower costs and a significant proven benefit.
“A focus on vegetation is misguided,” said David Lefkowith, president of the Mandeville Canyon Assn.
At its most recent zone zero meeting, the Board of Forestry and Fire Protection directed staff to further research the draft regulations’ affordability.
“As the Board and subcommittee consider which set of options best balance safety, urgency, and public feasibility, we are also shifting our focus to implementation and looking to state leaders to identify resources for delivering on this first-in-the-nation regulation,” Tony Andersen, executive officer of the board, said in a statement. “The need is urgent, but we also want to invest the time necessary to get this right.”
Home hardening and defensible space are just two of many strategies used to protect lives and property. The insurance team suspects that many of the close calls they studied in the field — homes that almost burned but didn’t — ultimately survived thanks to firefighters who stepped in. Wildfire experts also recommend programs to prevent ignitions in the first place and to manage wildlands to prevent intense spread of a fire that does ignite.
For Wright, the report is a reminder of the importance of community. The fate of any individual home is tied to that of those nearby — it takes a whole neighborhood hardening their homes and maintaining their lawns to reach herd immunity protection against fire’s contagious spread.
“When there is collective action, it changes the outcomes,” Wright said. “Wildfire is insidious. It doesn’t stop at the fence line.”
How to watch Miami (FL) at Texas A&M: CFP First Round TV channel and streaming options for December 20
Boston Police say homicides are up 30 percent as Mayor Wu sticks to ‘safest major city’ claim
What drivers will face traveling into mountains near Denver on I-70 amid Floyd Hill bridge building
Evacuations ordered in 3 south Seattle suburbs after levee fails after week of heavy rain
The best things to do this week in San Diego: Dec. 15-19
Florida High School Football Rankings: Top 25 teams – Oct. 21
Cleary's 21 help Le Moyne down Central Connecticut State 69-64 in OT
How old is Bo Nix? What to know about Oregon quarterback ahead of 2024 NFL Draft
99th annual Pony Swim held in Virginia
Video: ‘It Didn’t Have to Happen This Way:’ U.Va. Faculty Call for Review of Police Response to Protests
Video: Rob Reiner and His Wife Are Found Dead in Their Los Angeles Home
Biden officials go silent when asked about Afghan refugee program after guardsmen shooting
South Korea indicts ex-leader Yoon over power plot provoking North
BBC Verify: Videos show impact of mass drone attacks launched by Ukraine and Russia
Bill and Hillary Clinton’s Stance on Epstein Testimony Nov. 3
-
Alaska1 week agoHowling Mat-Su winds leave thousands without power
-
Texas1 week agoTexas Tech football vs BYU live updates, start time, TV channel for Big 12 title
-
Washington6 days agoLIVE UPDATES: Mudslide, road closures across Western Washington
-
Iowa1 week agoMatt Campbell reportedly bringing longtime Iowa State staffer to Penn State as 1st hire
-
Iowa2 days agoHow much snow did Iowa get? See Iowa’s latest snowfall totals
-
Miami, FL1 week agoUrban Meyer, Brady Quinn get in heated exchange during Alabama, Notre Dame, Miami CFP discussion
-
Cleveland, OH1 week agoMan shot, killed at downtown Cleveland nightclub: EMS
-
World1 week ago
Chiefs’ offensive line woes deepen as Wanya Morris exits with knee injury against Texans
