Ever since Microsoft first introduced its Arm-based Copilot Plus laptops in June, I’ve been wondering when we might see Copilot Plus features appear on desktop PCs. Six months on, it’s clear we’re about to see mini PCs that deliver the AI performance required for features like Recall, Click To Do, and AI-powered image generation and editing in Windows 11. These mini PCs might even help Microsoft compete with Apple’s latest Mac Mini.
Technology
Microsoft’s mini AI PCs are on the way
Asus became the first PC manufacturer to announce a mini PC that’s Copilot Plus capable in September. It then revealed the full specs of its upcoming NUC 14 Pro AI last month, ahead of the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) that kicks off next week. Asus’ mini PC even has a Copilot button on the front and is almost identical to the size of Apple’s latest Mac Mini.
The timing of Asus’ spec drop came on the same day that Taiwanese company Geekom revealed three new mini PCs that it will showcase at CES. Geekom is releasing a mini PC with AMD’s Strix Point CPUs inside and one with Qualcomm’s Snapdragon X Elite processor, meaning both will be Copilot Plus compatible. The third model is powered by Intel’s unannounced Arrow Lake-H laptop processors, which are unlikely to have an NPU sufficient enough to be Copilot Plus compatible.
I’m going to be paying close attention to CES next week to see if there are any other Windows OEMs that are ready to launch Copilot Plus mini PCs. CES is usually a launch point for Microsoft’s latest laptop or tablet initiatives, and last year the company convinced OEMs to put a Copilot key on their laptop keyboards. Asus wouldn’t be adding a Copilot button on the front of its own mini PC without Microsoft’s involvement, so I wonder how many other PC makers Microsoft has been working with to add dedicated Copilot buttons.
Geekom’s mention of Qualcomm chips inside its mini PC means we’ll start to see Qualcomm’s latest chips venture beyond laptops for the first time. Qualcomm was supposed to ship its mini PC Snapdragon Dev Kit in June alongside Copilot Plus laptops, but it ended up canceling it months later after issues with manufacturing the device. Qualcomm has also teased that its Snapdragon X Elite chips could appear in mini PCs or even all-in-one PCs, so perhaps we’ll see some Copilot Plus all-in-one PCs next week, too.
I’m still waiting to see when we might get Copilot Plus features on traditional powerful desktop PCs. Intel’s latest Core Ultra desktop CPU arrived in October with an NPU inside, but it wasn’t capable enough to hit the 40 TOPS requirement that Microsoft mandates for Copilot Plus features. We’re going to have to wait until next-gen desktop CPUs from Intel and AMD arrive to see if more capable NPUs are a priority for chipmakers. Until then, mini PCs and all-in-one PCs that use laptop processors are going to be the only way to get Copilot Plus features in a desktop PC form factor.
While Copilot Plus features remain limited to Windows PCs, that doesn’t mean that we won’t see the main Copilot assistant appear on more devices. I’ve heard from multiple sources familiar with Microsoft’s plans that the company is keen to get Copilot on devices beyond just PCs, phones, and tablets.
We might well see Copilot appear on some unexpected hardware at CES next week, just as Microsoft has also been hinting about its ambitions for dedicated AI hardware in recent months. Windows chief Pavan Davuluri admitted in an October Notepad interview that the power of modern AI models “will free up the ability to innovate in hardware and come out with purpose-built hardware.”
Davuluri stopped short of detailing what dedicated AI hardware would look like for Microsoft, but weeks later Yusuf Mehdi, executive vice president and consumer chief marketing officer at Microsoft, dropped some additional hints in an underreported interview with YouTuber Austin Evans.
“These devices that see the world, that you wear on your body, on your person, I think that those combined with AI will be very valuable,” said Mehdi in late October. “It can do image recognition, it can talk to you about what’s going on. I think that’s a fascinating place that we’ll go.”
Later in the interview Mehdi also describes wearable health-related devices as exciting and “a big opportunity” for the future. Microsoft then confirmed last month that Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman has hired multiple former colleagues to help run a new AI health unit. It’s hard to imagine Microsoft venturing into fitness wearables again after the Microsoft Band was scrapped in 2016, but I could definitely see the company wanting to partner with device manufacturers and offer up AI-powered health services for these types of devices.
Either way, 2025 won’t see Microsoft slow down with its ambition to get Copilot on all the screens we look at every day.
The pad:
- 2024 was a big year for Windows on Arm. While Microsoft has been pushing the “year of the AI PC” throughout 2024, I think it was a bigger moment for Windows on Arm. Copilot Plus PCs ushered in some really solid improvements in performance, compatibility, and battery life for Windows on Arm this year. I still can’t quite believe I’m using an Arm-powered Windows laptop every day.
- A weird Windows 11 bug won’t let some people install any security updates. Another month and another weird Windows bug. Microsoft is now warning Windows 11 users that if you’ve manually installed the OS recently, there’s an odd bug where you might not get future security updates. It largely impacts USB installers that were created using the October and November release patches, so businesses will be impacted the most. The workaround requires a full rebuild right now, though, and Microsoft says it’s working on a permanent fix.
- Lenovo has a special gaming handheld event next week with Valve and Microsoft. Leaks have suggested Lenovo is about to announce its first SteamOS handheld gaming PC. Now Lenovo has revealed a “future of gaming handhelds” event at CES next week that will include Valve as well as Microsoft’s VP of next generation, Jason Ronald. It looks like Microsoft and Valve might be about to go head to head over the future of handheld gaming — something I wrote about in a previous Notepad issue. Ronald’s attendance is particularly interesting given he was previously the vice president of Xbox gaming devices and ecosystem. I understand Ronald has been involved in Microsoft’s next-gen Xbox plans for quite some time now, but it’s curious that Microsoft picked this particular event to confirm Ronald’s new title. I’m sure I’ll have a lot more to say about this mysterious Lenovo event in next week’s Notepad.
- Microsoft is testing live translation on Intel and AMD Copilot Plus PCs. Microsoft has started previewing its live translation feature for Windows Insiders in the Dev Channel. Live translation was initially limited to Qualcomm-powered Copilot Plus PCs, but Microsoft is starting to bring more of these Windows AI features to AMD- and Intel-powered Copilot Plus PCs.
- Microsoft and OpenAI’s partnership hinges on the AGI question. A new report from The Information claims that Microsoft and OpenAI’s wrangling over the terms of their partnership could involve the definition of artificial general intelligence (AGI) as a moment when $100 billion is returned in profits. AGI has always been the point at which Microsoft’s deal with OpenAI would end, so a high-profit milestone will certainly complicate OpenAI’s efforts to declare AGI and end its contract with Microsoft given it’s still struggling with profits. Separately, Microsoft thinks core pieces are still missing from AGI, so the debate over when it’s likely to be declared will continue for quite some time.
- Microsoft kills off Skype credits and phone numbers in favor of subscriptions. Skype has been struggling to keep up with the popularity of WhatsApp, Messenger, Zoom, and many other VoIP services in recent years. Now, Microsoft has quietly ended the sale of new Skype credits and the phone number features for Skype in favor of subscriptions instead. Skype Credit was a way to use a pay-as-you-go plan for making calls with Skype, but you’ll now need a subscription to use this functionality.
- Microsoft warns Phone Link won’t show “sensitive” Android 15 notifications. A new Android 15 privacy feature that categorizes notifications like 2FA codes as sensitive is causing some issues for Microsoft’s Phone Link feature in Windows. You can turn off the enhanced notifications in Android 15 to work around the issue, but Windows should still show sensitive notifications on Android devices where Phone Link was preinstalled on the device.
- The Xbox Sebile controller is still on the way. During the FTC v. Microsoft case in 2023 a huge amount of unannounced Xbox hardware was leaked, including a new Xbox controller codenamed Sebile. While the controller was supposed to originally debut in 2024, Microsoft appears to now be holding it back for its next-gen console instead. Windows Central reports that a new patent details Sebile’s new haptic motors that are spread throughout the controller. Sebile will also support direct Wi-Fi connectivity to Xbox Cloud Gaming, much like Google’s Stadia controller.
- GitHub now has a free tier for Copilot in VS Code. Microsoft-owned GitHub was the first to start using the Copilot branding for a paid AI coding assistant in 2021. GitHub is now offering a free version of GitHub Copilot in VS Code. It includes 2,000 code completions and 50 chat messages per month, and is available for the 150 million developers using GitHub. It also includes the choice between using Anthropic’s Claude 3.5 Sonnet or OpenAI’s GPT-4o model to ask coding questions, explain code, or let the AI models find bugs in your code.
- Microsoft is working on adding non-OpenAI models to its Microsoft 365 Copilot. Microsoft is reportedly working on adding third-party AI models to its Microsoft 365 Copilot soon. Reuters reports that Microsoft is looking at other models to reduce costs of the AI assistant in Office apps and lessen its dependence on OpenAI. I wouldn’t be surprised if this involved Microsoft’s own AI models, but the company could also follow GitHub’s move to support models from Anthropic and Google.
Thanks for subscribing and reading to the very end. I’ll be reflecting on Microsoft’s 50-year history in Notepad later this year, so if there’s a particular period of time you’re interested in hearing more about,please get in touch: notepad@theverge.com.
If you’ve heard about any of Microsoft’s other secret projects, you can also reach me via email at notepad@theverge.com or speak to me confidentially on the Signal messaging app, where I’m tomwarren.01. I’m also tomwarren on Telegram, if you’d prefer to chat there.
Technology
US arrests soldier who allegedly made $400k on Maduro Polymarket bets
On or about January 6, 2026, for example, VAN DYKE asked Polymarket to delete his Polymarket account, falsely claiming that he had lost access to the email address to which the account had been associated. That same day, VAN DYKE changed the email registered to his cryptocurrency exchange account to an email address that was not subscribed to in his name, which email address was created on or about December 14., 2025.
Technology
How Florida retiree lost $200K in fake PayPal refund scam
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Brian Oliver is retired, sharp and financially savvy enough to have a stock-and-bond portfolio worth hundreds of thousands of dollars. He is not the type of person you picture getting scammed. That is exactly why scammers picked him.
What happened to Oliver, 85, is the kind of story that makes your jaw drop, and your stomach turn at the same time. It started with a routine-looking email and ended with a box of gold coins rolling away in the back of a black Mustang. In between, Oliver lost $200,000 and nearly half of his retirement savings.
He told his story on my Beyond Connected podcast at getbeyondconnected.com, along with Detective Justin Torres of the Gainesville Police Department in Florida. What they shared together is equal parts chilling and clarifying.
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BEWARE FAKE CREDIT CARD ACCOUNT RESTRICTION SCAMS
Brian Oliver shares how a routine-looking email pulled him into a sophisticated refund scam that cost him $200,000. (Sebastian Gollnow/picture alliance)
It all started with a PayPal refund scam email
Brian got an email that said PayPal owed him money. It was not a wild claim. He had dealt with PayPal before and figured, “Maybe they found some money for me.” So he responded. The email included a phone number, and that number connected him to a man who called himself Andrew Johnson.
“Yeah, we have $450 for you. Type in the number 100 on your computer and we’ll get it started.”
Brian typed 100. Andrew immediately said he had made a mistake: “Oh no, you put in 10,000.”
Brian pushed back. He said he did not type 10,000. Andrew told him to check his Bank of America account. Brian opened it, and there it was: $10,000 sitting in his checking account.
Except it was not real. The scammers had somehow mirrored his bank’s website. What Brian saw looked exactly like his actual Bank of America page, complete with a new balance and a phone number embedded in the “Contact Us” section. That number was fake, too.
Brian called it. A man named Josh answered, identifying himself as a Bank of America representative. He told Brian that the only way to return the money without triggering a $3,500 tax penalty was to withdraw $10,000 in cash and feed it into a crypto ATM.
How the PayPal refund scam tricked Brian
Oliver had never heard of a crypto ATM before that day. Josh helpfully told him exactly where to find one. It was in a sketchy part of town, and Oliver walked in carrying $10,000 in his pocket.
“I’m on my knees, on a cement floor, and I’m 85,” Oliver said.
He fed one hundred $100 bills into the machine, bill by bill, watching over his shoulder the entire time. Some bills got kicked back out. He fed them in again. When the machine finally accepted all of them, he photographed the receipt and sent it to Andrew Johnson, just as he had been instructed.
Then Oliver went home and told Andrew it was done. Andrew told him they still had to take care of his refund. He told Oliver to type in the number 200.
FAKE PAYPAL EMAIL LET HACKERS ACCESS COMPUTER AND BANK ACCOUNT
Oliver typed it. Andrew’s response came fast: “Oh my God, my boss is going to kill me. It’s $200,000 we’ve transferred to your account.”
This type of scam is becoming more common, and it often involves criminals impersonating trusted platforms like PayPal.
“PayPal does not tolerate fraudulent activity, and we work hard to protect our customers from evolving phishing scams,” a spokesperson for PayPal told CyberGuy. “We always encourage consumers to learn how to spot the warning signs of common fraud, including our tips on the PayPal Newsroom for identifying phishing emails that attempt to impersonate trusted brands. We further recommend contacting Customer Support for assistance through official channels such as the PayPal app and our Contact Us webpage, and never responding to suspicious, unexpected emails.”
How the scam escalated to $200,000 in gold
Oliver opened his bank account again. The fake mirrored site showed $200,000 sitting there. Josh Wilson was back on the phone with a new plan. This time, the crypto ATM would not work because the amount was too large. Oliver needed to liquidate $200,000 from his stock and bond portfolio, convert it to cash and use it to buy gold coins.
Oliver protested. He told them to just reverse the transfer. They said it was impossible.
“This is my retirement money. 50% of my retirement money,” he said.
The scammers told him not to breathe a word to anyone. Josh specifically warned him that telling his broker the truth could trigger tax problems. So Oliver called his broker and said he had his eye on a piece of real estate he wanted to flip. The broker processed the sale without question.
YOUTUBE JOB SCAM TEXT: HOW TO SPOT IT FAST
Oliver went to a gold coin store, wrote a check for $198,560 and waited two to three days for it to clear. Andrew Johnson stayed in regular contact the entire time.
When the gold was ready, Johnson gave Oliver one final instruction. A courier would come to his door to pick up the box. Before handing it over, Oliver should ask the courier for a password. The password was “blue.”
The courier arrived. He was driving a black Mustang. He said the word blue. Oliver handed over the box.
“He told me the password,” Oliver said. “I handed the box, and off went my $200,000.”
The moment Brian Oliver realized it was all a scam
The day after the courier left, Andrew Johnson called back with urgency. He told Brian Oliver another $200,000 had landed in his account, and they needed to do the whole thing over again. That was the moment it broke.
“That’s when I came out from under the ether of this scam,” Oliver said. “And I said, this cannot be right.”
He immediately called the Gainesville Police Department.
The high-stakes sting that brought down a scam courier
Detective Justin Torres of the Gainesville Police Department took the call and started working the case immediately. The scammers had asked Oliver for photos of the gold and the purchase receipt, which gave law enforcement about a day and a half to set up an operation before the courier was scheduled to return.
Detective Torres pulled in four officers from the department’s Gun Violence Initiative unit, a team of intermediate detectives trained for exactly this kind of boots-on-ground work. They set up covert and marked vehicles around Oliver’s residence at a careful distance.
“It was pretty high intensity because I’m listening to Mr. Oliver’s conversation with Andrew,” Torres said. “And I’m also trying to be a good distance away to listen to my radio and be able to broadcast what I need to to the other officers on the outside.”
The scammers were suspicious. They kept pushing Oliver to be more compliant. Oliver pushed back. The goal was to keep them on the line long enough for the courier to show up. The courier, a man named Seth Wayne, drove in from Tampa. The officers waited. When he arrived, they arrested him. The case went to trial. Seth Wayne received an 18-year prison sentence.
A federal jury has since convicted a second courier in the same scheme. Atharva Shailesh Sathawane, 22, an undocumented immigrant from India, was found guilty of conspiracy to commit wire fraud and money laundering, with Brian Oliver among his victims.
Sathawane was arrested after the Gainesville Police Department set up a second sting operation at Brian’s home. Court documents showed Sathawane was involved in more than 30 transactions across multiple states, contributing to nearly $8 million stolen from elderly victims. He faces up to 20 years on each count, with sentencing scheduled for Dec. 16 in Gainesville, though he is appealing his conviction.
How refund scams are hitting multiple victims
The scam began with a convincing message and quickly escalated as criminals guided Brian Oliver step by step through fake account activity. (Halfpoint/iStock/Getty Images)
Ten other victims testified at Seth Wayne’s trial. They had come from all over the state of Florida, and their stories made Oliver furious.
Some had received fake arrest warrants, official-looking documents claiming their identities had been tied to gun running. They were told the only way to clear their names was to pull their savings and buy gold, which would be placed in a special locker in Washington, D.C., until their names were cleared.
One victim lost $1.8 million. Another lost $4.9 million. A third woman lost over $1 million across two separate pickups by the same courier. Her husband was in hospice care in Florida while all of this was happening. She drained her entire life savings, sold her condo and had to move in with her daughter and son-in-law in Alabama, leaving her dying husband behind.
Where the money from refund scams actually goes
Once the gold or cash leaves a victim’s hands, recovery is nearly impossible. Most of Seth Wayne’s deliveries went to parking lots at McDonald’s or shopping centers, where he handed the money directly to a controller. One pickup went to a jewelry store, where an employee came outside to collect it. That connection is still under active investigation by the IRS and FBI.
The call centers running these operations are overseas. Higher-level couriers in the United States are still being investigated. The full network is, as Detective Torres put it, “very intricate” and “very complicated.”
Seth Wayne himself was a mid-to-upper-level courier. He was also paying other couriers and compensating his handler. When investigators downloaded his cell phone after a judge-approved search warrant, they found evidence that he had researched exactly what he was doing before deciding the money was worth the risk.
SCAMS THAT AREN’T ILLEGAL (BUT SHOULD BE)
The defense of “willful blindness,” the idea that a courier can claim ignorance and escape responsibility, no longer holds up in Florida courts. Seth Wayne found that out the hard way.
For a deeper look at what Oliver went through, you can hear the full story on my Beyond Connected podcast at getbeyondconeccted.com.
How to stay safe from refund scams
Detective Torres laid out the most important red flags clearly, and Oliver added a few from painful personal experience. Here is what both of them want you to know.
1) Hang up on urgency
Scammers manufacture pressure because it works. If someone on the phone is telling you that you must act right now, that is not a real emergency. That is a tactic. Torres put it directly: “They want to make you believe that you have to do all this right now.”
2) Never call the number they give you
If someone calls claiming to be from PayPal, your bank or a law enforcement agency, hang up and find the real number yourself. The number embedded in Oliver’s fake bank website looked completely legitimate. It was not.
3) Pause for ten seconds
Literally ten seconds. Detective Torres confirmed what many security experts say: “If you pause these scams for just 10 seconds, many of them will just fall apart.” A scammer who is pushed back even slightly will often overreact, and that reaction will feel wrong.
4) Isolation is the biggest red flag
The moment someone on the phone tells you not to tell a family member, friend or neighbor what is happening, stop. That instruction exists for one reason: to prevent you from getting help before they get your money. “Once you start hearing that isolation conversation, that is the biggest red flag,” Torres said. “You need to hang up the phone.”
5) Gold is always a scam signal
Oliver made this one simple: “If you’re told to go buy gold, the only reason they tell you to buy gold is because it can never be traced. It’s a scam.” No legitimate company, government agency or financial institution will ever ask you to buy gold coins and hand them to a stranger.
6) The courier at your door means stop
If you have already bought gold and someone is coming to your home to pick it up in a box, Oliver’s advice is direct: “Stop right there. It’s a scam.”
7) Never move money to fix a ‘mistake’
If someone claims they accidentally sent you money and asks you to return it, stop right there. Real companies fix errors on their own systems. They will not ask you to withdraw cash, buy crypto or purchase gold to correct a transaction.
8) Verify your account on your own device
If you need to check your bank account, use your official banking app or type the website yourself. Do not trust links, screens or phone numbers provided during a call. In many cases, scammers create fake sites that look identical to the real thing.
9) Be wary of step-by-step instructions
Scammers often stay on the phone and guide you through every move. That level of control should raise concern. Legitimate companies do not walk you through withdrawing cash, using crypto ATMs or buying gold to solve a problem.
10) Bring in a second person
Before moving a large amount of money, pause and call someone you trust. A quick conversation with a family member or friend can shift your perspective. In many cases, that outside voice is enough to stop a scam in progress.
11) Limit how much of your information is online
Scammers build convincing stories using real details they find online. This can include your phone number, home address or financial history. To reduce that risk, consider removing your information from data broker and people-search sites. While you can do this manually, it often takes time, which is why some people use a data removal service such as Incogni to help automate the process and keep their information from resurfacing.
Check out my top picks for data removal services and get a free scan to find out if your personal information is already out on the web by visiting Cyberguy.com.
Get a free scan to find out if your personal information is already out on the web: Cyberguy.com.
Scammers often operate behind the scenes, using technology and social engineering to manipulate victims into handing over cash or valuables. (Paul Chinn/The San Francisco Chronicle/Getty Images)
Kurt’s key takeaways
Brian Oliver lost $200,000, leaving him with only half of his retirement savings. Today, he says he is slowly sinking toward bankruptcy, and the odds of getting that money back are slim. Even so, he chose to go public so others could hear his story before it happens to them. What makes this case different is that it led to real consequences. Detective Torres and his team moved quickly and set up a sting operation. As a result, they arrested a courier who later received an 18-year prison sentence. Meanwhile, the IRS and FBI are still investigating the larger network. However, this kind of outcome is rare. In most cases, victims lose everything and never see justice. These scams are complex, often run from overseas, and are designed to move money fast. Because of that, law enforcement usually focuses on the people closest to the victim and works backward. In the end, Oliver’s turning point came during a second demand for money. At that moment, something felt off, so he paused. Then he said, “This cannot be right.” That instinct matters. In many cases, that brief pause is enough to break the scam.
If you were in Oliver’s position, at what exact moment do you think you would have stopped, and what would it have taken for you to make that call? Let us know by writing to us at Cyberguy.com.
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Technology
BEWARE SOFTWARE BRAIN
Today on Decoder, I want to lay out an idea that’s been banging around my head for weeks now as we’ve been reporting on AI and having conversations here on this show. I’ve been calling it software brain, and it’s a particular way of seeing the world that fits everything into algorithms, databases and loops — software.
Software brain is powerful stuff. It’s a way of thinking that basically created our modern world. Marc Andreessen, the literal embodiment of software brain, called it in 2011 when he wrote the piece “Why software is eating the world” as an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal. But software thinking has been turbocharged by AI in a way that I think helps explain the enormous gap between how excited the tech industry is about the technology and how regular people are growing to dislike it more and more over time.
In fact, the polling on this is so strong, I think it’s fair to say that a lot of people hate AI. And Gen Z in particular seems to hate AI more and more as they encounter it. There’s that NBC News poll showing AI with worse favorability than ICE and only a little bit above the war in Iran and the Democrats generally. That’s with nearly two thirds of respondents saying they used ChatGPT or Copilot in the last month. Quinnipiac just found that over half of Americans think AI will do more harm than good, while more than 80 percent of people were either very concerned or somewhat concerned about the technology. Only 35 percent of people were excited about it.
Poll after poll shows that Gen Z uses AI the most and has the most negative feelings about it. A recent Gallup poll found that only 18 percent of Gen Z was hopeful about AI, down from an already-bad 27 percent last year. At the same time, anger is growing: 31 percent of those Gen Z respondents said they feel angry about AI, up from 22 percent last year.
Now, I obviously talk to a lot of tech executives and policy people here on Decoder, and I will tell you, they all know AI isn’t popular, and they can all see how that’s playing out in real life. Here’s Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella talking about how the tech industry needs to make the case for the investments it’s making in AI:
Satya Nadella: At the end of the day, I think this industry, to which I belong, needs to earn the social permission to consume energy because we’re doing good in the world.
I think it’s safe to say that the tech industry and AI have not earned any of that social permission yet. Politicians from both sides of the aisle are opposing data center buildouts. Politicians in local communities that support data centers are getting voted out of office. And in the most depressing reminder of how much political violence has become a part of everyday American life, politicians who’ve supported data centers have had their houses shot at. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has had Molotov cocktails thrown at his house.
It’s sad that I’m going to have to say this again on the show, and it’s sad that we’re going to have commenters who disagree, but this violence is unacceptable. If you want to meaningfully oppose AI in a way that lasts, you should speak loudly with your dollars in the market and your attention online, and you should speak loudly with your votes. You should participate in a democratic regulatory and political process. Anything else will get dismissed and perpetuate the cycle. That dismissal is already happening.
I also think it’s incredibly important for our politicians and tech executives to make sure our political process makes people feel empowered, not helpless, which is a specific kind of nihilism they have all greatly contributed to. The violence is a result of that helplessness and nihilism. And the most powerful people in our society ought to reckon with that, especially as they run around saying AI will wipe out all the jobs. I’m not even exaggerating this. Here’s Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei saying he thinks AI will wipe out all the jobs:
Dario Amodei: Entry-level jobs in areas like finance, consulting, tech and many other areas like that —- entry-level white-collar work — I worry that those things are going to be first augmented, but before long replaced by AI systems. We may indeed —- it’s hard to predict the future — but we may indeed have a serious employment crisis on our hands as the pipeline for this early-stage, white-collar work starts to contract and dry up.
What I see when I encounter clips like this is the true gap between the tech industry and regular people when it comes to AI — and also the limit of software brain. Like I said, everyone in tech understands how much regular people dislike AI. What I think they’re missing is why. They think this is a marketing problem. OpenAI just spent $200 million on the TBPN podcast because the company thinks it will help make people like AI more. Sam Altman has said so explicitly:
Sam Altman: Oh, they are genius marketers and I would love to have better marketing. Somebody said to me recently that if AI were a political candidate, it would be the least popular political candidate in history. And given the amazing things AI can do, I think there’s got to be better marketing for AI.
It feels like someone just needs to say this clearly, so I’m just going to do it. AI doesn’t have a marketing problem. People experience these tools every single day. ChatGPT has 900 million weekly users, trending to a billion, and everyone has seen AI Overviews in Google Search and massive amounts of slop on their feeds. You can’t advertise people out of reacting to their own experiences. This is a fundamental disconnect between how tech people with software brains see the world and how regular people are living their lives.
Image: The Verge
So what is software brain? The simplest definition I’ve come up with is that it’s when you see the whole world as a series of databases that can be controlled with structured language and software code. Like I said, this is a powerful way of seeing things. So much of our lives run through databases, and a bunch of important companies have been built around maintaining those databases and providing access to them.
Zillow is a database of houses. Uber is a database of cars and riders. YouTube is a database of videos. The Verge’s website is a database of stories. You can go on and on and on. Once you start seeing the world as a bunch of databases, it’s a small jump to feeling like you can control everything if you can just control the data.
But that doesn’t always work. Here’s an example: Elon Musk and DOGE showed up in the government, and the first thing they did was take control of a bunch of databases. And they ran into the undeniable fact that the databases aren’t reality, and DOGE ended in hilarious failure. It turns out software brain has a limit, and the government isn’t software. People aren’t computers, and they don’t live in automatable loops that can be neatly captured in databases.
Anyone who’s actually ever run a database knows this. At some point, the database stops matching reality. And at that point, we usually end up tweaking the database, not the world. The AI industry has fully lost sight of this. AI thrives on data. It’s just software. And so the ask is for more and more of us to conform our lives to the database, not the other way around.
Let me offer you another example that I think about all the time, especially as AI finds real fit as a business tool. It’s the idea that AI is coming for lawyers and the legal system. The AI industry loves to talk about not needing lawyers anymore, which is already getting all kinds of people into all kinds of trouble. But I get it. I’ve spent a lot of time with lawyers. I used to be a lawyer. My wife is still a lawyer. Some of my best friends are lawyers.

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I also spend all of my time at work talking to tech people. And so over time, I’ve learned that the overlap between software brain and lawyer brain is very, very deep. Alluringly deep. If the heart of software brain is the idea that thinking in the structured language of code can make things happen in the real world, well, the heart of lawyer brain is that thinking in the structured legal language of statutes and citations can also make things happen. Hell, it can give you power over society.
There are other commonalities. Both software development and the law depend heavily on precedent. We have a body of case law in this country, and we use it over and over again to help us resolve disputes. Much like software engineers have libraries of code that they turn to repeatedly to build the foundations of their products. I can go on.
At the end of the day, both lawyers and engineers do their best to use formal, structured language to guide the behavior of complicated systems in predictable and potentially profitable ways. I am far from the first person with this idea. Larry Lessig wrote a book called Code and Other Laws of Cyberspace in 2000. It’s just as relevant today as it was a quarter century ago.
And so you have this intoxicating similarity between law and code, and it trips people up all the time. People are constantly trying to issue commands to society at large like it’s a computer that will obey instructions. There are examples of this big and small. My favorite are those Facebook forwards insisting Mark Zuckerberg does not have the right to publish people’s photos. Honestly, I look at these, and I think it would be great if the law was actually code. Maybe things would be more predictable. Maybe we’d feel more in control.
But law isn’t actually code, and society and courts aren’t computers. I have to remind our fairly technical audience on Decoder and at The Verge all the time that the law is not deterministic. You simply cannot take the facts of a case, the law as written, and predict the outcome of that case with any real certainty, even though the formality of the legal system makes people think it works like a computer, that it’s predictable.
Because at the end of the day, it’s actually ambiguity that’s at the very heart of our legal system. It’s ambiguity that makes lawyers lawyers. Honestly, it’s ambiguity that makes people hate lawyers because it’s always possible to argue the other side, and it’s always possible to find the gray area in the law. That’s why prosecutors end up working as defense attorneys and why our regulators tend to end up working for big corporations.
So you can see the obvious collision between software brain and lawyer brain. This thing that looks like a computer isn’t actually anything at all like a computer. A lot of people even argue that the law should be more like a computer, that the system should be verifiable and consistent, and that merely issuing the right commands at the right times should lead to objectively correct outcomes.
Bridget McCormack, who used to be the chief justice of the Michigan Supreme Court, was on Decoder a few months ago pitching a fully automated AI arbitration system. Her argument to me was that people perceive the traditional legal system to be so unfair, they will accept a worse outcome from an automated system as more fair as long as they feel heard. And if there’s one thing AI can do, it’s sit there and listen all day and night. I don’t know if any of that is correct or even workable, but I do know software brain, and that is pure software brain. The idea that we can force the real world to act like a computer and then have AI issue that computer instructions.
You can see the same thing happening in every other kind of industry. You don’t hire a big consulting firm to actually come in and study your business and make it more efficient. You hire them to make slide decks that justify layoffs to your board and shareholders. Big consulting firms are great at this, and now they’re just going to generate those decks with AI. They are already doing this and the layoffs have already begun.
Any business process that looks like code talking to a database in a repetitive way is up for grabs. That’s why Anthropic has been so relentlessly focused on enterprise customers, and it’s why OpenAI is now pivoting to business use. There’s real value in introducing AI to business because so much of modern business is already software, collecting data, analyzing it, and taking action on it over and over again in a loop. Businesses also control their data, and they can demand that all their databases work together. In this way, software brain has ruled the business world for a long time. And AI has made it easier than ever for more people to make more software than ever before, for every kind of business to automate big chunks of itself with software. The absolute cutting edge of advertising and marketing is automation with AI. It’s not being in creative.
But not everything is a business, not everything is a loop, and the entire human experience cannot be captured in a database. That’s the limit of software brain. That’s why people hate AI. It flattens them. Regular people don’t see the opportunity to write code as an opportunity at all. The people do not yearn for automation. I’m a full-on smart home sicko; the lights and shades and climate controls of this house are automated in dozens of ways. But huge companies like Apple, Google and Amazon have struggled for over a decade now to make regular people care about smart home automation at all. And they just don’t.
AI isn’t going to fix that. Most people are not collecting data about every single thing that they do. And if they’re collecting any at all, it’s stored across lots of different systems — your email in Gmail, your messages in iMessage, your work schedule in Outlook, your workouts in Peloton. Those systems don’t talk to each other and maybe they never will, because there’s no reason for them to. And asking people to connect them all freaks them out.
Even taking the time to consider how much of your life is captured in databases makes people unhappy. No one wants to be surveilled constantly, and especially not in a way that makes tech companies even more powerful. But getting everything in a database so software can see it is a preoccupation of the AI industry. It’s why all the meeting systems have AI note takers in them now. It’s why Canva, which is design software, now connects to corporate email systems. My friend Ezra Klein just went to Silicon Valley, and he described the people that are actively trying to flatten themselves into a database:
Ezra Klein: You might think that A.I. types in Silicon Valley, flush with cash, are on top of the world right now. I found them notably insecure. They think the A.I. age has arrived and its winners and losers will be determined, in part, by speed of adoption. The argument is simple enough: The advantages of working atop an army of A.I. assistants and coders will compound over time, and to begin that process now is to launch yourself far ahead of your competition later. And so they are racing one another to fully integrate A.I. into their lives and into their companies. But that doesn’t just mean using A.I. It means making themselves legible to the A.I.
You can give it access to everything that’s there: your files, your email, your calendar, your messages. It operates continuously in the background, building a persistent memory of your preferences and patterns so it can better act on your behalf. The cybersecurity risks are glaring, but there’s a reason millions of people are using it: The more of your life you open to A.I., the more valuable the A.I. becomes.
I’ve reviewed a lot of tech products over the past decade and a half, and all I can tell you is that it is a failure when you ask people to adapt to computers. Computers should adapt to people. And asking people to make themselves more legible to software, to turn themselves into a database, is a doomed idea. It’s an ask so big, I can’t imagine a reward that would make it worth it for anyone, even if the tech industry wasn’t constantly talking about how AI will eliminate all the jobs, require a wholesale rethinking of the social contract and — oops — also the latest models might cause catastrophic cybersecurity problems that might lead to the end of the world.
Does this sound like a good deal to you? Can you market your way out of this? This only makes sense if you have software brain, if your operative framework is to flatten everything into databases that you can control with structured language. The people paying thousands of dollars a month to set up swarms of OpenClaw agents and write thousands of lines of code, they’re people who look at the world and see opportunities for automation, to repeat tasks, to collect data, to build software. AI is great for them. It’s even exciting in ways that I think are important and will probably change our relationship to computers forever.
For everyone else, AI is just a demanding slop monster. It’s a threat. I’m not saying regular people don’t use Excel or Airtable to plan their weddings or have fun throwing PowerPoint parties, or even that AI won’t be useful to regular people over time. I think a lot of people enjoy data and tracking different parts of their lives. There’s my WHOOP band. I’m just saying these things aren’t everything. Not everything about our lives can be measured and automated and optimized. It shouldn’t be.
And so the tech industry is rushing forward to put AI everywhere at enormous cost — energy, emissions, manufacturing capacity, the ability to buy RAM — and locked into the narrow framework of software brain without realizing they are also asking people to be fundamentally less human. They then sit around wondering why everyone hates them. I don’t think a couple haircuts are going to fix it.
Questions or comments about this episode? Hit us up at decoder@theverge.com. We really do read every email!
Decoder with Nilay Patel
A podcast from The Verge about big ideas and other problems.
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