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Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs prediction, odds, best bets for NFL on Saturday
The Houston Texans will square off with the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 16 of the NFL season at Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday at 1 p.m. EST. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have yet to score 30 points in a game this season, and with a predicted score of 23-20, our data model thinks that streak will remain intact. However, our experts believe the oddsmaker have gotten overly aggressive with the total: our best bet for today is Over 41.5 points (-115).
In anticipation of this late-season AFC clash, the data analysts at Dimers.com have simulated the game 10,000 times, and then compared these results to current NFL betting odds to inform the data-driven betting preview provided to you below.
This preview includes Dimers’ best bets and predicted scoreline for Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs. To unlock Dimers’ full suite of data-driven betting insights, which includes daily props, trends, and parlays, sign up for Dimers Pro with promo code SYRACUSE10, which will save you 10% off your first subscription payment.
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Texans vs. Chiefs betting preview
Utilize the interactive widget below to discover the current spread, over/under, and moneyline betting odds and probabilities for the Texans-Chiefs game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
This prediction and best bet for Saturday’s NFL matchup between the Texans and Chiefs is from Dimers.com, a trusted source for sports betting predictions.
Check out all the important details on today’s game, as well as the best odds sourced from the top sportsbooks in the country.
Game details
Key information on the Texans vs. Chiefs matchup, including where the game is and what time it kicks off.
- Teams: Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- Date: Saturday, December 21, 2024
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. EST
- Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
- NFL standings: Current NFL division standings
- NFL injuries: Check the latest updates to the official NFL injury report
Odds
The latest and best odds for the NFL battle between the Texans and Chiefs.
- Spread: Texans +3.5 (-115), Chiefs -3.5 (-102)
- Moneyline: Texans +160, Chiefs -180
- Total: Over/Under 41.5 (-115/-105)
The odds and lines presented here are the best available from selected sports betting sites at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Expert prediction: Texans vs. Chiefs
Utilizing state-of-the-art data analysis and advanced algorithms, the experts at Dimers have performed 10,000 simulations of Saturday’s Texans vs. Chiefs game.
According to Dimers’ famous predictive analytics model, the Chiefs are more likely to beat the Texans at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. This prediction is based on the model giving the Chiefs a 63% chance of winning the game.
Elsewhere on the betting board, Dimers predicts that the bookies have gotten it right and the Texans and Chiefs each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 41.5 points has a 56% chance of going over.
As always, these predictions and probabilities are correct at the time of publication but are subject to change.
Texans vs. Chiefs best bet
Our top pick for the Texans vs. Chiefs Week 16 NFL game is to bet on Over 41.5 points (-115).
This betting advice is formulated through detailed simulations and valuable wagering intelligence, designed to deliver you the best possible plays.
Score prediction for Texans vs. Chiefs
Dimers’ projected final score for the Houston vs. Kansas City game on Saturday has the Chiefs winning 23-20.
This expert prediction is based on each team’s average score following 10,000 game simulations, offering a glimpse into the potential outcome.
NFL player props: Saturday
NFL player props are an exciting way to wager on Saturday’s game without necessarily betting on its outcome.
This article features the most likely first and anytime touchdown scorers for the Texans and Chiefs, along with projected player stats.
Houston Texans
First touchdown scorer predictions
- Joe Mixon: 14.4% probability
- Nico Collins: 10.6% probability
- Tank Dell: 6.6% probability
Anytime touchdown predictions
- Joe Mixon: 53.3% probability
- Nico Collins: 41.6% probability
- Tank Dell: 28.4% probability
Projected box score leaders
- QB passing yards: C.J. Stroud, 270 yards
- Receiving yards: Nico Collins, 86 yards
- Rushing yards: Joe Mixon, 73 yards
Kansas City Chiefs
First touchdown scorer predictions
- Isiah Pacheco: 8.2% probability
- DeAndre Hopkins: 7.3% probability
- Xavier Worthy: 6.7% probability
Anytime touchdown predictions
- Isiah Pacheco: 34.1% probability
- DeAndre Hopkins: 30.0% probability
- Travis Kelce: 28.7% probability
Projected box score leaders
- QB passing yards: Patrick Mahomes, 274 yards
- Receiving yards: Travis Kelce, 64 yards
- Rushing yards: Isiah Pacheco, 51 yards
NFL Week 16: Texans vs. Chiefs
Get ready for Saturday’s matchup between the Texans and Chiefs in Week 16 of the NFL season at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, which is scheduled to start at 1 p.m. EST. We emphasize that all of the NFL best bets and NFL predictions on this page are based on 10,000 data-driven simulations of the Texans vs. Chiefs matchup, and they are accurate at the time of publication. They aim to assist you make more informed choices when placing bets at online sportsbooks.
Please note that when engaging in online betting, it is important to exercise responsible gambling practices and consult reputable sources for the latest and most accurate information.
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Ottawa, Kansas, offers $6,000 cash to attract new residents to the small town
KSHB 41 reporter Olivia Acree covers portions of Johnson County, Kansas. Share your story idea with Olivia.
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Would $6,000 entice you to move? If it does, consider Ottawa, Kansas.
The small town is rolling out the red carpet for potential new residents with a $6,000 cash incentive as part of the state’s first-ever relocation program.
Rural Kansas county will give you $6K to move to small town
Basically, the program is using $3 million in state funding to help local communities create “please move here” packages.
“Our community is really ready and primed to be able to grow. And hopefully this program allows the degree to kind of jump start that,” said Ryland Miller, Ottawa Chamber of Commerce president.
KSHB
There are just a few requirements to apply. Applicants must be from outside the state, have a job secured before moving and maintain a household income of at least $55,000.
Here’s the link to learn more.
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Patrick Mahomes undergoes surgery to repair ACL day after injury
What is next for Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs?
Joe Rivera and and Chris Bumbaca break down Patrick Mahomes’ ACL tear and where they see the KC organization going moving forward.
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes underwent surgery to repair his torn left ACL on Dec. 15 in Dallas, Texas, the team said.
Dr. Dan Cooper, an orthopedic surgeon based in Dallas, performed the surgery. Cooper specializes in knee and shoulder injuries for the Carrell Clinic, based in Texas.
Chiefs head coach Andy Reid said earlier Dec. 15 that Mahomes was seeking a second opinion in the Dallas area. The Chiefs said Mahomes will begin his rehab immediately. The three-time Super Bowl winner will have roughly nine months to prepare for Week 1 of the 2026 season.
ESPN reported that Cooper also repaired Mahomes’ torn lateral collateral ligament (LCL).
Mahomes suffered the injury on Dec. 14 as the Chiefs lost to the Los Angeles Chargers at home, which knocked them out of playoff contention. The two-time MVP was tackled from behind by Chargers defensive end Da’Shawn Hand. Mahomes immediately reached for his left knee after being rolled up from behind as Kansas City’s medical staff immediately tended to him.
He eventually walked off under his own power but Chiefs head coach Andy Reid told reporters that the initial prognosis did not “look good.”
Gardner Minshew replaced Mahomes and purports to be Kansas City’s starter for the final three games of the season.
Contributing: Jacob Camenker
All the NFL news on and off the field. Sign up for USA TODAY’s 4th and Monday newsletter. Check out the latest edition: Recapping the carnage of Week 15.
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Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City Chiefs facing rebuild after missing NFL playoffs for first time since 2014
The NFL playoffs and the road to the Super Bowl will not feature the Kansas City Chiefs for the first time since 2014 this season. Does it mark the end of an era for one of the league’s great modern dynasty teams?
Andy Reid’s side were officially eliminated from playoff contention on Sunday following a 16-13 defeat to the Los Angeles Chargers, coupled with deciding victories for the Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans.
A miserable season was punctuated by a late injury to star quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who was later ruled out for the remainder of the campaign with a torn ACL that will now disrupt preparations heading into next season.
Having reached five of the last six Super Bowls, the Chiefs face uncharted territory in the offseason.
“You look over the years, there’s a multitude of things (contributing to their downfall),” says Sky Sports NFL’s Phoebe Schecter. “They’ve had longer seasons than any other team and X amount of games every single year, emotionally, mentally, physically it’s taxing on a player.
“The Chiefs have never fully invested back into who they are drafting, free agency, they don’t have a ton of star receivers, you’re relying on people like Travis Kelce.
“There’s a lot of rebuilding that has to happen.
“It’s hard when you compare to a team like the Eagles, who are constantly staying ahead of it and building depth – I don’t think they’ve had a star receiver since Tyreek Hill.”
The Chiefs had entered the campaign on the back of reaching three straight Super Bowls, winning two in a row before being dismantled by the Philadelphia Eagles in New Orleans last February.
A shortage of star quality or reinvestment in as much was evident that day at the Superdome, and has emerged as a prevalent talking point in the decline of a team and, in particular, an offense that once looked untouchable.
“This is maybe the end of the first iteration of the Chiefs that we’ve seen,” said Sky Sports NFL’s Neil Reynolds. “This happened to Brady and the Patriots. They had a 10-year gap. Brady won three, ironically, his knee ligaments went, 10 years later they then won another three with New England.
“So this feels like the end of something with Kelce. Have the Chiefs in recent years failed Patrick Mahomes? Because I don’t know if they’ve got a number one wide receiver. They don’t have a star running back.
“I don’t want to play fantasy football, but that offense with George Pickens or Breece Hall in the backfield, I just wonder whether they have assumed Patrick Mahomes will bail them out, as he has done many times, and continue to do so, and it feels like they’ve run out of it this year.”
Mahomes endured, statistically, one of the worst seasons of his career on the way to the Super Bowl last year as the Chiefs largely leaned on Steve Spagnuolo’s defense to carry them through a series of one-score games.
The production has been marginally improved in 2025 but no less erratic or inconsistent, Mahomes constantly relied upon to create magic in the face of limited options.
“I think that’s true,” said Sky Sports NFL’s Jeff Reinebold. “I think that they have confidence in his ability to elevate everybody at the critical moments.
“I have such an appreciation for excellence. And sustained excellence is even held in a higher esteem to me because you know think about this, 2014 is a long time ago and it’s been that long that they’ve been in the playoffs every year and have been the team that you had to beat, so to have sustained excellence in a league that makes it just about as difficult as you can make it, maybe more difficult than any pro sports league, that is a credit to the Chiefs organisation, to Andy Reid, to Brett Veach.
“However, the reality is eventually it just runs out, you just run out of steam. You look at Kelce, he’s not the player that he once was, I thought he was really good today and competed his tail off but you know there are now guys that can match and make it really difficult.
“I agree about the receivers they’ve got, some guys with unique skill sets but I don’t know if they’ve got a true number one receiver.”
As defensive lineman Chris Jones took to the podium post-game, he had to ask reporters if the Chiefs were out of the playoffs. He didn’t know. Until it hit him.
The silence was deafening and a reflection of the unknown. This was a day that was always coming, and the reality of a major offseason shake-up hit.
“It’s hard to rebuild when you’ve been winning, it’s ‘what are we going to change?’,” said Sky Sports NFL’s Jason Bell.
“You have to get to the point where it falls apart and doesn’t work, but you never want to see Mahomes get hurt like that, it’s the worst-case scenario.”
After 10 straight playoff appearances, nine straight division titles and seven consecutive trips to the AFC Championship Game, the Chiefs’ dominance is no more.
Watch the 2025 NFL season live on Sky Sports, including every minute of the playoffs and Super Bowl LX; Get Sky Sports or stream with no contract on NOW.
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