China’s communist government moved last week to ban exports of three key energy minerals – gallium, germanium, and antimony – to the United States as tensions between the two world powers continue to escalate during the presidential transition period. The three minerals at play in this US/China trade war have a wide range of applications, including for the military, batteries, and renewable energy.

“In principle, the export of gallium, germanium, antimony, and superhard materials to the United States shall not be permitted,” the Chinese Commerce Ministry said in a written directive published December 3.

An Escalating US/China Trade War

China’s latest move to limit exports of rare earth and critical energy minerals with military applications to the US market came a day after the Biden administration announced enhanced semiconductor export controls specific to China, the third such crackdown in the past three years. The US limits will apply to 140 Chinese companies and will limit exports of the kinds of high-bandwidth chips that are crucial for development of AI applications for military and other purposes.

Biden Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said in a release that the latest move is intended to prevent China from “advancing its domestic semiconductor manufacturing system, which it will use to support its military modernization.”

The US has become self-sufficient in producing some of the minerals in question in times past. But the decision by policymakers and regulators in the US and other OECD nations to make the approval of new mines near-impossible starting in the 1970s put an end to that, enabling China to move to dominate the mining, processing, and supply chains for these key minerals over the last 40 years. As a result, these countries and others have become largely reliant on imports from China for their needs.

An Opportunity Related To Antimony

Where antimony is concerned, this could all be about to change. As a reference for those unfamiliar with this critical mineral, I detailed the myriad military and technological applications for antimony in a story published in May 2021. That is one of a series of stories I’ve written here since 2021 about the efforts by mining company Perpetua Resources to restart the mothballed Stibnite Mine in central Idaho.

Originally established as a gold mining operation in 1927, the Stibnite mine later discovered a large store of antimony, and was able to supply over 90% of the antimony – crucial to the production of tungsten steel – required by the US military during World War II. Output from the mine went into a gradual decline following the War, and it was mothballed in 1996. Recognizing a growing need for new domestic resources of antimony, Perpetua Resources acquired the mine and has been working for well over a decade now to obtain the federal state and federal permits needed to reopen its operations.

In addition to the again-rising needs of the military, antimony is also a critical ingredient in most modern technologies, including those critical to the success of electric vehicles and wind and solar power development. From a national security standpoint, it is now obviously problematic that the U.S. is now unable to supply the vast majority of its antimony needs. Perpetua Resources believes that, once reopened, the Stibnite Mine can provide up to 35% of US needs of this critical mineral.

In a timely coincidence of events, relief could be on the way. The U.S. Forest Service announced in September the publication of a draft record of decision (ROD) authorizing Perpetua to start up operations at the Stibnite mine. If all goes to schedule under the requirements of the Administrative Procedures Act, the final decision could come before the end of December.

Anticipating that positive outcome, and in response to the rising trade war between the US and China, Perpetua Resources announced Monday it has entered into a non-binding agreement with Sunshine Silver Mining & Refining to explore the potential for the domestic processing of the antimony recovered from he Stibnite mine.

“Stibnite gold project is the only identified domestic reserve of antimony, and with final federal decisions expected in a matter of weeks, Perpetua is ready to work with US companies to help secure domestic production of antimony,” Perpetua CEO Jon Cherry said.

A wise person once observed that timing is everything in life, and the looming completion of this complex permitting process related to the Stibnite Mine seems a prime example barring further delays. It could become a fortunate example of one door flying open as another closes.

But it is key to remember that the US has to this point been sourcing the vast majority of its antimony needs from China and that it will take months if not years to bring this single mine to full production. Then there’s the fact that antimony is but one of an array of rare earth and critical energy minerals for which similar supply issues will now exist in the wake of the Chinese embargo.

The Bottom Line: A Big Mess To Clean Up

As he ramped up his administration’s attempt to force a heavily subsidized energy transition on the American public in 2021, Joe Biden famously committed to mount a “whole of government effort” to secure new supply chains outside of Chinese domination for these mineral needs. To date, these efforts have been sporadic and largely unsuccessful. This reality, combined with this accelerating trade war between the US and China and the interminable state and federal permitting processes now threaten to fully stall an already slowing transition.

When he assumes office on January 20, President-elect Donald Trump and his appointees are going to have one big mess on their plate where these minerals are concerned unless this US/China trade war is quickly resolved.