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Trump's first term brought world-changing vaccine. His second could bring retreat

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Trump's first term brought world-changing vaccine. His second could bring retreat

President Trump once celebrated the COVID-19 vaccines released at the end of his first term as “one of the greatest achievements of mankind,” echoing the sentiments of mainstream medical officials who praised their rapid development as pivotal in combating the then-raging pandemic.

But as his second administration takes shape, some are sounding the alarm regarding Trump’s picks to lead major public health agencies, concerned that the nominees’ skepticism, if not hostility, toward vaccines could jeopardize the nation’s ability to respond to new or resurgent infectious threats.

There’s Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump’s pick to lead the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, who has called the COVID-19 vaccine the “deadliest vaccine ever made” and said that “there’s no vaccine that is, you know, safe and effective.”

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has contended that he’s not against vaccines, but has spread the myth that they commonly injure children and can cause autism.

(Morry Gash / Associated Press)

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Nominated to lead the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is Dr. Dave Weldon, a former congressman from Florida who has expressed skepticism of the safety of vaccines and promoted the discredited idea that a preservative, thimerosal, that has been used in some vaccines, or the measles, mumps and rubella vaccine — which has never used thimerosal — may be linked to autism.

Skepticism and outright conspiracy theories about vaccines are nothing new, and health officials have long warned about the potential pitfalls of such misinformation.

But now, some top doubters could be in the position to shape federal health policy.

While COVID is no longer the grave public health threat it once was, the disease spikes periodically — as it did this summer — and has continued to be responsible for the most hospitalizations and deaths of any respiratory disease nationally, with nearly 60,000 fatalities for the yearlong period that ended Sept. 30. And other infectious threats, be they whooping cough, measles or the latest strain of bird flu, continue to loom.

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“We really don’t want to return to the era where these vaccine-preventable diseases were frequent, and children were getting sick or hospitalized or even dying,” said Dr. Anne Schuchat, a former deputy director at the CDC, who served at the agency for more than three decades, starting in the Reagan administration. “We’ve been fortunate in the past couple decades to have high levels of vaccination and low levels of most of the diseases.”

Neither the Trump transition team, a spokesperson for Kennedy, nor Weldon answered requests for comment for this story.

Trump, who had his own brush with the coronavirus near the end of his first term, hailed the rapid development of the COVID vaccines as a “monumental national achievement” and celebrated the production of “a verifiably safe and effective vaccine.”

He continued in 2021 to promote COVID vaccines in interviews and at rallies, though he also said he didn’t support making the shots mandatory. That year alone, the World Health Organization estimates, the vaccines likely saved at least 14.4 million lives worldwide.

But even then, skepticism surrounding the shots was starting to take root — including among Trump’s supporters. A KFF survey found that 60% of Republicans who support his “Make America Great Again” agenda got at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine at some point. But by late 2023, another KFF survey found that 70% of self-identified MAGA Republicans were either not too confident or not at all confident in the safety of the COVID-19 vaccine.

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That same survey found that only 36% of Republicans were very or somewhat confident the COVID-19 vaccines are safe, compared with 54% of independents and 84% of Democrats.

Kennedy has contended he is not “anti-vaccine,” but his organization, the Children’s Health Defense, has questioned their safety. Kennedy himself has criticized what he sees as deficits in the science on vaccine safety and spread the myth that vaccines commonly injure children.

When asked by a documentary maker whether there were any vaccines in history that were a benefit to mankind, Kennedy replied: “I don’t know the answer to that.”

More recently, he has said he would not “take away anybody’s vaccines.”

But even if a vaccine isn’t taken away entirely, “you can just make it much harder for people to get,” said Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health and a former White House COVID-19 Response coordinator under President Biden.

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Dr. Ashish Jha gestures while speaking with a White House logo on the wall behind him

Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, said Robert F. Kennedy Jr. “consistently shows that he doesn’t believe in modern medicine, doesn’t believe in the scientific process that has led to these huge gains that we’ve had” in public health.

(Susan Walsh / Associated Press)

For instance, Jha said, newly appointed officials could demand randomized clinical trials for every annual update to the COVID vaccine — “even though we don’t do that for the flu vaccines.”

“If that is a new standard that they create, it probably will make it impossible for [updated] COVID vaccines to be available in time for the holiday season,” Jha said. “If they follow through on their own previous critiques, they may box themselves in and make it very, very hard for Americans to even get COVID vaccines.”

Kennedy has also advanced the baseless claim that thimerosal in vaccines can cause autism, which has been thoroughly discredited by scientists. Thimerosal has been removed from childhood vaccines since 2001, according to the CDC, and “research does not show any link between thimerosal and autism.” While it is still used in some flu vaccines, parents can request a formulation without the preservative for their children.

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Organizations like the American Academy of Pediatrics also say the MMR vaccine — which protects against measles, mumps and rubella and is a major target of the anti-vax movement — is safe.

Critics have also accused Kennedy of spreading misinformation regarding the safety of the measles vaccine in Samoa. The Associated Press reported that Kennedy traveled to the island nation in June 2019 and met with anti-vaccine activists before a severe outbreak that killed 83, mostly infants and children.

At the time, public health officials said anti-vaccine misinformation had made the nation vulnerable. Kennedy has denied playing a role in the outbreak, which he has characterized as “mild.” “I had nothing to do with people not vaccinating in Samoa. I never told anybody not to vaccinate,” Kennedy told an interviewer in the 2023 documentary “Shot in the Arm.”

In a video published by the New York Post in 2023, Kennedy floated the conspiracy theory that COVID-19 may have been engineered to avoid harming Jews and Chinese people. Critics called his comments antisemitic and anti-Asian.

In a social media post, Kennedy said “the insinuation” that “I am somehow antisemitic, is a disgusting fabrication.” In another post, Kennedy said he has “never, ever suggested that the COVID-19 virus was targeted to spare Jews” and asserted “that the U.S. and other governments are developing ethnically targeted bioweapons and that a 2021 study of the COVID-19 virus shows that COVID-19 appears to disproportionately affect certain races.”

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Some scientists have dismissed some of Kennedy’s assertions as absurd and not based in science.

“One of my biggest concerns about about him is the misinformation that he spreads around vaccination,” said Dr. Richard Besser, who served as acting CDC director during the initial response to the 2009 H1N1 “swine flu” pandemic and is now president and chief executive of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.

The Health and Human Services secretary plays a major role in setting health priorities for the nation — suggesting how much money various agencies should get, helping determine what is covered for people on Medicare or Medicaid, and having a say in what kind of public recommendations the agency issues, Besser said.

Kennedy “consistently shows that he doesn’t believe in modern medicine, doesn’t believe in the scientific process that has led to these huge gains that we’ve had” in public health, Jha said.

Dr. Scott Gottlieb, whom Trump appointed as commissioner of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration during his first term, said on CNBC that if Kennedy follows through on his rhetoric, “You’re going to see measles, mumps and rubella vaccination rates go down,” which he expects would result in large outbreaks. “For every 1,000 cases of measles that occur in children, there will be one death,” he added.

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Trump’s apparent skepticism toward some vaccine requirements — during the campaign he pledged to “not give one penny to any school that has a vaccine mandate” — is also raising alarm bells in some corners.

Making moves that would erode the share of schoolchildren receiving vaccines they have been getting for generations would “create health risks” for the community at large, said Dr. Mark Ghaly, former secretary of California’s Health and Human Services Agency.

Dr. Mark Ghaly smiling for a portrait beside his reflection in a window

“I can imagine that some states may be pushed into a corner” if federal funding for public health work is reduced, said Dr. Mark Ghaly, former secretary of California’s Health and Human Services Agency.

(Rich Pedroncelli / Associated Press)

If a policy scrapping federal funding at schools that enforce vaccination requirements for schoolchildren were enacted, some districts or states may have to make tough decisions. While most public schools largely rely on state and local funding, federal dollars flow to support certain programs, such as school lunches.

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California is a little less reliant on federal funding for public health work, but “I can imagine that some states may be pushed into a corner,” Ghaly said.

State and local health officials should also speak up if they see messaging from the federal government that amounts to misinformation, Jha said. “It is, I think, really critical for state and local public health officials to speak up and not cede the floor to federal officials, especially if those federal officials are not sort of sticking to where the scientific evidence is,” Jha said.

Different leadership at national health agencies could also affect the availability or cost of vaccines.

“Could they become harder to get? Could it become more expensive to get in some places? Maybe not in the first year or two, but down the road, absolutely,” Ghaly said.

The federal government’s childhood vaccination program, run out of the CDC with oversight from Health and Human Services, plays a major role in getting half the kids in America their childhood vaccines essentially for free, Jha said. If federal officials decide to gut the program, “a lot of poor kids are not going to have easy access to vaccines, which, of course, would be tragic and would put everybody at risk.”

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Other questions include whether future federal health officials would seek next fall to water down the CDC’s current recommendation that everyone age 6 months and up get vaccinated against COVID — and whether that would affect whether insurers cover the costs of vaccines.

One glimpse into a sharply different way of managing COVID vaccination recommendations is in Florida.

In a move at direct odds with the CDC and the Food and Drug Administration, Florida’s surgeon general, Dr. Joseph Ladapo, advised against getting mRNA COVID vaccinations this fall and suggested that healthcare providers look into a non-mRNA shot for the elderly and immunocompromised. The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines both use mRNA technology, while a different vaccine from Novavax does not.

Ladapo, a former professor at UCLA, is viewed favorably by some highly ranked Republicans, including Ron DeSantis, the Florida governor who appointed him. Just after the election, DeSantis urged Trump to appoint Ladapo as the next secretary of Health and Human Services.

The CDC and FDA have rebuked earlier claims by Ladapo, saying his suggestion that there was an increased risk of harmful, life-threatening side effects caused by the COVID-19 vaccines was “incorrect, misleading and could be harmful to the American public.” The letter said the FDA-approved COVID vaccines have met rigorous standards for safety and effectiveness.

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Jha said he thought some of Trump’s other administration picks were reasonable, including the nomination of Dr. Marty Makary, a surgical oncologist at Johns Hopkins University, to run the FDA.

Makary drew attention for a February 2021 op-ed in which he wrote he expected COVID-19 to be “mostly gone” by that April, a prediction that failed to materialize. Later that year, he criticized federal recommendations to have 16- and 17-year-olds receive a COVID-19 vaccine booster, citing a lack of supporting clinical data. In early 2022, he criticized experts who he said discounted infection-derived immunity to COVID.

Jha said he disagrees with Makary on a number of topics — such as, in his view, discounting the value of COVID vaccinations in kids. The difference between Kennedy and Makary, Jha said, is that Makary’s views “are within the range of medical professionals who believe in modern medicine, who can disagree honestly.”

Among Trump’s other picks Jha said he considered reasonable was Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, a Stanford University health policy professor and economist who was critical of pandemic lockdowns, and offered pandemic policy advice to Florida. Nominated to run the National Institutes of Health, Bhattacharya supported a pandemic response called “focused protection” — protecting those at highest risk of death while allowing others to “live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection.”

“I think some of his ideas and recommendations during the pandemic were really problematic and caused a lot of suffering,” Jha said of Bhattacharya, adding that no state was able to implement “focused protection” and that “lots of Floridians died.”

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But, Jha added, “If the question is — is he qualified? This is a guy who has an MD, PhD at Stanford … he’s got a very broad body of work, mostly in health economics … He’s very smart, very experienced.”

Science

A retired teacher found some seahorses off Long Beach. Then he built a secret world for them

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A retired teacher found some seahorses off Long Beach. Then he built a secret world for them

Rog Hanson emerges from the coastal waters, pulls a diving regulator out of his mouth and pushes a scuba mask down around his neck.

“Did you see her?” he says. “Did you see Bathsheba?”

On this quiet Wednesday morning, a paddle boarder glides silently through the surf off Long Beach. Two stick-legged whimbrels plunge their long curved beaks into the sand, hunting for crabs.

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But Hanson, 68, is enchanted by what lies hidden beneath the water. Today he took a visitor on a tour of the secret world he built from palm fronds and pine branches at the bottom of the bay: his very own seahorse city.

The visitor confirms that she did see Bathsheba, an 11-inch-long orange Pacific seahorse, and a grin spreads across Hanson’s broad face.

“Isn’t she beautiful?” he says. “She’s our supermodel.”

If you get Hanson talking about his seahorses, he’ll tell you exactly how many times he’s seen them (997), who is dating whom, and describe their personalities with intimate familiarity. Bathsheba is stoic, Daphne a runner. Deep Blue is chill.

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He will also tell you that getting to know these strange, almost mythical beings has profoundly affected his life.

“I swear, it has made me a better human being,” he says. “On land I’m very C-minus, but underwater, I’m Mensa.”

Hanson is a retired schoolteacher, not a scientist, but experts say he probably has spent more time with Pacific seahorses, also known as Hippocampus ingens, than anyone on Earth.

“To my knowledge, he is the only person tracking ingens directly,” says Amanda Vincent, a professor at the University of British Columbia and director of the marine conservation group Project Seahorse. “Many people love seahorses, but Roger’s absorption with them is definitely distinctive. There’s a degree of warm obsession there, perhaps.”

Rog Hanson posing in his gear on the beach.

Rog Hanson keeps watch over a small colony of Pacific seahorses.

(Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times)

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Over the last three years, Hanson has made the two-hour trek from his home in Moreno Valley to the industrial shoreline of Long Beach to visit his “kids” about every five days. To avoid traffic, he often leaves at 2 a.m. and then sleeps in his car when he arrives.

He keeps three tanks of air and his scuba gear in the trunk of his 2009 Kia Rio. A toothbrush and a pair of pink leopard print reading glasses rest on the dash.

Hanson makes careful notes after all his dives in a colorful handmade log book he stores in a three-ring binder. On this Wednesday he dutifully records the water temperature (62 degrees), the length of the dive (58 minutes), the greatest depth (15 feet) and visibility (3 feet), as well as the precise location of each seahorse. His notes also include phase of the moon, the tidal currents and the strength of the UV rays.

“Scientists will tell you that sunlight is an important statistic to keep down,” he says.

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He has given each of his four seahorses a unique logo that he draws with markers in his log book. Bathsheba’s is a purple star outlined in red, Daphne’s is a brown striped star in a yellow circle.

A detailed log of seahorse sightings written in a notebook with colorful inks.

Rog Hanson makes careful notes after all his dives. He has given each of his four seahorses a unique logo.

(Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times)

He’s learned that the seahorses don’t like it when he hovers nearby for too long. Now he limits his interactions with them to 15 to 30 seconds at a time.

“At first I bugged them too much,” he says. “I was the paparazzi swimming around.”

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Hanson traces the origins of his seahorse story back nearly two decades to the early morning of Dec. 30, 2000.

He was diving solo off Shaw’s Cove in Laguna Beach when a slow-moving giant emerged from the abyss. It was a gray whale whose 40-foot frame cast Hanson in shadow.

The whale could have killed him with a flick of its tail, Hanson says, but he felt no fear. The two made eye contact and, as Hanson tells it, he felt the whale’s gaze peering directly into his soul.

It was all over in 10 seconds, but Hanson was altered. He had always wanted to live at the beach, but after this encounter, he vowed to make it happen. It took years —15, in fact — but he finally got a job as a special education teacher in the Long Beach public school system. He bought a van and parked it on Ocean Boulevard. He lived at the beach and dived every day for 3½ months before moving to Moreno Valley.

To amuse himself while he lived at the beach, he built an underwater city he called Littleville out of discarded toys he found at the bottom of the bay.

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Hanson saw his first seahorse in January 2016 while checking on Littleville. It was bright orange, just 4.5 inches long, and Hanson, who had logged over a thousand dives in the area, knew it didn’t belong there.

A red seahorse surrounded by sealife under water.

Daphne is one of the seahorses that Rog Hanson is studying in Alamitos Bay.

(Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times)

The range of the Pacific seahorse is generally thought to extend from Peru to as far north as San Diego. This seahorse ended up about 100 miles north of that.

Scientists said the seahorse and others that joined her had probably ridden an unusual pulse of warm water up the coast, along with other animals generally found in southern waters.

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“We were getting a lot of weird sightings in the fall of 2015,” says Sandy Trautwein, vice president of husbandry at the Aquarium of the Pacific. “There was a yellow-bellied sea snake, bluefin tuna, marlin, whale sharks — a lot of animals associated with warm water.”

Most of these animals eventually left after ocean temperatures returned to normal, but Hanson’s seahorses stayed.

That may be because Hanson had built them a home.

It happened like this: In June 2016 he watched in horror as more than 100 high school football players splashed in the shallow waters, right where his seahorses usually hung out.

“I thought, I gotta do something, I gotta do something,” he says.

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“On land I’m very C-minus, but underwater, I’m Mensa.”

— Rog Hanson

Then he remembered that, back in the Midwest where he grew up, he used to help the city park service make “fish cribs.” In early spring they would use brush and twigs to build what looked like a miniature log cabin with no roof on an ice-covered lake. When the ice melted, the cribs would fall to the bottom, creating a habitat for fish and other animals.

“So I said to myself, build them a city that’s deeper, where feet can’t get to it even at low tide,” Hanson says.

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And he did.

By July 2016 two pairs of seahorses had moved into the new habitat. Daphne, the runner, was named after the nymph from Greek mythology who flees Apollo, Kenny’s name came from the proprietor of a local kayaking company. “Bathsheba” was inspired by a Bible story, and her mate, Deep Blue, named after a dive shop that has helped sponsor Hanson’s work since he launched his seahorse study.

He’s seen Kenny’s and Deep Blue’s bellies swell with pregnancy and noted how their partners check in on them daily, frequently standing sentinel nearby. He’s visited the fish at odd hours to see how their behavior changes from morning to night. And he mourned when Kenny disappeared in January. He still hasn’t come back. (A new member, CD Street, arrived June 29.)

“It feels like I’m reading a book, the book of their life, and I can’t put it down,” he says.

He’s also reached out to seahorse scientists across the globe to compare notes. “I won’t say I know the most about seahorses in the world, but I know the people who do,” he says.

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Amanda Vincent, the director of Project Seahorse, says that seahorses spark an emotional reaction in almost everyone.

Daphne is one of the seahorses that Rog Hanson is studying in Alamitos Bay.

Daphne is one of the seahorses that Rog Hanson is studying in Alamitos Bay. Hanson and Ashley Arnold keep watch over a small colony of Pacific seahorses.

(Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times)

“Remember those books with three flaps where you can mix the head of a giraffe with the body of a snake and the tail of a monkey? That’s what we’ve got here,” she says. “They appeal to the sense of fancy and wonder in us.”

When Mark Showalter, a planetary astronomer at the SETI Institute, recently discovered a moon orbiting Neptune, he named it Hippocamp in part because of his love of seahorses.

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“I’ve seen them in the wild and they are marvelously strange and interesting,” he says. “It’s a fish, but it doesn’t look anything like a fish.”

Pacific seahorses are among the largest members of the seahorse family. Males can grow up to 14 inches long, while females generally top out at about 11. They come in a variety of colors, including orange, maroon, brown and yellow. They are talented camouflagers that can alter the color of their exoskeleton to blend into their environment.

“I won’t say I know the most about seahorses in the world, but I know the people who do.”

But perhaps their most distinguishing characteristic is that they are the only known species in the animal kingdom to exhibit a true male pregnancy. Females deposit up to 1,500 eggs in the male’s pouch. The males incubate the eggs, providing nutrition and oxygen for the growing embryos. When the larval seahorses are ready to be released, he goes into labor — scientists call it “jackknifing” — pushing his trunk toward his tail.

After three years of observation, Hanson has collected new evidence about seahorse mating practices. His research suggests that although most seahorses are monogamous, a female will mate with two males if there are no other female seahorses around.

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He also found that males, who are in an almost constant state of pregnancy, tend to stick to an area about the size of a king-size mattress, while the females roam up to 150 feet from their home during a typical day.

Eventually, he may be able to help scientists answer another long-standing question: What is the lifespan of Pacific seahorses in the wild? Some researchers say about five years; others think it could be up to 12.

“It will be interesting to see what Roger finds out,” Vincent says.

In June 2017, about one year after Hanson began formally tracking the seahorses, he took on a partner: a young scuba instructor named Ashley Arnold.

Arnold, who has short red hair and a jocular vibe, is a former Army staff sergeant who served in Iraq and Afghanistan. She learned to dive as part of a program the Salt Lake City Veterans Affairs hospital offered to female veterans suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder and military sexual trauma. Arnold suffered from both. Diving became her salvation.

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Dive instructor Ashley Arnold sitting at the bed of a truck.

Dive instructor Ashley Arnold is a former Army staff sergeant who says that diving at least twice a week helps her deal with PTSD and MST.

(Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times)

“All the irritation on the surface disappears when you go under the water,” she says. “It’s like, ‘What was I concerned about?’ You forget about everything else. Nothing else matters.”

She used her GI Bill to pay for a scuba instructor course and to set up her own business. Now, she finds that if she dives at least twice a week and has a dog, she does not need to take medication.

“All the irritation on the surface disappears when you go under the water.”

— Ashley Arnold

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“That’s a pretty big statement in my opinion,” she says.

Arnold and Hanson met in June 2016 on a dive trip to Catalina. Hanson mentioned his seahorses. Arnold was intrigued, but still lived in Salt Lake City.

One year later, Arnold moved to Huntington Beach and gave Hanson a call.

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“I said, ‘Hey Roger, let’s chat. Any chance I could join you at the seahorses you talked about?’” she says. “And he decided I was acceptable.”

Now, Arnold and her boyfriend, Jake Fitzgerald, check in on the seahorses about once a week and help Roger rebuild the city he created for them.

Rog Hanson and Ashley Arnold posing in their gear on the beach.

Rog Hanson, 68, teamed up with dive instructor Ashley Arnold two years ago to keep watch over a small colony of Pacific seahorses.

(Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times)

“We call them our kids because we love them so much,” Arnold says.

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Hanson and Arnold are very protective of their seahorse family. They tell visitors to remove GPS tags from their photos. They swear them to secrecy.

There is little chance anyone would find Hanson’s seahorses without a guide. Also, diving in these waters off Long Beach can be a challenge.

The water is shallow. It’s hard to get your buoyancy right. A misplaced flipper kick can stir up blinding sand and silt.

But if Hanson wants to show you his underwater world, nothing will stop him. He will hold you firmly by the hand and guide you down to the forest he built at the bottom of the bay.

Rog Hanson rinses off Ashley Arnold in her gear on the beach.

Ashley Arnold, right, gets rinsed off with a hose by Rog Hanson after a dive Alamitos Bay.

(Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times)

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He will use a plastic tent stake, jabbing it into the bottom to propel himself — and you holding on — across the ocean floor. When he spots a seahorse he will use the stake as a pointer. Through the murky water you strain to see. Then it appears.

Orange and rigid. Thin snout. Bony plates. Stripes down the torso. Totally still.

And if you’ve never seen a seahorse in the wild before, you will feel honored and awed, as if you’ve just seen a unicorn beneath the sea.

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California’s summer COVID wave shows signs of waning. What are the numbers in your community?

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California’s summer COVID wave shows signs of waning. What are the numbers in your community?

There are some encouraging signs that California’s summer COVID wave might be leveling off.

That’s not to say the seasonal spike is in the rearview mirror just yet, however. Coronavirus levels in California’s wastewater remain “very high,” according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, as they are in much of the country.

But while some COVID indicators are rising in the Golden State, others are starting to fall — a hint that the summer wave may soon start to decline.

Statewide, the rate at which coronavirus lab tests are coming back positive was 11.72% for the week that ended Sept. 6, the highest so far this season, and up from 10.8% the prior week. Still, viral levels in wastewater are significantly lower than during last summer’s peak.

The latest COVID hospital admission rate was 3.9 hospitalizations for every 100,000 residents. That’s a slight decline from 4.14 the prior week. Overall, COVID hospitalizations remain low statewide, particularly compared with earlier surges.

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The number of newly admitted COVID hospital patients has declined slightly in Los Angeles County and Santa Clara County, but ticked up slightly up in Orange County. In San Francisco, some doctors believe the summer COVID wave is cresting.

“There are a few more people in the hospitals, but I think it’s less than last summer,” said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, a UC San Francisco infectious diseases expert. “I feel like we are at a plateau.”

Those who are being hospitalized tend to be older people who didn’t get immunized against COVID within the last year, Chin-Hong said, and some have a secondary infection known as superimposed bacterial pneumonia.

Los Angeles County

In L.A. County, there are hints that COVID activity is either peaking or starting to decline. Viral levels in local wastewater are still rising, but the test positivity rate is declining.

For the week that ended Sept. 6, 12.2% of wastewater samples tested for COVID in the county were positive, down from 15.9% the prior week.

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“Many indicators of COVID-19 activity in L.A. County declined in this week’s data,” the L.A. County Department of Public Health told The Times on Friday. “While it’s too early to know if we have passed the summer peak of COVID-19 activity this season, this suggests community transmission is slowing.”

Orange County

In Orange County, “we appear to be in the middle of a wave right now,” said Dr. Christopher Zimmerman, deputy medical director of the county’s Communicable Disease Control Division.

The test positivity rate has plateaued in recent weeks — it was 15.3% for the week that ended Sept. 6, up from 12.9% the prior week, but down from 17.9% the week before that.

COVID is still prompting people to seek urgent medical care, however. Countywide, 2.9% of emergency room visits were for COVID-like illness for the week that ended Sept. 6, the highest level this year, and up from 2.6% for the week that ended Aug. 30.

San Diego County

For the week that ended Sept. 6, 14.1% of coronavirus lab tests in San Diego County were positive for infection. That’s down from 15.5% the prior week, and 16.1% for the week that ended Aug. 23.

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Ventura County

COVID is also still sending people to the emergency room in Ventura County. Countywide, 1.73% of ER patients for the week that ended Sept. 12 were there to seek treatment for COVID, up from 1.46% the prior week.

San Francisco

In San Francisco, the test positivity rate was 7.5% for the week that ended Sept. 7, down from 8.4% for the week that ended Aug. 31.

“COVID-19 activity in San Francisco remains elevated, but not as high as the previous summer’s peaks,” the local Department of Public Health said.

Silicon Valley

In Santa Clara County, the coronavirus remains at a “high” level in the sewershed of San José and Palo Alto.

Roughly 1.3% of ER visits for the week that ended Sunday were attributed to COVID in Santa Clara County, down from the prior week’s figure of 2%.

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Early adopters of ‘zone zero’ fared better in L.A. County fires, insurance-backed investigation finds

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Early adopters of ‘zone zero’ fared better in L.A. County fires, insurance-backed investigation finds

As the Eaton and Palisades fires rapidly jumped between tightly packed houses, the proactive steps some residents took to retrofit their homes with fire-resistant building materials and to clear flammable brush became a significant indicator of a home’s fate.

Early adopters who cleared vegetation and flammable materials within the first five feet of their houses’ walls — in line with draft rules for the state’s hotly debated “zone zero” regulations — fared better than those who didn’t, an on-the-ground investigation from the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety published Wednesday found.

Over a week in January, while the fires were still burning, the insurance team inspected more than 250 damaged, destroyed and unscathed homes in Altadena and Pacific Palisades.

On properties where the majority of zone zero land was covered in vegetation and flammable materials, the fires destroyed 27% of homes; On properties with less than a quarter of zone zero covered, only 9% were destroyed.

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The Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety, an independent research nonprofit funded by the insurance industry, performed similar investigations for Colorado’s 2012 Waldo Canyon fire, Hawaii’s 2023 Lahaina fire and California’s Tubbs, Camp and Woolsey fires of 2017 and 2018.

While a handful of recent studies have found homes with sparse vegetation in zone zero were more likely to survive fires, skeptics say it does not yet amount to a scientific consensus.

Travis Longcore, senior associate director and an adjunct professor at the UCLA Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, cautioned that the insurance nonprofit’s results are only exploratory: The team did not analyze whether other factors, such as the age of the homes, were influencing their zone zero analysis, and how the nonprofit characterizes zone zero for its report, he noted, does not exactly mirror California’s draft regulations.

Meanwhile, Michael Gollner, an associate professor of mechanical engineering at UC Berkeley who studies how wildfires destroy and damage homes, noted that the nonprofit’s sample does not perfectly represent the entire burn areas, since the group focused specifically on damaged properties and were constrained by the active firefight.

Nonetheless, the nonprofit’s findings help tie together growing evidence of zone zero’s effectiveness from tests in the lab — aimed at identifying the pathways fire can use to enter a home — with the real-world analyses of which measures protected homes in wildfires, Gollner said.

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A recent study from Gollner looking at more than 47,000 structures in five major California fires (which did not include the Eaton and Palisades fires) found that of the properties that removed vegetation from zone zero, 37% survived, compared with 20% that did not.

Once a fire spills from the wildlands into an urban area, homes become the primary fuel. When a home catches fire, it increases the chance nearby homes burn, too. That is especially true when homes are tightly packed.

When looking at California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection data for the entirety of the two fires, the insurance team found that “hardened” homes in Altadena and the Palisades that had noncombustable roofs, fire-resistant siding, double-pane windows and closed eaves survived undamaged at least 66% of the time, if they were at least 20 feet away from other structures.

But when the distance was less than 10 feet, only 45% of the hardened homes escaped with no damage.

“The spacing between structures, it’s the most definitive way to differentiate what survives and what doesn’t,” said Roy Wright, president and chief executive of the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety. At the same time, said Wright, “it’s not feasible to change that.”

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Looking at steps that residents are more likely to be able to take, the insurance nonprofit found that the best approach is for homeowners to apply however many home hardening and defensible space measures that they can. Each one can shave a few percentage points off the risk of a home burning, and combined, the effect can be significant.

As for zone zero, the insurance team found a number of examples of how vegetation and flammable materials near a home could aid the destruction of a property.

At one home, embers appeared to have ignited some hedges a few feet away from the structure. That heat was enough to shatter a single pane window, creating the perfect opportunity for embers to enter and burn the house from the inside out. It miraculously survived.

At others, embers from the blazes landed on trash and recycling bins close to the houses, sometimes burning holes through the plastic lids and igniting the material inside. In one instance, the fire in the bin spread to a nearby garage door, but the house was spared.

Wooden decks and fences were also common accomplices that helped embers ignite a structure.

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California’s current zone zero draft regulations take some of those risks into account. They prohibit wooden fences within the first five feet of a home; the state’s zone zero committee is also considering whether to prohibit virtually all vegetation in the zone or to just limit it (regardless, well-maintained trees are allowed).

On the other hand, the draft regulations do not prohibit keeping trash bins in the zone, which the committee determined would be difficult to enforce. They also do not mandate homeowners replace wooden decks.

The controversy around the draft regulations center around the proposal to remove virtually all healthy vegetation, including shrubs and grasses, from the zone.

Critics argue that, given the financial burden zone zero would place on homeowners, the state should instead focus on measures with lower costs and a significant proven benefit.

“A focus on vegetation is misguided,” said David Lefkowith, president of the Mandeville Canyon Assn.

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At its most recent zone zero meeting, the Board of Forestry and Fire Protection directed staff to further research the draft regulations’ affordability.

“As the Board and subcommittee consider which set of options best balance safety, urgency, and public feasibility, we are also shifting our focus to implementation and looking to state leaders to identify resources for delivering on this first-in-the-nation regulation,” Tony Andersen, executive officer of the board, said in a statement. “The need is urgent, but we also want to invest the time necessary to get this right.”

Home hardening and defensible space are just two of many strategies used to protect lives and property. The insurance team suspects that many of the close calls they studied in the field — homes that almost burned but didn’t — ultimately survived thanks to firefighters who stepped in. Wildfire experts also recommend programs to prevent ignitions in the first place and to manage wildlands to prevent intense spread of a fire that does ignite.

For Wright, the report is a reminder of the importance of community. The fate of any individual home is tied to that of those nearby — it takes a whole neighborhood hardening their homes and maintaining their lawns to reach herd immunity protection against fire’s contagious spread.

“When there is collective action, it changes the outcomes,” Wright said. “Wildfire is insidious. It doesn’t stop at the fence line.”

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